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New Harbor: A Time For Staying Out Of Harms Way
New Harbor: A Time For Staying Out Of Harms Way Preserving your financial capital Given the brutal start to the markets in the first three weeks of 2016, we thought it a good time to check in with the team at New Harbor Financial. We have had them on our podcast periodically over the past […]
Looking for Sanity in an Insane World
Looking for Sanity in an Insane World Why has China become so important? Largely because global investors are in this transition mode and do not understand how or why the foundation of everything is changing beneath them. The market turmoil in China spread around the world on Thursday as global investors took their lead from China as […]
How Big is the Bust in Commodities Really?
How Big is the Bust in Commodities Really? Have all the “Supercycle” Gains been Wiped Out? We have frequently come across articles lately that are purporting to show that commodity prices have in the meantime declined below the lows that obtained at the start of the last bull market. Yesterday Zerohedge e.g. posted a chart from Sean […]
2016: Oil Limits and the End of the Debt Supercycle
2016: Oil Limits and the End of the Debt Supercycle What is ahead for 2016? Most people don’t realize how tightly the following are linked: Growth in debt Growth in the economy Growth in cheap-to-extract energy supplies Inflation in the cost of producing commodities Growth in asset prices, such as the price of shares of stock […]
Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Real Financial Risks of 2016
PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Real Financial Risks of 2016 Worry less about the banking system, but commodities, epidemics and climate volatility could be trouble How should we think about financial risks in 2016? First, worry less about the banking system. Financial institutions today are less fragile than they were a few […]
This Is Going To Happen In 2016: “One Of The Greatest Commodity Plays Of All Time”
This Is Going To Happen In 2016: “One Of The Greatest Commodity Plays Of All Time” While stock markets held strong near their all-time highs, the last year saw massive financial destruction in global commodities markets. Oil, gold, silver, steel, coal and other raw materials experienced price drops not seen since just before the the Crash of 2008. […]
2016 Is An Easy Year To Predict
2016 Is An Easy Year To Predict No year is ever easy to predict, if only because if it were, that would take all the fun out of life. But still, predictions for 2016 look quite a bit easier than other years. This is because a whole bunch of irreversible things happened in 2015 that […]
The Confidence Game Is Ending
The Confidence Game Is Ending Immediately after the Fed hiked interest rates last Wednesday – after sitting at 0% for 7 years – markets acted pretty much as one might expect. The Fed tightens monetary policy when the economy is strong so rising stock prices, rising interest rates and a strong dollar are all things […]
Christmas Present
Christmas Present Theory du jour: the new Star Wars movie is sucking in whatever meager disposable lucre remains among the economically-flayed mid-to-lower orders of America. In fact, I propose a new index showing an inverse relationship between Star Wars box office receipts and soundness of the financial commonweal. In other words, Star Wars is all that remains of the US economy […]
Plunging Commodities Interfere With The New World Order
Plunging Commodities Interfere With The New World Order Anglo American, a British company, and one of the world’s biggest miners, and a ‘producer’ (actually just a miner, how did those two terms ever get mixed up?!) of platinum (world no. 1), diamonds, copper, nickel, iron ore and coal, said today it would scrap dividends AND […]
The Commodity Roller Coaster
The Commodity Roller Coaster CAMBRIDGE – The global commodity super-cycle is hardly a new phenomenon. Though the details vary, primary commodity exporters tend to act out the same story, and economic outcomes tend to follow recognizable patterns. But the element of predictability in the path of the commodity-price cycle, like that in the course of […]
Junk Bonds Under Pressure
Junk Bonds Under Pressure While the Stock Market is Partying … There are seemingly always “good reasons” why troubles in a sector of the credit markets are supposed to be ignored – or so people are telling us, every single time. Readers may recall how the developing problems in the sub-prime sector of the mortgage […]
The Grand Finale: “World War III Will Be A Fight Over Basic Human Needs – Food and Other Commodities”
The Grand Finale: “World War III Will Be A Fight Over Basic Human Needs – Food and Other Commodities” As political tensions heat up it is becoming clear that the world’s super powers are vying for control of resources like oil, water, metals and food. And though developed nations have thus far avoided any significant clashes […]
