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Apocalyptic September? Here Is A List Of 27 Major Disasters That Have Already Happened So Far This Month

September 11, 2017

Apocalyptic September? Here Is A List Of 27 Major Disasters That Have Already Happened So Far This Month

Two major hurricanes, unprecedented earthquake swarms and wildfires roaring out of control all over the northwest United States – what else will go wrong next?  When I originally pointed to the month of September as a critical time, I had no idea that we would see so many catastrophic natural disasters during this time frame as well.  Hurricane Harvey just broke the all-time record for rainfall in the continental United States, Hurricane Irma is so immensely powerful that it has been called “a lawnmower from the sky”, vast stretches of our country out west are literally being consumed by fire, and the magnitude-8.2 earthquake that just hit Mexico was completely unexpected.  As I have stated so many times before, our planet is becoming increasingly unstable, but most people simply do not understand what is happening.

My good friend Zach Drew is getting married next month, and I would encourage everyone to go wish him well on Facebook.  On Friday, he posted the best summary of the major disasters that we have been experiencing so far this month that I have seen anywhere…

California is on fire.
Oregon is on fire.
Washington is on fire.
British Columbia is on fire.
Alberta is on fire
Montana is on fire.
Nova Scotia is on fire.
Greece is on fire.
Brazil is on fire.
Portugal is on fire.
Algeria is on fire.
Tunisia is on fire.
Greenland is on fire.
The Sakha Republic of Russia is on fire.
Siberia is on fire.

Texas is under water
India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, experience record monsoons and massive death toll.
Sierra Leone and Niger experience massive floods, mudslides, and deaths in the thousands.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Half Of Florida Without Power As State Braces For “Lengthiest Restoration In US History”

September 11, 2017

Half Of Florida Without Power As State Braces For “Lengthiest Restoration In US History”

After hammering the Florida Keys, Miami, Naples and a large swath of the southernmost part of the state – leaving some 5 million Florida homes and businesses without electricity – the still-formidable Hurricane Irma weakened to a category one storm as it traveled over the Tampa Bay area.

According to NBC, no deaths were confirmed Sunday after the storm twice made landfall in Florida, first in Cudjoe Key, then again on Marco Island just southwest of the city of Naples. Florida’s largest utility – Florida Power & Light Co. – reported that the storm had knocked out power to nearly three-quarters of its customers. All told, FP&L estimates that some 10 million Floridians will be effected by the power outages – a full 50% of the state’s population.

In fact, officials from the utility say the damage in the southwestern part of the state is so extensive, it could take weeks to fully repair, after Irma shredded powerlines, flooded streets and destroyed homes, according to ABC. One officials said it could be the costliest and most extensive infrastructure-rebuilding effort in US history.

“What we think we’ll see on the west coast is a wholesale rebuild of our electric grid,” Robert Gould, Florida Power & Light’s vice president and chief communications officer, told ABC News. “That will take weeks.”

“This thing is a monster,” he added.

FPL had requisitioned 17,000 restoration workers from about 30 states in preparation for the storm. But even with an army of workers, the recovery effort will be time-consuming and incredibly costly.

“Gould estimated that FPL positioned “17,000 restoration workers from about 30 states” in anticipation of repair efforts before the storm arrived, but said that flooding from storm surges and traffic congestion as residents return home this week would delay the project.

Refiners Boost Output, But Irma Could Dent Demand

September 10, 2017

Refiners Boost Output, But Irma Could Dent Demand

Refinery

Texas continues to recover from Hurricane Harvey, and many of the disrupted refineries are ramping up production once again. But the ripple effects from the outages are still being felt, and some Midwestern refineries are benefitting from surging margins stemming from the havoc.

Bakken Midwest refining margins more than doubled between August 23 and September 1, according to S&P Global Platts, jumping from $9 per barrel to temporarily over $20 per barrel, although they have since fallen back a bit.

The margins are inflated because of gasoline shortages in certain parts of the country, the unfortunate consequence of the massive refinery outages along the Gulf Coast after Hurricane Harvey. Refining margins were also helped along by the initial downward pressure that WTI exhibited as crude oil backed up without any place to go.

That means that refineries outside of the Gulf Coast could temporarily enjoy super profits. September is typically a time of the year when refineries undergo some maintenance and retool to prepare for winter fuel blends, but few are likely to take their plants offline in this market. “Nearly every refinery outside Louisiana and Texas is operating near full capacity,” Thomas Pugh, commodities economist at Capital Economics, told the Wall Street Journal.

“Refineries outside the affected area may delay maintenance to benefit from high processing margins,” Commerzbank oil analyst Carsten Fritsch said in late August. “Hence, the negative impact on crude oil demand and oil product supply might be less severe than feared.”

Indeed, refineries unaffected by Hurricane Harvey have been called into action, but the ramp up has its own consequences. As Midwestern refineries scramble to produce at max capacity, the demand for crude is pushing up benchmark prices in the region. Bakken crude started trading at a large premium relative to WTI as supplies tightened. From S&P Global Platts:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

On Repairing/Rebuilding 100,000+ Damaged Houses

September 10, 2017

On Repairing/Rebuilding 100,000+ Damaged Houses

Almost lost in all the dollar estimates of property damage is the human loss, suffering and stress.

I am not an expert in repairing flood damage, or in dealing with insurance companies, FEMA or all the other pieces that will go into homeowners getting the funding needed to repair or rebuild their homes.

But I do know a bit about construction after 44 years in the field, and I have been soberly reflecting on the many hurdles that face everyone involved in restoring / repairing tens of thousands of homes, more or less all at the same time.

Preliminary estimates set the number of flood-damaged homes in Houston at around 100,000. More recent estimates put the number at around 40,000.

No one yet knows how many homes in Florida have been damaged by Hurricane Irma, but the number will undoubtedly be a big one.

Here are some semi-random thoughts on the challenges of repairing/rebuilding so many dwellings in as short a period of time as possible:

1. The average cost of homes in Houston is reportedly around $300,000. Many coastal areas in Florida are similarly valued. Just as a guess, many of the affected homeowners probably have mortgages in the $200,000 range.

It’s been reported that only 1 in 6 in the affected areas of Houston have flood insurance, suggesting 85% of those whose homes were rendered unlivable will need to borrow money to fund the repairs.

It seems federal agencies offer homeowners loans for this purpose, or access to what is effectively a second mortgage.

If the repaired home will be worth $300,000–questionable, perhaps, for those houses which have been repeatedly flooded by lesser storms–then how much money will homeowners be willing to borrow to keep the home?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Irma’s 15-Foot Storm Surge Could Demolish 1,000 Miles Of Florida Coast: “It Will Cover Your House”

September 10, 2017

Irma’s 15-Foot Storm Surge Could Demolish 1,000 Miles Of Florida Coast: “It Will Cover Your House”

As we noted on Friday, sea-level analytics firm Climate Central had created a simulation based on the National Hurricane Center’s Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment storm surge and wave modeling that illustrated the devastating flooding in Miami that could result from Hurricane Irma’s storm surge. By overlaying the NHC data with a three-dimensional visual of the city obtained using Google maps, the firm created a realistic visual of what the city would look like under between seven and 11 feet of water.

Luckily, in the last minute the Hurricane shifted westward, but the concerns remain.

Given the expected intensity of the flooding, some readers might assume that the dreaded surge would be the result of tsunami-like waves overwhelming the city’s beaches. But that’s not the case. As the Associated Press explains, the hurricane-force winds draw in water not just form the ocean, but other nearby bodies of water as well. However, forecasters say surges kill more people than the strong winds.

As Florida Gov. Rick Scott warned, the surge “will cover your house.” Already, at least three Floridians have died in the Keys.

“It’s not a wall of water or a tsunami. Simply put, hurricane winds push water toward shore. It can happen quickly and far from a storm’s center, inundating areas that don’t typically flood.

Storm surge doesn’t just come from the ocean. It can come from sounds, bays and lakes, sometimes well inland.”

And with a category four Hurricane like Irma, the water can rise quickly, creating a potentially lethal surprise.

Large hurricanes tend to create greater storm surge over a broader area, and coastal features such as bays can act like funnels and back water up into rivers and canals, said Jamie Rhome, head of the U.S. National Hurricane Center’s storm surge unit.

‘This is going to sneak up on people,’ Rhome said.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Irma Begins To Lash Florida With Hurricane-Force Winds, Tornadoes Reported

September 10, 2017

Irma Begins To Lash Florida With Hurricane-Force Winds, Tornadoes Reported 

With just hours left until landfall, sometime on Sunday morning, Hurricane Irma is edging ever closer to Florida and has started to batter the state with Hurricane force winds as millions brace for the impact of the most powerful Atlantic storm in a decade.

According to ABC and AP, the National Weather Service measured a 74-mph gust in the Florida Keys on Saturday night, marking the beginning of hurricane-force winds that forecasters say will steadily intensify in the coming hours.

Glenna Milberg ✔@GlennaOn10

Intense now….8p-7a @WPLGLocal10

A tornado watch is in effect across the area, and at least two such twisters have already been reported.

“It’s A Killer” – Florida Orders A Third Of The Population To Evacuate As Irma Hurtles Toward Tampa

September 9, 2017

“It’s A Killer” – Florida Orders A Third Of The Population To Evacuate As Irma Hurtles Toward Tampa

Florida’s highways and backroads are clogged with motorists after Gov. Rick Scott has ordered an unprecedented 6.2 million residents of central and southern Florida to evacuate. Meanwhile, Miami, along with many towns and cities along the state’s southeastern coast, resembles a ghost town, according to the New York Post.

To recap: The category 4 storm has already carved a path of destruction through the Caribbean, leaving 90% or Barbuda uninhabitable and nearly a million people without power in Puerto Rico. And now, with the storm’s outer bands already battering the southern part of the state, meteorologists are saying Irma has suddenly shifted westward and is now heading toward Florida’s Gulf Coast – specifically, the Tampa Bay area.

Here’s the Associated Press:

Forecasters expect Irma’s core to come ashore Sunday and strike the Keys, southwestern Florida and the Tampa Bay region, which hasn’t felt a major hurricane since 1921. The eye is expected to miss heavily-populated Miami, which may have dodged a bubble in the last minute, but that area will still get life-threatening hurricane conditions even without a direct hit, Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltgen said.

ABC News

✔@ABC

Replying to @ABC

LATEST: currently Cat. 3 Hurricane with winds of 125 mph; expected to restrengthen as it heads towards Florida http://abcn.ws/2xcR82b  pic.twitter.com/6MStKhvII4

ABC News ✔@ABC

MORE: 175 miles SE of Key West, FL, moving west at 9 mph; expected head up western coast of Florida. http://abcn.ws/2xcR82b pic.twitter.com/b6XtIF92YI

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hurricane Irma Is Being Called ‘A Lawnmower From The Sky’ And FEMA Warns It Will ‘Devastate’ The Southeast

September 9, 2017

Hurricane Irma Is Being Called ‘A Lawnmower From The Sky’ And FEMA Warns It Will ‘Devastate’ The Southeast

It looks like Hurricane Irma is going to make landfall in south Florida on Sunday morning.  Of course that could still change, but this is what the meteorologists are telling us at this point.  But of course the exact spot where Irma makes landfall is not so important because of the absolutely immense size of this storm.  Irma is going to cause chaos and devastation over a very large area, and just like Hurricane Harvey the recovery from this storm is literally going to be measured in years.

Down in the Caribbean, the destruction that Irma has caused has been absolutely unprecedented.  The president of the island of Saint Martin “estimated that 95 percent of his country had been obliterated”, and one resident of the island described the storm as “a lawnmower from the sky”…

Witnesses described similar scenes on the island’s Dutch half. “It’s like someone with a lawnmower from the sky has gone over the island,” said Mairlou Rohan, a European tourist visiting Sint Maarten, part of the Netherlands.

That is not the sort of terminology that I would use, but without a doubt the devastation caused by this storm has been off the charts.

On Barbuda, at least 90 percent of the buildings have been destroyed…

Gaston Browne, the prime minister of Antigua and Barbuda, said Barbuda was “totally demolished,” with 90% of its buildings destroyed. Communication with the island was cut off because of the destruction. As Hurricane Jose approaches the island, Barbuda officials are trying to evacuate the entire population of 1,800.

Now the storm is heading straight for south Florida, and FEMA is using apocalyptic language to describe what might happen…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

If You Think Your Friday Evening Commute Is Bad…

September 8, 2017

If You Think Your Friday Evening Commute Is Bad…

As the “biggest evacuation in US history” continues, stunning images are showing what a nightmare shifting 650,000 people out of state looks like.

The mass exodus began yesterday…

But, as you drive home tonight from work, ready for beer-0-clock, spare a thought for these poor displaced folk stuck in this utter disaster…

Called a “game changer” for the Marijuana industry, this stock is rapidly dominating one of the largest markets in the legal cannabis space.

As they flee this…

And it’s only going to get worse…

This Is What Miami Could Look Like On Sunday Morning

September 8, 2017

This Is What Miami Could Look Like On Sunday Morning

An analysis by Climate Central shows that the Florida storm surge from hurricane Irma could endanger millions, and result in hundreds of billions in property damage.

According to Climate Central, it has created the following resources to help anyone remaining in the area visually understand how dangerous the flooding will be in their neighborhood and take safety measures accordingly.

These simulations are based on the Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment (CERA) storm surge and wave model using data from the National Hurricane Center forecast track from Friday morning (Advisory 37). CERA partners include multiple leading universities and federal agencies.

The videos use Google Earth to simulate what the these storm surge forecasts would appear like in different South Florida neighborhoods. The height  above mean sea level for each simulation is shown in the titles. As local topography varies, these values translate to approximately 7-10 feet of water above ground in many areas according to the Storm Surge Warming forecasts from the National Weather Service.

Downtown Miami (13.5 feet)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Swamp Fever

September 8, 2017

Swamp Fever

Further proof, as if more were needed, that God is rather cross with the world’s number one exceptional nation: Hurricane Irma is tracking for a direct hit on Disney World. In the immortal words of the Talking Heads: This ain’t no party, this ain’t no disco, this ain’t no fooling around.

Houston is still soggy and punch-drunk, with a fantastic explosion of breeding mosquitoes, and otherwise it’s not even in the news anymore. This week, the cable networks had their scant crews of reporters scuttling around Florida, asking the people here and there about their feelings. “What’s gonna happen is gonna happen….” I think I heard that one about sixty times, and there’s actually no disputing the truth of it.

For the moment, though (Friday morning), it’s a little hard to calculate the effect of a complete scrape-off, wash, and rinse of the state of Florida vis-à-vis the ongoing viability of the US economy. There’s going to be a big hole with dollars rushing into it and that will likely prompt the combined powers of the US Treasury, congress, and the Federal Reserve to materialize tens of billions of new dollars. Overnight the DXY plunged to a new low for the year.

Am I the only observer wondering if Irma may be a fatal blow to the banking system? The mind reels at the insurance implications of what’s about to happen. Urgent obligations triggered by an event of this scale can’t possibly be serviced. Look for it to snap the chain of counterparty leverage that has been propping up the banks, insurers, and pension funds on mere promises for years on end. Finance, both private and public, has been feeding off unreality since well before the tremor of 2008. The destruction of Florida (and whatever else stands in the way up the line) will be as real as it gets.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Greatest Evacuation In History” – 650,000 Ordered To Leave Florida

September 8, 2017

“Greatest Evacuation In History” – 650,000 Ordered To Leave Florida

In what spokesman Michael Hernandez describes as “the biggest evacuation in history,” Miami-Dade has expanded its mandatory evacuations orders to Zone C, forcing over 650,000 to leave Florida in a “traffic nightmare” as Cat-5 Hurricane Irma bears down.

An earlier order included just Miami Beach, other low-lying and barrier island areas and all mobile-home residents, but as the storm grew in intensity and the cone of uncertainty narrowed, County Mayor Carlos Gimenez issued the order this afternoon expanded to Zone C.

The expansion now covers Zone B, which encompasses Brickell, Miami’s downtown area and South-Dade, including parts of Cutler Bay, Florida City and Homestead. Evacuation orders also touch Zone C, which includes parts of Coral Gables, South Miami, Miami Shores and North Miami Beach.

More than 650,000 residents are reportedly subject to the mandatory evacuation order – that’s up from the 200,000 who were asked to leave to areas outside of evacuation Zones A and B, Wednesday.

Downtown Miami is described as “a ghost town”...

Panic Buying of Gasoline in Florida, 40% of Miami Stations Out of Gas: Blame Anti-Gouging Laws for Shortages

September 7, 2017

Panic Buying of Gasoline in Florida, 40% of Miami Stations Out of Gas: Blame Anti-Gouging Laws for Shortages

As Hurricane Irma nears Florida, everyone is in a rush to fill up their tanks. About 40% of the gasoline stations in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale region are now without fuel. Floridians have turned to the Crowd-Sourced ‘Gas Buddy’ App to determine which stations still have gas.

The above image from the web version of Gas Buddy Tracker. Zoom into the area you’re looking for gas to see the red and green symbols indicating fuel shortages. Gas Buddy says the mobile app is more accurate.

Patrick DeHaan, the senior petroleum analyst at Gas Buddy, said their newest feature – the Gas Availability Tracker – has now been rolled out to those who could be affected by Hurricane Irma in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.

“The tool seeks to help motorists in need to find gasoline, and certainly in some cases. will also help motorists find stations that have power,” DeHaan said.

The app was developed during Hurricane Harvey in Texas. People can log in to view gas stations in their area. A red fuel pump icon indicates the station currently has gas. A red lightning bolt icon indicates the station has power, especially helpful for those in areas affected by power outages.

The data is largely crowdsourced by users who submit information through the app.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott announced in Miami that he’s asked the governors of Alabama and Georgia to waive trucking regulations so tankers can get fuel into the city, which is experiencing one of the largest shortages statewide as residents prepare for the hurricane’s landfall.

He told residents of the Florida Keys that “we’re doing everything to get fuel to you as quickly as possible.” Tourists are under a mandatory evacuation order, which began Wednesday morning.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Not Just Florida: Georgia And South Carolina Face “Catastrophic Storm Surge”

September 7, 2017

Not Just Florida: Georgia And South Carolina Face “Catastrophic Storm Surge”

As Hurricane Irma looks to be hurdling straight for a direct hit on Southern Florida, meteorologists from Weather Underground are warning that the most devastating impacts of the storm could be felt much further north in towns along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina where the storm surge could be a catastrophic 20-28 feet high in certain areas.  To put that in perspective, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 set a record for the largest storm surge ever recorded along the U.S. coast at 27.8 feet.

If Irma makes a trek up the East Coast from Miami to southern South Carolina as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, as the models currently suggest, the portions of the coast that the eyewall touches will potentially see a massive and catastrophic storm surge, breaking all-time storm surge records and causing many billions of dollars in damage. Even areas up to a hundred miles to the north of where the center makes landfall could potentially see record storm surges. The area of most concern is the northern coast of Florida, the coast of Georgia, and the southern coast of South Carolina, due to the concave shape of the coast, which will act to funnel and concentrate the storm surge to ridiculous heights. If we look at wunderground’s storm surge maps for the U.S. East Coast, we see that in a worst-case Category 3 hurricane hitting at high tide, the storm tide (the combined effect of the storm surge and the tide) ranges from 17 – 20’ above ground along the northern coast of Florida, and 18 – 23 feet above ground along the Georgia coast. If Irma is a Cat 4, these numbers increase to 22 – 28 feet for the coast of Georgia. This is a Katrina-level storm surge, the kind that causes incredible destruction and mass casualties among those foolish enough to refuse to evacuate.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

American Society of Civil Engineers Warns: Florida’s Coastal Areas & Stormwater Infrastructure Are in Poor Condition

September 7, 2017

AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CIVIL ENGINEERS WARNS: FLORIDA’S COASTAL AREAS & STORMWATER INFRASTRUCTURE ARE IN POOR CONDITION

Hurricane Irma is one of the most powerful Atlantic Cat-5 hurricanes ever, barreling towards Florida with 175mph winds moving West North West at 16mph. The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting Irma will make Florida landfall as a ‘major hurricane’ (wind speed greater than 110mph) on Sunday morning at 8am.

Infrastructure in Florida is the backbone of the economy. The American Society of Civil Engineers released Florida’s 2016 Report Card with a rating of “C”. That means the overall health of the state’s infrastructure is “mediocre”.

Here is the concerning part. Coastal areas and stormwater systems are in very poor condition—under preforming with “D” ratings. With Irma’s potential impact on Sunday this could be cataphatic for flood zones when considering the intensity of the storm.

Coastal area report card D+, 

Florida’s economy relies heavily on its 825 miles of sandy beaches, the state’s “invisible” coastal infrastructure that protects Florida’s communities from storm damage. Florida beaches are also significant to the economy as the number of beachgoers yearly is more than double the number of visitors to all U.S. parks combined. Unfortunately, nearly 61% of Florida’s sandy beaches (503.8 miles) are eroding. Beaches and inlets require ongoing maintenance to fight erosion. Developing and applying local and regional beach management strategies has proven essential to decreasing the risk exposure in coastal areas and providing storm damage reduction benefits, such as protection of power plants adjacent to the coast. However, over the last 10 years, the average difference between requested and state appropriated funds exceeded $40 million per year.

Stomwater systems report card D,

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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