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Here’s Why Modern Unbacked Money Derives Value from Gold

Here Is Why Modern Unbacked Money Derives Value from Gold

Photo by Giorgio Trovato

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: The value behind money, why gold’s price has grudgingly responded to recent market turmoil and what higher energy prices mean for gold and silver.

Money has value, but not because the government says so

In an analysis on Eurasia Review, Frank Shostak goes in-depth in an attempt to answer the question: why does money have value? Opposing the views that the value of money is there because of government reassurances or social conventions, Shostak instead takes a look at history in order to avoid circular pitfalls.

Doing so tells us that money is a byproduct of a bid for convenience, a result of people wanting greater prosperity and better market exchange. In their quest to obtain both, they would put every commodity through a form of trial, and the one that ended up being the most commonly and widely accepted became money.

We now know that that commodity is gold. Even silver or bronze coins served primarily as a form of IOU for gold, although this IOU was far more grounded and sensible than any fiat today. Shostak likewise asserts that central banks were established to prevent market manipulation and monopolization by private banks, which wouldn’t hesitate to print out more gold IOUs than they could cover. (As we’ve seen all too often.)

Yet now, long after these early makings of modern finance, we find that little has changed. Private banks are making monopolies all the same, and despite a gold standard being nowhere in sight, much of their profits come from trading gold IOUs that can’t and won’t be covered by physical gold. That is why the Basel agreement was passed, and why most agree it will only be partially implemented so as to not collapse the global economy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

WE HAVEN’T SEEN ANYTHING YET: The Coming Tiny Silver Market Explosion

WE HAVEN’T SEEN ANYTHING YET: The Coming Tiny Silver Market Explosion

Even though the silver price has surged over the past two months, we haven’t seen anything yet.  Step aside, Tesla.  Watch what happens when investors begin to understand the true meaning of “STORE OF VALUE.”  I can assure you; Tesla is not a store of value but rather a perfect example of the 2000 TECH-BUBBLE 2.0.

Unfortunately, the glitz, glamor, and allure of Technology will only last as long as the world is capable of supplying lots of cheap and available oil.  Technology doesn’t really solve problems; it just consumes one hell of a lot more energy with the illusion of a FIX.  Tesla isn’t solving our problem with fossil fuel addiction.  Without the burning of one hell of a lot of oil, natural gas, and coal, Elon Musk wouldn’t be able to roll just one of his Model 3 Electric vehicles off the assembly line.  This is the BAD JOKE that most “Renewable Energy Aficionados” would like you to ignore.

Again, let me clarify the term “Renewable Energy.”  The only thing renewable about Solar & Wind Power is that the sun will continue to shine, and the wind will continue to blow.  Thus, they are renewable and free.  However, the highly sophisticated Technology that produces wind and solar power units is NOT RENEWABLE.  We can prove this by the thousands of tons (soon to be hundred thousand tons) of wind blade waste that will be disposed of in landfills across the world.

If someone can honestly say that the dumping of thousands of tons of wind blade waste is renewable, then maybe I don’t understand what the term “Renewable” really means. 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

TOTAL MARKET INSANITY: Toyota vs. Tesla

TOTAL MARKET INSANITY: Toyota vs. Tesla

The present market insanity reminds me of the similar mentality of Americans right before the 1929 stock market crash and the pre-1999 Tech Bubble.  However, the big difference today is that technology has destroyed the ability of investors to understand the meaning of VALUE.  The notion that technology makes the world better fails the test of time, especially when you read Joesph Tainter’s book, THE COLLAPSE OF COMPLEX SOCIETIES.

The new generation of millennials and even the baby-boomers have fallen HOOK, LINE, and SINKER for the glamour and glitter of technology.  So, if we ask most Americans about our future energy predicament, their knee-jerk reply is that “Technology will solve all of our problems.”  This is quite hilarious when, in fact, complex, sophisticated technology is a massive ENERGY BLACK HOLE.  The more technology we throw at a problem, the more energy is consumed.  

Thus, this brings me to my comparison of Toyota Motors vs. Tesla Inc.   Toyota was the largest auto manufacturer in the world in 2018 but was overtaken by Volkswagon last year.  Toyota didn’t produce any electric cars in 2019 but plans on rolling out ten new EV models in 2020.  However, if we compare the market fundamentals for Toyota and Tesla, investors have gone completely insane.

Currently, Tesla’s market cap is worth $259 billion compared to $206 billion for Toyota.  Why did investors push Tesla’s stock up to $1,400 a share ($259 billion market cap) when its total revenues in 2019 were only a little more than Toyota’s net income profits?  As you can see, Toyota posted $19 billion in net income profits on total revenues of $278 billion compared to Tesla’s $862 million net income loss on $24.3 billion in revenues.

Again, a perfect example of the investor mindset today.  Profits don’t matter, just technology, regardless if it continues to lose money.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Money’s Not Worth Anything Anymore” – Ex-Credit Suisse CEO Blasts “Crazy” Negative Rates

“Money’s Not Worth Anything Anymore” – Ex-Credit Suisse CEO Blasts “Crazy” Negative Rates

Oswald Gruebel, who served as Credit Suisse CEO from 2004 to 2007 and as UBS Group AG’s top executive from 2009 to 2011, has slammed ECB policy in an interview with Swiss newspaper NZZ am Sonntag.

“Negative interest rates are crazy. That means money is not worth anything anymore,” Gruebel exclaimed.

“As long as we have negative interest rates, the financial industry will continue to shrink.”

Who can blame him – judging by the all-time low in European inflation expectations, ECB policy has been an utter failure…

Source: Bloomberg

Gruebel is not alone. As European bank bosses cast their eyes at their share prices, they are fighting back, some have said – biting the hand that feeds, in their attack on ECB policies, warning of severe consequences to asset prices and the broader economy.

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg reports, The ECB’s imposition of negative interest rates have created an “absurd situation” in which banks don’t want to hold deposits, rages UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti, arguing that this policy is hurting social systems and savings rates.

Additionally, Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing warned that more monetary easing by the ECB, as widely expected next week, will have “grave side effects” for a region that has already lived with negative interest rates for half a decade.

“In the long run, negative rates ruin the financial system,” Sewing said at the event, organized by the Handelsblatt newspaper.

Another cut “may make refinancing cheaper for states, but has grave side effects.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

2019: Zombie Markets Before The Fall

Francis Tattegrain La ramasseuse d’épaves (The Beachcomber) 1880

I haven’t really written about finance since April of this year, and given recent fluctuations in what people persist in calling the markets, maybe it’s time. Then again, nothing has changed since that article in April entitled This Is Not A Market. I was right then, and I still am.

[..] markets need price discovery as much as price discovery needs markets. They are two sides of the same coin. Markets are the mechanism that makes price discovery possible, and vice versa. Functioning markets, that is. Given the interdependence between the two, we must conclude that when there is no price discovery, there are no functioning markets. And a market that doesn’t function is not a market at all.

[..] we must wonder why everyone in the financial world, and the media, is still talking about ‘the markets’ (stocks, bonds et al) as if they still existed. Is it because they think there still is price discovery? Or do they think that even without price discovery, you can still have functioning markets? Or is their idea that a market is still a market even if it doesn’t function?

But perhaps that is confusing, and confusion in and of itself doesn’t lead to better understanding. So maybe I should call what there is out there today ‘zombie markets’. It doesn’t really make much difference. What murdered functioning markets is intervention by central banks, in alleged attempts to save those same markets. Cue your favorite horror movie.

Now Jerome Powell and the Fed he inherited are apparently trying to undo the misery Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen before him wrought upon the economic system, and people, cue Trump, get into fights about that one. All the while still handing the Fed, the ECB, the BoJ, much more power than they should ever have been granted.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“But, it’s not backed by anything?”

“But, it’s not backed by anything?”

One of the most common arguments against Bitcoin is that it is not backed by anything. That it’s price is just speculation. But what does it mean for an asset or a currency to be backed by something in the first place? To find this out, we first need to defy what it means for something to have value. After all, if something is to be backed by something else, that something else better be something of value. Like gold. Why does gold have value? Is it valuable because you can make jewelry out of it or is jewelry made out of it because it’s valuable? You can’t eat it and it’s not very good for any other basic human need. So what makes it valuable?

A fundamental thing that people miss when thinking about value is that value is always subjective. Not a single thing is of the same value to one person as it is to another whether the price is the same or not. A price means one thing to a wealthy person and another to a poor person since the amount of time and effort they have to sacrifice in order to acquire that thing. Things like debt and compound interest also play a huge role here. In addition to this, the value of something priced in any fiat currency changes over time since the value of the currency is constantly being diluted through inflation. The value of something boils down to two distinct variables, supply and demand. Supply is alwaysobjective to the buyer and demand is always subjective. This is also true for the medium of exchange or type of money that is being used to carry out the transaction. Money is simply the language we use to express how we subjectively value things to each other.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

James Madison’s Essay on Money

The following is by James Madison, the primary author of the US Constitution and fourth president.

For those who wish to get a further view on this, here is a paper from the Cleveland Fed on Madison’s essay: https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/publications/discontinued-publications/economic-review/1998-economic-review/er-1998q1-james-madisons-monetary-economics.aspx

Money

Observations written posterior to the circular Address of Congress in Sept. 1779, and prior to their Act of March, 1780.

It has been taken for an axiom in all our reasonings on the subject of finance, that supposing the quantity and demand of things vendible in a country to remain the same, their price will vary according to the variation in the quantity of the circulating medium; in other words, that the value of money will be regulated by its quantity. I shall submit to the judgment of the public some considerations which determine mine to reject the proposition as founded in error. Should they be deemed not absolutely conclusive, they seem at least to shew that it is liable to too many exceptions and restrictions to be taken for granted as a fundamental truth.

If the circulating medium be of universal value as specie, a local increase or decrease of its quantity, will not, whilst a communication subsists with other countries, produce a correspondent rise or fall in its value. The reason is obvious. When a redundancy of universal money prevails in any one country, the holders of it know their interest too well to waste it in extravagant prices, when it would be worth so much more to them elsewhere. When a deficiency happens, those who hold commodities, rather than part with them at an undervalue in one country, would carry them to another. The variation of prices in these cases, cannot therefore exceed the expence and insurance of transportation.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Does Subjective Valuation Mean Arbitrary Valuation?

Why do individuals pay much higher prices for some goods versus other goods? The common reply to this is the law of supply and demand.

However, what is behind this law? To provide an answer to this question economists refer to the law of diminishing marginal utility.

Mainstream economics explains the law of diminishing marginal utility in terms of the satisfaction that one derives from consuming a particular good.

For instance, an individual may derive vast satisfaction from consuming one cone of ice cream.

However, the satisfaction he will derive from consuming a second cone might also be big but not as big as the satisfaction derived from the first cone.

The satisfaction from the consumption of a third cone is likely to diminish further, and so on.[1]

From this, mainstream economics concludes that the more of any good we consume in a given period, the less satisfaction, or utility, we derive out of each additional, or marginal, unit.

It is also established that because the marginal utility of a good declines as we consume more and more of it, the price that we are willing to pay per unit of the good also declines.

Utility in this way of thinking is presented as a certain quantity that increases at a diminishing rate as one consumes more of a particular good. Utility is regarded as a feeling of satisfaction or enjoyment derived from buying or using goods and services.

According to the mainstream way of thinking, an individual’s utility scale is wired in his head. This scale determines for the individual whether he will purchase a particular good. The valuation scale is given and there is no explanation on how it was established.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What Happens When Your Money Is Worthless? Living with a Devalued Currency

What Happens When Your Money Is Worthless? Living with a Devalued Currency

This is one of the most important and valued articles to help you prepare. I think it could be useful, based on our experience with the economic collapse and its effects on the currency. Let me tell you what life is really like when your country has a devalued currency that is nearly worthless.

How do you buy things with devalued currency?

These last few days I was asked by a fellow prepper overseas how our internal trading, with such a devalued currency, was going on. He asked if we used silver coins and bartering. I answered him that we use mostly US dollars and Euros for large transactions like vehicles, land, and housing, as far as I know. But the reason people are mostly selling is that they are desperate to get out of the country, and the wealth they have accumulated in previous years vanishes, with the bad deals they seem forced to accept.

On the other hand, for day-to-day payments, bolivars are still used, but the prices go up (always UP by the way) depending on the black market dollar price. This is, though, a perfect evidence that this black market dollar is controlled by the government: look at the evolution price, and you will find it stable just before any important election, political campaigns and such.

This is no surprise, those who benefit the most from this black market are those “companies” that aligned with the dollar river…and nowadays that stream is getting dry.

Bad news for oil industry workers

I received very bad news for those still working in the oil industry. So you can understand what is in store for the employees, I have to explain some background first.

As part of our monthly payment, we received a savings incentive: the company retained the 12.5% of our salary in their accounts until the end of the month, and provided another 12.5% (it sounds like a lot but it is not). So, by the end of the month, we had in the corporative account an additional 25%.

This was one of the main benefits for the oil state workers, and that helped to deal with the high performance demanded by the industry. This money, during better times, was kept there until the end of the year, for a new car, or starting a side business,  some fancy vacations, and stuff. However I never used it for traveling overseas, but invested in land, some prepping gear and equipment, assisting my parents and my wife’s family, and short family trips from time to time to the beach, or my folks’ place and such.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bubble-nomics

Bubble-nomics

Question: What is a bubble?
Answer: A bubble is trade in an asset at a price range that strongly exceeds the asset’s intrinsic value.  Or it could also be described as a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future.

Question: How do you know when you are in a bubble?
Answer: Gauge asset prices against a standard, foundational premise to determine if the price appreciation is warranted.

Lucky for us, the Federal Reserve provides exactly what is needed to show how unjustifiable current prices are against households disposable income.  The chart below is all US household’s net worth (current value of all real estate, stocks, bonds, etc.) as a percentage of their disposable personal income (disposable income is what they have left to spend or save after paying their taxes).  To round out the picture, I’ve added in the net growth in full time workers during each period, dramatically decelerating.

Since 1970, every time asset values have risen above 520% of households disposable income (the dashed line in the chart) then the US has been in a bubble and a subsequent crash has followed.  This has simply meant asset values growing much faster than households income or households capability to sustain those price increases.  The depth of each crash has been relative to the overshoot of asset values on the upside.

Why???

I hear much discussion that the millennials are the largest age group in US history and are expected to drive growth in demand.  However, most people fail to understand what this truly means.  The millennials are just marginally larger than the boomers but what this truly means is zero growth.  The millennials are just meeting the previous high water mark the boomers set.  When the boomers came through, they nearly doubled the previous high water mark.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ron Paul Says to Watch the Petrodollar

Ron Paul Says to Watch the Petrodollar

 

The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value. We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or euros. The sooner the better. – Ron Paul

Ron Paul is calling for the end of the petrodollar system. This system is one of the main reasons the U.S. dollar is the world’s premier reserve currency.

Essentially, Paul is saying that understanding the petrodollar system and the forces affecting it is the best way to predict when the U.S. dollar will collapse.

Paul and I discussed this extensively at one of the Casey Research Summits. He told me he stands by his assessment.

Nick Giambruno and Ron Paul

This is critically important. When the dollar loses its coveted status as the world’s reserve currency, the window of opportunity for Americans to protect their wealth from the U.S. government will definitively shut.

At that point, the U.S. government will implement the same destructive measures other desperate governments have used throughout history: overt capital controls, wealth confiscation, people controls, price and wage controls, pension nationalizations, etc.

The dollar’s demise will wipe out the wealth of a lot of people. But it will also trigger political and social consequences likely to be far more damaging than the financial fallout.

The two key takeaways are:

  1. The U.S. dollar’s status as the premier reserve currency is tied to the petrodollar system.
  1. The sustainability of the petrodollar system relies on volatile geopolitics in the Middle East (where I lived and worked for several years).

From Bretton Woods to the Petrodollar

The Bretton Woods international monetary system, which the Allied powers created in 1944, turned the dollar into the world’s premier reserve currency.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Discovery

Discovery

It looks like 2016 will be the year that humanfolk learn that the stuff they value was not worth as much as they thought it was. It will be a harrowing process because a great many humans are abandoning ownership of things that are rapidly losing value — e.g. stocks on the Shanghai exchange — and stuffing whatever “money” they can recover into the US dollar, the assets and usufructs of which are also going through a very painful reality value adjustment.

Of course this calls into question foremost exactly what money is, and the answer is: basically a narrative construct. In other words, a story explaining why we behave the way we do around certain things. Some parts of the story have a closer relationship with reality than other parts. The part about the US dollar has a rather weak connection.

When various authorities — the BLS, the Federal Reserve, The New York Times — state that the US economy is “strong,” we can translate that to mean giant companies listed on the stock exchanges are able to put up a Potemkin façade of soundness. For instance, Amazon.com. The company continues to seem like a good idea. And it reinforces that idea in the collective imagination by sending a lot of low-priced goods to your door, (all bought on credit cards), which rings your (nearly) instant gratification bell. This has prompted investors to gobble up Amazon stock.

It’s well-established by now that the “brick-and-mortar” retail operations are majorly sucking wind. Meaning, fewer people are driving to the Target store and venues like it to buy stuff. Supposedly, they are buying stuff at Amazon instead. What interests me in that story is the idea that every single object purchased these days has a UPS journey attached to it. Of course, people also drive to the Target store, though I doubt they leave the place with just one thing.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

We Need a Crash to Sort the Wheat from the Chaff

We Need a Crash to Sort the Wheat from the Chaff

Once the phantom collateral vanishes, there’s no foundation to support additional debt and leverage.

When a speculator bought a new particle-board-and-paint McMansion in the middle of nowhere in 2007 with nothing down and a $500,000 mortgage, the lender and the buyer both considered the house as $500,000 of collateral. The lender counted the house as a $500,000 asset, and the speculator considered it his lottery ticket in the housing bubble sweepstakes: when (not if) the house leaped to $600,000, the speculator could sell, pay the commission and closing costs and skim the balance as low-risk profit.

But was the house really worth $500,000? That’s the trouble with assets bubbles inflated by central-bank/central-state intervention: when inefficient companies and inflated assets are never allowed to fall/fail, it’s impossible to tell the difference between real collateral and phantom collateral.

The implosion of the housing bubble led to an initial spike of price discovery. The speculator jingle-mailed the ownership of the poorly constructed McMansion to the lender, who ended up selling the home to another speculator who reckoned a 50% discount made the house cheap for $250,000.

But what was the enterprise value of the property, that is, how much revenue, cash flow and net income could the property generate in the open market as a rental? Comparables are worthless in terms of assessing collateral, because assets are mostly phantom collateral at bubble tops.

Let’s assume the enterprise value based on market rents was $150,000. The speculator who bought the house for $250,000 sold for a loss, and at the bottom of the cycle the house finally sold for its true value of $150,000.

Leveraged 20-to-1, the lender’s loss of $250,000 in collateral/capital unhinged $5 million of the lender’s portfolio as the capital supporting those loans vanished.

The first speculator who put nothing down suffered a loss of creditworthiness, and the second speculator lost $100,000 plus commissions when he dumped the property for a loss.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Today’s Money Regimes Are Doomed To Failure

Today’s Money Regimes Are Doomed To Failure

Centrally issued money centralizes wealth and generates systemic inequality.

A Thought Experiment on Money

Let’s imagine a small mountain kingdom with only ten very scarce and thus highly valued seashells in circulation.  These few shells are certainly valuable in terms of scarcity, but there aren’t enough of them to act as a means of exchange.

One solution to this innate problem of scarcity—money has to be scarce enough to retain value but not so scarce that there isn’t enough of it in circulation to grease trade—is for the kingdom to issue 100 slips of paper for each shell, each slip of paper representing 1/100th of the shell’s value. Now there is enough money in circulation to facilitate trade and each slip retains a store of value equal to 1/100th of a shell. The slips are paper money, i.e. currency.

This system works well, but the rulers of the kingdom aspire to consume goods and services in excess of what their share of the shell-backed money can buy in the open market.  The kingdom’s leaders print another 100 slips of paper without acquiring a shell to back the new slips with intrinsic value. Nobody seems to notice, and so the leaders print another 100 slips. Note that the kingdom didn’t produce more goods and services; its leaders simply produced more money.

Eventually this excess of paper slips reduces the value of each slip in circulation. What once cost 10 slips now costs 20 slips. This reduction in the purchasing power of money is called inflation, as the price of goods inflates as the money supply is increased while the production of goods and services remains unchanged.

Let’s assume the kingdom’s leaders avoid the temptation to expand their consumption by printing money rather than first increasing the production of goods and services.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Dollars are worthless without crude oil

Dollars are worthless without crude oil

In my previous post I drew some parallels between energy and money – and more specifically, energy and banking – and pointed out that when money is at stake, the presence of energy is likely lurking somewhere in the shadows. It was mostly hypotheses and observations I was throwing around about energy and banking, but when it comes to energy and money, one can hardly overstate the connection.

Take an Economics 101 class, however, and not only will it be very unlikely that you’ll ever hear of energy mentioned in a context besides that of a random commodity within the supply and demand workings of the “free market,” but what you will likely hear is that, gosh darnit, money is an efficiency-laden tool that we humans came up with ’cause we’re just so darn smart!

As the story goes, money was ingeniously invented with three primary roles in mind:

  1. A medium of exchange
  2. A store of value, and
  3. A unit of account

Otherwise put, money (supposedly) has absolutely nothing to do with energy.

– See more at: http://transitionvoice.com/2015/03/dollars-are-worthless-without-crude-oil/#sthash.OTsWvnFI.dpuf

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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