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Tag Archives: commodity price collapse
Australian Housing Illusion Set to Burst
Australian Housing Illusion Set to Burst Possibly driving an already weak economy into recession. Every day, we have investment banks and others telling us that the Australian housing party is over. Estimates for price declines over the next year or so vary from 7.5% to a plunge of 25%. Even the Reserve Bank of Australia […]
What’s up with the global economy, and where do we go from here?
What’s up with the global economy, and where do we go from here? A deflationary spiral, such as is now becoming evident globally, acts as a natural poison. It now appears that the grand yearly addition to total human wealth, the global GNP, is no longer growing. If so, this means the world is headed […]
Is The Oil And Gas Fire Sale About To Start?
Is The Oil And Gas Fire Sale About To Start? Much has been written about the mounting pile of debt for U.S. oil companies (not to mention the well-known Brazilian oil giant). Not that long ago, many oil and gas companies secured at least a part of their revenue by hedging contracts. Bloomberg already reported in June that many of […]
Macroeconomic Instability For Emerging Markets Thanks To Commodity Bust
Macroeconomic Instability For Emerging Markets Thanks To Commodity Bust The bust in commodity prices is sending ripples through the world of emerging markets. Countries depending on resource extraction and exports of commodities have run into a brick wall this year the prices collapsed for all sorts of materials – oil, gas, coal, gold, copper, and […]
How Big an Oil Glut is There Really?
How Big an Oil Glut is There Really? Revisiting Crude Oil Beginning in late August we have frequently discussed the possibility that a significant low in crude oil prices could be imminent in spite of the “obvious” lousy fundamentals. As blind luck would have it, the first of these articles (entitled “Is Crude Oil Close to a Low?”) was […]
Bernanke’s Balderdash
Bernanke’s Balderdash The US and world economies are drifting inexorably into the next recession owing to the deflationary collapse of commodities, capital spending and world trade. These are the inevitable “morning after” consequence of the 20-year global credit binge which has now reached its apogee. The apparent global boom during that period was actually a central bank driven excursion […]
With a Collapse in Commodity Prices, What Happens Next?
With a Collapse in Commodity Prices, What Happens Next? This has to be a scary time for virtually all commodities investors, whether one is talking about investing in commodities directly or in commodities companies. From oil to aluminum, nearly all commodities are not just trading near multi-year lows, but multi-decade lows. Bloomberg recently noted that commodities are […]
IMF downgrades Canadian growth outlook to 1% for 2015
IMF downgrades Canadian growth outlook to 1% for 2015 Risks for the world include low commodities prices, China’s slowdown and rate hikes The IMF has downgraded its outlook for Canadian growth to one per cent this year because of the impact of lower oil and commodities prices. It also has revised its expectations for global […]
Six Reasons Natural Gas Prices Are Staying Down
Six Reasons Natural Gas Prices Are Staying Down The critical natural gas transit country, Ukraine, reached a supply agreement in the last week of September with the EU’s largest fuel supply partner: Russia. One could argue that this agreement could actually have come too late. Natural gas supply to Europe heading into winter 2015 seems more secure […]
How Bad Can This Get, And How Fast?
How Bad Can This Get, And How Fast? There’s so much negative real bad economic and financial news out there that it’s hard to choose a ‘favorite’, but I guess I’m going to have to go with what underlies and ‘structures’ it all, the IIF stating that for the first time since 1988 and the […]
A Hapless Brazil Incurs Massive Losses On FX Swaps Amid Currency Carnage
A Hapless Brazil Incurs Massive Losses On FX Swaps Amid Currency Carnage As we’ve documented extensively of late, a host of idiosyncratic political factors have served to exacerbate what was already a very, very bad situation for emerging markets. This dynamic is most readily apparent in Brazil and Turkey, and although Ankara probably has a […]
Chinese Cash Flow Shocker: More Than Half Of Commodity Companies Can’t Pay The Interest On Their Debt
Chinese Cash Flow Shocker: More Than Half Of Commodity Companies Can’t Pay The Interest On Their Debt Earlier today, Macquarie released a must-read report titled “Further deterioration in China’s corporate debt coverage”, in which the Australian bank looks at the Chinese corporate debt bubble (a topic familiar to our readers since 2012) however not in terms […]
Australia’s “Black Swan Moment”
Australia’s “Black Swan Moment” Wayne Swan, Treasurer of Australia from 2007 to 2013, Deputy Prime Minister and the Deputy Leader of the Labor Party from 2010 to 2013, who thought he saved the Australian economy but just delayed the inevitable, is now blaming everyone but himself for the downward spiral: Image source: Twitter As I argued in my […]
Brazilian Nightmare Worsens On Bad Budget Data, Record Low Confidence, Horrific Government Approval Ratings
Brazilian Nightmare Worsens On Bad Budget Data, Record Low Confidence, Horrific Government Approval Ratings Last month, in “‘No Recovery For You!’ Brazil Officially Enters Recession, Goldman Calls Numbers ‘Disquieting’”, we outlined Brazil’s July fiscal performance and came away believing that the country had little chance of hitting its primary fiscal surplus targets. Here’s what we […]
The Baby Boomer Survival Guide (Part II)
The Baby Boomer Survival Guide (Part II) A Lehman Moment for Commodities? LONDON – Today, we continue our philosophical look at what you should do if you are running out of time and money. (You can catch up on Part I here.) Where do we begin? With how to add wealth? Or how to lose it? The […]
