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Someday They Are Going To Write Books About This!

Someday They Are Going To Write Books About This!

What is occurring today is absolutely mind-boggling. Someday they are going to write books about this! While there have been some messed up financial conundrums over the years none rival the current situation now before us. The dilemma before us is a fast-moving enigma wrapped in a gossamer cloak. Not only are the players that make up the global political-financial complex busy buying up bad debt, stocks, and bailing out those they deem too big to fail, they have destroyed the concept of real interest on loans. They have trampled all over true price discovery the basis of a free market.

The budget forecast be damned, its full speed ahead. The only justification we need is saying it will be far worse if we do nothing.The bungled response of a delusional government so obsessed with the idea that by simply passing legislation they can make things happen should not be overlooked. The Paycheck Protection Program or PPP was originally funded with $350 billion but the money was soon gone. Of the thirty million small businesses in America, only 1.7 million received money from the 2.3 trillion dollar aid package passed to help sustain America during this difficult time.

This resulted in more funding but still, the last report I saw indicated only around 13% of the, less than half the businesses that were eligible, were approved before the fund was again depleted and 60% of these had yet to receive any money.  Just as poorly handled was rapidly getting out money promised to individuals and creating a system where many people could receive more money by collecting unemployment than returning to work. The problem is that when all is said and done, large businesses with access to cheap capital will again be the winners and the big losers are the middle-class, small businesses, and social mobility.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Coronavirus: The “Rescue” Is Stealing Your Wealth

Coronavirus: The “Rescue” Is Stealing Your Wealth

The elites get richer and we lose our jobs & future prospects

As we begin to get a better handle on what happens inside the body when covid-19 infects, it’s clear that early treatment makes a big positive difference.

And we’re learning of effective measures you can take at home *before* exposure to the virus that can limit your chances of getting it. A cocktail of Vitamin C + Quercetin, Vitamin D3, zinc and melatonin is being increasingly recommended by clinicians (specific dosage available in this video).

OK..now onto the bad news. THE GREATEST WEALTH TRANSFER IN HISTORY IS BEING PERPETRATED BEFORE OUR EYES AND WE’RE JUST WATCHING IT HAPPEN!!

Oh…did I shout that? Sorry.

All that the $trillions in rescue bailouts/stimulus are doing is making the wealthy elites and the large corporations whole on their bad bets, while simultaneously making them richer by deforming stock prices even higher.

And what do the rest of us get? Lost jobs. A promise of a measly $1,200 check that few have yet to receive. Shattered prospects.

Those who have pillaged our system are filling their pockets before it collapses. Why the heck are we not fighting back at this more forcefully?

Bailouts Can’t Save This Fragile System

Bailouts Can’t Save This Fragile System

Bailouts Can’t Save This Fragile System

It’s obvious the global economy is painfully fragile. What is less obvious is the bailouts intended to “save” the fragile economy actually increase its fragility, setting up an inevitable collapse of the entire precarious system.

Systems that are highly centralized, i.e., dependent on a handful of nodes that are each points of failure — are intrinsically fragile and prone to collapse.

Put another way, systems in which all the critical nodes are tightly bound are prone to domino-like cascades of failure as any one point of failure quickly disrupts every other critical node that is bound to it.

Ours is an economy in which capital, wealth, power and control are concentrated in a few nodes of the network we call “the economy.”

A handful of corporations own the vast majority of the media; a handful of banks control most of the lending and capital; a handful of hospital chains, pharmaceutical companies and insurers control health care; and so on.

Control of digital technologies is even more concentrated, in virtual monopolies: Google for search and YouTube for video. Facebook/Instagram and Twitter for social media. Microsoft and Apple for operating systems and services.

The vast majority of participants in the economy are tightly bound to these concentrated nodes of capital and power, and these top-down, hierarchical dependencies generate fragility.

When unexpectedly severe volatility occurs, the disruption of a few nodes brings down the entire system. Thus the disruption of the subprime mortgage subsystem — a relatively small part of the total mortgage market and a tiny slice of the global financial system — nearly brought down the entire global financial system in 2008 because it is a tightly bound system of centralized concentrations of capital, power and control.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Capitalism on Life Support… Time for a Cure

Capitalism on Life Support… Time for a Cure

The Covid-19 pandemic is unleashing obscene bailouts of Western industries and companies, as well as lifelines for billionaire business magnates.

It is grotesque that millions of workers are being laid off by corporations which are in turn receiving taxpayer funds. Many of these corporations have stashed trillions of dollars away in tax havens and have contributed zero to the public treasury. Yet they are being bailed out due to shutdowns in the economy over the Covid-19 crisis.

Why aren’t the banks and corporations being forced by governments to pay for their workers on sick leave or in lockdown? It’s because the governments are bought and paid-for servants of the top one per cent. Some political leaders are the embodiment of the one per cent, like Donald Trump and senior members of the U.S. Congress.

The biggest orgy of funny money is seen in the U.S. where the Trump administration and Congress have approved the printing of trillions of dollars to prop up corporations and banks. Meanwhile crumbs are being thrown at millions of workers and their families.

In just five weeks, unemployment has hit a staggering 26.4 million people in the U.S. – and that’s the official figure. The real level is doubtless much higher. It is reported that the job losses have wiped out all the employment gains made over the past decade since the last financial crisis in 2008. As with the present crisis, the U.S. government arranged trillion-dollar bailouts for banks and industries back in 2008-2009. It didn’t last long until the next binge.

In truth is this is a familiar pattern over the past century where the economy is continually salvaged from ruin by the government at the expense of ordinary workers, small businesses and taxpayers. The recurring rescue is proof that the system of private capital and supposed free markets is a myth.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

As The US Rig Count Collapses Most Since 2014, Will The Fed Bail Out Oil Companies?

As The US Rig Count Collapses Most Since 2014, Will The Fed Bail Out Oil Companies?

After a chaotic week in the energy complex, today’s data from Baker Hughes suggests American oil companies are finally starting to draw the line as rig counts collapse to their lowest since July 2016, having collapsed at the fastest rate since 2014’s crash…

The lagged response on production may be imminent…

And pressure is building on the Trump administration to “do something” – even if doing something is the worst thing for a market that needs the pressure of low prices to force restructurings. As Bloomberg reports, a plan being weighed by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to steer financial aid to beleaguered oil drillers could set up a clash with Democrats who have warned against any bailout for the industry.

As OilPrice.com’s Irina Slav notes, the Department of Treasury may set up a lending fund for oil companies, Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Bloomberg this week, adding that there was nothing final yet.

“One of the components we’re looking at is providing a lending facility for the industry,” Mnuchin said.

“We’re looking at a lot of different options, and we have not made any conclusions.”

Besides direct loans – which the Federal Reserve would implement – the federal government may also buy stakes in some oil companies in addition to providing loans. It could also ask these companies to reduce production.

The larger oil companies that hold an investment-grade rating would either have to fend for themselves on the debt market or take advantage of the loan program that the Fed has set up for small businesses, even if they are not exactly small businesses. The actual small businesses, in the meantime, are asking the Fed to adjust the rules of the loan program to allow them to use the funds to pay off existing debt.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Blain’s Morning Porridge – April 23 2002 – Avoiding Pension Crash

Blain’s Morning Porridge – April 23 2002 – Avoiding Pension Crash

“In a time of universal deceit – telling the truth is a revolutionary act”

Trump is not a complete fool. He knows enough to move oil prices up. Threaten to start a war in the Middle East. Works every time..! Sure enough stocks followed higher.

But, even St George would struggle to slay the microscopic dragon at the core of this unfolding crisis. Just a few months ago none of us foresaw just how deep the downturn the COVID virus triggered could possibly go. In early Feb I suggested we faced an economic hit similar to the SARs epidemic – a $40 bln hit to the global economy, and a 16% slide in markets. I massively underestimated.

There are a number of brutal realities:

1) We still don’t know how much deeper the Virus will dig. The news is very mixed – the first wave is apparently passing in Europe and US, but there are still doubts on subsequent waves, and uncertainty about renewed infections around the globe. Lockdowns are being extended. The social distancing and lockdowns that have trounced the global economy in the short-term aren’t going to end overnight. They are set to continue with only limited easing – for months, maybe through the year. We just don’t know – which means the real economic damage continues to escalate.  

2) Don’t look to Global Markets for guidance – they are detached from the economic reality because of renewed financial distortions from QEI (QE Infinity) govt supports and bailouts. There is still an element of denial in markets – but sentiment is beginning to shift as the evidence mounts. A host of indicators such as the rate of downgrades to upgrades being nearly 10/1, central banks buying Fallen Angel junk, and mandatory dividend cuts – all point to rising crisis. (There are still sound investment opportunities out there – but prices are seriously distorted.) The number of recommendations to buy gold is soaring – a sure sign of trouble. 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Banks Will Not Bail Out The Economy

Banks Will Not Bail Out The Economy

These days, we hear a lot that banks were the problem in the 2008 crisis and now they are the part of the solution. 

Banking was not the main problem of the 2008 crisis, but one of the symptoms that indicated a more serious disease, the excess risk taken by public and private economic agents after massive interest rate cuts and direct incentives to take more debt coming from legislation as well as local and supranational regulation. Lehman Brothers was not a cause, it was a consequence of years of legislation and monetary policies that encouraged risk-taking.

The second part of the sentence, “now banks are the solution,” is dangerous. It starts from a wrong premise, that banks are stronger than ever and can bail out the global economy. Banking may be part of the solution, but we cannot place, as the eurozone is doing, the entire burden of the crisis on the banks’ balance sheet. I will explain why.

When economists in Europe talk endlessly about the differences in growth and success of monetary and fiscal policy between the United States and Europe, many ignore two key factors. In the United States, according to the St Louis Federal Reserve, less than 15% of the real economy is financed through the banking channel, in the European Union, it is almost 80%. In addition, in the United States, there is an open, diversified, more efficient and faster mechanism to clean non-performing loans and recapitalize the economy that adds to its high diversification in private non-bank financing channels. 

It is, therefore, essential that in periods of crisis countries, particularly in Europe, do not relax risk analysis mechanisms, because the economic recovery may be slowed down by ongoing problems in the financial sector and even lead to a banking crisis in the midterm. The worst measure that countries can take in a crisis is to force incentives to take a disproportionate risk.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Let the Institutional Innovation Begin! (Part I)

Let the Institutional Innovation Begin! (Part I)

In corvid-19, neoliberal capitalism has met a formidable foe. The pandemic has shown just how fragile and dysfunctional the market/state order — as a production apparatus, ideology, and culture — truly is. Countless market sectors are now more or less collapsing with a highly uncertain future ahead. With a few notable exceptions, government responses to the virus range from ineffectual to self-serving to clownish.

While politicians clearly hope that massive government bailouts will restore the economy, it’s important to recognize that this is not just a financial crisis; it’s a social and political crisis as well. Many legacy market systems – generously subsidized and propped up by state power – are not really trusted or loved by people. Do Americans really want to give $17 billion to scandal-ridden Boeing while letting the post office go bankrupt? It is too early to declare that the old forms will never return, and we do need to remember that the authoritarian option is dangerously close. But it is clear that the future will have a very different pattern. 

To me, one thing is obvious: searching for the rudiments of a New Order should be our top priority once emergency needs are taken care of. We need to identify and cultivate new patterns of peer provisioning and place-based governance, especially at the local and regional levels. We need new types of infrastructures and new narratives that understand the practical need for open-source civic and economic engagement.

This is not only necessary to help us deal with climate change and inequality; it is a preemptive necessity for fortifying democracy itself. Reactionary forces are already poised to try to restore a pre-pandemic “normal.” “Prepare for the Ultimate Gaslighting,” writes filmmaker Julio Vincent Gambuto in a wonderful essay on Medium

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Trickle-Up Bailout

The Trickle-Up Bailout

It’s early days, but the Federal Reserve “bazooka” has mostly impacted the 1%

Take a look at some contrasting sets of headlines. First, from planet earth:

Weekly Jobless Claims Hit 5.425 Million, Raising Monthly Loss To 22 Million Due To Coronavirus (CNBC)

Worst Case Fears Of 20%-Plus U.S. Jobless Rate Are Now Realistic (Bloomberg)

Then from Wall Street:

Private Equity-Owned Companies Sell New Bonds in Credit Rally (Bloomberg Law)

Fed’s Historic Move Spurs Rally in Junk Bonds: 6 ETF Picks (Nasdaq.com)

As we head into the second month of pandemic lockdown, two parallel narratives are developing about the financial rescue. 

In one, ordinary people receive aid through programs that are piecemeal, complex, and riddled with conditions. 

A law freezing evictions applies to holders of government-backed mortgages only. “Disaster grants” are coming more slowly and in smaller amounts than expected; small businesses were disappointed to learn from the SBA early last week that aid would be limited to $1000 per employee

A one-time “economic impact payment,” reportedly delayed so recipients could experience the thrilling visual of Donald Trump’s name on the check, might help make half a rent payment. Unemployment insurance amounts have been raised, so tip and gig workers can now be ineligible for $600 a week more than before! The cost of a coronavirus test might be free, but you test positive, you could up paying $50,000 or more in hospital costs even with insurance. And so on. 

Meanwhile, “relief” programs aimed at the top income levels were immediate, staggering in size and scope, and often appeared as grants rather than loans. One of the biggest layouts of the Covid-19 rescue was a political carrying charge that members of congress extracted just to get the larger bailout out the door – a pre-bailout bailout, if you will.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil, Gas, Petrochemical Financial Woes Predate Pandemic — And Will Continue After, Despite Bailouts, Report Finds

Oil, Gas, Petrochemical Financial Woes Predate Pandemic — And Will Continue After, Despite Bailouts, Report Finds

empty streets

The oil, gas, and petrochemical industries have taken a massive financial blow from the COVID-19 pandemic, a new report from the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL) concludes, but its financial troubles preexisted the emergence of the novel coronavirus and are likely to extend far into the future, past the end to measures aimed at curbing the spread of the disease.

“Oil and gas are among the industries hardest hit by the current economic crisis, with leading companies losing an average of 45 percent of their value since the start of 2020,” the report finds. “These declines touch on nearly every facet of the oil and gas sector’s business, including the petrochemical sector that has been touted in recent years as the primary driver of the industry’s future growth.”

That’s to some degree because of the abrupt plunge in demand for oil resulting from shelter-in-place and quarantine measures that, as of early April, applied to over 3 billion of the world’s 7.8 billion people — including 90 percent of the United States. And the United States uses an outsize amount of gasoline — in 2017, the U.S. consumed one fifth of the gasoline used globally, the report notes. Nearly 70 percent of petroleum products are consumed for transportation, the report adds — meaning that the impact on demand resulting from quarantines is enormous.

But, before the pandemic, oil, gas, and petrochemical firms “showed clear signs of systemic weakness,” CIEL’s report says, listing factors like the industries’ poor stock market performance, high levels of debt, competition from cheaper renewable energy, slowing growth in demand for plastics, and growing awareness among investors of the impacts that action to slow climate change will have on the sector.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What Are You Gonna Do About It?

What Are You Gonna Do About It?

Tucked into the recent recovery bill was a provision granting the Federal Reserve the right to set up a $450 billion bailout plan without following key provisions of the federal open meetings law, including announcing its meetings or keeping most records about them, according to a POLITICO review of the legislation.

The provision further calls into question the transparency and oversight for the biggest bailout law ever passed by Congress. President Donald Trump has indicated he does not plan to comply with another part of the new law intended to boost Congress’ oversight powers of the bailout funds. And earlier this week, Trump dismissed the government official chosen as the chief watchdog for the stimulus package.

The changes at the central bank – which appear to have been inserted into the 880-page bill by sympathetic senators during the scramble to get it approved — would address a complaint that the Fed faced during the 2008 financial crisis, when board members couldn’t easily hold group conversations to address the fast-moving economic turmoil.

The provision dispenses with a longstanding accountability rule that the board has to give at least one day’s notice before holding a meeting. Experts say the change could lead to key information about the $450 billion bailout fund, such as which firms might benefit from the program, remaining inaccessible long after the bailout is over.

The new law would absolve the board of the requirement to keep minutes to closed-door meetings as it deliberates on how to set up the $450 billion loan program. That would severely limit the amount of information potentially available to the public on what influenced the board’s decision-making. The board would only have to keep a record of its votes, though they wouldn’t have to be made public during the coronavirus crisis.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Houston: The Banks Have A Huge Problem

Houston: The Banks Have A Huge Problem

For many years after the financial crisis, US commercial banks were mocked when instead of generating earnings the old-fashioned way, by collecting the interest arb on loans they had made, or even by frontrunning the Fed with their prop (and flow) trading desks, they would “earn” their way to just above consensus estimates by releasing some of their accumulated loan loss reserves, which thanks to creative accounting, would end up boosting the bottom line. The thinking here went that having suffered massive losses during the financial crisis “kitchen sink” when all banks suffered crushing losses to they would get bailed out, banks would then “recoup” billions in losses over time that would be run through the income statement as a reversal of accrued loss provisions.

Well, after the longest expansion in history, it’s time for this process to go into reverse, and instead of releasing loan loss reserves the banks are now starting to build them up again in preparation for a wave of consumer defaults due to the US economic shutdown.

As we reported earlier, this big story from earnings season so far – now that all major US money center banks have reported earnings – has been how much in loan loss provisions and reserves have the big US banks taken as precaution for the economic upheaval due to the coronacrisis. As shown below, on average most banks – this time including the hedge fund known as Goldman Sachs which has since pivoted to becoming a subprime lender to the masses with “Marcus” – saw their loan loss provisions surge by roughly 4x from year ago levels, with JPMorgan’s jumping the most, or just over 5x, hinting the other banks are likely undercapitalized for the storm that is coming.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The UNFAIRNESS Economy

The UNFAIRNESS Economy

Bailouts for the rich. Barely anything for you.

Award-winning investigative journalist Matt Taibbi penned perhaps the most iconic condemnation of the bankers who created (and subsequently got bailed out during) the Great Financial Crisis:

The first thing you need to know about Goldman Sachs is that it’s everywhere. The world’s most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.

Tens years later, we find ourselves facing another crisis which, while triggered by the coronavirus instead of housing loans, has similar roots in a financial system made vulnerable by the unfair plunder of big banks and hedge funds — who are now being bailed out at vastly higher expense than in 2008.

Sadly, it seems we’ve learned very little over the past decade.

And as $trillions and $trillions in “rescue” stimulus are starting to be deployed by Congress and the Federal Reserve, it’s once again the financial power elite and corporate boardroom bigwigs who are receiving immediate and complete relief from the consequences of their actions.

But what will regular folks like you and me get? Crumbs, if anything.

And as taxpayers, we’re ultimately footing the bill (once again).

Given his intensive knowledge of the inner workings of Wall Street and its entanglement with the DC political machine, Taibbi explains how the inequity, abuse and fraud in today’s “Unfairness Economy” has become standard operating procedure — and will remain so until a serious enough social uprising takes place.

First, watch this 2-minute trailer:

And then click here to enjoy Peak Prosperity’s full interview with Matt Taibbi:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Coffee Sellers Are Not Fundamentally Different From Banks

With the 2007-8 financial crisis came a splendid alphabetical soup of central bank interventions to stimulate financial markets, lower interest rates, provide astonishing amounts of liquidity to banks and, allegedly, prevent another Great Depression. Likening the failure of big banks to falling elephants crushing even the smallest grass, former Fed Chairman Bernanke argued that consequences from bank failures would have caused much more havoc to the economy than the liquidity provision and bailouts his Fed oversaw.

Now, do banks really deserve special consideration in this sense? Let me illustrate by comparing the fates of two imaginary entrepreneurs:

Our first entrepreneur — let’s call him John — sees an opportunity in the beverage business. Specifically, he’s convinced that he can source high-quality Brazilian coffee beans, roast and serve impeccably aromatic coffee in downtown Manhattan. He draws up the business plan, estimates what he believes coffee-craving New Yorkers would be willing to pay for his coffee and assesses how many customers he could reasonably serve per day.

Setting his plan in action, he borrows some money from friends and family, rents an appropriate space, hires a construction team and interior designers to create the coffee-scented heaven he imagines, finds some competent baristas to staff it and finally opens his doors to hesitantly curious customers. From here, as in all entrepreneurial ventures, there are two paths John’s business may take:

  1. If customers love his coffee and willingly part with their dollars , enough so that John can cover costs as well as offer some return to his shareholders/creditors, we consider John’s venture successful. The profits describe the added value for consumers, regardless of whether you see John as a Misesian uncertainty-carrying and future-appreciating speculator or a Kirznerian arbitrageur, alert to discrepancies between prices of higher and lower-order goods.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Fed’s In A Box And People Are Starting To Notice

The Fed’s In A Box And People Are Starting To Notice

It’s long been an article of faith in the sound money community that the Fed, by bailing out every dysfunctional financial entity in sight, would eventually be forced to choose between the deflationary collapse of a mountain of bad debt and the inflationary chaos of a plunging currency.

That generation-defining crossroad is finally in sight.

On one hand, a tight labor market is pushing inflation to levels that normally call for higher interest rates:


source: tradingeconomics.com


source: tradingeconomics.com

Today’s Fed-heads are old enough to remember the 1970s, when failure to get inflation under control produced a decade-long monetary crisis that was only resolved with (not exaggerating here) interest rates approaching 20%.

On the other hand, the yield curve – the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates – is trending towards zero and will, if it keeps falling, invert, meaning that short rates will exceed long. When this has happened in the past a recession has ensued.

yield curve Fed's in a box

With a system this highly leveraged it’s completely possible that the next recession will threaten the whole fiat currency/globalization/fractional reserve banking world. No one at the Fed wants to preside over that, leading some to view rising inflation as the lesser of two evils. See Atlanta Fed Chief Pledges to Oppose Hike Inverting Yield Curve.

A lot of people seem to be aware of the Fed’s dilemma. Here’s an excerpt from a recent Reuters article on the subject:

Fed’s Powell between a rock and hard place: Ignore the yield curve or tight job market?

Unemployment near a 20-year low screams at the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates or risk a too-hot economy. The bond market, not far from a state that typically precedes a recession, says not so fast.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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