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After yesterday’s unprecedented revocation of an over 50-year old constitutional article which gave Indian-administered Kashmir special autonomous status, Pakistan’s army has shot back in provocative statements saying it will “go to any extent” to support Kashmiris amid an Indian military crackdown. “Pakistan Army firmly stands by the Kashmiris in their just struggle to the very end,” said General Qamar Javed Bajwa after meeting with top commanders over the crisis.

“We are prepared and shall go to any extent to fulfill our obligations in this regard,” he added, without specifying what form this might take. At the same time Pakistan’s foreign minister informed the United Nations it is prepared to act in response to the “critical situation”.

*Indian soldiers recently patroling the Jammu-Srinigar National Highway, via the AFP.*

The now voided Article 370 is legally and historically what assured a high degree autonomy for the Indian administered Muslim-majority state, enshrined in the constitution, which inhabitants there see as justifying remaining part of India. The Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata leadership in New Delhi, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, revoked the Jammu and Kashmir’s (J&K) status quo ability and rights to maintain their own local governance on Monday.

We noted this could put India and Pakistan on a direct collision course for war, following reports of weekend shelling in the contested region by Indian forces — indeed CNN has reported Indian-controlled Kashmir is on “lockdown” with phone lines and internet cut, as tens of thousands of Indian troops have been freshly deployed, and with key prominent local politicians under house arrest.

Videos out of Jammu posted to social media showed uniformed Indian soldiers filing through the streets in densely populated towns immediately following the revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia-India-China will be the big G20 hit

June 29, 2019

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) hug during their meeting before a session of the Heads of State Council of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Photo: AFP / Grigory Sysoev / Sputnik

Russia-India-China will be the big G20 hit

India under Modi, an essential cog in US strategy, gets cozy with China and Russia

It all started with the Vladimir Putin–Xi Jinping summit in Moscow on June 5. Far from a mere bilateral, this meeting upgraded the Eurasian integration process to another level. The Russian and Chinese presidents discussed everything from the progressive interconnection of the New Silk Roads with the Eurasia Economic Union, especially in and around Central Asia, to their concerted strategy for the Korean Peninsula.

A particular theme stood out: They discussed how the connecting role of Persia in the Ancient Silk Road is about to be replicated by Iran in the New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). And that is non-negotiable. Especially after the Russia-China strategic partnership, less than a month before the Moscow summit, offered explicit support for Tehran signaling that regime change simply won’t be accepted, diplomatic sources say.

Putin and Xi solidified the roadmap at the St Petersburg Economic Forum. And the Greater Eurasia interconnection continued to be woven immediately after at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Bishkek, with two essential interlocutors: India, a fellow BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and SCO member, and SCO observer Iran.

At the SCO summit we had Putin, Xi, Narendra Modi, Imran Khan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani sitting at the same table. Hanging over the proceedings, like concentric Damocles swords, were the US-China trade war, sanctions on Russia, and the explosive situation in the Persian Gulf.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Response to US global bullying: Iran, India ditch dollar to continue trading oil despite sanctions

January 15, 2019

Response to US global bullying: Iran, India ditch dollar to continue trading oil despite sanctions

In an effort to circumvent US-imposed sanctions, India and Iran have reportedly ditched the US dollar and are trading oil in rupees. The reason becomes clear after considering the dynamics at play in the region.

In mid-February last year, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani visited India, and the two countries signed nine agreements signalling a strengthening of ties. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to celebrate the growing relationship, stating that it was “a matter of great pleasure” for India that an Iranian president came to India “after a gap of 10 years.”

Fast-forward a few months later, and then-UN ambassador Nikki Haley was bluntly telling India that they should rethink their relationship with Tehran.

Donald Trump’s decision to rip up the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) last year, also known as the Iranian nuclear accord, was a particularly significant blow to Iran-India relations. At the time the JCPOA was formulated, Indian officials believed the deal to be the “best deal available.” After the JCPOA’s implementation in 2016, exports of Iranian oil to India increased by more than 110 percent.

Maybe the issue isn’t always that Washington wants to contain its rivals in the Middle East and Asia, but perhaps there is a chance that it also wants to keep a lid on its so-called allies as well. Right now, India is the third largest oil consumer in the world, and is expected to become the largest by the year 2040. As its domestic reserves are not meeting the needs of its rapidly expanding economy, India has been importing 80 percent of its oil supply from overseas, including and especially Iran.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Modi’s Demonetization Called “Colossal Failure That Ruined Economy” As India GDP Growth Slumps To 2-Year Lows

September 3, 2017

Modi’s Demonetization Called “Colossal Failure That Ruined Economy” As India GDP Growth Slumps To 2-Year Lows

India’s embattled Prime Minister Narendra Modi faced a double whammy of abuse this week as his nation’s economic growth collapsed to its weakest since Q1 2014 and India’s Central Bank released a report on Modi’s extraordinary “demonitization” plan last year showing that 99 per cent of the high denomination banknotes cancelled last year were deposited or exchanged for new currency, crushing Modi’s lie that his contentious ‘war on cash’ would wipe out huge amounts of so-called ‘black money’.

When Modi announced in November that Rs1,000 ($16) and Rs500 notes would no longer be legal tender, he suggested that corrupt officials, businessmen and criminals — popularly believed to hoard large amounts of illicit cash — would be stuck with “worthless pieces of paper”. At the time, government officials had suggested that as much as one-third of India’s outstanding currency would be purged from the economy – as the wealthy abandoned or destroyed it, rather than admit to their hoardings – reducing central bank liabilities and creating a government windfall.

Since he unleashed his cunning plan, India’s GDP growth has slowed dramatically.

After India’s Composite PMI collapsed, India’s Q2 GDP growth slowed to 5.7% – its weakest since Q2 2014…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

India: Why its Attempt to Go Digital Will Fail

May 22, 2017

India: Why its Attempt to Go Digital Will Fail

India Reverts to its Irrational, Tribal Normal (Part XIII)

Over the three years in which Narendra Modi has been in power, his support base has continued to increase. Indian institutions — including the courts and the media — now toe his line.

The President, otherwise a ceremonial rubber-stamp post, but the last obstacle keeping Modi from implementing a police state, comes up for re-election by a vote of the legislative houses in July 2017. No one should be surprised if a Hindu fanatic is made the next President. India is rapidly entering a new phase.

Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi on the cover of an Indian magazine in 2002, when he was the Chief Minister of the Indian province of Gujarat. During his reign in Gujarat, a civil-war like situation erupted, which seriously segregated the province’s society. It brought Hindus into a state of trance and excitement and provided them with the fake-security of the collective. Alas, wealth and civilization are created by an intense focus on value-addition, not from the short-term escapist excitement of mobs expressed through riots and rape. Destructive endeavors are a major vulnerability of poor societies, given their irrationality and lack of foresight and planning, and their short-sighted focus on high time-preference, pleasure-centered activities.

Modi, a major world-traveler, who has run around quite a bit to please foreign governments and win the support of identity-lacking non-resident Indians, is no longer going abroad with the same abandon. Historically and even today, whatever gained approval in the West is what Indians have looked up to.

But Modi has matured. Modi has directed the attention of Indians to nationalism, Hindutava (fanatic Hinduism), the army, the flag, the anthem, and other superficial collective “causes” not underpinned any values or wealth-creating, civilization-producing objectives.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

India – On a Downward Spiral

January 23, 2017

India – On a Downward Spiral

India’s Currency Ban – Part IX

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced on 8^th November 2016 that Rs 500 (~$7.50) and Rs 1,000 (~$15) banknotes would no longer be legal tender.

Sadly, the despondency visible in the old man’s facial expression has become a widespread phenomenon since the currency ban, particularly among India’s poor Photo credit: Aayush Goel

Here are links to Part-I, Part-II, Part-III, Part-IV, Part-V, Part-VI, Part-VII, and Part-VIII, which not only provide updates on the demonetization saga, but explore and dissect India’s culture and why in this country of 1.34 billion — more than 1 out of every 6 human beings on the planet — so many exist in wretched poverty in this modern age, in an insect-like existence.

People storming a bank. If this is not an insect-like existence, what is it?

Oppression, exploitation, extreme stress, and the resulting millions of untimely deaths every year possibly make the story of the post-independent India one of the biggest crimes against humanity. Alas,it is getting worse.

As I explored in earlier updates, Indian institutions were designed to be run by the British. With them no longer at the helm, these institutions have mutated over the last 70 years to accommodate the underlying irrationality, tribalism, and superstitions of India. They have slowly but surely crumbled away, decaying and becoming degraded.

Indian democracy today is simply mob rule, its educational system little but propaganda, and its citizens are mere cogs in the service of the State. Indian institutions, including the Supreme Court, are far from independent. They are yes-men to India’s prime minister, the demagogue Narendra Modi.

India never properly assimilated the concepts of reason, liberty or individuality. When these concepts were offered by Europeans free of cost on a plate, Indians completely failed to take notice them. All they saw and copied was the facade of western lifestyle: clothing, music, cinema, food, etc.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Well-Kept Open Secret: Washington Is Behind India’s Brutal Experiment of Abolishing Most Cash

January 13, 2017

A Well-Kept Open Secret: Washington Is Behind India’s Brutal Experiment of Abolishing Most Cash

By Norbert Haering, a German financial journalist, blogger and PhD economist, who received the 2007 getAbstract Best Business Book award and the 2014 prize of the German Keynes Society for economic journalism. His best-selling book (in German) “The abolition of cash and the consequences” was published in 2016. Originally published on norberthaering.de (http://norberthaering.de/en/home/27-german/news/745-washington-s-role-in-india). Republished with permission of the author.

In early November, without warning, the Indian government declared the two largest denomination bills invalid, abolishing over 80 percent of circulating cash by value. Amidst all the commotion and outrage this caused, nobody seems to have taken note of the decisive role that Washington played in this. That is surprising, as Washington’s role has been disguised only very superficially.

U.S. President Barack Obama has declared the strategic partnership with India a priority of his foreign policy. China needs to be reined in. In the context of this partnership, the US government’s development agency USAID has negotiated cooperation agreements with the Indian ministry of finance. One of these has the declared goal to push back the use of cash in favor of digital payments in India and globally.

On November 8, Indian prime minster Narendra Modi announced that the two largest denominations of banknotes could not be used for payments any more with almost immediate effect. Owners could only recoup their value by putting them into a bank account before the short grace period expired at year end, which many people and businesses did not manage to do, due to long lines in front of banks. The amount of cash that banks were allowed to pay out to individual customers was severely restricted. Almost half of Indians have no bank account and many do not even have a bank nearby.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Modi’s Great Leap Forward

January 2, 2017

Modi’s Great Leap Forward

India’s Currency Ban – Part VIII

India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, announced on 8th November 2016 that Rs 500 (~$7.50) and Rs 1,000 (~$15) banknotes would no longer be legal tender. Linked are Part-I, Part-II, Part-III, Part-IV, Part-V, Part-VI and Part-VII, which provide updates on the demonetization saga and how Modi is acting as a catalyst to hasten the rapid degradation of India and what remains of its institutions.

India’s Pride and Joy

Indians are celebrating that their economy has surpassed that of India’s former colonial master, the UK.

So-called educated Indians have latched on to the above visual, with full support of the Indian government. It has been shared far and wide in the national media. When you remind them that India’s population is twenty-one times that of the UK and on top of that, the British pound has taken a huge pounding because of Brexit and associated fear in the financial markets, expect to be ignored. You will be seen as anti-Indian.

Given the underlying irrationality and tribalism of India (read earlier updates for more on this), selected numbers are used to rationalize feelings and emotions. You see this everywhere in India: Science — very ironically — is used as a tool to rationalize superstitions and irrationalities.

Who needs reality when we can exist in illusions? But even this illusion—that India has superseded the UK — might disappear once the reality of India’s demonetization sinks in and the rupee falls, which it likely will once the international media recognize that Modi went for demonetization not to reduce corruption, but to transform India into a police state.

Modi’s interest was to increase tax collection, for the sake of tax collection, an approach in which rulers start to see themselves as all that matters, where citizens come to be seen as mere cogs in the service of the state.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

India’s Prime Minister Has Singlehandedly Crushed the Economy with His Reckless Cash Ban

December 27, 2016

India’s Prime Minister Has Singlehandedly Crushed the Economy with His Reckless Cash Ban

Today’s piece should be seen as a bit of a followup to yesterday’s post, India’s Demonetization Debacle Highlights the Dangers of Monetary Monopoly. While yesterday’s piece was more philosophical/strategic in nature, today’s zeroes in on some of the devastating real world impacts of Narendra Modi’s insane and inhumane cash ban. It’s hard to overstate the damage this policy has done to India’s economy. Modi is quickly solidifying his place as one of monetary history’s biggest idiots.

First, let’s take a look at the destructive impact the move has had on India’s massive small businesses community. The Washington Postreports:

NOIDA, India — Over the past two years, this suburb of New Delhi mushroomed into a flourishing enclave of small cellphone manufacturers, attracting tens of thousands of workers from the countryside. Noida, known as the “handset hub,” was touted as a showcase for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pet “Make in India” initiative.

Then on Nov. 8, Modi’s government took a step that has jolted the bustling industrial quarter. It scrapped high-denomination currency, with a view, officials said, to curbing illicit wealth and the financing of terrorism. But the cash shortage triggered by the move has also curbed legitimate small enterprises. Many of Noida’s manufacturing units have slashed production by nearly half, and more than a quarter of the workers have gone back to their villages.

“It was a booming sunrise industry before November 8th. Not now,” said Vipin Malhan, president of the Noida Entrepreneurs Association, who also runs a business that makes cellphone accessories here. “Many small factories and assembling units, which used to work round-the-clock, with three shifts, have scaled down to just a single shift. We are all in shock now. One word that businesses dread is ‘uncertainty.’ The government has thrown that at us.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“There’s Chaos Everywhere” – Indians Angry As ATMs Run Dry After Cash Ban

November 12, 2016

“There’s Chaos Everywhere” – Indians Angry As ATMs Run Dry After Cash Ban

The blowback from the world’s latest strike in the war on cash is unraveling fast in India. This week’s decision by PM Modi to ban some high-denomination banknotes (on the premise of fighting corruption) has left “chaos everywhere” according to one official who accused the prmeier of wreaking havoc on the poorest Indians. As Reuters reports, nearly half of India’s 202,000 ATMs were shut on Friday and those that operated quickly ran out of the new notes as scores of people descended upon them.

Bloomberg’s somewhat calming perspective on the events taking place in India…

India’s banks have been caught out by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s unexpected and widely-praised announcement late on Tuesday of the withdrawal of 500-rupee and 1,000-rupee notes,part of a crackdown on tax evasion and the underground economy. Jaitley urged people not to rush to banks immediately and wait for a few days and to conduct financial transactions using electronic transfers, cheques and credit and debit cards.

“A big regret is that people are getting inconvenienced, but currency replacement of this magnitude will cause some problems,” said Jaitley. “There are long, but orderly queues. Such a big currency replacement can’t be done overnight.”

Indians rushed to deposit 478.68 billion rupees ($7.1 billion) of cash at State Bank of India after the government’s surprise move to abolish high-denomination banknotes, as customers queued for hours to deposit or exchange the old bills and ATMs ran dry.

Are very different from the more frantic scenes described on social media and reported on by Reuters…

Anger intensified in India on Saturday as banks struggled to dispense cash following the government’s decision to withdraw large denomination notes in an attempt to uncover billions of dollars in undeclared wealth.

Tempers frayed as hundreds of thousands of people queued for hours outside banks for a third day to swap 500 and 1,000 rupee bank notes after the notes were abolished earlier in the week.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold Price Skyrockets in India after Currency Ban

November 12, 2016

Gold Price Skyrockets in India after Currency Ban

India’s Government Makes Banknotes Worthless by Decree Overnight

As I write this in the morning of 9th November 2016, there are huge lines forming outside gold shops in India — and gold traded heavily until late into the night yesterday. Depending on who you ask, the retail price of gold has gone up between 15% and 20% within the last 10 hours.

img-20161109-wa0003 Gold quotes in India – gold traded for as much as Rs 49,000 per 10 grams or US$ 2,294 per ounce

At some places, it was sold for as much as US$ 2,294 per ounce. That is, if you can actually find physical gold — gold inventories at stores are rapidly depleting. All of this happened well before the international price started to move up because of the election results coming out of the US.

Last night (8th November 2016), India’s government banned the use of Rs 500 (~$7.50) and Rs 1,000 ($15) banknotes. This pretty much made most currency-in-use illegal. Banks and ATMs are closed today. The government believes that doing this will help eradicate corruption and push counterfeit money out of circulation. According to the Indian government, the counterfeit money tends to come from Pakistan and helps finance terrorism.

My first instinct when I heard the news was that people would be on the streets this morning. There would be riots and the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, would be unceremoniously thrown out. Despite being a huge critic of him, I thought he at least had the spine to take bold action, however erroneous it might have been.

I am sometimes too optimistic about India and expect too much goodness from Indians. And I was wrong.

In the morning no opposition against the government was in sight. But there was some animosity detectable between people.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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