“Perfect Storm” – Global Energy Crisis Spreads To Brazil And India
The global energy crisis plagues Europe and China and risks spreading to emerging market economies.
According to Bloomberg, severe droughts in Brazil have led to a collapse in hydroelectric generation and could force the South American country to ration power if power imports from Uruguay and Argentina aren’t increased.
Brazil is South America’s largest economy. It derives 60% of its power from hydroelectric sources, but La Nina has produced drought this year and dwindled water levels at reservoirs, making hydro less dependable.
Brazil, in many ways, has been ahead of the decarbonization of its power grid. When it comes to the energy transition, countries worldwide begin to embark on but discover that renewable power is not sustainable. Bear Traps Report’s Larry McDonald recently opinioned in his note to clients that the ESG push for power grids is contributing to the global energy crisis.
To mitigate a power grid collapse, the South American country is in the process of firing up natural gas generators to compensate for the loss of hydroelectric power. This would force the government to compete in a tight global natgas market that could raise prices higher.
“Brazil’s hydroelectric reservoirs in the southeast and central west, which represent almost three-fourths of the country’s installed capacity, have fallen to 17% amid the worst drought in 91 years,” Bloomberg said.
Earlier this year, the La Nina weather pattern brought drought to Brazil but plenty of water to north-eastern South America that filled up dams in Colombia to historically high levels. Another round of La Nina, which the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said has a 70% chance of forming this fall/winter, could delay the rainy season in Brazil and trigger power disruptions that would have drastic economic impacts.
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