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Tag Archives: Tuomas Malinen
The Endgame, Part I
The Endgame, Part I The Russo-Ukrainian war and geopolitics of Europe In early February, I posted a poll on X asking whether I should write a geopolitical piece on the Russo-Ukrainian war, adding to my series mapping a worst-case scenario for the war. While the vote count for this particular poll was not very high, an overwhelming majority supported […]
The Sword of Damocles
The Sword of Damocles An economic worst-case scenario for the Israeli-Palestine war (Free) On Tuesday, I published a post on X (Twitter), which summarized an economic worst-case scenario for the Israeli-Palestine war. It included 10 points: The conflict escalates into a regional war with the U.S. becoming directly involved. OPEC responds with an oil embargo. Iran closes […]
A Banking Crisis Looms
General view of the Bank of England, in the financial district known as The City, in London on Aug. 2, 2021. (Alberto Pezzali/AP Photo) A Banking Crisis Looms My columns have turned rather apocalyptic of late, but for a valid reason. Just this week, we got confirmation that our financial system is, again, on the […]
The Failure of Central Banking: Politics
The seal of the Federal Reserve on a U.S. banknote. (Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images) The Failure of Central Banking: Politics The view was generally held that centralization of banking would inevitably result in one of two alternatives: either complete government control, which meant politics in banking, or control by ‘Wall Street,’ which meant banking in politics. – Paul […]
The long history of money
The long history of money We are approaching a critical turning point in the history of financial systems. Since the Great Financial Crisis, central banks have exerted control over the financial markets through their QE-programs and plan to extend their influence over the monetary system through the introduction of national digital currencies. Opposing forces include, as […]
Are we in a ‘New Normal’?
Are we in a ‘New Normal’? The past two years have been especially brutal to so-called equity ‘bears’. Against all odds, and despite all the shocks, global capital markets—if not the real economy they are supposed to represent—have continued to climb to new heights. After the onset of the coronavirus catastrophe, the relentless rise of […]
The anatomy of a financial crisis
The anatomy of a financial crisis In this blog, we present the anatomy of a financial crisis. A characteristic feature of a banking crisis is that it tends to follow, more-or-less, the same path regardless of the ‘shock’ or ‘trigger’ that initiates it. The next phase of the crisis is likely to be a global […]
The worst economic collapse ever?
The worst economic collapse ever? Country after country has reported extremely dark economic numbers. The gigantic jobless claims, 6.6 million from the U.S. last week, are just the tip of the iceberg. For example, the service sector PMIshave been simply ghastly across the globe. We are now in a crisis of epic proportions. But, how massive […]
We Finally Understand How Destructive Negative Interest Rates Actually Are
We Finally Understand How Destructive Negative Interest Rates Actually Are We are in the midst of a strange economic experiment. Vast quantities of negative-yielding debt are currently sloshing around the global economy. While the amount of negative-yielding bonds has dropped recently from a mind-boggling number in excess of $17 trillion, reinvigorated central bank easing across […]
A tale of two deflations
A tale of two deflations Japanification is a term that has re-emerged recently. It refers to the prolonged economic stagnation of Japan, which commenced after a financial crash in the early 1990s. The stagnation of Japan has been marked by very low inflation (recurring periods of deflation), stagnating productivity growth and a massive increase in government […]
The failing engines of global growth
The failing engines of global growth The global slowdown has been much discussed lately. A slowdown in Europe and China was considered to be the main reason for the December stock market rout combined with the balance sheet normalization (QT) program of the Federal Reserve. What is behind the slowdown? No satisfactory answer has emerged, […]
