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Could the Covid19 Response be More Deadly than the Virus?
Could the Covid19 Response be More Deadly than the Virus?
The economic, social and public health consequences of these measures could claim millions of victims
The initial, alarming estimates of deaths from the virus COVID-19 were that as many as 2.2 million people would die in the United States. This number is comparable to the annual US death rate of around 3 million. Fortunately, correction of some simple errors in overestimation has begun to dramatically reduce the virus mortality claims.
The most recent estimate from “the leading US authority on the COVID-19 pandemic” suggests that the US may see between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths from COVID-19, with the final tally likely to be somewhere in the middle.” This means that we are expecting around 150,000 US deaths caused by the virus, if the latest estimates hold up.
How does that compare to the effects of the measures taken in response? By all accounts, the impact of the response will be great, far-reaching, and long-lasting.
To better assess the difference we might ask, how many people will die as a result of the response to COVID-19? Although a comprehensive analysis is needed from those experienced with modeling mortality rates, we can begin to estimate by examining existing research and comparative statistics. Let’s start by looking at three critical areas of impact: suicide and drug abuse, lack of medical treatment or coverage, and poverty and food access.
SUICIDES AND DRUG ABUSE
According to the National Center for Health Statistics, over 48,000 suicides occurred in the US in 2018. This equates to an annual rate of about 14 suicides per 100,000 people. As expected, suicides increase substantially during times of economic depression. For example, as a result of the 2008 recession there was an approximate 25% increase. Similarly, during a peak year of the Great Depression, in 1932, the rate rose to 17 suicides per 100,000 people.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
10 Signs the U.S. Is Heading for a Depression
10 Signs the U.S. Is Heading for a Depression
1– Unemployment is off-the-charts
Thursday’s jobless claims leave no doubt that the country is in the grips of another severe recession. More than 6.6 million Americans filed for unemployment insurance in the last week. That number exceeds the gloomiest prediction of more than 40 economists and pushes the two-week total to an eye-watering 10 million claims.
According to CNBC:
“Those at the lower end of the wage scale have been especially hard-hit during a crisis that has seen businesses either cut staff outright or at best freeze any new hiring until there’s more visibility about how efforts to contain the coronavirus will work.
“We’ve lived through the recession and 9/11. What we’re seeing with this decline is actually worse than both of those events,” said Irina Novoselsky, CEO of online jobs marketplace CareerBuilder.” (CNBC)
According to New York Magazine:
“Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis projected Monday that job losses from the coronavirus recession would reach 47 million and push America’s unemployment rate to 32.1 percent — more than 7 points higher than its Great Depression–era peak.”
2– Service Sector has been walloped by the virus
Services account for 70% of the US economy, but presently the sector is in meltdown. According to the analysts at Wolf Street: “Employment contracted sharply and hours were reduced for those still employed. “The employment index plunged from +6.1 to -23.8, also the lowest level on record…
Retailers got whacked. The Retail Sales Index of the Texas Retail Outlook Survey collapsed from the already beaten-down level of -2.5 in February to an epic all-time low of -82.6 in March… (Also) the general business activity index collapsed from the beaten down level of -5.0 to a historic low of -84.2….
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Depression Strikes America, Looting Begins, Panic Searching “Buy Ammo” Hits Record
Depression Strikes America, Looting Begins, Panic Searching “Buy Ammo” Hits Record
With a labor market in freefall, ten million Americans have lost their jobs in two weeks. CNN reported Thursday afternoon that stimulus checks for households could take up to 20 weeks, which is creating a perfect storm of possible social unrest.
The Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies recently warned that a “social bomb could explode at any moment” over Western cities. That is because the evolution of the pandemic, which has crashed the American economy into a depression, could result in social unraveling in major metros, specifically in low-income areas.
We’ve noted in the last several weeks that Americans are panic hoarding guns as the fear of social unrest could be imminent. President Trump signed an executive order last Friday that allows for up to one million National Guard and reservists to be called up to fight the virus or be used to maintain social order.
With lockdowns across the country, the National Guard has been deployed across many states. Here are some sights from Baltimore:
Baltimore
Signs of social unrest are already starting to develop this week. Law enforcement agencies in South Carolina and California have charged people with looting businesses during the shutdowns, reported The Sun.
Police in Santa Cruz, California, arrested five people who were robbing businesses in the city, despite a “shelter-in-place” public health order enforced by the state government.
In South Carolina, police arrested two men as they attempted to raid a storage warehouse unit.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“The Biggest Decline Ever”: Goldman Now Sees US GDP Crashing 34% In Q2
“The Biggest Decline Ever”: Goldman Now Sees US GDP Crashing 34% In Q2
Just over a week ago, when we reported on the ongoing feud between Goldman and JPM to come up with the most terrifying GDP forecast for the US, and when we asked if a Second Great Depression has begun after Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius slashed his Q2 GDP forecast from -5% to -24%, we said “we expect Goldman to take the machete to this analysis as well in the coming days, because if the US economy is indeed paralyzed for at least one quarter, then all of GDP could be lost.”
We were right, because early on Monday morning Goldman’s Haztius did just that, and in a report titled “The Sudden Stop: A Deeper Trough, A Bigger Rebound”, he writes that he is “making further significant adjustments to our GDP and employment estimates. We now forecast real GDP growth of -9% in Q1 and -34% in Q2 in qoq annualized terms (vs. -6% and -24% previously) and see the unemployment rate rising to 15% by midyear (vs. 9% previously).”
Detailing the assumptions behind his latest revision, Hatzius explains that he has increased his estimates of the peak hit to services consumption, manufacturing activity, and construction, “in light of new evidence on the severity of the hit across the different sectors” and now expects the level of GDP in April to be 13% below the January/February trend, as shown in Exhibit 1. “We assume that this drag then fades gradually by 10% each month in the services industry and by 12.5% in the manufacturing and construction industries.”
Behind the core of the drop Goldman sees a 19% annualized drag from services consumption on Q2 growth, on top of a 3pp drag on Q1 growth. as shown in the next chart.
“Rolling Natural Disaster” – COVID-19 Supply Chain Shock Could Trigger Global Depression
“Rolling Natural Disaster” – COVID-19 Supply Chain Shock Could Trigger Global Depression
Evidence of creaking global supply chains is fast emerging, at risk of triggering the next global depression amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
A supply chain crisis that began earlier this year, one that we warned from the very start, has now spread across Asia to the Middle East to Europe, and now to the Americas.
“This is kind of a rolling natural disaster,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economic research at Bank of America. “In terms of the impact on global production, the shutdown outside of China will likely become bigger than the impact from China.”
Harris warned that the shock to global supply chains is deep and broad and could easily last through the next quarter. He estimates that factory shutdowns in many regions could last until May.
New Covid-19 advert urges protection of elderly
He describes a twin shock, one where a supply chain shock has been combined with a demand shock, culminating into a perfect storm, will likely tip many countries into recession, if not depression during the second quarter.
Bloomberg piecemeals current supply chain disruptions seen across the world:
Apple has had the most exposure to a China shutdown, with manufacturing plants in the country still operating well below full capacity in late March. Virus-related closings have hammered several of the company’s key suppliers operating in South Korea, Italy, Germany, and Malaysia.
In late January, Freeport-McMoRan’s CEO Richard Adkerson warned that the virus outbreak in China is a “real black swan event” for the global economy. The company’s mining operations in Peru have recently been halted. Other mining facilities in Chile, Canada, and Mongolia have also been shuttered.
Across Europe, Airbus and Volkswagen AG have closed production plants amid severe virus outbreaks in Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Switzerland, and the UK. Major transportation networks on the continent have come to a standstill as nonessential travel has been banned in many regions.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
We Are Heading for a Depression – Charles Nenner
We Are Heading for a Depression – Charles Nenner
Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner told his clients back in January 2020, “It was time to sell . . . . I am afraid they can lose 40% to the downside.” Well, we are more than halfway there, and Nenner warns it’s going to go lower—much lower. Nenner says, “You know it was all over the media, and they were always laughing at me that my long term target is 5,000 for the DOW Jones. They ask me how are we going to get there, and I say I don’t know. Now, this thing with the virus, there is no business anymore because the United States has stopped flights with Europe. So, maybe we can see how we get there.”
I think people have finally stopped laughing about Nenner’s 5,000 DOW call.
Another way the markets can crash is a full blown banking crisis that is brewing in Europe. At the center is Deutsche Bank (DB), which the IMF called the “most systemically dangerous bank” in the world back in 2016. Nenner predicted on USAWatchdog.com that if DB stock crashed through a $6.44 price target, it could go to $0. DB closed Thursday at $5.53, down 15% in one day. Nenner says, “I have real estate I want to sell because in Amsterdam, it’s going through the roof. I decided not to do it because I don’t trust the banking system. For years, we have talked about Deutsche Bank, and I said if it goes below $6.50, it could go into bankruptcy. Now it’s $5.50. They are interconnected to most European banks. So, something is really cooking over there, and I don’t really trust the banks. That’s why I am not selling my real estate. . . . I don’t trust the banks anymore.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Gerald Celeste–$2000 Gold Coming and Brace For the Greatest Depression Ever Seen By Early 2021
GERALD CELENTE – $2000 GOLD COMING AND BRACE FOR THE GREATEST DEPRESSION EVER SEEN BY EARLY 2021
Gerald Celente, Founder of the Trends Research Institute, shares one of his boldest forecast with SBTV – expect $2,000 gold price as early as end-2020 and prepare for the onset of the greatest depression the world has ever seen by early 2021. Get as strong as you can physically, emotionally and spiritually to survive the coming crisis.
Discussed in this interview:
02:32 Top trend for 2020: New world disorder
08:01 Closing of gold window in 1971
14:33 The endgame of the dishonest money system
15:48 Beneficiaries of the monetary methadone
19:12 The great gold robbery of 1933
22:06 Gold bull run
27:12 The first shots of World War III has been fired
32:26 Prepare now to survive the coming depression
Coronavirus and the world economy
Coronavirus and the world economy
The outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic in China has shaken the global asset markets—and with good reason. The coronavirus has the potential of being the ‘trigger’ which will push the world into a global depression.
Here, we briefly explain why.
The outbreak
It looks that the virus spreads very easily, through droplet infection and with a “latency” period that allows infected people to spread the virus before they themselves exhibit symptoms. This implies that the virus has already spread much more widely than original estimates indicate. The individual cases popping up across the globe are one confirmation of this.
Fortunately, the fatality rate is still relatively low: under 2 percent. However, this can change, especially if the virus mutates, and there’s already speculation, whether the figures provided by China can be trusted.
China in trouble
As we have been warning through 2019 (see, e.g., this and this), China’s economy is ripe for a serious downturn. Beijing used most of its remaining firepower last year, when it desperately tried to postpone the inevitable recession, probably to appear strong in the trade negotiations.
Despite record-breaking stimulus enacted in 2019, the Chinese economy has grown at a sub-par rate of around six percent. And this is according to the official statistics! In reality, the actual Chinese growth rate has probably been much lower.
As China’s State-Owned Enterprises, or “SOEs”, have become riddled with debt, their ability to increase production has stagnated. This has also contributed to the broader stagnation of productivity growth in China (see Figure 1). After the growth of SOEs faltered in 2017, the Chinese consumer has become an important driver of the economy.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
An Inflationary Depression
An Inflationary Depression
Financial markets are ignoring bearish developments in international trade, which coincide with the end of a long expansionary phase for credit. Both empirical evidence from the one occasion these conditions existed in the past and reasoned theory suggest the consequences of this collective folly will be enormous, undermining both financial asset values and fiat currencies.
The last time this coincidence occurred was 1929-32, leading into the great depression, when prices for commodities and output prices for consumer goods fell heavily. With unsound money and a central banking determination to maintain prices, depression conditions will be concealed by monetary expansion, but still exist, nonetheless.
Introduction
The unfortunate souls who are beholden to macroeconomics will read this article’s headline as a contradiction, because they regard inflation as a stimulant and a depression as the consequence of deflation, the opposite of inflation.
An economic depression does not require deflation, if by that term is meant a contraction of the money in circulation. More correctly, it is the collective impoverishment of the people, which is most easily achieved by debasement of the currency: in other words, monetary inflation. Fundamental to the myth that an inflation of the money supply is the path to economic recovery are the forecasts by the economic establishment that the world, or its smaller national units, will suffer no more than a mild recession before economic growth resumes. It is not only complacent central bank and government economists that say this, but their followers in the private sector as well.
It is for this reason that the S&P 500 Index is still only a few per cent below its all-time high. If there was the slightest hint that Corporate America risks being destabilised by a depression, this would not be the case.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Doug Casey: The Deep State Is the Source of Our Economic Problems
Doug Casey: The Deep State Is the Source of Our Economic Problems
Justin’s note: As longtime readers know, Doug Casey says we’re well into what he calls the Greater Depression.
America is headed for trouble… and it’s critical to know exactly what’s going on.
That’s why today’s essay is so important. In it, Doug explains the source behind every negative thing that’s happening right now… and what’s really going on behind the scenes.
It’s one of the most educational and entertaining pieces you’ll read all year.
I’d like to address some aspects of the Greater Depression in this essay.
I’m here to tell you that the inevitable became reality in 2008. We’ve had an interlude over the last few years financed by trillions of new currency units.
However, the economic clock on the wall is reading the same time as it was in 2007, and the Black Horsemen of your worst financial nightmares are about to again crash through the doors and end the party. And this time, they won’t be riding children’s ponies, but armored Percherons.
To refresh your memory, let me recount what a depression is.
The best general definition is: A period of time when most people’s standard of living drops significantly. By that definition, the Greater Depression started in 2008, although historians may someday say it began in 1971, when real wages started falling.
It’s also a period of time when distortions and misallocations of capital are liquidated, and when the business cycle, which is caused exclusively by currency debasement, also known as inflation, climaxes. That results in high unemployment, business failures, uncompleted construction, bond defaults, stock market crashes, and the like.
Fortunately, for those who benefit from the status quo, and members of something called the Deep State, the trillions of new currency units delayed the liquidation. But they also ensured it will now happen on a much grander scale.
The Deep State is an extremely powerful network that controls nearly everything around you. You won’t read about it in the news because it controls the news. Politicians won’t talk about it publicly. That would be like a mobster discussing murder and robbery on the 6 o’clock news. You could say the Deep State is hidden, but it’s only hidden in plain sight.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
‘Deaths Of Despair’ In The U.S. Hit Record High – So How Bad Will Things Get When Society Starts To Completely Collapse?
‘Deaths Of Despair’ In The U.S. Hit Record High – So How Bad Will Things Get When Society Starts To Completely Collapse?
According to a shocking new report from the Commonwealth Fund, the suicide rate in the United States is the highest that it has ever been before. Sadly, the same thing can be said about the death rates from drug overdoses and alcohol. All three death rates are at an all-time record high, and yet our society is still fairly stable at the moment. So if we are seeing this many “deaths of despair” right now, what in the world are things going to look like when our society really begins to start crumbling? Today, Americans have literally thousands of different ways to entertain themselves, and yet we have never been unhappier. One out of every six Americans is taking psychiatric drugs, we are currently dealing with “the worst drug crisis in American history”, and people are killing themselves in record numbers. Nobody likes to be told that they are a failure, but it certainly appears that our nation has been on an extremely self-destructive path for a very long time.
Even though “deaths of despair” have reached record levels, the researchers at the Commonwealth Fund found that there are major regional differences. The following comes from NBC News…
Rates of deaths from suicides, drug overdoses and alcohol have reached an all-time high in the United States, but some states have been hit far harder than others, according to a report released Wednesday by the Commonwealth Fund.
As far as drug overdose deaths are concerned, researchers discovered that the states with the highest death rates were all in northern Appalachia…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Doug Casey: “This is Going to be One for the Record Books”
Doug Casey: “This is Going to be One for the Record Books”
Just because society experiences turmoil doesn’t mean your personal life has to. And a depression doesn’t have to be depressing. Most of the real wealth in the world will still exist—it will just change ownership.
What is a depression?
We’re now at the tail end of a very long, but in many ways a very weak and artificial, economic expansion. At the same time we’ve had one of the strongest securities bull markets in history. Both are the result of trillions of new dollars created over the last decade. Right now very few people are willing to consider the possibility of tough times—let alone The Greater Depression.
But, perverse though it may seem, this is the very best time to think about it. The U.S. economy is a house of cards, built on quicksand, with a tsunami on the way. I urge everyone to read up on the topic. For now, I’ll only briefly touch on the nature of depressions. There are at least three good definitions of the term:
- A period of time when most people’s standard of living drops significantly.
- A period of time when distortions and misallocations of capital are liquidated.
- A period of time when the business cycle climaxes.
Using the first definition, any natural disaster can cause a depression. So can living above your means for long enough. But the worst kind of depression has not just economic effects, but economic causes. That’s where definitions 2 and 3 come in.
What can cause distortions in the way the market operates, causing people to do things they’d otherwise consider unreasonable or uneconomic? Only government action, i.e., coercion. This takes the form of regulation, taxes, and currency inflation.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Just Before The Great Recession, Mountains Of Unsold Goods Piled Up In U.S. Warehouses – And Now It Is Happening Again
Just Before The Great Recession, Mountains Of Unsold Goods Piled Up In U.S. Warehouses – And Now It Is Happening Again
When economic conditions initially begin to slow down, businesses continue to order goods like they normally would but those goods don’t sell as quickly as they previously did. As a result, inventory levels begin to rise, and that is precisely what is happening right now. In fact, the U.S. inventory to sales ratio has risen sharply for five months in a row. This is mirroring the pattern that we witnessed just prior to the financial crisis of 2008, and it is exactly what we would expect to see if a new recession was now beginning. In recent weeks, I have been sharing number after number that indicates that a serious economic slowdown is upon us, and many believe that what is coming will eventually be even worse than what we experienced in 2008.
And even though I write about this stuff every day, I was stunned by how rapidly inventory levels have been rising recently. The following numbers come from Peter Schiff’s website…
This comes on the heels of the largest gain in wholesale inventories in more than five years in December.
Inventories rose 7.7% from a year ago in January. Meanwhile, sales only rose by 2.7%. Overall, total inventories were $669.9 billion at the end of January, up 1.2% from the revised December level.
The increase in durable goods inventories at the wholesale level was even starker. These inventories were up 11.7% from January a year ago, and are up 17% from January two years ago, hitting $415 billion, the highest ever.
Businesses don’t like to have excess inventory, because carrying excess inventory is expensive and cuts into profits. So they try very hard to manage their inventories efficiently, but if the economy slows down unexpectedly that can catch them off guard…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
As The Perfect Storm Approaches, Most Americans Are Partying Instead Of Preparing
As The Perfect Storm Approaches, Most Americans Are Partying Instead Of Preparing
I can’t think of a time when Americans were more apathetic about getting prepared, and yet this is exactly the time when the urgency to get prepared should be at the highest. Earlier today, my wife Meranda and I were discussing the fact that every single element of “the perfect storm” is coming together just as we had anticipated. One by one, the pieces are all falling into place, and I share the most recent things that my research has uncovered with all of you on a daily basis. Unfortunately, most Americans are absolutely convinced that there is no reason to get prepared for hard times because everything is going to be just great. In America today, most people either believe that the future is going to be totally wonderful or that the future will be totally wonderful once we get rid of Trump. Because so many of us have adopted one of these false narratives, most Americans are partying instead of preparing, and that is going to mean big trouble when things really start going haywire.
Are you familiar with “the rule of three”? I just looked it up on Google, and this is how it is defined…
“You can survive for 3 Minutes without air (oxygen) or in icy water. You can survive for 3 Hours without shelter in a harsh environment (unless in icy water) You can survive for 3 Days without water (if sheltered from a harsh environment) You can survive for 3 Weeks without food (if you have water and shelter)”
Of course these numbers are not exact. For example, many have gone without food for more than 3 weeks without serious problems. But in general, this is a pretty good guideline for survival.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Just 3 sessions of aerobic exercise per week can relieve clinical depression
Just 3 sessions of aerobic exercise per week can relieve clinical depression
(Natural News) A systematic review published in the journal Depression and Anxietysuggests that aerobic exercise has significant antidepressant effects for people with clinical depression. More specifically, the review reported that three 45-minute sessions of moderate-intensity aerobic exercise every week may relieve clinical depression.
A team of researchers from Greece, the U.K., and Canada evaluated the antidepressant effects of aerobic exercise on people suffering from clinical depression. The research team looked at 11 studies with a total of 455 adult participants.
Instead of taking antidepressant drugs – which is the conventional treatment for depression – the participants underwent supervised moderate-intensity aerobic exercise for an average of 45 minutes, thrice a week for a period of 9.2 weeks. (Related: Stopping exercise can plunge people back into depression after only THREE DAYS, study concludes.)
The results showed that the exercise routine significantly improved the symptoms of depression, regardless of their severity. In addition, in trials for individuals with a lower risk of clinical depression, aerobic exercise produced moderate-to-large antidepressant effects. For trials with short?term exercise interventions or up to four weeks, exhibited large antidepressant effects.
Based on these findings, the research team concluded that aerobic exercise can relieve symptoms of depression and may be used as an effective treatment for this mental illness.
More on depression
Depression is a life-threatening and burdensome mental illness. In recent years, the number of people suffering from this mental illness has increased. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), around 300 million people around the world suffer from depression. Furthermore, it is estimated that 15 percent of the adult population will experience depression at some point in their lives.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
