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February Non-OPEC Oil Production Climbs

February Non-OPEC Oil Production Climbs

Below are a number of crude oil plus condensate (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to February 2022. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world.

February Non-OPEC production increased by 303 kb/d to 49,926 kb/d. Of the 303 kb/d increase, the biggest increase came from Canada 225 kb/d. Offsetting the increase were decreases from Brazil 116 kb/d and China 92 kb/d. The Febuary 2022 output of 49,926 kb/d is 2,274 kb/d lower than the March pre-covid rate of 52,200 kb/d.

Using data from the June 2022 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the time period March 2022 to December 2023. (Red graph).  Output is expected to reach 51,038 kb/d in December 2023. This is a 536 kb/d increase over the level reported in the previous report. Note the production drop of 848 kb/d to 48,947 kb/d in April in the red graph is associated with a production drop in the former Soviet Union.

Above are listed the world’s 11th largest Non-OPEC producers. The original criteria for inclusion in the table was that all of the countries produced more than 1,000 kb/d. The UK has been below 1,000 kb/d since January 2021. 

In February 2022, these 11 countries produced 84.5% of the Non-OPEC oil. On a YoY basis, Non-OPEC production increased by 2,929 kb/d while on a MoM basis production, it increased by 303 kb/d. World YoY February output increased by 6,750 kb/d. 

Production by Country

The EIA reported Brazil’s February production decreased by 116 kb/d to 2,917 kb/d. Brazil’s National Petroleum Association reported that April’s output increased by 18 kb/d to 2,999 kb/d, reversing February’s decline. (Red Markers). 

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US March Oil Production Rebounds Strongly From Winter Storm Low

US March Oil Production Rebounds Strongly From Winter Storm Low

All of the oil (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM. The charts below are updated to March 2021 for the 10 largest US oil producing states.

U.S. March production increased by 1,401 kb/d to 11,184 kb/d from Februaryʼs output of 9,783 kb/d and was also 128 kb/d higher than January’s. The increase was due to the rebound from the severe winter storm that hit the four US southern states, Texas, New Mexico, Louisiana and Oklahoma. Note that February’s output of 9,862 kb/d in the previous report was revised down by 79 kb/d to 9,783 kb/d in the current report.

The May STEO report forecasted US March output would be 10,939 kb/d vs the reported actual output for March of 11,184, an under estimate of 245 kb/d. Note that March output was 57 kb/d higher than January.

In the onshore lower 48, March production increased by 1,298 kb/d, red graph. The 103 kb/d difference between the two was largely due to the 107 kb/d increase from the GOM.

Ranking Production from US States

Listed above are the 10 states with the largest US production. These 10 accounted for (79.8%) of US production out of a total production of 11,184 kb/d in March 2021. 

Of these 10 states, Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma had the biggest percentage output increases relative to February. On a YoY basis, all states except New Mexico had a lower output than last year. Note also that New Mexico surpassed North Dakota in output and moved into second place.

Rig additions continued in the US from the August low of 172 to 359 in the last week of May. Over the last month there is a hint of slowing in rig additions in Texas and the Permian.

Frac spreads continue to increase at an average rate of close to 15.1/mth. 

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