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Finnish grid operator warns of rolling blackouts this winter.
Gazprom stopped in May all gas deliveries to Finland.
Norway is considering limiting its electricity exports.

Finland should be prepared for possible power outages this winter in case of shortfalls in electricity supply, the Finnish grid operator said on Tuesday, in yet another warning of an energy crunch in Europe after gas supply from Russia was severely reduced.

In Finland’s case, Gazprom stopped in May all gas deliveries to Russia’s neighbor to the West, making Finland the third EU member state with Russian pipeline supply cut off after Poland and Bulgaria. The halt of Russian supply to Finland took place days after Finland—together with its Scandinavian neighbor Sweden—formally applied to join NATO in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia has warned both countries against applying to become NATO members.

Finland gets up to 70 percent of the gas it uses from Russia, but gas doesn’t have a large share in the overall energy mix and accounts for 5 percent of total energy consumption.

“The war in Europe and the exceptional situation on the energy market have increased uncertainties related to the availability of electricity. As a result of the great uncertainties, Finns should be prepared for power outages caused by possible electricity shortages this coming winter,” Finnish grid operator Fingrid said today.

According to Fingrid, the Olkiluoto 3 nuclear power plant would compensate for the missing Russian imports.

“In practice, in the event of an electricity shortage, Fingrid will inform the local distribution network companies of the total amount of power to be disconnected from each distribution network company’s area, and after this, power outages will be recycled as two-hour outages until the electricity shortage has ended,” said Tuomas Rauhala, Senior Vice President, Power System Operation, at Fingrid.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Norway Considers Limiting Electricity Exports To Prevent Domestic Crunch

August 6, 2022

Norway Considers Limiting Electricity Exports To Prevent Domestic Crunch

Norway may soon introduce a rule to reduce its vast electricity exports if levels at reservoirs for hydropower generation drop to critically low levels in a bid to prevent power shortages and further rises in energy bills domestically.

Norway’s Energy Minister Terje Aasland told Norwegian media, as quoted by Bloomberg, that the government could introduce limits on electricity exports if the water in reservoirs drops to “very low” levels.

A cut in Norwegian power exports would be felt in Northwest Europe, which itself is grappling with issues at coal and nuclear power generating plants due to the low water level in rivers limiting coal supply via barges and warm river water unsuitable for cooling nuclear reactors.

As a result of these issues and the uncertainty over natural gas supply from Russia, power prices in Germany for the year ahead jumped to a record on Friday.

This summer’s dry weather across Europe has affected Norwegian hydropower, which accounts for 90% of Norwegian power generation. The remaining around 10% of the electricity supply in Norway comes from wind power.

While Europe scrambles to procure natural gas for winter power generation and heating, Western Europe’s biggest oil and gas producer, Norway, has a whole different power problem this summer—dry weather, which depletes water reservoirs for hydropower.

Although Norway doesn’t use gas for power generation, Europe’s gas and energy crisis is felt there, too. In recent weeks, hydropower producers have been discouraged from tapping more water for hydropower generation to save water for the winter. Operators were also asked not to export too much electricity to the rest of Europe as reservoirs are not as full as in previous years, and not to rely on imports from Europe, which is struggling with energy supply. Some Norwegian utilities, including top electricity producer Statkraft, have followed the plea from transmission system operator Statnet not to produce too much electricity now.

A potential ‘black swan’ for US oil prices is being overlooked: unreliable electricity grids

July 13, 2022

A potential ‘black swan’ for US oil prices is being overlooked: unreliable electricity grids

Electricity grid problems in the US are a potential “black swan” that could wreak havoc in energy markets, according to Cornerstone Futures research director Brynne Kelly.

In an analyst note, the energy trader argues that failing power grids and electricity shortages could be the next vulnerability in the supply chain for oil and its products, such as gasoline.

Those under-the-surface risks are being overlooked, and that makes them a possible “black swan” — an unpredicted event with a severe impact. While crude oil isn’t much used to generate electricity, power itself is needed to make oil, Kelly noted.

“Said another way, a failing power grid COULD BE the next oil chain supply problem,” she said.

“Problems with power grids across the US and other countries are a potential catalyst for chaos in energy markets that are underappreciated.”

The reliability of the US electricity grid is being taken for granted, Kelly said. But it’s under pressure as the industry goes through a mandated shift from fossil fuels to clean energy sources, and with the peak summer demand ahead.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

On Magical Thinking

July 4, 2022

On Magical Thinking

In which the motivation behind the Honest Sorcerer gets revealed

Image credit: Patrick Hendry via Unsplash

My last article on the future of electricity has received quite a few critical comments both from proponents of nuclear as well as solar energy, accusing me with ‘denigrating’ their favored solution. The aim of this is project, the Honest Sorcerer however, was not — and never will be — to focus on a narrow set of magic bullet ‘solutions’, intended to solve a specific issue, while presuming that the rest will be taken care of automatically.

There are a few things, however, which must be understood before we can move on. If you are not on board with the following, no problem, give yourself a break and let them sink in, in their own pace.

This civilization is just as unsustainable as the hundreds of others it now follows into the dustbin of history. High tech modernity exemplified by, but certainly not limited to, the Western states is way past redemption: there are way too many trends working against it. The end of a civilization is a classic example of a predicament becoming fulfilled: it happens no matter what you do and there are no ways to stop it. People can still do a lot to adapt to the situation as it evolves and ease the passing of an old system though; making its death less painful then it otherwise would be, and saving at least some of the cultural achievements from perishing.
It follows that there is no such thing as individuals redeeming their own civilization, especially this one. Unlike its predecessors, this civilization has went global…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Future of Electricity

June 28, 2022

The Future of Electricity

Things do not bode well for the future of electricity, especially in the ‘developed’ world, while the ‘developing’ countries are already experiencing serious issues. Sri Lanka. Pakistan. China. The world does not seem to be able to move enough electrons to satisfy demand. Surprising? Well, not in a finite world.

Where do we get electricity from?

I tell you no big secret: electricity is not coming from the socket in the wall, or the wires above your street. Electricity is generated mainly in huge power plants which provide a stable baseload for the grid. This makes sure that you always get power at a standard voltage and frequency whenever you plug in your washing machine or hair dryer, no matter where you live in the country.

Should any of these two parameters deteriorate, your device could easily malfunction, catch fire or cause an electric shock. Solar roofs and other intermittent (i.e. unstable) sources of electricity are nice additions to power plants, but can never generate the high quality energy required by the myriads of technological devices from water pumps, to street lighting, intensive care units and refrigeration. With the addition of batteries, inverters and converters ‘renewables’ are indeed able to simulate a stable grid frequency and voltage, but as always: there is a catch. More on that later.

All these technicalities would be of no concern to you in a fairy-tale world of infinite resources, where coal, gas, oil, minerals, forests never deplete, and which could take up an unlimited amount of pollution as a bonus feature. Sorry to disappoint you, but none of this is true to our world: resources are depleting fast, while pollution kills life on this planet at an alarming pace.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Brace For Electricity Shortages That Will Scare the Living Daylights Out of You

June 2, 2022

Brace For Electricity Shortages That Will Scare the Living Daylights Out of You

Citi: Soaring Energy Bills Raise Chances Of Windfall Taxes In Europe

May 24, 2022

Citi: Soaring Energy Bills Raise Chances Of Windfall Taxes In Europe

Gas and electricity bills in Europe could jump to 4.5 percent of household disposable income in 2023.
Rising utility bills raise pressure on politicians to implement windfall tax.
Rising energy commodity prices weigh most on Eastern European countries.

The higher the energy bills in Europe become, the higher the chances are for a windfall tax on energy companies and utilities, as governments will be forced to ease the growing pressure on household finances, Citigroup says.

Europe as a whole could see a utility bill rise of over 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) through 2024, Citigroup Global Markets analysts Piotr Dzieciolowski, Jenny Ping, and Antonella Bianchessi wrote in a note on Monday carried by Bloomberg.

Gas and electricity bills in Europe could jump to 4.5 percent of household disposable income in 2023, up from 3.5 percent in 2021. The utility bills could further rise to 4.8 percent of household disposable income in 2024, according to Citi analysts.

In countries in Eastern Europe, where the prices of commodities account for a larger share of bills, the disposable income is likely to shrink the most, the investment bank says.

Per a Citi survey, one-quarter of respondents across Europe aged 18 to 29 say they would not be able to pay their bills on time if bills rose by one-tenth.

Bills have been surging in Europe since the autumn of 2021 when the natural gas shortage led to higher gas and electricity prices. The Russian invasion of Ukraine further strained household income as utility bills surged with the skyrocketing commodity prices.

Spain and Portugal set a cap on the price of gas used for generating electricity, after the EU allowed them to do so, acknowledging their exceptional energy requirements.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

There might not be enough electricity to go around this summer in Michigan. That could require planned outages

May 17, 2022

There might not be enough electricity to go around this summer in Michigan. That could require planned outages

High-voltage tower and cables — The power grid operator for Michigan and 14 other states says there may not be enough electricity to go around this summer, especially in northern states. That increases the risk of planned power outages.

MISO, the operator of the electric grid that includes Michigan, is warning there may not be enough electricity to go around this summer, which is forecast to be warmer than usual. That could mean controlled outages as an emergency measure.

MISO says the summer peak forecast is 124 Gigawatts, with only 119 GW of regularly available generation.

The group’s seasonal assessment indicates “capacity shortfalls in both the north and central regions of MISO and leaving those areas at increased risk of temporary, controlled outages to preserve the integrity of the bulk electric system,” according to JT Smith, executive director – market operations at MISO.

MISO said it has never taken the step of implementing controlled outages in Michigan before.

DTE said it has extensive preparedness plans in place in the event of a “regional MISO issue.”

The utility said it will be bringing its new 1,150 MW gas plant online in June, and said it has a large number of customers on voluntary interruptible rates whose service can be curtailed, if necessary, to maintain system reliability.

Consumers Energy said it is confident it has a reliable supply of energy to serve its customers, and “we will answer the call” if MISO asks utilities to take any actions on the hottest summer days.

The utility said it is prepared to ask large industrial customers to use less energy, and, if necessary, to ask all customers to voluntarily reduce energy use.

Nuclear Power Is No Solution For the World’s Energy Problems

February 18, 2022

NUCLEAR POWER IS NO SOLUTION FOR THE WORLD’S ENERGY PROBLEMS

Nuclear power is no solution to the world’s energy problems. Not even close.

It’s important for electric power but electric power is not even 40% of the world’s energy supply—nor is it expected to increase much over the next 30 years.

IEA projects that nuclear power will account for only 5.5% of world energy supply in 2050 (Figure 1). That’s an increase of only 0.5% from 2020.

Figure 1. IEA most-likely scenario is for nuclear to account for 5.5% of world energy supply in 2050—an increase of 0.5% from 2020. Source: IEA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Nuclear power has limited application beyond electric power generation and some heating capability. Yet the outlook is not much better for nuclear to increase as a major source of electric power either. IEA’s most-likely scenario is for nuclear to account for only 12.5% of electric power supply in 2050 (Figure 2).

Figure 2. IEA most-likely scenario is for nuclear to account for 12.5% of electric power supply in 2050. Source: IEA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Electric power currently accounts for about 39% of world energy supply (Figure 3). IEA estimates that it will only increase to about 41% by 2050.

Figure 3. Electric power will increase from 39% to 41% of world energy supply by 2050. Source: IEA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2021 is largely in agreement with IEA’s assessment of both electric and nuclear power. Unlike IEA, however, EIA provides data to account for the considerable energy losses during power generation, transmission and distribution. The losses amounted to 64% in 2020 (Table 1).

Table 1. EIA electric and nuclear net power to the electric grid and energy losses. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

When losses are included, net electric power to the grid is expected to increase from 19% in 2020 to 28% in 2050 (Figure 4) instead of 41% in IEA’s evaluation shown above in Figure 3.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Germany To Become Net Power Importer For The First Time Since 2002

January 15, 2022

Germany To Become Net Power Importer For The First Time Since 2002

Europe’s largest economy, Germany, is expected to become a net importer of electricity in 2023 for the first time since 2002 due to retiring coal plants and the nuclear phase-out, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.

Germany plans to switch off all its remaining nuclear power generators by the end of 2022, while it will also retire a large portion of its coal-fired capacity fleet between 2022 and 2024.

Recently, the country has said it would aim to phase out coal by 2030 – eight years ahead of earlier plans. The coal exit for Germany could be more difficult than in other European economies, because the country plans to phase out nuclear power generation by the end of this year.

The new coalition’s agreement in Germany includes, for example, the accelerated phase-out of coal—if possible by 2030—and the faster expansion of renewable energy, the IEA said in its Electricity Market Report – January 2022 published today.

Germany’s remaining nuclear capacity, which provided about 12 percent of total generation in 2021, is due to be phased out by the end of 2022. At the same time, some coal capacity is due to be retired according to the approved coal phase-out plans. Coal capacity is set to decline from 35 GW at the end of 2020 to 30 GW in 2022 and less than 26 GW in 2024, the IEA noted.

The timing of Germany’s nuclear phase-out and accelerated coal phase-out coincides with the ongoing energy crisis in Europe, where natural gas and power prices have jumped to record amid insufficient supply of gas and uneven wind power generation in northwest Europe, including in Germany.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Rolling Blackouts Spread Across Europe Amid Energy Crisis

December 24, 2021

Rolling Blackouts Spread Across Europe Amid Energy Crisis

Europe’s energy crisis worsened this week when Kosovo introduced rolling blackouts to most of its two million citizens, according to Bloomberg.

On Thursday, the Kosovo Energy Distribution Services (KEDS) announced rolling two-hour power blackouts for 2 million people due to an “overload” of its electrical grid.

KEDS asked customers to reduce power given “insufficient internal generation to cover consumption and the global energy crisis.”

Simultaneously, Serbia was forced to cut electricity to customers, Britain’s network operator issued a power supply warning, and France’s nuclear plant outage, all culminated into a perfect storm of straining the continent’s grid, resulting in reduced power supplies and exorbitantly high prices.

Last week, Kosovo’s economy minister, Artane Rizvanolli, said the shuttering of the nation’s main coal-fired power plant had worsened the energy crisis. He said power imports were “extremely costly.”

Grid data from Entso-E shows electricity imports from Albania, Serbia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia plunged from 750 megawatts on Wednesday to about 469 megawatts on Thursday.

Jeremy Weir, CEO of commodities trader Trafigura Group, warned that more European countries could face rolling blackouts in the event of a severe winter.

Eleven European associations (from steel to fertilizers to cement to paper mills) published a memo Thursday indicating energy-intensive companies are paying “unbearably high energy prices” that may force them to shutter operations.

However, there is good news for the continent as benchmark Dutch front-month gas plunged as much as 43% from a peak of 180 euros per megawatt-hour to around 102 euros in the last several days as a flotilla of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers is headed to the fuel-starved continent.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Prepare for lack of electricity” in 2022 says Foxconn founder

December 23, 2021

“Prepare for lack of electricity” in 2022 says Foxconn founder

Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images

The founder and director of Foxconn, the world’s largest contract manufacturer of electronics, Terry Gou, has said that “there will be a shortage of electricity in the next year.”

Gou added that “people should not complain about the future lack of electricity.” Instead, they should “prepare”.

Hon Hai Precision Industry, better known as Foxconn, is a Taiwanese-headquarterd multinational electronics contract manufacturer and an essential supplier for many major international electronics companies, including Apple, Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony. The ongoing power shortages both in mainland China and Taiwan will continue to negatively impact an already strained global supply chain for international tech companies.

As Taiwan has very limited domestic energy resources, it must rely on foreign imports to satisfy its electricity demand. Oil, coal and natural gas made up around 72%% of the island’s total primary energy consumption in 2020, according to GlobalData’s analysis on Taiwan’s thermal power sector. Its energy import dependence is around 98%.

The vast majority of the island’s oil demands are sourced in the Middle East, while its coal mainly comes from Australia, followed by Indonesia and Russia.

Following the growing global volatility in the energy sector and rising prices, Taiwan’s vulnerability to energy market risks has become particularly salient recently. Due to a worldwide rise in demand for thermal energy and the related surging coal prices, Taiwan’s energy supply sector has been facing pressure.

In May, the country imposed power cuts following a spike in electricity demand amid a heatwave and drought and a failure at a power plant. During those months, major semiconductor factories, including the world’s largest chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), imposed phased blackouts to manage the power shortages.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Big Misconception About Electricity

November 26, 2021

Power Grid Failure Remains A Game-Changer

October 17, 2021

Power Grid Failure Remains A Game-Changer

When the power grid fails, modern life rapidly grinds to a halt. This game-changer is an issue we must seriously recognize. Whether we are talking about the grid or soaring electricity cost one thing is very clear, we are very dependent on electricity. This article should be considered a reminder of the fragility of our codependent modern society and how the things we have come to depend on could vanish in a heartbeat. By highlighting some of the vulnerabilities we face, even if they have been voiced by others in the past, at least we raise awareness of some of the dangers we face.News of blackout and energy shortages also raises the question of what is going on and whether we are being “toyed with” by those pushing us towards what they see as a greener future. It could be argued these “outages” are why we need to rapidly, “build back better” the whole grid. Of course, the flip side of that argument is that overzealous environmentalists are causing most of the problems that have resulted in outages. Electricity remains the lubricant of modern life, without it society cannot function. A great deal of damage occurs to the economy when a power outage takes place. People can’t work, food supplies are damaged, and in times of inclement weather, people suffer greatly. Most Americans remember the power outage that gripped much of Texas in February of 2021. It resulted in pipes freezing and bursting and a great deal of suffering.

Blackouts have long been a thing of the past in most major cities but that has started to change. According to Bloomberg, the energy crisis that is rippling through Asia and Europe could unleash similar electricity shortages and blackouts in the United States. Soaring natural gas prices are forcing U.S. utilities to quickly turn to more coal…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Solar Energy on the Frontlines and Old-Fashioned Clotheslines

October 10, 2021

Solar Energy on the Frontlines and Old-Fashioned Clotheslines

Solar energy comes to Earthlings in many ways. Ancient Persians used passive solar architecture. East Africans about the same time funneled cool ocean wind through tunnels to cool themselves.

Now at long last, solar energy is outpacing new fossil fuel and nuclear facilities on price, environmental safety, and speed of installation.

One use of solar that has not received enough attention is drying clothes with clotheslines or clothes racks. Before global warming and our climate crisis became a public concern, some local governments banned backyard clotheslines as community eyesores. Fortunately, 20 states have passed “Right to Dry Laws” that allow people to use this simple low-tech and appropriate technology to reduce fuel consumption.

A big booster of hang-drying your laundry is environmentalist Joe Wachunas from Portland, Oregon. Twenty years ago, while traveling as an exchange student in Italy, he learned that only three percent of Italian households owned a dryer. Italians, he noticed, dried their clothes on clotheslines, high-rise balconies, or in open windows catching sun and cross breezes.

Wachunas has competed against dryers, taking only eight minutes longer to hang up a load of clothes than it takes to load a dryer, (not to mention a trip to and from a laundromat). Also, by line-drying, he estimates a savings of $600 a year per family, and your air-dried materials will last longer and shrink less.

As you might think, the great majority of people in the US use a clothes dryer. About 80 percent of Americans use dryers that gobble up more electricity in a household than other appliances (except for refrigerators). These folks will find moving to clean and green drying has many benefits.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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