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Dutch voters struck a blow against the E.U.’s Ukrainian association agreement – and the incessant Russia-bashing that has surrounded it – creating hope for less belligerence in Europe, writes Gilbert Doctorow.

On this overcast Thursday morning in Brussels, the political capital of Europe, rays of bright sunshine are breaking through from the east as the latest results of vote counting in neighboring Netherlands suggest that Wednesday’s referendum against the European Union’s Association Agreement with Ukraine won two out of every three votes and passed the 30 percent participation requirement of all eligible voters to be considered valid.

If those results are confirmed by the official results – to be released on April 12 – this referendum marks a resounding defeat for the Brussels-led conspiracy to pursue Russia-bashing policies of sanctions and information warfare without consulting public opinion at home.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte

To change metaphors and speak in terms of Dutch folklore, it is the first crack in the dam that many of us have been waiting for, the opportunity for common sense to prevail over the illogic, hubris and plain pigheadedness of those who control the E.U. institutions in Brussels, and afar from Berlin and Washington.

While the referendum was formally just “advisory,” both the public statements of parliamentarians and the acknowledgements of the Dutch government ahead of the voting indicated that it will force a new vote in parliament on ratification and likely send Prime Minister Mark Rutte to Brussels. hat in hand, requesting a renegotiation of the Association Agreement.

As such, it may bring the E.U. foreign policy machinery to a shuddering halt and open the illogic of all its policies towards its eastern borderlands over the past several years to public scrutiny and, possibly, to revision.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Dutch Referendum May Have Unleashed European “Continental Crisis”

April 6, 2016

Dutch Referendum May Have Unleashed European “Continental Crisis”

In early January, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker warned that a Dutch advisory referendum, which took place today, on the bloc’s association agreement with Ukraine could lead to a “continental crisis” if voters reject the treaty.

In an interview in January for Dutch daily NRC Handelsblad, Juncker said Russia would “pluck the fruits” of a vote in the Netherlands against deepened ties between the European Union and Ukraine. “I want the Dutch to understand that the importance of this question goes beyond the Netherlands,” NRC quoted Juncker as saying. “I don’t believe the Dutch will say no, because it would open the door to a big continental crisis.”

The reason why Jean-Claude “when it gets serious, you have to lie” Juncker was so nervous, is that the vote, launched by anti-EU forces, is seen as test of the strength of Eurosceptics on the continent just three months before Britain votes on whether to stay in the European Union.

Fast forward to today when the vote just took place, and based on initial exit polls, Juncker was dead wrong. According to Reuters, in a rebuke for the government, which campaigned in favor of the EU-Ukraine association agreement, roughly 64 percent voted “No” and 36 percent said “Yes”.

As a reminder, the political, trade and defense treaty is already provisionally in place but has to be ratified by all 28 European Union member states for every part of it to have full legal force. The Netherlands is the only country that has not done so.

And, it appears, that in a big hit for those who had plotted the Ukraine ascension, the Dutch may have just frozen Ukraine dead in its tracks.

Eurosceptics had presented the referendum as a rare opportunity for their countrymen to cast a vote against the EU and the way it is run – including its open immigration policies.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The EU Has Bigger Trouble than Brexit alone

April 4, 2016

The EU Has Bigger Trouble than Brexit alone

Trouble brewing in the Netherlands

The referendum in the Netherlands on April 6th is going to cause a lot of trouble, possibly axing the strong Dutch commitment to the European project.

The plebiscite is about the Association Treaty between EU and Ukraine, into which the EU inserted some curious clauses about military cooperation and such. It is not a trading treaty per se, since those are the sole responsibility of the European Commission and would not require ratification by the member states.

Another fact that points toward bigger issues at stake is the last-minute involvement of the US government that recently urged Dutch voters to vote YES.

Although Parliament already ratified the Ukraine Treaty, it did so under the provision that under Dutch Law it might be open to a challenge by a plebiscite. The road to such a plebiscite is so difficult that it obviously was never meant to be possible. But the immensely popular Dutch anarcho-liberal blog Geen Stijl managed to gather 470,000 signatures, way more than the 350,000 required by law. A lot of signatures in a country with a total population of 17 million!

And it forced the government to organize the plebiscite.

Though the formal outcome is not binding, it seems unlikely that the ruling coalition will be able to even partially ignore its result. The coalition of Social Democrats and Liberals has only a fragile majority in parliament. With elections coming in March 2017, unless the government falls within the next two months, disregarding the result is a road to political disaster.

Polling consistently shows a halving of the liberal party and the annihilation of the Social Democrat party that might lose as much as three quarters of its current seats in parliament.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Netherlands Just Banned Weapon Sales to Saudi Arabia over Human Rights Abuses

March 17, 2016

The Netherlands Just Banned Weapon Sales to Saudi Arabia over Human Rights Abuses

Landmark bill cites UN figures that Saudi-led troops has killed nearly 6,000 people in Yemen—half of them civilians.

Dutch lawmakers have voted to ban weapons exports to Saudi Arabia over the kingdom’s violations of humanitarian law, making the Netherlands the first country in the European Union (EU) to follow through on a motion by the European Parliament in February.

The landmark resolution, approved on Tuesday, asks the Dutch government to impose a full arms embargo on Saudi Arabia, including dual-use exports that could be used to violate human rights. The bill cites United Nations figures that Saudi-led troops have killed nearly 6,000 people in Yemen—half of them civilians.

The bill also noted the Saudi government’s ongoing executions of its own citizens, many of them political dissidents.

The parliamentary vote puts additional pressure on other EU governments, such as Britain and France—Saudi Arabia’s core suppliers of weapons, in addition to the U.S.—to enact a similar ban. According to the Campaign Against Arms Trade (CAAT), the UK has sold about $9.4 billion (£6.7 billion) in weapons to the Saudi government under Prime Minister David Cameron’s administration.

“Saudi Arabia has a terrible human rights record and governments like the UK must stop supporting it,” Andrew Smith, CAAT spokesperson, told TheIndependent on Wednesday. “The bombardment of Yemen has lasted almost a year now and the humanitarian situation is desperate.”

“The Dutch parliament has set an important precedent and it’s time for other arms dealing governments to do the same,” Smith said. “The decision can’t just be temporary though, it must be permanent.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

World Trade Collapses Most Since Crisis

February 26, 2016

World Trade Collapses Most Since Crisis

One question now dominates the global macro discussion: has subdued global growth and trade become the norm in the post-crisis world?

That is, have lackluster growth and trade become structural and endemic rather than transient and cyclical?

Those are the burning questions that keep central bankers (not to mention sellside economists) up at night and they are front and center at the G-20 in Shanghai.

Warning signs abound. The Baltic Dry is in a veritable free fall. Germany’s manufacturing juggernaut is showing signs of faltering. The BRICS have ceased to be a reliable driver of global growth. US freight volumes are falling for the first time in years. And the list goes on.

“We have seen this burst of globalization, and now we’re at a point of consolidation, maybe retrenchment,” WTO chief economist Robert Koopman said last autumn. “It’s almost like the timing belt on the global growth engine is a bit off or the cylinders are not firing as they should.”

As we noted earlier this month, to the extent Maersk is a bellwether, things are looking pretty grim. Maersk Line – the company’s golden goose and the world’s largest container operator – racked up $182 million in red ink last quarter and the outlook for 2016 isn’t pretty either. The company now sees demand for seaborne container transportation rising a meager 1-3% for the year.

On Thursday we got the latest evidence that the wheels are falling off. According to new data from the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis’s World Trade Monitor, global trade (defined as the value of goods that crossed international borders) plunged nearly 14% in 2015.

That’s the first contraction since 2009.

“The new data released on Thursday represent the first snapshot of global trade for 2015,” FT notes. “But the figures also come amid growing concerns that 2016 is already shaping up to be more fraught with dangers for the global economy than previously expected.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Final MH17 crash report ‘unsubstantiated, inaccurate,’ new Russian probe says

January 14, 2016

Final MH17 crash report ‘unsubstantiated, inaccurate,’ new Russian probe says

The reconstructed airplane serves as a backdrop during the presentation of the final report into the crash of July 2014 of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine, in Gilze Rijen, the Netherlands, October 13, 2015. © Michael Kooren

Some of the key conclusions of the Dutch Safety Board’s final report on the Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 crash were ‘unsubstantiated and inaccurate,’ Russia’s aviation agency said in a letter to its counterpart in the Netherlands, citing new research.

Since the final report, released on October 13, 2015, did not reflect many important facts mentioned by the Russian side, the country’s experts continued their investigation into the reasons for the crash, Oleg Storchevoy, deputy head of Rosaviatsiya, wrote in a letter addressed to leadership of the Dutch Safety Board (DSB).

The Dutch side confirmed on Thursday receiving Storchevoy’s letter and said they would study it and reply as soon as possible.

Flight MH17 crashed in the war-torn Donetsk Region in eastern Ukraine on July 17, 2014, killing all 298 passengers and crew on board.

According to the DSB’s findings, the Boeing 777 was shot down by a Russian-made Buk missile with a 9N314M warhead. However, the Dutch experts were unable to determine which side in the conflict – the Ukrainian government forces or the rebels – was responsible for firing the missile.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Withdrawals Of Gold From NY Fed Jump To 20 Tons In September, Total 276 Tons Since 2014

October 31, 2015

Withdrawals Of Gold From NY Fed Jump To 20 Tons In September, Total 276 Tons Since 2014

First it was Germany who redeemed 120 tons of physical gold in 2014; then it was the Netherlands who “secretly” redomiciled 122 tons of gold; then this past May, we learned that Austria would be the third “core” European nation to repatriate most of its offshore gold, held primarily in the Bank of England, redepositing it in Vienna and Switzerland.

Thanks to the latest NY Fed data released yesterday, we now know that beginning in 2014 and continuing through yesterday, the gold “bleeding” from the vault located 90 feet below street level at 33 Liberty Street (and which may or may not be connected by a tunnel to the JPM gold vault located just across the street at 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza) is not only continuing but accelerating.

As the chart below shows, while central banks assure the population that there is nothing to worry about when it comes to paper money, and in fact it is the evil ISIS terrorists who plot and scheme to crush the benevolent Fed with their terroristy “gold dinars” and if not that then their made in Hollywood propaganda movies, they have been quietly pulling gold from the biggest centralized depository of global gold in the world: the New York Federal Reserve.

According to the latest just released monthly update of foreign official assets held in custody at the NY Fed, in July the total holdings of foreign earmarked, i.e., physical, gold declined to just over $8 billion when evaluated at the legacy “price” of $42.22 per ounce. In ton terms, this means that after declining below 6000 tons in January, for the first time since FDR’s infamous gold confiscation spree…

… the total physical gold held at the NY Fed dropped another 19.9 tons in September, down to 5,919.5 tons.

This was a doubling in gold withdrawals from 10 tons in August, and
is the highest withdrawal since January.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Saudis Poke The Russian Bear, Start Oil War In Eastern Europe

October 18, 2015

Saudis Poke The Russian Bear, Start Oil War In Eastern Europe

Any weakening of Russian support for Mr. Assad could be one of the first signs that the recent tumult in the oil market is having an impact on global statecraft. Saudi officials have said publicly that the price of oil reflects only global supply and demand, and they have insisted that Saudi Arabia will not let geopolitics drive its economic agenda. But they believe that there could be ancillary diplomatic benefits to the country’s current strategy of allowing oil prices to stay low — including a chance to negotiate an exit for Mr. Assad.

That’s a quote from a New York Times article that ran in February of this year.

At the time, we pointed to the piece as evidence that yet another conspiracy “theory” has become conspiracy “fact” as it effectively served to validate (to the extent The New York Times is validation) the thesis that at the end of the day, this is all about energy.

If the Saudis could use oil prices to force Moscow into ceding support for Bashar al-Assad in Syria, then the West and its regional allies could get on with facilitating his ouster by way of arming and training rebels. Once Assad was gone, a puppet government could be installed (after some farce of an election that would invariably pit two Western-backed candidates against each other) then Riyadh, Doha, and Ankara could work with the new government in Damascus to craft energy deals that would not only be extremely lucrative for all involved, but would also help to break Gazprom’s iron grip on energy supplies to Europe.

Those are the “ancillary diplomatic benefits” mentioned in The Times piece.

Only it didn’t work out that way.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Great Greek Fudge

August 1, 2015

The Great Greek Fudge

A third Greek bailout involving loans from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the eurozone’s bailout scheme, is now being negotiated. The start was quite rocky, with haggling over the preciselocation in Athens where negotiations need to take place and Greek officials once again withholding information to creditors. Therefore, few still believe that it will be possible to conclude a deal in time for Greece to repay 3.2 billion euro to the ECB on 20 August. Several national Parliaments in the Eurozone would need to approve a final deal, which would necessitate calling their members back from recess around two weeks before the 20th, so it’s weird that French EU Commissioner Pierre Moscovici still seems so confident that the deadline can be met.

If indeed there is no deal, Greece is likely to request a second so-called “bridge loan” to allow it to pay the ECB, firmly within the Eurozone tradition of the creditor providing the debtor cash in order to pay back the creditor. France, which is most eager to keep Greece inside the Eurozone, is afraid that bilateral bridge loans from Eurozone countries wouldn’t be approved by the more critical member states, as this would risk France having to foot this bill on its own, perhaps with Italy. Not exactly a rosy prospect for socialist French President Hollande, who’s already struggling to contain the far right anti-euro formation Front National.

The only European fund practically available to provide a bridge loan is the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM), a fund created in May 2010, which has been raising 60 billion euro on the markets, with the EU’s €1 trillion Budget as collateral. The EFSM belongs not just to Eurozone member states, but to all EU member states.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Deal Struck Following Total Capitulation By Tsipras: Market Awaits Greek Reaction To Draconian Deal Terms

July 13, 2015

Deal Struck Following Total Capitulation By Tsipras: Market Awaits Greek Reaction To Draconian Deal Terms

Last night, when we concluded our overnight summary state of affairs we said that “we expect some resolution around first light this morning, and while another Greek can kicking and some last-moment “hope” is surely in the cards, we know two things: Greece is officially finished – there is no way the Tsipras or any other government can politically recover after such a humiliating spectacle when half of Europe made a mockery of the Greek people; and perhaps better, we finally have seen the true face of Europe: visible only when things are finally falling apart.”

Sure enough, just around 9am CET, after a 17-hour mammoth all-night session, Greece did manage to cobble together a “deal” if one may call this latest embarrassing can-kicking that, which was nothing short of total capitulation by Tsipras: a prime minister who 8 days ago was victorious cheering the passage of a referendum that rejected a far less draconian deal.

As part of the deal, Greece “surrendered to European demands for immediate action to qualify for up to 86 billion euros ($95 billion) of aid Greece needs to stay in the euro” as Bloomberg politely put it.

We would put it as follows: Greece agreed, at the cost of ceding its sovereignty to Europe, to allow the Troika to repay itself.

Worse, there is no actual deal term sheet on the table: while the summit agreement averted a worst-case outcome for Greece, it only established the basis for negotiations on an aid package, which would also include €25 billion euros to recapitalize its weakened financial system, money which would come from Greek asset sales.

The politicians were greatly relieved, perhaps most of all to be finally able to go to bed. Here is the statement by Euro president Donald Tusk:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Troika Says Greek Proposal Not Enough To Meet Targets, Serves As “Basis For Negotiations”

July 11, 2015

Troika Says Greek Proposal Not Enough To Meet Targets, Serves As “Basis For Negotiations”

Early on Saturday morning, the Tsipras government passed the Greek bailout proposal which it told the Greek people to reject – which they did – less than a week earlier. The grotesque farce continued until the very end when 15 Syriza lawmakers who voted yes said they nonetheless are against the reform package and expressed their opposition to the government’s proposal in a joint statement issued immediately after the vote in parliament.

Seemingly unclear how this “democracy” thing works in the country that supposedly invented it only to spawn its biggest mutant yet, the “dissenters” added that they voted for the proposal in order not to give an excuse for the undermining of Alexis Tsipras government. What they really meant is what the angry people finally crack down on yet another government, they hope to have a get out of jail card. Literally.

Other were far more vocal in their condemnation of the capitulation: Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis, Deputy Labour Minister Dimitris Stratoulis as well as the speaker of parliament, Zoe Constantopoulou, all called “Present”, in effect abstaining from the vote and withholding their support from the government. “The government is being totally blackmailed to acquiesce to something which does not reflect what it represents,” Constantopoulou said.

At the end of the vote, the Tsipras government narrowly escaped the loss of a parliamentary majority, as 17 Syriza lawmakers, which holds 149 seats in parliament, abstained, were absent or voted no. Among legislators who were absent were former Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis (who went on holiday earlier to his wife’s island vacation house), Speaker of Parliament Zoe Konstantopoulou (who penned the famous Greek “Odius Debt” declaration) and two cabinet ministers.

The ruling coalition’s parliamentary majority was saved by the deputies of the right-wing Independent Greeks, who hold 13 seats in parliament. Additionally the three opposition parties handed Tsipras the mandate to negotiate and bring back a debt deal.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Two Startling Victories for Global Sanity in One Week

July 2, 2015

Two Startling Victories for Global Sanity in One Week

Austerity doesn’t work. Dutch judge: Citizens are right, slash carbon emissions.

Two remarkable developments in the past week that could have a significant impact in many countries are worth a lot more attention in Canada and the United States.

First, a major research document published by five top economists at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) admitted that the strong pro-capitalist policies at the centre of its activities in developing countries for the past 30 years do not work.

One of the IMF’s main roles in recent years has been to bail out countries during financial crises. In return for loans, some 60 mostly poor countries have been forced to follow strict rules, such as privatizing government resources, deregulating controls to open markets to foreign investment, and restricting what they can spend in areas such as education and health care.

Now the paper, Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality: A Global Perspective, says there needs to be a shift and that greater income equality in both developing and developed countries should become a priority.

Dutch told to act on emissions

The other significant — but unrelated development — which received scant attention, concerns a ground-breaking decision by a judge in the Netherlands. He ordered the Netherlands government to slash greenhouse gas emissions by at least a remarkable 25 per cent by 2020.

The ruling came after almost 900 Dutch citizens, headed by the group Urgenda, took their government to court in April in a class action lawsuit to force a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to tackle climate change. Netherlands has been lagging behind other European countries in tackling climate change.

Significantly, the challenge was based, not on environmental law, but on human rights principles. Urgenda asked the courts to “declare that global warming of more than two degrees Celsius will lead to a violation of human rights worldwide.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Greece: Out Of Cash, Out Of Time, Out Of Options

June 4, 2015

Greece: Out Of Cash, Out Of Time, Out Of Options

On Friday Greece is due to pay at least a quarter of the €1.5bn due to the IMF in June.

…

The creditors say they will only disburse the money if the Greek government enacts various key economic reforms and does not roll back reforms the last government agreed with the lenders and if the Greek government undertakes to run large enough budget surpluses every year in the future that Greece might have a chance of paying back the money the creditors have lent it.

The Greek government says there is no possibility of it ever paying back all the money it has been lent and the creditors need to accept that, write off some of the debt, and not insist that Greece runs large surpluses (predicated on the fantasy of paying back the debt) or cuts back on pensions or enacts other similar measures that run contrary to the Greek voters’ will (as expressed in the last election).

Most commentary still appears predicated on the idea that there will be some last-minute deal – either because the creditors will back down and give Greece some more money without requiring it to be paid back or because the Greek government will back down if it understands that not doing so would ultimately mean leaving the euro.

I, on the other hand, don’t believe either side is particularly interested in achieving a deal.

The Eurozone does not want to make any compromise with the current Greek government because:

(a) they don’t believe they need to because Greek threats to leave the euro are empty both because internal polling suggests Greeks don’t want to leave and because if they did leave that doesn’t really constitute any threat to the euro;

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Quakes in Gas Fields Ignored for Years, Dutch Agency Finds

February 24, 2015

Quakes in Gas Fields Ignored for Years, Dutch Agency Finds

Safety board’s report a relevant read for any fracking zone.

A report from the Dutch Safety Board has accused the oil and gas industry and Netherlands Ministry of Economic Affairs of willfully downplaying the risk of earthquakes caused by the rapid depletion of Europe’s largest gas field.

The board’s conclusions offer lessons for other regions coping with earthquakes caused by fluid injection and hydraulic fracturing.

Ever since the shale gas industry changed the seismic record of states and provinces like Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas and British Columbia, many industry lobbyists and regulators have been quick to deny and dismiss citizen’s concerns about the seismic hazards.

The Groningen field, which lies under a 900 square-kilometre area in the northern part of the Netherlands, has been drained by a consortium — Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij, or NAM — jointly owned by Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell since the 1960s.

The Dutch government, a minor petrostate, is highly dependent on revenues from gas extraction, pulling in an average of 12 billion Euros or US$16.3 billion a year.

According to anti-drilling group De Groniger Doem Beweging (The Groningen Ground Movement), approximately 60 per cent of the 60,000 homeowners in the Groningen region have recorded earthquake damage to their homes over the last decade. Many homes now remain unsellable in the industry-made earthquake zone.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Currency Wars – Russia Buys 20.7 Tonnes Of Gold In December; Netherlands Refutes IMF Gold Data

January 27, 2015

Currency Wars – Russia Buys 20.7 Tonnes Of Gold In December; Netherlands Refutes IMF Gold Data

UPDATE: Since we published our blog this morning, the Dutch central bank has denied that it added to its gold reserves in December.

De Nederlandsche Bank, the Dutch central bank has denied reports in Reuters, Bloomberg and picked up by GoldCore, that the bank had increased its gold holdings for the first time in sixteen years. IMF data had shown that the Dutch had increased their holdings to 622.08 tonnes.

“De Nederlandsche Bank has not increased its gold holdings. Several media reported this Tuesday that based on IMF figures, DNB’s gold stock increased in December 2014. This is incorrect,” it said on its website.

The DNB’s correct and current gold holdings consist of 19.691 million troy ounces (612.5 tonnes), the tenth largest holder of the metal in the world, according to the World Gold Council’s January data.

We believe that it is only a matter of time before a European or other central bank begins to emulate China and Russia and starts accumulating gold. Today’s error may portend tomorrow’s reality. It is important to note that while Dutch central bank gold accumulation would have been a very significant development, Russia’s steady and robust accumulation of gold is very important. It came at a time when some analysts were suggesting and there was much chatter that Russia would sell gold reserves.

GOLDCORE’s BLOG THIS MORNING:
DUTCH AND RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK BUY 30 TONNES OF GOLD IN DECEMBER

Russia and surprisingly the Netherlands were the largest central bank buyers in December – accumulating a significant 30.34 tonnes between them as currency wars intensify.

Demand for gold as a diversification and monetary asset continues to be very robust and central banks remain net buyers of gold which should be supportive of prices.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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