We still see that this cycle into 2024 will be one of inflationary. Our computer has projected that this cycle would be one based on shortages. True, that that $1.9 trillion bill is just a Democrat’s wish-list. The $1,400 checks are for about 100 million. The fact that 70% of Americans approve of this and assume they are getting $1,400 checks, that is only 0.013571429% of the total bill. The fact that they would not even make it $2,000 shows that this is all about just their wish list for things that have nothing to do with COVID.
Many governments have been engaging in Quantitative Easing since 2014 with negative rates in Europe, but people have been hoarding cash rather than spending it. Worse still, they have been increasing tax enforcement and shutting down tax-havens and this has led to the deflationary wave which our model shows bottomed in January 2020. Yes, they increased the money supply, but they also reduced disposable income. Those conflicting trends caused one component behind the failure to stimulate the economy. People will NOT borrow unless they see the potential to make a profit. Without CONFIDENCE in the future, then hoard their cash.
As we have been investigating this entire COVID Crash, it comes up clearly that this was a failed manipulation for it was also the shortest-lived crash. Our Energy Model shows a distinctly different pattern when we compare 1987 to 2020. Note how the Energy came back rapidly from the 2020 COVID Crash whereas it took 78 weeks to elect a Weekly buy signal compared to 19 weeks from the 2020 low. This all points to a rally on a different type of economic recovery based upon inflationary shortages and our target of 40,000 we warned about several years ago no longer sounds so crazy.
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