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“Minsky Moments Almost Certainly Await”: Nomura Fears ‘Collateral’ Damage From The QE-to-QT Transition
“Minsky Moments Almost Certainly Await”: Nomura Fears ‘Collateral’ Damage From The QE-to-QT Transition “Minsky Moments” almost certainly await, warns Nomura’s Charlie McElligott in his latest note as he reflects on a massive week ahead for markets. With Powell testimony and bunches of Fed speakers, along with US economic releases headlined by the market’s most important datapoint in the […]
Archegos Implosion is a Sign of Massive Stock Market Leverage that Stays Hidden until it Blows Up and Hits the Banks
Archegos Implosion is a Sign of Massive Stock Market Leverage that Stays Hidden until it Blows Up and Hits the Banks Banks, as prime brokers and counterparties to the hedge fund, are eating multi-billion-dollar losses as they try to get out of these secretive stock derivative positions. The implosion of an undisclosed hedge fund, now […]
“Calamity”: Nomura Warns Or VaR Shock Adding To “Untradeable Markets”
“Calamity”: Nomura Warns Or VaR Shock Adding To “Untradeable Markets” Over the weekend, in our initial response to the shocking Saudi “scorched earth” price war declaration, we said that “once Brent craters on Monday to the mid-$30s or lower, the accompanying implosion in 10Y yields could make the record plunge in yields seen on Friday a dress […]
Nomura Exposes The Fed’s Imminent “Mega-Shift” – Beware Quad Witch & “Untethered” Markets
Nomura Exposes The Fed’s Imminent “Mega-Shift” – Beware Quad Witch & “Untethered” Markets “This is a big deal,” warns Nomura’s Charlie McElligott – a man not known for hyperbole – as he reflects on the sudden, dramatic changes occurring in the very deepest levels of plumbing of the world’s supposed most-liquid markets. Another massively over-subscribed repo […]
Nomura: The Fed Will Go Large; Expect A 50bp Cut Out Of The Gate… And Soon
Nomura: The Fed Will Go Large; Expect A 50bp Cut Out Of The Gate… And Soon it may seem morbid, if not grotesque, to discuss the Fed cutting rates on the day when the S&P just hit a new all time high, but as a result of the previously discussed US bank liquidity and dollar shortage thesis, now also […]
The Market Is “Pulling Forward End-Of-Cycle Timing” – Nomura Warns of Shift To “Risk-Negative Mindset”
The Market Is “Pulling Forward End-Of-Cycle Timing” – Nomura Warns of Shift To “Risk-Negative Mindset” With global investors desperately searching for a narrative to explain “what changed” as the calendar flipped a page to exuberant September to awful October, we suspect the realization of the fact that global central bank balance sheets are contracting and […]
Has China Finally Lifted its Thumb off of Gold?
Has China Finally Lifted its Thumb off of Gold? There’s a lot of talk about the Yuan price of gold falling out of a price suppression channel. Both Zerohedge and Nomura have weighed in on this. The Yuan price of gold surged overnight to above CNY 8500 per ounce which is a major breakdown But […]
Shocktober’s Not Over – McElligott Sees More “Rolling Minsky Moments” As “Pseudo-Stability” Unravels
Shocktober’s Not Over – McElligott Sees More “Rolling Minsky Moments” As “Pseudo-Stability” Unravels Just before last week’s interest-rate driven market selloff entered its most acute phase, we cited CTA positioning data from Nomura showing that systematic funds had not yet begun the painful process of deleveraging as certain “triggers” had not yet been met. But […]
Kuroda Suggests “No Limit” To More NIRP Measures To Stall Japanese Bond Yields, Stocks, USDJPY Plunge
Kuroda Suggests “No Limit” To More NIRP Measures To Stall Japanese Bond Yields, Stocks, USDJPY Plunge With Nikkei 225 down 800 points from post-NIRP highs and USDJPY having almost roundtripped, there is little wonder that Japanese government bond yields are collapsing to imply considerably deeper NIRP to come. With 10Y JGBs on the verge of a […]
Citi On Why Negative Rates Are Like Potato Chips: “No One Can Have Just One”
Citi On Why Negative Rates Are Like Potato Chips: “No One Can Have Just One” Now that Japan has let the negative rates genie out of the bottle, or as DB put it, ‘opened the Pandora’s Box‘ and in the process unleashed the latest global “silent bank run” and capital flight, prepare to hear a […]
Bob Janjuah Warns The Bubble Implosion Can’t Be “Fixed” This Time
Bob Janjuah Warns The Bubble Implosion Can’t Be “Fixed” This Time Having correctly foreseen in September that “China’s devaluations are not over yet” it appears Nomura’s infamous ‘bear’ Bob Janjuah has also nailed The Fed’s subsequent actions (hiking rates into a fundamentally weakening economy in a desperate bid to “convince markets that strong growth and inflation are on their […]
Azerbaijan Currency Crashes 50% As Crude Contagion Spreads
Azerbaijan Currency Crashes 50% As Crude Contagion Spreads OPEC blowback continues to ripple around the world. With Russia’s Ruble pushing back towards record lows against the USD, and Kazakhstan’s Tenge having tumbled to record lows, the writing was on the wall for Azerbaijan. As Bloomberg reports, the third-biggest oil producer in the former Soviet Union moved to a free […]
Sweden Warns Of Dire “Consequences” From Massive Housing Bubble, Heavily Indebted Households
Sweden Warns Of Dire “Consequences” From Massive Housing Bubble, Heavily Indebted Households Late last month, Sweden tripled down on QE, as the Riksbank announced it would expand its asset purchases by SEK65 billion. Or, visually: The recent history of Swedish monetary policy is viewed by some as a cautionary tale about what can happen when a […]
The IMF Just Confirmed The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks Is Now In Play
The IMF Just Confirmed The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks Is Now In Play The most important piece of news announced today was also, as usually happens, the most underreported: it had nothing to do with US jobs, with the Fed’s hiking intentions, with China, or even the ongoing “1998-style” carnage in emerging markets. Instead, […]
It’s Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington
It’s Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington On Tuesday evening, we asked what would happen if emerging markets joined China in dumping US Treasurys. For months we’ve documented the PBoC’s liquidation of its vast stack of US paper. Back in July for instance, we noted that China had dumped a record $143 billion in US […]
