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Gold’s return as money

Gold’s return as money

The consequences of Russia and her Asian allies embracing gold backing for their currencies are poorly understood in western capital markets. This move could lead to the destruction of the global fiat currency system.

According to evidence which is widely ignored in western capital markets, a move by Russia to put a new trade settlement currency and possibly the rouble as well onto a new gold standard is becoming a certainty. As a weapon of mass fiat currency destruction, the timing is probably bound up in on-the-ground military considerations, which are already showing signs of escalating in Eastern Ukraine.

As well as using gold to undermine the western currency system, a return to a credible gold standard has significant advantages for Russia and for her allies in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Eurasian Economic Union, BRICS+, and all their commodity suppliers beyond Asia. At the same time, it would destroy the west’s fiat currencies and financial system.

This article explains how one part of the global economy can thrive while the other collapses.

Introduction

Recently, I have written about the signals emanating from Russia that President Putin is minded to re-adopt sound money by returning to some sort of gold standard. We do not yet know the details, but consider what he said at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum in June last year:

“Caught in the inflationary storm, many nations are asking, why bother exchanging goods for dollars and euros when they are losing value right before our eyes? Indeed, the economy of imaginary wealth is being inevitably replaced by the economy of real valuables and hard assets.

“According to the IMF, today’s global foreign currency reserves contain 7.1 trillion dollars and 2.5 trillion euros. And this money is depreciating at an annual rate of about 8%…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Will Nuclear War, Debt Collapse or Energy Depletion Finish the World?

WILL NUCLEAR WAR, DEBT COLLAPSE OR ENERGY DEPLETION FINISH THE WORLD?

Fragility has probably never been greater in history. Just three words encapsulate the destiny of the world.

The THREE words are: WAR, DEBT, ENERGY

A FOURTH word will financially save the ones who understand its significance. It will also play a major role in the world’s future monetary system. The word is obviously GOLD. As the world moves from a fragile debt based Western system to a commodity and energy based system in the East and South, gold will assume a strategic role in the monetary system.

WAR – WWIII

War is obviously a potentially catastrophic threat since the sheer existence of the world and mankind is now at maximum risk. Wars are horrible whoever starts them. Since the beginning of mankind there have probably been over 100,000 important wars and conflicts.

Wars are horrible whoever starts them. Most wars end in major fatalities and injuries and a massive human and financial cost. And at the end of the war, the situation is often worse than when it started, like in for example Afghanistan, Vietnam, Iraq and Libya which countries the US invaded unprovoked. The same will most probably be the case in Ukraine.

There are always two sides to a war. I learnt many years ago that before we judge someone, we must walk three moon laps in his moccasins.

So let us first walk in Putin’s moccasins.

The whole West hates Russia and have personalised it to Putin. Few realise that many of the people behind Putin are extreme hardliners and much more dangerous. Historically, Ukraine (like many European countries) has had a motley existence. Since the late 1700s to 1991 Ukraine was part of Russia / Soviet Union with a brief interruption after the Bolshevik revolution in 1917.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Gold And The Shrinking Trust Horizon

Gold And The Shrinking Trust Horizon

Last week I posted an article on the implosion of the official vaccine narrative. That’s a controversial topic so not surprisingly it generated some heat on both sides. And a few readers expressed the wish that I’d stay in my lane (precious metals investing) and avoid venturing into unrelated and less well understood territory.

But believe it or not, the public health establishment losing its credibility is related to precious metals, via something called the trust horizon. It works like this: When things are good and the people in charge of big systems seem to be running them well, we’re content to trust the experts. We keep most of our money in banks, brokerage houses, and crypto wallets that exist for us only as websites. We buy produce that’s grown in a different hemisphere and shipped via boats, trains, and trucks to corporate chain grocery stores. We vaccinate ourselves and our kids according to the schedules set by the NIH or the CDC. We pop pills on our doctor’s orders without doing any research. We eat processed foods on the assumption that the FDA keeps them free of dangerous additives. And we believe what we see on cable news.

In other words, our trust horizon, defined as the distance from ourselves at which we’ll believe what we’re told, is global. We assume everything everywhere is working for our benefit and we’re thus willing to put our welfare in those distant hands.

But let some big systems fail to take proper care of us and we pull back, finding people and institutions closer to home that we can see and judge first-hand. We move our money out of distant banks and brokers and into local credit unions whose managers live down the street…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

As West, Debt & Stocks Implode, East Gold & Oil Will Explode

AS WEST, DEBT & STOCKS IMPLODE, EAST GOLD & OIL WILL EXPLODE 

“The risk of over-tightening by the European Central Bank is nothing less than catastrophic” says Prof Kenneth Rogoff .

At Davos he also said: “Italy is extremely vulnerable. But this could pop anywhere. Global debt has gone up massively since the pandemic: public debt, corporate debt, everything.”

Rogoff believes that it is a miracle that the world averted a financial crisis in 2022, but the odds of a major accident are shortening as the delayed effects of past tightening feed through.

As Rogoff said: “We were very fortunate that we didn’t have a global systemic event in 2022, and we can count our blessings for that, but rates are still going higher and the risk keeps rising.”

But lurking in the murkiness is also the global financial assets/liabilities which is almost $500 trillion including the shadow banking system at 46% of the total. The shadow banking sector includes  pension funds, hedge funds and other financial institutions which are largely unregulated.

oil

Shadow banking is not subject to the normal mark-to-market rules. Thus no one knows what the real position or losses are. This means that central banks are in the dark when it comes to evaluation of the real risks of the system.

Clearly, I am not the only one harping on about the catastrophic global debt/liability situation.

And no one knows the extent of total global derivatives. But if they have grown in line with debt and also with the shadow banking system, they could easily be in excess of $3 quadrillion.

oil

Cultures don’t die overnight, but the US has been in decline since at least the Vietnam war in the 1960s. Interestingly, the US has not had a real Budget surplus since the early 1930s with a handful of years of exception.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Gold Or Silver?

Gold Or Silver?

You want both, obviously, but how much of each and why?

At first glance, gold and silver seem pretty fungible. They’re both hypnotically pretty. Their prices tend to rise and fall according to the same financial/political forces. They’re both seen as real money by a tiny (very wise) fraction of the population and as atavistic relics by the vast, ignorant majority. And – most important – they will both preserve their owners’ purchasing power when today’s fiat currencies evaporate like the fever dreams they always were.

So you definitely want some (and maybe a lot) of each. But gold and silver are not identical. They have different strengths and weaknesses in various “monetary reset” scenarios. And their prices don’t move in lockstep. Sometimes one is cheap relative to the other.

So how much of each should we own now, and how quickly should we plan to load up the truck? The answer is different for each person, but a few things are generally true.

The gold/silver ratio
The relative prices of gold and silver tend to fluctuate within a broad but discernable range. This gold/silver ratio is expressed as the number of ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold and tends to rise and fall along with the emotional state of precious metals investors. When those investors don’t foresee imminent inflation or other monetary disruptions, they gravitate towards gold’s safety and stability, and shy away from silver’s volatility. Gold’s price rises relative to silver’s, producing a high gold/silver ratio.

When investors expect rising inflation or other kinds of currency instability, they buy precious metals generally, but gravitate towards silver’s greater upside potential. Gold and silver both rise but the gold/silver ratio falls as buyers push silver’s price up more quickly than gold’s.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Zoltan Pozsar, the Four Prices of Money, and the Coming Gold Bull Market

Zoltan Pozsar, the Four Prices of Money, and the Coming Gold Bull Market

Over the past 100 years there has been a correlation between major equity bear markets, adjustments in one of the four “prices of money,” and gold bull markets. If we let history be our guide, the current equity bear market is signaling a new gold bull market, supported by changes in the price of money.

gold bullWith equities in a bear market, and the Fed adjusting the price of money, we can expect a gold bull market in the coming years.

One of the more intriguing financial analysts of our times is Zoltan Pozsar, Managing Director and Global Head of Short-Term Interest Rate Strategy at Credit Suisse. In his writings of the past months, one of the things that caught my attention was his framework for multiple prices of money. Remarkably, when I looked up big historical changes in the price of the US dollar, they usually succeeded equity bear markets and introduced gold bull markets. Because equities are in a bear market as we speak, we can expect a gold bull market in the years ahead, enabled by the Federal Reserve changing the price of money.

First, let’s see how changes in the price of the dollar have caused gold bull markets in the past 100 years. Then we will add the stock market.

The Four Prices of Money and Previous Gold Bull Markets

Pozsar’s money framework, which he got from his intellectual mentor Perry Mehrling, states money has four prices:

1) Par, which is the price of different types of the same money. Cash, bank deposits, and money fund shares should always trade at a one-to-one ratio.
2) Interest rates, which is the price of future money.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Zoltan Pozsar’s Gold-mageddon Deconstructed

Zoltan Pozsar’s Gold-mageddon Deconstructed

“[B]anks have been managing their paper gold books with one assumption, which is that [Nation] states would ensure gold wouldn’t come back as a settlement medium.” -Zoltan Pozsar

Before we go any further, we read ZeroHedge’s report on this letter Dec 7th entitled: Zoltan Pozsar: Gold To Soar…When Putin Unveils Petrogold (ZH Prem) and have been  thinking on it since. Here is one of those thoughts pertaining to Gold’s  evolving  market structure

The statement at top is arguably the most important sentence in Zoltan’s recent post entitled: Oil, Gold ,and LCL(SP)RIt is how he closes that note.

If you have read his letter (excerpt below) you may prefer quotes pertaining to Gold’s price jump from $1800 to $3600 or Pozsar’s follow up statement to the price of Gold potentially doubling where he wrote:  Crazy? Yes. Improbable? No.

Those statements certainly are nice to read for real-money advocates; especially coming from one of the most respected economists on the street these days. We cannot lie it makes us smile as well.

However, for anyone with precious metals exposure, like a bank or presumably you reading this piece (thank you for that), the quote at top should rule them all. Here’s why…

Why Banks Short Gold

Zoltan, possibly inadvertently, gives readers the rationale by which banks have been profitably shorting Gold since the 1990s. Here is our translation of that same sentence at top.

Translated from the original Zoltanese:

Banks have been using rehypothecation for decades fearlessly with approval of global governments who promised them Gold would never be used as a settlement medium—i.e. have a practical use — again.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The “Barbarous Relic” Helped Enable a World More Civilized than Today’s

The “Barbarous Relic” Helped Enable a World More Civilized than Today’sgold coins

One of history’s greatest ironies is that gold detractors refer to the metal as the barbarous relic. In fact, the abandonment of gold has put civilization as we know it at risk of extinction.

The gold coin standard that had served Western economies so brilliantly throughout most of the nineteenth century hit a brick wall in 1914 and was never able to recover, or so the story goes. As the Great War began, Europe turned from prosperity to destruction, or more precisely, toward prosperity for some and destruction for the rest. The gold coin standard had to be ditched for such a prodigious undertaking.

If gold was money, and wars cost money, how was this even possible?

First, people were already in the habit of using money substitutes instead of money itself—banknotes instead of the gold coins they represented. People found it more convenient to carry paper around in their pockets than gold coins. Over time the paper itself came to be regarded as money, while gold became a clunky inconvenience from the old days.

Second, banks had been in the habit of issuing more bank-notes and deposits than the value of the gold in their vaults. On occasion, this practice would arouse public suspicion that the notes were promises the banks could not keep. The courts sided with the banks and allowed them to suspend note redemption while staying in business, thus strengthening the government-bank alliance. Since the courts ruled that deposits belonged to the banks, bankers could not be accused of embezzlement. The occasional bank runs that erupted were interpreted as a self-fulfilling prophecy. If people lined up to withdraw their money because they believed their bank was insolvent, the bank soon would be…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Zoltan Pozsar: Gold At $3,600 Is Not Improbable If US Refill Reserves With Russian Oil

In his latest dispatch, Credit Suisse contributor Zoltan Pozsar shifted focus on his ongoing series about Bretton Woods III where commodities will dictate the new world order.

Instead, the author zeroed in on the depleting Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) of the United States, posing the query of what comes next after the White House shipped its last scheduled release.

“Now that SPR releases are over, production cuts by OPEC+, re-routing [of Russian crude oil from Europe to Asia], and price caps (not to mention the risk of China re-opening due to protests), the question for the U.S, becomes what to do with the SPR? Release more? Refill?” pondered Pozsar.

Back in September, as well, US President Joe Biden’s administration said it is looking at refilling its oil reserves should crude oil prices drop below US$80 a barrel. The prices have traversed the levels below that said mark but the White House moved the price target lower in October after it announced its plan to release 15 million barrels of oil more.

“The Administration is announcing its intent to use SPR repurchases to add to global crude oil demand at times when the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is at or below about $67 to $72 per barrel,” the White House statement then read.

After the US Department of Energy sold the last batch of crude oil from the historic SPR release, the reserves continue to bleed in the hopes of managing rising inflation and local energy prices. The current level is now below the 400-million barrel-mark, poised to hit a nearly 4-decade low.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The Great Gold Robbery of 1933

The Great Gold Robbery of 1933

gold1

It’s been 75 years since the federal government, on the spurious grounds of fighting the Great Depression, ordered the confiscation of all monetary gold from Americans, permitting trivial amounts for ornamental or industrial use. This happens to be one of the episodes Kevin Gutzman and I describe in detail in our new book, Who Killed the Constitution? The Fate of American Liberty from World War I to George W. Bush. From the point of view of the typical American classroom, on the other hand, the incident may as well not have occurred.

A key piece of legislation in this story is the Emergency Banking Act of 1933, which Congress passed on March 9 without having read it and after only the most trivial debate. House Minority Leader Bertrand H. Snell (R-NY) generously conceded that it was “entirely out of the ordinary” to pass legislation that “is not even in print at the time it is offered.” He urged his colleagues to pass it all the same: “The house is burning down, and the President of the United States says this is the way to put out the fire. [Applause.] And to me at this time there is only one answer to this question, and that is to give the President what he demands and says is necessary to meet the situation.”

Among other things, the act retroactively approved the president’s closing of private banks throughout the country for several days the previous week, an act for which he had not bothered to provide a legal justification. It gave the secretary of the Treasury the power to require all individuals and corporations to hand over all their gold coin, gold bullion, or gold certificates if in his judgment “such action is necessary to protect the currency system of the United States.”

…click on the above link to read the rest…

$2.5 Quadrillion Disaster Waiting to Happen – Egon von Greyerz

$2.5 Quadrillion Disaster Waiting to Happen – Egon von Greyerz

Egon von Greyerz (EvG) stores gold for clients at the biggest private gold vault in the world buried deep in the Swiss Alps. EvG is a financial and precious metals expert.  EvG is a former Swiss banker and an expert in risk.  He says the risk in the global markets has never been this high.

EvG explains, “Credit has increased dramatically through derivatives.  All instruments being issued now by banks, pension funds, stock funds, it’s all synthetic.  There is no real underlying payments in anything almost.  Therefore, my estimate for derivatives would be at least $2 quadrillion, and I think that is probably conservative.  Then, we have debt on top of that of $300 trillion, and we also have a couple hundred trillion dollars of unfunded liabilities.  So, we are talking about $2.5 quadrillion, and that’s with a global GDP of $80 trillion.  So, there is a disaster waiting to happen, and especially because all this created money has created no value whatsoever. . . . I always knew this would collapse, and it’s taken longer than I expected, but I think we are at the end of a major era. . . . These derivatives, at some point in the coming few years, will actually turn into debt.  Central banks will have to cover all the outstanding liabilities of the commercial banks as we are seeing now with Credit Suisse, Bank of England and etc.  This is going to happen across the board.  Whether it’s called derivatives or called debt, as far as I am concerned, it’s the same thing.  It will have the same effect on the world financial system, which will be disastrous, of course.”

EvG says the derivative markets were simply a way for financial institutions to carry debt and not show it on their balance sheets.  In the end, everything will balance out…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

$2 Quadrillion Debt Precariously Resting on $2 Trillion Gold

$2 QUADRILLION DEBT PRECARIOUSLY RESTING ON $2 TRILLION GOLD

A Lehman squared moment is approaching with Swiss banks and UK pension funds under severe pressure.

But let’s first look at another circus –

The global travelling circus is now reaching ever more nations just as expected. This is right on cue at the end of the most extraordinary financial bubble era in history.

It is obviously debt creation, money printing and the resulting currency debasement which creates the inevitable fall of yet another monetary system. This has been the norm throughout history so the more it changes, the more it stays the same”.

It started this time with the closing of the gold window in August 1971.  That was the beginning of a financial and political circus which continuously added more risk and more lethal acts to keep the circus going.

An economic upheaval always causes political chaos with a revolving door of leaders and political parties going and coming. Remember, a government is never voted in but invariably voted out.

What was always clear to a few of us was that the circus would end with all of the acts crashing virtually simultaneously.

And this is what is starting to happen now.

We have just seen a political farce in the UK. Even the most talented playwright could not have created such a wonderful merry-go-round of characters who we have seen coming in and out of Downing Street.

Just look at the UK Prime Ministers. First there was David Cameron who had to resign in 2016 due to mishandling Brexit. Then the next PM Theresa May had to go in 2019 since she couldn’t get anything done, including Brexit. Then Boris Johnson won the biggest Conservative majority ever but was forced out in 2022 due to Partygate during Covid.

In came Liz Truss as PM in September this year but she only lasted 44 days due to her and her Chancellor’s (Finance Minister) mishandling of the mini budget. They managed to crash the pound and UK gilts (bonds) on the international markets leading to the Bank of England having to step in. Both gilts, derivatives and UK pension funds were at the point of implosion.

And now the carousel has gone full circle with Rishi Sunak the ex-Chancellor taking the helm as Boris bailed out. Boris clearly decided that speeches and other private engagements would be more fruitful than being part of the circus. But he will most certainly attempt to come back.

What a circus!

It just shows that at the end of an economic era, we get the worst leaders who always promise but never deliver.

In a bankrupt global system, you reach a point when the value of printed money dies and whatever a leader promises can no longer be bought with fake money which will always have ZERO intrinsic value.

No one must believe that this is only happening in the UK. The US has a leader who sadly is too old and not in command. He has a deputy who is not respected by anyone. So if Biden, as many believe, doesn’t make it to the end of his period, the US is likely to have a real leadership circus. Also, the US economy is chronically ill having run deficits for 90 years. What keeps the US alive temporarily is the dollar which is strong because it is the least ugly horse in the currency stable.

Scholz in Germany was given a very bad hand by Merkel but has certainly not improved it since he took charge and Germany is on the verge of collapse.

Most countries are the same. Macron doesn’t have a majority in France and strikes are paralysing his country on a daily basis. And his new Italian counterpart, PM Georgina Meloni certainly doesn’t shred her words. Just watch her having a very aggressive go at Macron (poor video quality).

But for people (like myself) who have difficulty accepting the current wave of Wokeism in the world, Meloni’s attack on this fad and her strong defence of family values is a “must watch” (video link). So there is still hope when leaders dare to express views that most media including social media censor today.

DEBT BONDAGE

History has dealt with punishment of non payment of debt in a variety of ways.

In the early Roman Republic around 2,500 years ago, there was a debt bondage called Nexum. In simple terms, a borrower pledged his person as collateral. If he didn’t pay his debt he was enslaved often for an undetermined period.

$2 trillion

Jumping quickly to modern times, it would mean that the majority of people, especially in the West would all be debt slaves today. The big difference today is that most people are debt slaves but they have physical freedom. Since virtually nobody, individuals, companies or sovereign states, neither has the intention nor the ability to repay debt, the world now has a chronic debt slavery.

It is even worse than that. The playing field is totally skewed in favour of the banks, big business and the wealthy. The more money you can play with, the more money you can make risk free.

UNLIMITED PERSONAL LIABILITY

No banker, no company management or business owner ever has to take the loss personally if he makes a mistake. Losses are socialised and profits are capitalised. Heads I win, Tails I don’t lose!

This Implosion Will Be Fast–Hold Onto Your Seats

THIS IMPLOSION WILL BE FAST – HOLD ONTO YOUR SEATS

The massive money creation in the 2000s has led to a debt and asset bubble, which is about to burst. Investors will be shocked by the speed of the decline and won’t react before it is too late.

The massive money creation by central and commercial banks in this century has resulted in a growth of global assets from $450 trillion in 2000 to $1,540 trillion in 2020.

DEBT TO GDP GROWTH

As the chart below shows US debt to GDP held well below 25% from 1790 to the 1930s, a period of almost 150 years. The depression with the New Deal followed by WWII pushed debt to GDP up to 125%. Then after the war, the debt  came down to around 30% in the early 1970s.

The closing of the gold window in 1971 ended all fiscal and monetary discipline. Since then, the US and much of the Western world has seen debt to GDP surge to well over 100%. In the US, Public Debt to GDP is now 125%. Back in 2000 it was only 54% but since then we have seen a vote buying system with a money printing bonanza and an exponential increase in debt to 125%.

A major part of the debt increase has gone to finance the rapid growth in property values.

The table below shows that property has grown on average by 250% between 2000 and 2020. So individuals are creating wealth by swapping properties with each other. Hardly a sustainable form of wealth creation.

The exponential growth in property prices has been global although countries like China, Canada, Australia and Sweden stand out with over 200% gains since 2000. Most of the properties bought in the last 20+ years involve massive leverage. When the property bubble soon bursts, many property owners will have negative equity and could easily lose their homes.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A surprising benefit to owning gold– especially now

By the year 41 BC, just a few years after the assassination of Julius Caesar, Rome was under the strict rule of a three-person dictatorship known as the Tresviri rei publicae constituendae.

Historians today refer to this committee as the Triumvirate, and it included a general named Aemilius Lepidus, as well as Gaius Octavius– who would eventually become Emperor Augustus.

But the leader of the group, at least at first, was Marcus Antonius, also known as Mark Antony.

Mark Antony was not especially popular. Many Romans rightfully suspected that Mark Antony had been involved in Caesar’s assassination. Plus he was sleeping with Caesar’s widow, Cleopatra.

But Antony’s power through the Triumvirate’s was absolute. He could raise taxes, establish new social and religious traditions, regulate daily life, seize private property, and even condemn people to death… all without any oversight or due process.

And he wasn’t shy about using this power to squash his opposition.

Antony put several of his political enemies to death– including the much beloved Cicero, who was trying to escape Rome when Antony’s goons killed him.

Antony also threatened to kill another Senator named Nonius. But unlike Cicero, Nonius managed to escape Rome… bring with him about $1.5 million worth of gold and jewels.

People in the ancient world knew that precious metals (and precious stones) were pretty much the only portable forms of wealth.

Human civilization at the time was completely agrarian, so most productive assets like land and crops were impossible to move. Gold was almost the singular option to move large sums of wealth, and it remained this way for centuries.

These days there are much better options. Many forms of wealth– financial securities, intellectual property, bank deposits, and cryptocurrency– are completely portable. So gold is no longer necessary as a way to move money abroad.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold As Cheap Today As In 1971 At $35

GOLD AS CHEAP TODAY AS IN 1971 AT $35

“Specie (gold and silver coin) is the most perfect medium because it will preserve its own level, because having intrinsic and universal value, it can never die in our hands, and it is the surest resource of reliance in time of war.”  – Thomas Jefferson

Since no current President or Prime Minister nor any Central Bank Chairman understands what money is or the relevance of gold, we turn above back to history and Thomas Jefferson, America’s third president for a proper definition.

Jefferson also understood that “Paper is Poverty, It is only the Ghost of Money, and not Money itself.”

As the world economy goes towards an inflationary depression exacerbated not only by epic debts and deficits but now also by war, the significance of gold takes on a whole different dimension.

So let’s dissect Jefferson’s statement:

“(GOLD) Will preserve its own level”

Gold is Constant Purchasing PowerAs such, gold doesn’t go up in real terms. An ounce of gold today buys a good suit for a man just like it did in Roman times.

The graph below shows gold as constant purchasing power at the 100 line whilst all the currencies are crashing to the bottom.

All currencies are continuing to lose value against real money although it never takes place in a straight line. With higher interest rates & inflation, higher deficits & debts, poverty, cost of wars and increasing pressures in the financial system, the currency debasement will now accelerate.

Gold is not an investment. Gold is eternal money. As such gold maintains its REAL value whereas paper money loses all its value over time. For 5000 years gold has outlived all other forms of money including paper money.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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