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The Rumors are that Turkey Will Default
The Rumors are that Turkey Will Default The rumors running around is that Turkey will default as Erdogan decides to move to align with Iran and Russia and leave the West behind. While there have been speculative attacks on the Turkish economy and US tariffs and sanctions have been detrimental, the initial causes of this growing monetary […]
Looks Like Italian Default is Back on the Menu
Looks Like Italian Default is Back on the Menu Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini was right to call out the EU over the failure of the bridge in Genoa this week. It was an act of cheap political grandstanding but one that ultimately rings very true. It’s a perfect moment to shake people out of […]
Russell Napier: “Turkey Will Be The Largest EM Default Of All Time”
Russell Napier: “Turkey Will Be The Largest EM Default Of All Time” Regular readers of the Fortnightly will know that The Solid Ground has long forecast a major debt default in Turkey. More specifically, the forecast remains that the country will impose capital controls enforcing a near total loss of US$500bn of credit assets held […]
Five Pillars of Debt Default
Five Pillars of Debt Default Regular readers of Gold Goats ‘n Guns know that I’ve been handicapping a major sovereign debt default to begin here in 2018 or early 2019. But, what do I mean by that? How does a sovereign debt default come about? And who will default? There are a staggering number of factors […]
Learning from America’s Forgotten Default
Bettmann/Getty Images Learning from America’s Forgotten Default One of the most pervasive myths about the United States is that the federal government has never defaulted on its debts. There’s just one problem: it’s not true, and while few people remember the “gold clause cases” of the 1930s, that episode holds valuable lessons for leaders today. […]
Can US Russian Sanctions Start A Financial Crisis?
Can US Russian Sanctions Start A Financial Crisis? The US sanctions against Russia are pointless and are placing the West at risk the politicians are too stupid to even comprehend. Already, some Russian companies have asked the government for liquidity injections of up to $2 billion. Even the world’s second-largest aluminum producer Rusal has asked […]
Oil Market Fears: War, Default And Nuclear Weapons
Oil Market Fears: War, Default And Nuclear Weapons The U.S. is one of the few areas of the world in which there is an energy investment boom underway, a development that could smooth out the uncertainties of geopolitical events around the world. At the same time, outside of the U.S., there is a deterioration of […]
Turkey – Default or War?
Turkey – Default or War? QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, My father was ______ the banker who commissioned you to do the Turkish lira hedging project in 1983. He passed away as you know. I found this material in his files on Turkey that you apparently published back in 1985. Some articles are saying that Turkey is […]
Cowen: Shutdown Brings “More Default Risk Than The Market Realizes”
Cowen: Shutdown Brings “More Default Risk Than The Market Realizes” Echoing almost verbatim the bleak outlook on the US government shutdown laid out by Goldman on Friday in which the bank said the government closure could last “up to a few weeks” and become dangerous once it approaches the timing of the debt ceiling, Cowen’s […]
The Long and Winding Road to a Haircut
Federico Parra/Getty Images The Long and Winding Road to a Haircut There are significant differences between Puerto Rico and Venezuela regarding the origins of their economic crises, their political systems, their relationship with the US and the rest of the world, and much else. Nonetheless, some notable similarities are likely to emerge as their debt […]
Venezuela, PDVSA CDS Triggered: ISDA Says Credit Event Has Occured
Venezuela, PDVSA CDS Triggered: ISDA Says Credit Event Has Occured In a long overdue, and not exactly surprising decision, moments ago the ISDA Determination Committee decided, after punting for three days in a row, that a Failure to Pay Credit Event has occured with respect to both the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela as well as […]
Venezuela Signs $3.2 Billion Debt Restructuring Deal With Russia
Venezuela Signs $3.2 Billion Debt Restructuring Deal With Russia As Venezuela teeters right on the brink of complete financial collapse, Bloomberg reports that Russia has agreed to restructure roughly $3.2 billion in outstanding obligations. While details of the restructuring agreement are scarce, both sides reported that the deal spreads payments out over 10 years with […]
Venezuela Defaults On A Debt Payment – Is This The First Domino To Fall?
Venezuela Defaults On A Debt Payment – Is This The First Domino To Fall? Did you know that Venezuela just went into default? This should be an absolutely enormous story, but the mainstream media is being very quiet about it. Wall Street and other major financial centers around the globe could potentially be facing hundreds […]
S&P Downgrades Venezuela To “Selective Default” After Bondholder Meeting Devolves Into Total Chaos
S&P Downgrades Venezuela To “Selective Default” After Bondholder Meeting Devolves Into Total Chaos Creditors had little expectations from today’s ad hoc meeting with “soon-to-default” Venezuela, and with good reason: not only was the meeting attended by several sanctioned Venezuelan officials, potentially jeopardizing the legal status of any bondholders who voluntarily appeared at the Caracas meeting […]
