Home » Posts tagged 'doug noland' (Page 2)
Tag Archives: doug noland
Weekly Commentary: Short-Term Unsustainable
Weekly Commentary: Short-Term Unsustainable Outstanding Treasury Securities began 2008 at $6.051 TN, or 41% of GDP. Treasuries ended 2019 at $19.019 TN, or 87% of GDP. And then, in only three quarters, Treasuries surged another $3.882 TN to $22.900 TN, or 108% of GDP. We must wait a few weeks for the Fed’s Q4 Z.1 […]
Weekly Commentary: Just the Facts – 12/25/2020
Weekly Commentary: Just the Facts – 12/25/2020 For the Week: The S&P500 slipped 0.2% (up 14.6% y-t-d), while the Dow was little changed (up 5.8%). The Utilities declined 0.9% (down 2.9%). The Banks jumped 3.1% (down 15.0%), and the Broker/Dealers gained 1.9% (up 29.8%). The Transports dipped 0.3% (up 14.9%). The S&P 400 Midcaps rose […]
Weekly Commentary: Monetary Disorder In Extremis
Weekly Commentary: Monetary Disorder In Extremis November non-farm payrolls gained 245,000, only about half the mean forecasts – and down from October’s 610,000. It was the weakest job growth since April’s employment debacle. U.S. equities rallied on the disappointing news. A few Bloomberg headlines captured the aura: “Stocks Gain as Jobs Miss Boosts Stimulus Bets;” […]
Weekly Commentary: Scorched Earth
Weekly Commentary: Scorched Earth November 18 – Reuters (Rodrigo Campos): “Global debt is expected to soar to a record $277 trillion by the end of the year as governments and companies continue to spend in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Institute of International Finance said in a report… The IIF… said debt ballooned already […]
Weekly Commentary: Well, That’s Some Weird… Stuff
Weekly Commentary: Well, That’s Some Weird… Stuff The “average stock” Value Line Arithmetic Index jumped 6.4% for the week. The NYSE Arca Oil Index surged 19.8%, with the Philadelphia Oil Services Index up 17.4%. The KWB Bank Index rose 11.5%, as the Nasdaq Bank Index advanced 13.6%. The Bloomberg REIT Index jumped 6.8%. The S&P600 […]
Weekly Commentary: State-Directed Credit Splurge
Weekly Commentary: State-Directed Credit Splurge New data released Friday confirm ongoing historic Chinese Credit excess. Total Aggregate Financing increased (a ridiculous) $524 billion during August to $40.5 TN, doubling July’s growth and exceeding estimates by almost 40%. It was the strongest monthly gain since March’s record $759 billion. This pushed y-t-d (8-month) growth to $3.828 […]
Weekly Commentary: Summer of 2020
Weekly Commentary: Summer of 2020 QE fundamentally changed finance. What commenced at the Federal Reserve with a post-mortgage finance Bubble, $1 TN Treasury buying operation morphed into open-ended purchases of Treasuries, MBS, corporate bonds and even corporate ETFs holding high-yield “junk” bonds. Markets assume it’s only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve adds […]
Weekly Commentary: Moral Hazard Quagmire
Weekly Commentary: Moral Hazard Quagmire The Nasdaq100 jumped another 3.5% this week, increasing 2020 gains to 32.3%. Amazon gained 4.3% during the week, boosting y-t-d gains to 77.8% – and market capitalization to $1.626 TN. Apple surged 8.2% this week, increasing 2020 gains to 69.4%. Apple’s market capitalization ended the week at a world-beating $2.127 […]
Weekly Commentary: Precarious World
Weekly Commentary: Precarious World Another fascinating – if not comforting – week. A Friday Wall Street Journal headline: “Big Tech’s Embarrassment of Riches – Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google all show resilience during pandemic while undergoing congressional scrutiny.” Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google all reported booming earnings the day following Wednesday appearances by respective CEOs […]
Weekly Commentary: Drone Money
Weekly Commentary: Drone Money “In particular, to maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) likely will provide forward guidance about the economic conditions it would need to see before it considers raising its overnight target rate. And it likely will clarify its plans for further securities purchases (quantitative easing). […]
Weekly Commentary: Utmost Crazy
Weekly Commentary: Utmost Crazy The Shanghai Composite surged 7.3% this week, increasing y-t-d gains to 10.9%. The CSI 300 rose 7.6%, with 2020 gains of 16.0%. China’s growth-oriented ChiNext Index’s 12.8% surge boosted year-to-date gains to 54.5%. Copper jumped 7.1% this week. Aluminum rose 4.6%, Nickel 4.0%, Zinc 8.3%, Silver 4.2%, Lead 4.2%, and Palladium […]
Weekly Commentary: More W than V
Weekly Commentary: More W than V The much vaunted “V” recovery is improbable. To simplify, a somewhat “w”-looking scenario is a higher probability. After such an abrupt and extraordinary collapse in economic activity, a decent bounce was virtually assured. Millions would be returning to work after temporary shutdowns to a substantial chunk of the U.S. […]
Weekly Commentary: Update COVID-19
Weekly Commentary: Update COVID-19 Can we even attempt a reasonable discussion? Someone’s got this wrong. June 12 – Reuters (Judy Hua, Cate Cadell, Winni Zhou and Andrew Galbraith): “A Beijing district put itself on a ‘wartime’ footing and the capital banned tourism and sports events on Saturday after a cluster of novel coronavirus infections centred […]
Weekly Commentary: Extraordinary Q1 2020 Z.1 Flow of Funds
Weekly Commentary: Extraordinary Q1 2020 Z.1 Flow of Funds Financial crisis erupted in March. The Fed slashed rates at a March 3rd emergency meeting – and then began aggressively expanding its holdings/balance sheet (creating market liquidity). Even from a “flow of funds” perspective, it was one extraordinary quarter. Total Non-Financial Debt (NFD) surged a nominal […]
