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#219. The unravelling begins
#219. The unravelling begins THE REALITY OF SCARCITY, THE SCARCITY OF REALITY In nineteenth-century England, pictures of great events and famous personages could be purchased “penny-plain or tuppence-coloured”. Where the world economy is concerned, the price of flattering colouration has soared into the trillions, but the value of a “penny-plain” view has never been higher. The […]
#218. The real state of the economy
#218. The real state of the economy A FUNCTIONAL SYNOPSIS As this might be the last article to appear here before the festive season, I’d like to take this opportunity to wish everyone a very merry Christmas and a happy and prosperous New Year, and to thank you for your interest in, and your contributions to, […]
#216. It’s now
#216. It’s now TIMING THE MOMENT OF FRACTURE When and how can we know that a change of direction is fundamental and lasting, rather than a temporary departure from established trends? That, in essence, is the call we need to make now. Far from being “transitory”, current conditions – including rising inflation, surging energy prices and […]
#215. The price of equilibrium
#215. The price of equilibrium FUTURITY, REALITY AND THE COMING FINANCIAL CORRECTION The simplest way to define the current economic and broader situation is that consensus expectations and realistically probable outcomes have become polar opposites. One of the most predictable consequences of this disparity is a sharp fall, both in asset pricing and in the viability of […]
What is Surplus Energy?
What is Surplus Energy? I’ve been meaning to write an article featuring Dr. Tim Morgan’s blog for quite some time due to the fact that he has quite an awesome site. You can find his blog here, Surplus Energy Economics. Many people may find the word economics in the name somewhat off-putting, but these economics are more about energy […]
#214. Needed – a new model tin-opener
#214. Needed – a new model tin-opener THE LIMITS OF TRANSITION Logically considered, 2021 ought to have been the place where old assumptions go to die. In many ways, it is. Specifically, orthodox, money-based economic interpretation is being debunked. Current events are demonstrating that the economy isn’t, after all, entirely or even primarily a financial system. […]
It’s all happening…..
It’s all happening….. Anyone who has been following this blog long enough will know that I predicted 2020 was crunch time and that we were heading into the mother of all energy crises. As I write, the UK is in deep turmoil, Germany is making contingency plans for blackouts, Lebanon has turned power off, China’s rationing electricity and India is doing the same. Low rainfall […]
The case for contingency planning
The case for contingency planning LONG-ODDS BET OR A PORTFOLIO OF SCENARIOS? An intelligent investor – as distinct from a gambler – doesn’t put all his or her money on a single counter. He doesn’t stake everything on a single stock, a single sector, a single asset class, a single country or a single currency. […]
#202. The shape of things to come
#202. The shape of things to come As, when and if the coronavirus pandemic recedes into the past, there’s a widespread assumption that we’ll see the welcome return of a ‘normality’ defined to include “growth” in the economy. The big change looking forward will, we’re assured, be the replacement of climate-harming oil, gas and coal with […]



