“It’s Different This Time?” What Happened To US Oil Drillers During The Last Price War | Zero Hedge.
History may not repeat but it rhymes so loud sometimes that Einstein would be rolling in his repetitively insane grave. As Bloomberg notes, the last time that U.S. oil drillers got caught up in a price war orchestrated by Saudi Arabia, it ended badly for the Americans. “1986 was the big price collapse and the industry did not see it coming,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research who has covered the oil sector for 37 years, “it put a lot of them out of business. You just don’t forget it. It’s part of the cultural memory.” Think it can’t happen again? Think again… consider how levered US Shale drillers are and just what Saudi has to gain from keeping their foot on the US neck… In 1986, the U.S. industry collapsed, triggering almost a quarter-century of production declines, and the Saudis regained their leading role in the world’s oil market.
In 1986, the Saudis opened the spigot and sparked a four-month, 67 percent plunge that left oil just above $10 a barrel. The U.S. industry collapsed, triggering almost a quarter-century of production declines, and the Saudis regained their leading role in the world’s oil market.
So while no one expects the Saudis to ramp up output now like they did then and U.S. shale oil companies are pledging to keep drilling regardless, the memory of that bust looms large for American industry executives on the eve of OPEC’s meeting tomorrow. As the Saudis gather with officials from the 11 other OPEC nations in Vienna, analysts are split on whether the group will cut output to lift prices or leave production unchanged to fight for market share with shale drillers.
“1986 was the big price collapse and the industry did not see it coming,”said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research in Wakefield, Massachusetts, who has covered the oil sector for 37 years. “It put a lot of them out of business. You just don’t forget it. It’s part of the cultural memory.”
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“Someone has to blink,” said Sarah Emerson, managing principal of ESAI Energy Inc., a consulting company in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “OPEC is saying ‘Does it really have to be us?’”
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