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The Prophet
The Prophet Oh how I miss George Carlin. Yes he was mainly known as a stand up comedian, but he was more than that, much more. He was a social critic, he challenged that status quo, he dared to go where society wasn’t prepared to go: Look at ourselves critically. He did it with biting […]
State of Denial
State of Denial Once again investors are made to believe that nothing matters. Only 2 trading days after Friday’s sell off $NDX made new all time history highs. Only 3 days after Friday’s sell-off $SPX made a new all time closing high. Only 4 days after Friday’s sell off $DJIA, $SPX and $NDX make new […]
What if
What if What if bears were right all along? What if it’s not different this time? What if this Fed liquidity inspired rally produced precisely the kind of exuberant final thrust we often see at the end of business cycles? After all, people were really bullish in 2007, people were really bullish in 2000, both final […]
Hubris
Hubris One day this bull market will end and the age of the central banking enabled debt bubble will be exposed for the hubris that it is and all the sins of “potential side effects” that central bankers warn about but never do anything about will come back to haunt all of us. It’ll be […]
He Knows
He Knows Last week we found out that Dallas Fed president Kaplan knows that the Fed is creating excess and imbalances in stocks. Yes, bloating the Fed’s balance sheet by over $400B in four months has a massive impact on stock markets. And billions of repo liquidity unleashed each day can be seen impacting the daily […]
Mind the Gap
Mind the Gap Amid all the ferocious market rallying there’s a gap building and nobody seems to notice, and nobody seems to care. I say: Mind the gap. The banking index, much like the rest of the market, has been rallying furiously ever since the Fed began expanding its balance sheet on an accelerated pace […]
Intervention
Intervention The Fed has gone into full intervention mode. Not only into full intervention mode, but accelerated intervention mode. Not just a little “mid cycle adjustment” but full bore daily interventions to the tune of dozens of billions of dollars every single day. What’s the crisis? After all we live in the age of trillion […]
Measured Move
Measured Move Having fun with the endless chop that started in early August? Markets are consolidating inside a well defined price range. 2945 on the top end and 2822 on the bottom end of the range for $SPX. That range was established on August 2 and August 5th. Since then markets have been bouncing inside […]
Keep it Simple
Keep it Simple Markets blow up on Friday on a series of tweets, markets jam higher on the pronouncement of dubious phone calls on Monday. The rapid back and forth has many heads spinning and makes for dramatic headlines as people are searching for explanations. To which I say: Keep it simple, especially in the age […]
CONfidence
CONfidence Markets are subject to a giant con game. The game of CONfidence. Confidence must be maintained under all circumstances or we’re heading into a global recession first and then a US recession to follow. Consider the macro context here: Nine major economiesare either in recession or on the verge of it. This includes Germany, UK, Italy, […]
The Most Dangerous Game
The Most Dangerous Game How can I not talk about the Fed? How can I not talk about the daily jawboning? It is all around us. Every. Single. Day. And it keeps working. I feel like I’m being reduced to a loon conspiracy theorist documenting the very reality of it. But I’m not. From my […]
The Rise of Insanity
The Rise of Insanity Everybody is trampling all over themselves to raise bullish targets. $SPX 3,300, $SPX 3,350, $SPX 3500, do I hear Dow 31,500? Yes I am. The big driver of course the Fed and central banks cutting rates again to save the global economy. And amid all the hype and excitement you see headlines like […]
Distortion
Distortion This week we entered the Sell Zone as I called it last weekend. Overnight today $ES hit nearly 3004 and is currently 23 handles lower on the news that the latest NFP report beat while unemployment ticked slightly higher. Whether the sell is now in full swing or more highs are still to come is an […]
It IS Different This Time
It IS Different This Time They’re right. It IS different this time. It’s worse. Much, much worse. What is? Everything. In terms of preparedness for the next recession that is. Debt is higher than ever, be it corporate debt, government debt, central banks balance sheets, available ammunition to deal with a new recession, wealth inequality, […]
