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“Minsky Moments Almost Certainly Await”: Nomura Fears ‘Collateral’ Damage From The QE-to-QT Transition

January 10, 2022

“Minsky Moments Almost Certainly Await”: Nomura Fears ‘Collateral’ Damage From The QE-to-QT Transition

“Minsky Moments” almost certainly await, warns Nomura’s Charlie McElligott in his latest note as he reflects on a massive week ahead for markets.

With Powell testimony and bunches of Fed speakers, along with US economic releases headlined by the market’s most important datapoint in the CPI release Wednesday, in addition to PPI, Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment over the course of the week, plus two Duration-heavy auctions ($36B of 10Y and $22B 30Y, on top of tomorrow’s $52B 3Y),… and finally, US corporate earnings season kickoff (highlighted by JPM, C and WFC this upcoming Friday), it is no wonder that investors are degrossing still…

While the long-end of the curve is reversing modestly – after some more ugliness overnight – STIRs continue to grind hawkishly higher with March now consolidating around a 90% chance of a rate-hike…

McElligott raises some worries of a rapid ‘reversal’ risk in bonds – via “market tantrum” forcing the Fed to yet-again “Bend the Knee” – as market positioning in bonds is extreme to say the least.

Looking at the QIS CTA Trend model to get a sense of the “bearish momentum” and asymmetry within Fixed-Income positioning, we currently see the net exposure across G10 Bonds is back to 10 year historical “extreme Short” at just 2.2%ile overall exposure since 2011; further, the aggregate $notional position across the agg G10 Bond positions is now greater that -2 SD rank (i.e. very “net Short”) dating all the way back to 2002.

Similarly, the Nomura MD notes that eventually, the more this selloff in legacy long / crowded hyper Growth Tech extends, there is ultimately a mounting risk of a sharp counter-trend rally in beaten-down Nasdaq, particularly considering the extremely magnitude of the Dealer “short Gamma” profile in QQQ ($Gamma -$476mm, 3.4%ile since 2013…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Archegos Implosion is a Sign of Massive Stock Market Leverage that Stays Hidden until it Blows Up and Hits the Banks

March 29, 2021

Archegos Implosion is a Sign of Massive Stock Market Leverage that Stays Hidden until it Blows Up and Hits the Banks

Banks, as prime brokers and counterparties to the hedge fund, are eating multi-billion-dollar losses as they try to get out of these secretive stock derivative positions.

The implosion of an undisclosed hedge fund, now widely reported to be Archegos Capital Management, is hitting the stocks of banks that served as prime brokers to the fund. The highly leveraged derivative positions, based on stocks, had blown up spectacularly. Banks get into these risky leveraged deals because they generate enormous amounts of profit – until they blow up and banks get hit as counterparties.

Credit Suisse [CS] is down 13% at the moment in US trading after it warned this morning that “a significant US-based hedge fund defaulted on margin calls made last week by Credit Suisse and certain other banks,” and that it and “a number of other banks are in the process of exiting these positions,” and that the loss resulting from this exit “could be highly significant and material to our first quarter results.” The bank deemed it “premature to quantify” the loss.

Nomura Holdings [NMR] is down 14% at the moment in US trading after it warned this morning that “an event occurred that could subject one of its US subsidiaries to a significant loss arising from transactions with a US client.” It estimated the loss from this one client at “approximately $2 billion, based on market prices as of March 26.”

As Credit Suisse pointed out, “a number of other banks” are also involved as counterparties to that one unnamed hedge fund, and have been trying to get out of these positions since last week.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

financial markets, archegos, wolf richter, wolfstreet, stock market leverage, credit suisse, banks, nomura

“Calamity”: Nomura Warns Or VaR Shock Adding To “Untradeable Markets”

March 9, 2020

“Calamity”: Nomura Warns Or VaR Shock Adding To “Untradeable Markets”

Over the weekend, in our initial response to the shocking Saudi “scorched earth” price war declaration, we said that “once Brent craters on Monday to the mid-$30s or lower, the accompanying implosion in 10Y yields could make the record plunge in yields seen on Friday a dress rehearsal for what could be the biggest VaR shock of all time.“

Sure enough, among the many panic touchpoint on Monday morning which have seen virtually every risk market in persistent liquidation, Nomura’s Charlie McElligott writes that the fresh VaR shock is adding to “undtradeable markets” as the crude price shock adds to cross-asset VaR-down as traders are forced to liquidate a substantial portion of their long books; Amid the chaos, Fed Funds futures are pricing 100bps of cuts by end of month, with systematic/CTA models showing Nasdaq is set to sell/deleverage large dollar notional from what was the last of the legacy “+100% Longs” in Equities, with McElligott warning that this “probable Nasdaq puke comes at a dangerous seasonal for “Momentum” factor, where April is the worst monthly return for the factor back to ’84.“

* * *

Taking a step back, it all started with oil, and specifically the start of the Saudi price war, which sent Brent and WTI -31% in last night’s reopen, both currently trading around -20.0%.

Why such an “outsized” move in Crude? As the Nomura quant explains, adding to what we already said about the commodity’s forced selling threat, “crude is particularly exposed to “Negative Gamma” shocks due the inherent and massive “Commercial” nature of (downside) hedgers in the space—so on top of already being an illiquid mess in the futures contract, then imagine being a market maker who has sold Puts to major E&Ps and was already staring into the abyss after the last two weeks’ -25% move…now having to sell futures deep in-the-hole of the reopen gap lower last night/today.“

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Nomura Exposes The Fed’s Imminent “Mega-Shift” – Beware Quad Witch & “Untethered” Markets

September 18, 2019

Nomura Exposes The Fed’s Imminent “Mega-Shift” – Beware Quad Witch & “Untethered” Markets

“This is a big deal,” warns Nomura’s Charlie McElligott – a man not known for hyperbole – as he reflects on the sudden, dramatic changes occurring in the very deepest levels of plumbing of the world’s supposed most-liquid markets.

Another massively over-subscribed repo liquidity injection this morning, coupled with The Fed’s dramatic loss of control of rates suggest what McElligott calls a “potential mega-shift” in policy from The Fed.

Nomura Chief Economist Lew Alexander shifted his call for today’s FOMC meeting to include:

An announcement that the Fed will resume the expansion of the balance sheet again in coming weeks (in addition to a 25bps cut and likely announcement of ongoing “as needed” repo transactions in order to maintain short-term interest rates within a range that is consistent with the target range for funds rate—however, we still do NOT anticipate an imminent announcement of a “Standing Repo Facility” nor another lowering of IOER relative to the top of the FF target range today…while we also expect the dots to show no further rate cuts at this juncture, despite our “house” call for one more cut in either Oct or Dec)

McElligott’s Bottom line:

Due to the acute nature of the $funding stress dynamic in recent days, I believe the delta of a Fed “balance sheet expansion” headline today (one which would begin imminently) is significantly underpriced in the market and risks catching investors “off guard”.

The market’s “muscle memory” in the post-GFC period has condition many participants into believing that “balance sheet expansion = QE” and risks a “BULLISH risk-asset sentiment shock” (FWIW, “BS expansion = QE” is NOT actually the case per se, as what we think the Fed plans to do is much more “QE-Lite” in order to offset the Reserve depletion dynamic—NOT inject incremental liquidity “above and beyond” to actually “pump up” Reserves).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Nomura: The Fed Will Go Large; Expect A 50bp Cut Out Of The Gate… And Soon

April 29, 2019

Nomura: The Fed Will Go Large; Expect A 50bp Cut Out Of The Gate… And Soon

it may seem morbid, if not grotesque, to discuss the Fed cutting rates on the day when the S&P just hit a new all time high, but as a result of the previously discussed US bank liquidity and dollar shortage thesis, now also espoused by JPMorgan, and the coincident “funding-squeeze” dynamic, which as we have shown over the past week has expressed itself via the much-discussed “Fed Funds (Effective) trading through IOER” phenomenon…

… this is precisely the topic of the latest note from Nomura’s Charlie McElligott who writes this morning that with the Fed increasingly concerned about what even the big banks admit is a funding shortage in the US banking system (ironically enough, with over $1.4 trillion in excess reserves still sloshing in the system), Powell may have no choice but to cut rates aggressively, slash the IOER rate – perhaps as soon as this week – and eventually resume QE.

As if to validate McElligott’s point, amid increasing buzz of an imminent rate cut, the dollar keeps rising, and instead of tracking rate cut odds, which are now back to cycle highs, is instead tracking the excess EFF over IOER tick for tick as the clearest indicator of what is now perceived as a widespread liquidity shortage, and in doing so is escalating the recent turmoil across EMFX, as the US Dollar breaks out to fresh highs despite Friday’s worse than expected (below the surface) GDP print.

As discussed over the weekend, McElligott reminds readers that there is now “again a mounting belief in the market for a Fed “technical” IOER cut at some point into the Summer” –

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Market Is “Pulling Forward End-Of-Cycle Timing” – Nomura Warns of Shift To “Risk-Negative Mindset”

October 23, 2018

The Market Is “Pulling Forward End-Of-Cycle Timing” – Nomura Warns of Shift To “Risk-Negative Mindset”

With global investors desperately searching for a narrative to explain “what changed” as the calendar flipped a page to exuberant September to awful October, we suspect the realization of the fact that global central bank balance sheets are contracting and the world is tightening finally started to dawn on even the most ardent dip-buyer…

Even China’s promise of never-ending support for stocks was unable to support stocks overnight, and as Nomura’s MD of cross-asset strategy notes:

This then looks like general Macro consensual positioning “gross-down” flow, as “Longs” in SPX, Nikkei, Crude and USD are under pressure, while “Shorts” in USTs, ED$, EUR and Gold all squeeze.

Additionally, Charlie McElligott points out that the S&P as the “YTD global Equities safe-haven” theme now too is “cracking”:

After shattering through the 200d MA once again yesterday, S&P futures are now again within reach of the MTD lows (2712) as discretionary tactical longs “tap out” and asset managers continue to sell-down legacy longs (still ~$80B in SPX)

Pointing out that the S&P has big gamma at 2700 strikes (~$3.9B for 10/26 expiry, ~$3.6B for 10/29 expiry) with the largest “pull” remaining at the 2750 strike (~$4.7B / ~$4.0B)

The strategist warns of a slow and ongoing “pain trade” for legacy consensual Equities fund positioning as our global Equities factor monitors showing “Growth” again hit hard to the benefit of “Value” overnight across Asia-Pac, Japan and Europe (on top of the same ongoing MTD theme in U.S.)

This of course was the top concern going into EPS season:

would investors pivot to “late-cycle” mentality with regard to the likelihood of generally “lowered guidance,” or would they take the “glass half full” route of “lower bars to beat” in Q4

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Has China Finally Lifted its Thumb off of Gold?

October 19, 2018

Has China Finally Lifted its Thumb off of Gold?

There’s a lot of talk about the Yuan price of gold falling out of a price suppression channel. Both Zerohedge and Nomura have weighed in on this.

The Yuan price of gold surged overnight to above CNY 8500 per ounce which is a major breakdown But it’s also indicative of something that has long been suspected during this gold bear market.

China doesn’t want the price of gold to rise. Those accumulating gold — China and Russia — have zero incentive to accumulate at higher prices. And the gold chart of the last three years bears out that they have had to come in at higher prices on pullbacks because market bottoms keep coming in higher and higher.

The 2015 low was around $1050. 2016 at $1146. 2017 the low after a pullback in July couldn’t breach $1208 during a strong post-U.S. election rally. This year the price was briefly pushed below $1200 in the longest downtrend of the seven year bear market but has since popped back over $1230 with its sights now set on $1250.

China may have no choice here but to let the price of gold rise. Because conditions in other markets are changing rapidly. So, ultimately, what China wants really may not matter anymore.

Remember, the eurodollar markets broke in late May this year as Jeffrey Snider at Alhambra Partners reminds us daily.

The PBoC cut the reserve ratio again recently to free up liquidity in Chinese banks but it doesn’t seem to have stemmed the tide. And that’s why it has continually loosened the Yuan fix rate, now approaching 7 vs. the U.S. dollar.

Offshore dollar markets are the pool of real savings in the global economy and it determines where we are headed. And the offshore dollar hoarders are pulling out of China… and Europe… and Japan…. and South America.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Shocktober’s Not Over – McElligott Sees More “Rolling Minsky Moments” As “Pseudo-Stability” Unravels

October 15, 2018

Shocktober’s Not Over – McElligott Sees More “Rolling Minsky Moments” As “Pseudo-Stability” Unravels

Just before last week’s interest-rate driven market selloff entered its most acute phase, we cited CTA positioning data from Nomura showing that systematic funds had not yet begun the painful process of deleveraging as certain “triggers” had not yet been met. But shortly after this commentary from Nomura’s cross-asset strategist Charlie McElligott had been distributed to Nomura’s clients, the selling pressure intensified, busting through trigger levels in a way that only exacerbated what became the most intense selloff in SPX since February (and the biggest for NDX since Brexit).

With markets creeping higher again after Wednesday’s furious selloff, McElligott chimed in with an update to Nomura’s positioning models that incorporated this latest break. As of Wednesday’s close, McElligott acknowledged that the Nomura Quant Strategies CTA model was indicating that these systematic sellers had reduced down to “43% Long” from “100% Max Long” 1 week ago, resulting in an estimated $88BN in one day selling on the one day move from “97% Long”, the positioning at the start of Wednesday’s session, all the way down to “43% Long.”

With his audience clamoring for more guidance about what, exactly, triggered the market wreck of this past week, McElligott made a brief appearance Thursday afternoon on the MacroVoices podcast, where he got “philosophical” during an interview with Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna, arguing that this week’s equities driven selloff actually had a deeper “macro origin.”

Again, if I’m really stepping back and talking almost more philosophically, it’s the bigger picture here is that a higher real interest rate environment is resetting term premiums. And, with that, the cost of leverage, cross-asset correlations, asset price valuation – all of these constructs built into the post-crisis quantitative easing era are now ripe to tip over.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Kuroda Suggests “No Limit” To More NIRP Measures To Stall Japanese Bond Yields, Stocks, USDJPY Plunge

February 2, 2016

Kuroda Suggests “No Limit” To More NIRP Measures To Stall Japanese Bond Yields, Stocks, USDJPY Plunge

With Nikkei 225 down 800 points from post-NIRP highs and USDJPY having almost roundtripped, there is little wonder that Japanese government bond yields are collapsing to imply considerably deeper NIRP to come. With 10Y JGBs on the verge of a negative yield, 2Y yields are now at -17bps (well below Kuroda’s -10bps level). Japanese bank stocks are a bloodbath with Nomura leading the way lower.

We’re gonna need more NIRP…

*JAPAN’S TOPIX INDEX FALLS 3.3% TO 1,404.75 AT MORNING CLOSE
*JAPAN’S NIKKEI 225 FALLS 3.1% TO 17,194.17 AT MORNING CLOSE

And that is what bonds are implying…

*JAPAN’S 2-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO RECORD MINUS 0.17%
*JAPAN’S 10-YEAR BOND YIELD FALLS TO RECORD 0.045%

With the entire curve to 8Y below BoJ’s -10bps level…

And Japanese bank stocks are plunging…

Led by Nomura’s 11%-plus plunge – the most since 2011…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Citi On Why Negative Rates Are Like Potato Chips: “No One Can Have Just One”

January 31, 2016

Citi On Why Negative Rates Are Like Potato Chips: “No One Can Have Just One”

Now that Japan has let the negative rates genie out of the bottle, or as DB put it, ‘opened the Pandora’s Box‘ and in the process unleashed the latest global “silent bank run” and capital flight, prepare to hear a whole lot more about NIRP in the coming weeks because as Citi’s Steven Englander put it, “Why are Negative Rates like Potato Chips? No one can have just one.”

This is what else Englander said:

You can admire the policy boldness of the BoJ move into negative rates, and recognise its powerful asset market effects – positive for equities and negative for JPY. Experience in other countries that have entered into this territory should sober you up on the likely economic and inflation impact. No country that has gone into negative rates has experienced major shifts in its growth and inflation profile – minor, yes; major, no. As a consequence every dip into negative rates has been followed by additional moves.

Negative rates are a powerful inducement for cash to leave the banking system, but there is little evidence that investors take the cash and build steel plants with it. They buy foreign and financial assets, which is probably more than enough for the BoJ.

Some further thoughts from Citi’s FX desk, and why the BOJ ultimately shot itself, and other central banks, in the foot:

As the dust settles on the BoJ reaction, USDJPY is somewhat higher and risk currencies have begun to rebound following an initial dip. However, the price action has not been one-sided. Partly this seems to reflect the tendency of many investors to dismiss the rate move as diluted given its tiered implementation. Of the investors I have spoken to since the decision, a significant majority were inclined to poke holes in the decision.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bob Janjuah Warns The Bubble Implosion Can’t Be “Fixed” This Time

January 7, 2016

Bob Janjuah Warns The Bubble Implosion Can’t Be “Fixed” This Time

Having correctly foreseen in September that “China’s devaluations are not over yet” it appears Nomura’s infamous ‘bear’ Bob Janjuah has also nailed The Fed’s subsequent actions (hiking rates into a fundamentally weakening economy in a desperate bid to “convince markets that strong growth and inflation are on their way back”). In light of this, his latest note today should be worrisome to many as he warns the S&P 500 will trade down around 20% to 25% from current levels in H1, down to the 1500s and for dip-buyers, it’s over: “I now feel even more certain that debt-driven asset bubble implosions cannot merely be ‘fixed’ with even more debt and another round of central bank-driven asset bubbles.”

As Janjuah said in September (excerpted):

I believe there is more weakness ahead – both fundamentally and within markets – over Q4 and perhaps into Q1 2016.
I repeat my view that the Fed does not need to hike based on fundamentals, but I would not be at all surprised to see the Fed hike in late 2015, in an attempt to convince markets that strong growth and inflation are on their way back. Any such hiking cycle by the Fed would I believe be extremely short-lived and quickly give way to renewed dovishness.

While I think a US recession is merely possible rather than probable, the evidence is growing in my view that a global recession is more probable than possible.

Where is the Fed “put”, and what would such a “put” look like? It is very early in the process and lots will depend on global policy responses and data outcomes, but I am happy to declare my view: the next Fed “put” is not likely until the S&P 500 is trading in the 1500s at least (so more likely to be a Q1 2016 item rather than Q4 2015); and in terms of what the Fed could do, clearly QE4 has to be in the Fed’s toolkit.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Azerbaijan Currency Crashes 50% As Crude Contagion Spreads

December 21, 2015

Azerbaijan Currency Crashes 50% As Crude Contagion Spreads

OPEC blowback continues to ripple around the world. With Russia’s Ruble pushing back towards record lows against the USD, and Kazakhstan’s Tenge having tumbled to record lows, the writing was on the wall for Azerbaijan. As Bloomberg reports, the third-biggest oil producer in the former Soviet Union moved to a free float on Monday and the manat crashed almost 50% instantly to its weakest on record with the second devaluation this year.

First the Russian Ruble…

Then Kazakhstan’s Tenge…

While Azerbaijan’s former Soviet allies Russia and Kazakhstan have moved to floating currency regimes in the past year,the Azeri central bank has questioned whether the country was prepared for a similar shift. Governor Elman Rustamov said there was no need for another devaluation of the manat, according to a televised interview broadcast on Sept. 25.

And now Azerbaijan’s Manat crashes 50%…

As Bloomberg reports, “It looks like Azerbaijan’s authorities are following Kazakhstan’s devaluation path,” said Oleg Kouzmin, a former Russian central bank adviser who works as an economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow. “After devaluing the currency once, some time ago, they concluded that the first move was not enough to tackle all the challenges of a weaker oil price environment.”

Azerbaijan relies on hydrocarbons for more than 90 percent of its exports and the manat has lost almost half its value against the dollar this year, the worst performance of currencies globally.

The Azeri central bank’s reserves were at $6.2 billion at the end of November, down from more than $15 billion a year earlier.

The Russian ruble’s collapse and a 70 percent plunge in the crude price since June last year have ushered in a new era of volatility for Azerbaijan, which is also beset by challenges ranging from declining oil output to a festering conflict with neighboring Armenia.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Sweden Warns Of Dire “Consequences” From Massive Housing Bubble, Heavily Indebted Households

November 25, 2015

Sweden Warns Of Dire “Consequences” From Massive Housing Bubble, Heavily Indebted Households

Late last month, Sweden tripled down on QE, as the Riksbank announced it would expand its asset purchases by SEK65 billion. Or, visually:

The recent history of Swedish monetary policy is viewed by some as a cautionary tale about what can happen when a central bank attempts to normalize policy too “early.” As a reminder, the Riskbank began raising rates in 2010. Reminiscing about the bank’s decision four years later, Paul Krugman blew a gasket on the way to accusing Sweden of being a nefarious lot of job hating heretics hell bent on perpetuating global inequality by enriching creditors at the expense of impoverished debtors.

Of course Krugman needn’t have been so hard on the Riksbank. After all, they reversed course a little over a year later and since then, it’s been nothing but easing as the repo rate fell 35 bps into negative territory.

The problem, as we’ve documented quite extensively, is that Sweden’s adventures in NIRP-dom have done little to boost inflation (to be fair, unemployment has fallen).

For the Paul Krugmans of the world, that’s evidence of a hangover from the series of hikes the Riksbank embarked on beginning in 2010. For anyone who is sane, it’s evidence that, i) unconventional monetary policy is bumping up against the law of diminishing returns , and ii) when everyone is easing, no one gets the benefits.

But while NIRP may not be doing much for inflation, it sure has been effective at creating a rather scary looking housing bubble. Have a look:

We discussed this at length in “Sweden Goes Full Krugman, Gets Massive Housing Bubble.” Here’s what the Riskbank had to say about this after its September meeting:

“Low interest rates contribute to the trends of rising house prices and increasing indebtedness in the Swedish household sector continuing.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The IMF Just Confirmed The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks Is Now In Play

September 5, 2015

The IMF Just Confirmed The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks Is Now In Play

The most important piece of news announced today was also, as usually happens, the most underreported: it had nothing to do with US jobs, with the Fed’s hiking intentions, with China, or even the ongoing “1998-style” carnage in emerging markets. Instead, it was the admission by ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny that what we said about the ECB hitting a supply brick wall, was right. Specifically, earlier today Bloomberg quoted the Austrian central banker that the ECB asset-backed securities purchasing program “hasn’t been as successful as we’d hoped.”

Why? “It’s simply because they are running out. There are simply too few of these structured products out there.”

So six months later, the ECB begrudgingly admitted what we said in March 2015, in “A Complete Preview Of Q€ — And Why It Will Fail“, was correct. Namely this:

… the ECB is monetizing over half of gross issuance (and more than twice net issuance) and a cool 12% of eurozone GDP. The latter figure there could easily rise if GDP contracts and Q€ is expanded, a scenario which should certainly not be ruled out given Europe’s fragile economic situation and expectations for the ECB to remain accommodative for the foreseeable future. In fact, the market is already talking about the likelihood that the program will be expanded/extended.

… while we hate to beat a dead horse, the sheer lunacy of a bond buying program that is only constrained by the fact that there simply aren’t enough bonds to buy, cannot possibly be overstated.

Among the program’s many inherent absurdities are the glaring disparity between the size of the program and the amount of net euro fixed income issuance and the more nuanced fact that the effects of previous ECB easing efforts virtually ensure that Q€ cannot succeed.

(Actually, we said all of the above first all the way back in 2012, but that’s irrelevant.)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It’s Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington

August 27, 2015

It’s Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington

On Tuesday evening, we asked what would happen if emerging markets joined China in dumping US Treasurys. For months we’ve documented the PBoC’s liquidation of its vast stack of US paper. Back in July for instance, we noted that China had dumped a record $143 billion in US Treasurys in three months via Belgium,leaving Goldman speechless for once.

We followed all of this up this week by noting that thanks to the new FX regime (which, in theory anyway, should have required less intervention), China has likely sold somewhere on the order of $100 billion in US Treasurys in the past two weeks alone in open FX ops to steady the yuan. Put simply, as part of China’s devaluation and subsequent attempts to contain said devaluation, China has been purging an epic amount of Treasurys.

But even as the cat was out of the bag for Zero Hedge readers and even as, to mix colorful escape metaphors, the genie has been out of the bottle since mid-August for China which, thanks to a steadfast refusal to just float the yuan and be done with it, will have to continue selling USTs by the hundreds of billions, the world at large was slow to wake up to what China’s FX interventions actually implied until Wednesday when two things happened: i) Bloomberg, citing fixed income desks in New York, noted “substantial selling pressure” in long-term USTs emanating from somebody in the “Far East”, and ii) Bill Gross asked, in a tweet, if China was selling Treasurys.

Sure enough, on Thursday we got confirmation of what we’ve been detailing exhaustively for months. Here’s Bloomberg:

China has cut its holdings of U.S. Treasuries this month to raise dollars needed to support the yuan in the wake of a shock devaluation two weeks ago, according to people familiar with the matter.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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