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Tag Archives: volatility
Steen Jakobsen: Now Is The Time To Be In Capital-Preservation Mode
Steen Jakobsen: Now Is The Time To Be In Capital-Preservation Mode Saxo Bank’s CIO predicts a 15%+ market correction soon Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Economist of Saxo Bank, is sounding a clear warning of an arriving market correction. Over-inflated asset prices, over-crowded trades, anemic market liquidity, and a continued decline in the […]
Never Mind Volatility: Systemic Risk Is Rising
Never Mind Volatility: Systemic Risk Is Rising So who’s holding the hot potato of systemic risk now? Everyone. One of the greatest con jobs of the past 9 years is the status quo’s equivalence of risk and volatility: risk = volatility: so if volatility is low, then risk is low. Wrong: volatility once reflected specific […]
Is Volatility in Oil Price on the Way, Again ?
Is Volatility in Oil Price on the Way, Again ? Experts say that you shouldn’t look at your pension investments too often as you might make unwise decisions. I don’t follow this advice. The reason that I’m drawn to tending my pension spreadsheet weekly, if not daily, is two-fold. First, I’m told by professionals who […]
The End of (Artificial) Stability
The End of (Artificial) Stability The central banks’/states’ power to maintain a permanent bull market in stocks and bonds is eroding. There is nothing natural about the stability of the past 9 years. The bullish trends in risk assets are artificial constructs of central bank/state policies. As these policies are reduced or lose their effectiveness, the […]
The world in 2018 – Part Three
The world in 2018 – Part Three Mainstream economics seems to have learned little and changed nothing in the last decade, despite the fact that the financial crisis and its aftermath laid bare a number of important issues with its theories and models. Failure to address these issues is making the economics discipline increasingly incapable of […]
$1.2 Trillion Asset Manager: Forget Volatility, The Real Financial Timebomb Is Public Pensions
$1.2 Trillion Asset Manager: Forget Volatility, The Real Financial Timebomb Is Public Pensions As we have reported over and over and over (and over, and over), public pensions are in deep, deep trouble. In addition critical funding shortfalls (U.S. public pensions had just 71.8% of assets required to meet obligations as of June 2016), many of the country’s largest […]
Its Different This Time
IT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME Remember all those bullish studies market pundits were passing around in early January? Do you recall the parroting about “how goes January, the rest of the year follows?” It’s easy to forget, but many market strategists were falling all over themselves bullish just a couple of weeks ago (see Parabolic Moves […]
The stock market swoon and our hatred of (some kinds of) volatility
The stock market swoon and our hatred of (some kinds of) volatility The steepest one-day point drop in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average last week shook stock investors into an awareness that all is not sweetness and light in the financial markets. The sudden downside stock market volatility had been preceded by […]
The world in 2018 – Part Two
The world in 2018 – Part Two ‘The World in 2018’ is a world full of concerns about the future, yet a world that seems to be getting slightly more optimistic about its economic prospects. Ten years after the onset of the financial crisis, there are hopes that the global economy may have turned the corner […]
The Inescapable Reason Why the Financial System Will Fail
girardatlarge.com The Inescapable Reason Why the Financial System Will Fail Credit cannot expand faster than fundamentals forever Modern finance has many complex moving parts, and this complexity masks its inner simplicity. Let’s break down the core dynamics of the current financial system. The Core Dynamic of the “Recovery” and Asset Bubbles: Credit Credit is the […]
2017 Year In Review
Tortoon/Shutterstock 2017 Year In Review Markets fiddle while Rome burns Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed “Year in Review” synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year’s is no exception. As with past years, he has graciously selected PeakProsperity.com as the site where it will be published in full. It’s quite longer than […]
Are markets Really as Calm as They Seem?
ARE MARKETS REALLY AS CALM AS THEY SEEM? Indicators for financial market “stress” have reached their lowest levels in decades. For instance, stock market volatility has never been this low since the early 1990s. Credit spreads have been shrinking, and prices for credit default swaps have fallen to pre-crisis levels. In fact, investors are no […]
The ‘Hyper-Crash’ Is Coming – It’s Not The Everything Bubble, It’s The Global Short Volatility Bubble
The ‘Hyper-Crash’ Is Coming – It’s Not The Everything Bubble, It’s The Global Short Volatility Bubble Two weeks ago, we discussed the recent report from Artemis Capital Management, “Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk – Reflexivity in the Shadows of Black Monday 1987”, authored by Christopher Cole. See “In the Shadows Of Black Monday – […]
The $200 Trillion Question
The $200 Trillion Question Perhaps the most remarkable trend in global macroeconomics over the past two decades has been the stunning drop in the volatility of economic growth. In the United States, for example, quarterly output volatility has fallen by more than half since the mid-1980’s. Obviously, moderation in output movements did not occur everywhere […]
Volatility on Steroids
Volatility on Steroids Salvador Dalí White calm 1936It’s been a while since we last heard from longtime friend of the Automatic Earth Dr. Nelson Lebo III, New Englander living in Wanganui, New Zealand. Nelson has written a fine collection of articles on this site through the years. Of course I thought, when I first saw […]
