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Why the Fed Will Never Succeed

December 24, 2015

Why the Fed Will Never Succeed The Fed will never succeed in its attempt to manage inflation and unemployment by varying interest rates. This is because it and its economists do not accept the relationship between, on one side, the money it creates and the bank credit its commercial banks issue out of thin air, […]

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China and the dollar

October 11, 2015

China and the dollar  With the benefit of hindsight, the two-day devaluation of the yuan in mid-August might have been a masterstroke of strategy. China executed a financial move that appeared to undermine its own position but instead created trouble for the US; how much is still to be played out. So was the devaluation […]

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From ZIRP to NIRP

October 1, 2015

From ZIRP to NIRP The sudden end of the Fed’s ambition to raise interest rates above the zero bound, coupled with the FOMC’s minutes, which expressed concerns about emerging market economies, has got financial scribblers writing about negative interest rate policies (NIRP). Coincidentally, Andrew Haldane, the chief economist at the Bank of England, published a […]

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From ZIRP to NIRP

September 26, 2015

From ZIRP to NIRP The sudden end of the Fed’s ambition to raise interest rates above the zero bound, coupled with the FOMC’s minutes, which expressed concerns about emerging market economies, has got financial scribblers writing about negative interest rate policies (NIRP). Coincidentally, Andrew Haldane, the chief economist at the Bank of England, published a […]

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Equity markets and credit contraction

September 13, 2015

Equity markets and credit contraction There is one class of money that is constantly being created and destroyed, and that is bank credit. Bank credit is created when a bank lends money to a customer; it becomes money because the customer draws down this credit to deposit in other bank accounts and to pay creditors. […]

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China chooses her weapons

August 23, 2015

China chooses her weapons China’s recent mini-devaluations had less to do with her mounting economic challenges, and more to do with a statement from the IMF on 4 August, that it was proposing to defer the decision to include the yuan in the SDR until next October. The IMF’s excuse was to avoid changes at […]

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Welcome to the world of ZIRP zombies

August 15, 2015

Welcome to the world of ZIRP zombies Interest rates in the US, Europe and the UK were reduced to close to zero in the wake of the Lehman crisis nearly seven years ago. Initially zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) was a temporary measure to counter the price deflation that immediately followed the crisis, but since […]

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Euro-sclerosis

May 30, 2015

Euro-sclerosis There appears to be little or nothing in the monetarists’ handbook to enable them to assess the risk of a loss of confidence in the purchasing power of a paper currency. Furthermore, since today’s macroeconomists have chosen to deny Say’s Law1, otherwise known as the laws of the markets, they have little hope of […]

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Inaccurate statistics and the threat to bonds

May 29, 2015

Inaccurate statistics and the threat to bonds Statistics have become very misleading: in particular we are being badly misled into believing that the US is teetering on the edge of price deflation, because the US official rate of inflation is barely positive, a level that US bonds and therefore all other financial markets have priced […]

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