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An Alarming Trend Is Developing In US Shale Oil Production

May 8, 2024

Summary

U.S. oil production is currently around ~13 million b/d.
But despite the overall meaningful decrease in Lower 48 gas production, associated gas production remains strong.
In addition, EIA’s reported weekly NGL production continues to outpace crude production growth.
The market still falsely believes that US shale will continue for many years to come, but we think the reality is different from that.
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EIA oil storage report was fairly bullish today, with the crude draw of 6.4 million bbls outpacing our forecast of -4.33 million bbls. More importantly, in these weekly reports, we watch just how accurate we are at estimating U.S. crude production. And so far, things are looking good.

Looking at our real-time US oil production data, we saw a brief spike in implied US oil production in March. Considering that the weather fully normalized in the 2nd half of February and into March, US shale oil producers likely brought back production to full capacity by early March and sold off stored-up inventory. This likely caused a dislocation in our modified adjustment, which showed a false bump higher in production.

Why do we say that it was temporary? Well, if you look at the latest reading, the implied US oil production figure is back down to ~13 million b/d.

Another good way for readers to gauge just how accurate we are on US oil production is by looking at our US weekly crude storage estimate figure vs the EIA. If our draw is smaller than what EIA reports, then it implies a lower US oil production figure than we estimated…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

FIRST SHALE OIL DOMINO TO FALL: More to Follow

April 25, 2020

FIRST SHALE OIL DOMINO TO FALL: More to Follow

In a stunning news release, Continental Resources, the largest shale producer in the Bakken, is shutting in most of its production in the region. That is one hell of a lot of output to shut-in as Continental Resources was producing over 200,000 barrels per day in the Bakken at the end of 2019.

From the data on Shaleprofile.com, Continental Resources had over 2,200 wells in the North Dakota and Montana Bakken producing oil and gas during February this year. How many wells will Continental’s Harold Hamm shut in the Bakken?? And how many will be brought back online, at to what cost, when the market recovers??

According to Reuters, Continental Resources halts shale output, seeks to cancel sales:

April 23 (Reuters) – The largest oil producer in North Dakota has halted most of its production in the state, notifying some customers it would not supply crude at current pricing, according to people familiar with the matter.
Continental Resources Inc, the company controlled by billionaire Harold Hamm, stopped all drilling and shut in most of its wells in the state’s Bakken shale field, said three people familiar with production in the state. North Dakota is the second-largest oil-producing state in the United States after Texas.

This is terrible news for the U.S. Shale Oil Industry because $200 billion in debt is due over the next four years. How are they going to repay this debt if shale companies stop drilling and shutting in production??

If we look at the top five shale oil producers in the Bakken, Continental Resources was clearly ahead of the pack:

This chart from Shaleprofile.com shows that Continental Resources produced more than 200,000 barrels per day in the Bakken at the end of 2019. Hess, which is the second-ranked company, followed by a wide margin at 145,000 barrels per day. Interestingly, the third-largest producer in the Bakken is Whiting Petroleum that just filed for Bankruptcy on April 1st.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. Shale Faces Largest Ever Drop in Fracking Activity

April 23, 2020

U.S. Shale Faces Largest Ever Drop in Fracking Activity

The Covid-19 crisis combined with the oil price war is about to trigger the largest ever monthly drop in U.S. fracking activity.

The Covid-19 pandemic has ravaged global oil demand and, coupled with the extremely low price levels brought on by the wide supply surplus, is likely to cause the largest monthly drop in fracking activity ever recorded in the US, a Rystad Energy analysis shows.

We estimate that the total number of started frac operations will end up below 300 wells in April 2020; close to 200 in the Permian and less than 50 wells each in Bakken and Eagle Ford. This translates into a 60% decline in started frac operations between the peak level seen in January to February 2020 and April 2020, as the majority of public and private operators implement widespread frac holidays.

In March we observed an extreme 30% monthly decline in the number of started frac jobs in these three major oil basins, a fall from 807 in February to just 550. Also, nationwide fracking activity, on a completed jobs basis, might have already declined by around 20% in March 2020, according to our estimates.

“With such a rapid decline in fracking already visible, very little activity will be happening in the oil basins during the remainder of the second quarter of 2020. The natural base production decline, which we have seen as an absolute floor for production, therefore becomes an increasingly relevant production scenario,“ says Rystad Energy Head of Shale Research Artem Abramov.

If we assume that no new horizontal wells are put on production from April 2020 onwards, total LTO production will decline by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) by May, 2 million bpd by July and by 3 million bpd by October to November, with the Permian Basin accounting for more than half of nationwide base decline.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. Oil Drilling Grinds To A Halt At Key Shale Hotspots

April 16, 2020

U.S. Oil Drilling Grinds To A Halt At Key Shale Hotspots

Shale rig

Oil and gas production in the United States has peaked and is already in decline.

The latest data from the EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report sees widespread production declines across all major shale basins in the country. The Permian is set to lose 76,000 bpd between April and May, with declines also evident in the Eagle Ford (-35,000 bpd), the Bakken (-28,000 bpd), the Anadarko (-21,000 bpd) and the Niobrara (-20,000 bpd).

Natural gas production is also in decline, a reality that occurred prior to the global pandemic but is set to accelerate. The Appalachian basin (Marcellus and Utica shales) are expected to lose 326 million cubic feet per day (mcf/d) in May, a loss of 1 percent of supply. In percentage terms, the Anadarko basin in Oklahoma is expected to see an even larger drop off – 216 mcf/d in May, or a 3 percent decline in production.

The sudden declines in production illustrates the fatal flaw in the shale business model. Once drilling slows down, production can immediately go negative due to steep decline rates. Shale E&Ps have to keep running fast on the drilling treadmill in order to keep production aloft. But the meltdown in prices has forced the industry to idle 179 rigs since mid-March.

With drilling grinding to a halt, output has slumped as “legacy” production declines take hold. That is, without new wells coming online to offset the declines from existing wells, overall production falls.

In specific terms, the Permian, for example, will lose 356,000 bpd from “legacy” wells in May, more than overwhelming the 280,000 bpd in new output from new wells. On a net basis, the Permian is set to lose 76,000 bpd in May.

That legacy decline rate has deepened with each passing year, requiring more aggressive drilling each month to keep production on an upward trend. But the treadmill has finally caught up to the industry.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Texas Hit Hard By Shale Slowdown

October 30, 2019

Texas Hit Hard By Shale Slowdown

Texas’ economy is perhaps the most vulnerable to oil price swings given its leading role in the country’s oil industry. Recently, as prices have remained low, talk has begun about the outlook for the state’s economy.

According to a recent Reuters report, for example, smaller independent oil and gas producers in the Lone Star State are struggling to get loans from banks as the latter become increasingly wary of the ability of the borrowers to return the money when the time comes.

Jobs in the Texas oil and gas industry are falling, too. The Houston Business Journal reported this month that September saw a 1,100 decline in the number of jobs in the mining and logging sector—the category that includes oil and gas jobs. Over the 12 months from September 2018, the state’s oil and gas industry added just 1,700 new jobs, which was the lowest number of new job additions to any Texas industry over the same period, data from the Texas Workforce Commission showed.

Yet not everyone is worried. The University of Houston Energy Fellows, for instance, wrote in an article for Forbes that “the alarm bells are premature.” While the experts that make up the group acknowledge there are plenty of reasons to be worried about the economy of Houston—the article focuses on the city—oil prices are not among them.

The trade war with China and the anticipation of a global economic slowdown caused by it is a top concern for any economy and Houston is no exception. Political economic problems in Europe are also a cause for worry. Yet, according to the University of Houston Energy Fellows, bankruptcies in the Houston oil and gas industry are only slightly higher this year than last, and the credit crunch energy independents are facing now is “far from comparable to 2015-16.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

More Than 50% Of The Mighty Permian’s 2018 Oil Production Has Vaporized

October 11, 2019

More Than 50% Of The Mighty Permian’s 2018 Oil Production Has Vaporized

As dark clouds gather on the financial horizon, big trouble is brewing in the U.S. Shale Oil Industry. While most Americans are focused on the Mainstream media’s coverage of the ongoing Washington D.C. circus, the real threat to the domestic economy lies in the country’s oil heartland. And, if we look at what is taking place in the United States’ largest shale oil region, the signs are troubling.

The Permian Oil Basin in Texas and New Mexico accounts for nearly half (46%) of the total U.S. shale oil production. According to the data from Shaleprofile.com, Permian’s oil production peaked in May at 3.43 million barrels per day. Due to the massive decline rate, production in the Permian has stalled this year.

The chart below shows the Permian oil production declining even though more wells continue to be brought online. Unfortunately, there aren’t enough wells being added to offset the tremendous decline rate. You will notice how quickly the oil production that was added in 2018 (Light Blue color) has declined in just half a year:

To give you a better idea of the huge decline rate in Permian oil production, let’s only focus on 2018 and 2019 in the following charts. But, before doing so, I wanted to let everyone know that this information would not be possible without the data from Shaleprofile.com. I highly recommend that you check out Shaleprofile.com and consider subscribing to the service if you want to be able to access more details in the shale industry. It’s worth its weight in gold.

Let’s look at the Permian oil production just for 2018. Permian oil production brought on in 2018 peaked in December at 2,136,000 barrels oil per day (bopd) or 2,136K bopd, and declined to 1,056K bopd by July 2019. That is a STUNNING 50.5% decline in just seven months:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Price Correction Triggers Shale Meltdown

August 5, 2019

Oil Price Correction Triggers Shale Meltdown

It was a rough week for the U.S. shale industry.

A series of earnings reports came out in recent days, and while some drillers beat expectations, there were some huge misses as well.

Concho Resources, for instance, saw its share price tumble 22 percent when it disclosedseveral problems at once. Profits fell by 25 percent despite production increases. Concho conceded that it would slash spending and slow the pace of drilling in the second half of the year.

It also said that one of its projects where it tried to densely pack wells together, which it called “Dominator,” the results were not as good as they had hoped. The project had 23 wells, but production disappointed. The “30 and 60 day production rates were consistent with our other projects in that area, but the performance has declined,” Leach said. So, the company will abandon the densely packed well strategy and move forward with wider spacing.

In the second quarter the company had 26 rigs in operation, but that has since fallen to 18. At the start of the year, the company had 33 active rigs.

“We made the decision to adjust our drilling and completion schedule in the second half of the year to slow down and not chase incremental production at the expense of capital discipline,” Concho’s CEO Tim Leach told analysts on an earnings call. He said the company’s aiming for “a free cash flow inflection in 2020.”

The company reported a net loss of $792 million for the first six months of 2019. As Liam Denning put it in Bloomberg Opinion: “It’s sobering to think that Concho, valued at more than $23 billion in the spring of 2018 and having since absorbed the $7.6 billion purchase of RSP Permian Inc., now sports a market cap of less than $16 billion.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. Shale Is Doomed No Matter What They Do

July 22, 2019

U.S. Shale Is Doomed No Matter What They Do

With financial stress setting in for U.S. shale companies, some are trying to drill their way out of the problem, while others are hoping to boost profitability by cutting costs and implementing spending restraint. Both approaches are riddled with risk.

“Turbulence and desperation are roiling the struggling fracking industry,” Kathy Hipple and Tom Sanzillo wrote in a note for the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

They point to the example of EQT, the largest natural gas producer in the United States. A corporate struggle over control of the company reached a conclusion recently, with the Toby and Derek Rice seizing power. The Rice brothers sold their company, Rice Energy, to EQT in 2017. But they launched a bid to take over EQT last year, arguing that the company’s leadership had failed investors. The Rice brothers convinced shareholders that they could steer the company in a better direction promising $500 million in free cash flow within two years.

Their bet hinged on more aggressive drilling while simultaneously reducing costs. Their strategy also depends on “new, unproven, expensive technology, electric frack fleets,” IEEFA argued. “This seems like more of the same – big risky capital expenditures.”

EQT’s former CEO Steve Schlotterbeck recently made headlines when he called fracking an “unmitigated disaster” because it helped crash prices and produce mountains of red ink. “In fact, I’m not aware of another case of a disruptive technological change that has done so much harm to the industry that created the change,” Schlotterbeck said at an industry conference in June. Related: Will The U.S Gas Glut Cap Oil Production?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Here’s Putin’s Answer To The U.S. Shale Boom

July 9, 2019

Here’s Putin’s Answer To The U.S. Shale Boom

Last week saw Japan’s Mitsui and Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation agree to buy a 10% stake in Novatek’s Arctic LNG (liquefied natural gas) 2 project for an officially undisclosed price, although Russia’s President Vladimir Putin independently stated that the investment would be around US$3 billion. The fact that Putin himself commented on the deal underlines how important the exploration and development of the Arctic region is for the Russian state as a source of potentially vast new oil and gas resources and the accretion of further geopolitical influence, akin to the game-changing shale industry for the U.S. Russia’s current development of the Arctic region is centred around the Yamal Peninsula and led principally Novatek but further developments are in the offing from Gazprom and Gazprom Neft, even in the face of current and future U.S. sanctions.

Novatek’s main Arctic project, the Yamal LNG (unofficially referred to as ‘Arctic 1’) last week announced that it produced 9.0 million tons of LNG and 0.6 million tons of stable gas condensate in the first half of this year, with all three LNG trains running above the 5.5 million tons per annum (mtpa) nameplate capacity over that period. This resulted in 126 LNG tanker shipments being dispatched in the six month period via trans-shipment from the ice-class LNG carriers to conventional vessels in Norway and delivered onto the global markets, mostly to Russia’s key target markets in Asia. Overall, the Yamal LNG project consists of a 17.4 mtpa natural gas liquefaction plant comprised of three LNG trains of 5.5 mtpa each and one LNG train of 900 thousand tons per annum, utilising the hydrocarbon resources of the South-Tambeyskoye field in the Russian Arctic.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is US Shale Cannibalizing Itself?

July 9, 2019

Is US Shale Cannibalizing Itself?

U.S. oil production continues to grow, but the shale industry is in the midst of a deceleration as low oil prices and a financial squeeze slow the pace of drilling.

The U.S. added 246,000 bpd of fresh supply in April, the latest month for which data solid is available. That put to rest concerns that the industry was in the midst of contraction, after production fell in January and February (some of which was due to offshore maintenance). Even as the rig count continues to fall, production grinds higher.

The EIA expects output to grow by another 70,000 bpd in July, with the Permian alone adding 55,000 bpd.

But the rate of growth is slowing. In April, production was up 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) compared to the same month a year earlier. By any measure, that is a massive increase. But it is down sharply from the nearly 2.1 mb/d year-on-year increase seen in August 2018, which looks set to be the peak in terms of the pace of growth.

U.S. oil production is not in danger of outright decline, not for the foreseeable future. But growth is clearly slowing. The U.S. could add 1.3 mb/d of new supply this year, according to an average of forecasts from multiple analysts, compiled by Reuters. That figure would be down from 1.5 mb/d of additional supply that came online in 2018. Related: Another Beneficiary Of The OPEC Deal Emerges

Financial stress is spreading, and top industry executives in Texas are arguably at their gloomiest in years. Consolidation and bankruptcies could pick up pace in the next few months, a bankruptcy attorney told Reuters.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

SHALE STOCK LOSES 99% OF ITS VALUE: Investor Warning For The Future Of The Industry?

April 21, 2019

SHALE STOCK LOSES 99% OF ITS VALUE: Investor Warning For The Future Of The Industry?

If you think the carnage taking place in the shale oil companies is nearly over, you couldn’t be more wrong. I believe the bloodbath in the shale oil stocks has only just begun. Once we see the majority of shale stocks trading on the pink sheets as penny stocks will we finally close the book on the Greatest Energy Ponzi Scheme in history.

I first wrote about the “Disconnect” between the major oil companies share prices versus the shale stocks in my article, THE BLOODBATH IN U.S. SHALE STOCKS CONTINUES: Worst Is Yet To Come. In that article, I showed how several of the major oil companies’ stock prices had corrected back close to their highs set in October 2018. However, the shale stocks never really recovered and are still considerably lower than their peaks set last year.

Here is the chart from that article linked above:

Even though many of the shale stocks shown in this chart have seen their prices move higher since I posted it in the middle of March, they are still well off their highs. For example, Whiting Petroleum peaked at $55 in October and is currently trading at $27. Thus, it is still 50% off its peak last year. Furthermore, Oasis trading at $6.60 is still 53% off its high of $14.

However, there are some outliers like Pioneer. Pioneer hit $190 back in October 2018 and was only trading at $140 in mid-March. So, it was still well off its October peak. Although over the past month, Pioneer is now trading at $175, so it’s not too far from its previous high. While Pioneer’s share price is behaving much better than Whiting, Continental, Oasis, and Callon, I believe there is a huge “PERMIAN PREMIUM” being paid by investors who have more money than sense.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Prices Spike On Shale Slowdown

April 2, 2019

Oil Prices Spike On Shale Slowdown

The collapse of oil prices late last year, along with pressure from shareholders, has led to a slowdown in the U.S. shale industry.

The EIA released new monthly data on March 29, which revealed a decline in output of about 90,000 bpd between December and January, evidence that shale drillers slammed on the breaks after oil prices fell off a cliff in the fourth quarter. The 90,000-bpd decline came after a rather meager 35,000-bpd increase the month before, which was the weakest increase in months.

But the U.S. shale industry is facing more headwinds than just a temporary dip in oil prices. Shareholders have run out of patience with unprofitable drilling, and are demanding returns, which is tightening the screws on less competitive companies and forcing spending cutbacks across the board. More worrying for the industry is a growing recognition of the “parent-child” well problem – the unexpected poor performance of subsequent wells drilled in close proximity to the original “parent” well.

These obstacles are beginning to pile up. Schlumberger and Halliburton, the two top oilfield services companies, have predicted that shale drillers will be forced to collectively cut spending by more than 10 percent this year.

The slowdown could put some bullish pressure on the oil market, already suffering from outages in Venezuela, Iran and coordinated cuts from OPEC+. While U.S. inventories rose unexpectedly last week, much of the increase can be chalked up to turmoil in the Houston Ship Channel following a major fire at a petrochemical facility.

Indeed, some analysts see significant stock declines in the next few weeks. “The most visible inventory levels in the world…will fall victim to a potent mix of Venezuelan supply disruptions, a Houston Ship Channel chemical spill, and an uptick in refining runs,” Barclays wrote in a note on March 29. The investment bank sees WTI rising to an average of $65 per barrel this year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Spending Boost Fails To Raise Production In The Permian

August 22, 2018

Spending Boost Fails To Raise Production In The Permian

The U.S. shale industry is gearing up to spend more this year, despite assurances to maintain capital discipline.

In the second quarter, shale companies signaled their intention to lift capex. Part of the reason is that costs are on the rise, so some drillers have to spend more to produce the same amount of oil and gas. That was an unexpected development, and one that shareholders are not happy about.

A survey of 33 shale companies by Rystad Energy found that while the group revised up spending by about 8 percent, they only increased their expected production levels for this year by 1.4 percent. “This disconnect might suggest that the shale industry requires more capital than before to achieve healthy production growth,” Rystad said in a new report.

There are some signs that the Permian, for instance, is running into some productivity problems, raising the possibility that the highly touted “efficiency gains” over the past few years are reaching their limit.

On the other hand, the industry is also spending more because they have plans to increase drilling activity, which could lead to higher output next year. “[W]hile a part of increased spending is due to service cost inflation, a significant part of the incremental budget is also planned to be used for additional drilling throughout 2H 2018 to support more intensive completion activity and production growth in 2019,” Rystad Energy said in its report.

The largest spending increase came from companies focused on the Permian basin, which is not surprising given both the frenzied pace of drilling in West Texas as well as the reports that the basin is suffering from bouts of cost inflation. Occidental Petroleum stood out from the bunch, with an announced increase in spending by $900 million.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Top U.S. Shale Producers Soaring Debt Service Guts Profits

August 14, 2018

Top U.S. Shale Producers Soaring Debt Service Guts Profits

The massive debt accumulated by the U.S. Shale Industry is now decimating company profits. As company debts and interest rates rise, these shale producers interest expense also continues to increase. Debt service is not only cutting into company profits, but it also takes a great deal of oil and gas production to cover this expense.

For example, 16 of the top U.S. shale energy companies racked up a hefty $5 billion interest payment. The company with the highest annual interest expense is Anadarko Energy at a stunning $932 million in 2017:

Devon Energy came in a distant second at $514 million while Chesapeake took the third spot at $425 million. The 16 shale energy companies shown on the right-hand side of the chart are listed from highest to lowest annual interest expense for 2017. And, it is a simple rule-of-thumb that the higher the annual interest expense, the higher overall debt on the company’s balance sheet.

Anadarko has such a high annual interest expense ($932 million) because it holds over $15 billion in debt. Devon Energy had the second highest interest expense in 2017 due to its $10+ billion in debt. However, Devon has recently sold assets and paid down its debt and lowered its interest expense considerably. Furthermore, Chesapeake is paying $425 million a year to service its $9+ billion in debt.

It is quite remarkable that these 16 shale energy companies forked out $5 billion to service their debt last year. The debt service is an expense that impacts the company’s net income profits.

For example, Anadarko posted a loss of $456 million in 2017. However, they paid $932 million in interest expense last year. If Anadarko didn’t have an interest expense, their $456 million loss would have been a $479 million net income profit. So, these 16 companies lost $5 billion in potential profits because they have to service their skyrocketing debts.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Leveraged Economy BLOWS UP In 2018

January 5, 2018

The Leveraged Economy BLOWS UP In 2018

Enjoy the good times while you can because when the economy BLOWS UP this next time, there is no plan B. Sure, we could see massive monetary printing by Central Banks to continue the madness a bit longer after the market crashes, but this won’t be a long-term solution. Rather, the U.S. and global economies will contract to a level we have never experienced before. We are most certainly in unchartered territory.

Before I get into my analysis and the reasons we are heading towards the Seneca Cliff, I wanted to share the following information. I haven’t posted much material over the past week because I decided to spend a bit of quality time with family. Furthermore, a good friend of mine past away which put me in a state of reflection. This close friend was also very knowledgeable about our current economic predicament and was a big believer in owning gold and silver. So, it was a quite a shame to lose someone close by who I could chat with about these issues.

While some of my family members know about my work, I don’t really discuss it with them. If they ever have a question, I will try to answer it, but I found out years ago that it was a waste of time to try and impose my knowledge upon them. Which is the very reason I started my SRSrocco Report website… LOL. So, now I have a venue to get my analysis out to the public. I don’t care about reaching everyone, but rather to provide important information to those who are OPEN to it.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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