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Gold & Oil: Understanding Rather than Fearing Change

Gold & Oil: Understanding Rather than Fearing Change

There is much legitimate (as well as dramatic) talk about the failing US, its debased currency and its identity-fractured/inflation-taxed middle-class which has been increasingly described more aptly as the working poor.

The End, or Just Change?

But is America coming to an end? Will the USD lose its world reserve currency status? Will the greenback disappear? Will gold or BTC save us from all that is breaking before our media-clouded eyes and increasingly centralized state?

Nope.

America is slipping, but not ending.

The USD is being repriced not replaced.

The greenback is still a key spending, liquidity and FX currency. But it’s no longer the premier savings asset or store of value.

Gold (now a Tier-1 asset btw…) will continue to store value (i.e., preserve wealth) better than any fiat money; and BTC will certainly make convexity headlines in the future.

And yes, we all know the Fourth Estate died long before Don Lemon or Chris Cuomo stained our screens or insulted our collective IQ.

And as for centralization, it’s not coming, but already here.

Be Prepared Rather than Emotional

So, yes there is tremendous reason for informed and genuine concern, but rather than wait for the end of the world, it would be far more effective to logically prepare for a changing world.

Rather than debate left or right, black or white, straight or trans, safe or effective, smart (Barrington Resolution) or stupid (Fauci), we’d likely serve our individual and collective minds far better by embracing the logical and tabling the emotional.

Toward that end, we’d be equally better off relying on our own judgement rather than that of the children making domestic, monetary or foreign policy decisions from DC to Belgium…

Logically speaking, the USD (and US of A) is changing.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why Is Gold Rising Now, Where Is It Headed Tomorrow?

Why Is Gold Rising Now, Where Is It Headed Tomorrow?

Needless to say, we at VON GREYERZ spend a good deal of time thinking about, well… gold.

The Complex, the Simple, the Math and the History

Year after year, and week after week, there is always a new way to examine gold price moves and decipher the obvious and not-so obvious forces which flow behind, ahead, above and below its monetary and, yes, metallic, move through time.

Today, deep into the early decades of the 21st century, and well over 100 years since the not-so immaculate conception of the Fed in the early 20th century, we could (and have) spent pages and paragraphs on key turning points in the rigged to fail history of paper vs. metallic money.

At times, this effort can and has seemed intense and even complex, with all kinds of historical facts, mathematical comparisons and “big events.”

The turning points of gold’s relationship with fiat currencies, and its role in preserving wealth, for example, are known to an admitted minority—as only about 0.5% of global financial allocations include physical gold.

Gold’s Language

Yet the need, role and direction of gold is fairly blunt, at least for those with eyes to see and ears to hear.

History, for example, has some clear things to say about paper money.

And so does gold.

From the Bretton Woods promises of 1944 and Nixon’s open and subsequent welch on the same in 1971 to the 2001 outsourcing of the American dream to China under Clinton (and the WTO) or the recent weaponization of USD in Q1 of 2022, gold has been watching, acting and speaking to those who understand her language.

The Big Question: Why Is Gold Rising Now?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The US Is Living on Borrowed Time

The US Is Living on Borrowed Time

In late December, I published a final report on the themes of 2023 while looking ahead at their implications for the year to come.

I repeated my claim that debt markets and debt levels made the future of Fed policies, currency moves, rate markets and gold’s endgame fairly clear to see.

Of course, as facts change, opinions change as well.

But the facts are only worsening, which means my opinions in late 2023 are only growing stronger as we conclude the first month of 2024.

Then as now, the debt-soaked US is tilting ever more toward policies which will weaken its currency, wound its middleclass and reward its false idols (and false markets) with even greater desperation.

In particular, some recent facts below are emerging which further support my otherwise sad conviction that the American economy (not to be confused with its Fed-supported stock exchanges) is literally living on borrowed time.

The Latest Bits of Crazy from the CBO

Almost a year ago to date, I was shaking my head and rubbing my eyes as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) announced a staggering $422B Federal budget deficit for Q1 2023.

Now that’s a lot of borrowing in a short amount of time…

For some strange reason, this bothered me in early 2023, as I was still under this odd impression that debt, and hence deficits, actually mattered.

Fast forward to January 2024, and that same CBO has just announced a $509B Federal budget deficit for Q1 2024.

Folks, that adds up to annual deficit run rate of $2.2T.

Please: Re-read that last line again.

Do the Math: DC is Getting Even Dumber

…click on the above link to read the rest…

More Golden (and Black-Gold) Proof: The Dollar is Totally Screwed

More Golden (and Black-Gold) Proof: The Dollar is Totally Screwed

Ever since day-one of the predictably disastrous and politically myopic insanity of weaponizing the world reserve currency against a major power like Russia, we warned that the USD had reached an historical turning point of slow demise and increasing de-dollarization.

We also warned that this would be a gradual process rather than over-night headline, much like the slow but steady death of the USD’s purchasing power since Nixon left the gold standard in 1971:

But as we’ll discover below, this gyrating process is happening even faster than we could have imagined, and all of this bodes profoundly well for physical gold, yet not so well for the USD.

Bad Actors, Bad Policies & Predictable Patterns

Regardless of what the media-mislead world thinks of Putin, weaponizing the USD was a foreseeable disaster which, naturally, none of DC’s worst-and-dimmest, could fully grasp.

This is because chest-puffing but math-illiterate neocons pushing policy from the Pentagon were pulling the increasingly visible strings of a Biden puppet at the White House.

In short, the dark state of which Mike Lofgren warned is not only dark, but dangerously dumb.

These political opportunists have forgotten that military power is not as wise as financial strength, which is why broke (and increasingly centralized nations) inevitably lead their country toward a state of permanent ruin preceded by cycles of war and currency-destroying inflation.

Sound familiar?

Despite no training in economics, Ernest Hemingway, who witnessed two world wars, saw this pattern clearly:

We also found “Biden’s” sanctions particularly comical, given that his former boss clearly understood the dangers of such a policy for the USD as far back as 2015:

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Hope Dies, Gold Rises

Hope Dies, Gold Rises

The primary stages of grief include: Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and finally, acceptance.

When it comes to grieving over the slow demise of the American economy, sovereign IOU/USD and the absolute failure of our “re-election-only-focused” policy makers, these stages of grief are easy to see yet easier to ignore.

But false hope won’t help us.

Denying a Recession

With the vast majority of sectors that make up the U.S. economy evidencing three months of negative GDP growth while a laundry list of leading homebuilder indicators (housing starts and prospective buyers) drops into recessionary red, I keep wondering when the recession debate will finally end.

Walmart is worrying, Jamie Dimon is worrying, commercial real estate delinquencies are rising and IPO markets are all but dead on arrival.

But that’s just the latest hard data.

One can cite everything from the Conference Board of Leading Indicators, negative M2 growth, yield curve movements and a drying repo market to make it empirically clear that the US is not heading for recession but has already been in one for nearly a year.

In fact, if we were to define a Depression by growth rates of inflation-adjusted GDP per capita, then factually speaking, we have also been in a quantifiable depression for the last 16 years.

Such data, of course, is depressing, but are we all still hoping for kinder facts or a political and monetary Santa Claus to cure our denial?

I for one favor preparation over denial.

Then Comes the Anger

Citizens storming the Capital, or grabbing guitars and singing “I’m taxed to no end and my dollar aint $#!T” are just the first signs of  the anger stage.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Debt, Currency Debasement & War—The Timeless Pillars of Failure

Debt, Currency Debasement & War—The Timeless Pillars of Failure

Below, we follow the breadcrumbs of simple math and bond market signals toward an oft-repeated pattern of how once-great nations become, well…not so great any more.

Debt Destroys Nations

Debt, once it passes the Rubicon from extreme to just plain madness, destroys nations.

Just ask the former Spanish, British or Dutch empires. Or ask the inter-war Germans. Ask the Yugoslavians of the 1990’s or ask a historian of Ancient Rome or a merchant in modern Argentina.

It’s all pretty much the same story, just different a different stage or curtain call.

Like Hemingway’s description of poverty, the process begins slowly at first, and then all at once.

Part of this process involves currency debasement needed to pay down more desperate issuance of IOUs, a process evidenced by rising rather than “transitory” inflation.

Thereafter, comes increased social unrest, and hence increased centralization from the political left or right in the name of “what’s best for us.”

Sound familiar?

Centralization—The Last, Failed Act

Centralization never works in the long run, but that has never stopped opportunists from trying.

Just look at our central bankers.

In a centralized rather than free market, the very name “central bank” should be a dead give-away as to their real role and profile.

As private central banks have been slowly increasing their hidden power and control over national markets and hence national welfare, the very notion of free price discovery in bonds, and indirectly in stocks, is now all but an extinct financial creature in the neo-feudalism which long ago replaced genuine capitalism.

How the Central Game is Played—From Temporary Prosperity to Permanent Ruin

When central banks like the Fed repress rates and print gobs and gobs of money, bonds are artificially supported, which means their prices go up and their yields are compressed.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Rising GDP + Rising Yields = A MAJOR Sign of “Uh-Oh”

Rising GDP + Rising Yields = A MAJOR Sign of “Uh-Oh”

Have you heard the good news?

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates a 5.9% growth in real GDP for Q3 2023. In nominal terms, we can even boast of an 8.9% surge.

What fantastic news! Growth! Productivity!

This must mean we can all breath a collective sigh of relief as Powell continues his valiant war against inflation as GDP rises, right?

I can almost hear the champagne bottles popping from the Eccles Building to the Bezos-owned Washington Post.

The financial wizards have saved us once again, right?

Wrong.

Oh, so, so, so, so WRONG.

Why?

Debt-Driven Growth is Not Growth, but a Slow Death Trap

As usual, the answer lies in math, history and, of course, THE BOND MARKET.

For years and years, I have tried to make one point (and indicator) almost reflexively clear, namely: The Bond Market Is the Thing.

This is because the bond market reflects debt forces, the most cancerous of all market killers once they metastasize from the acceptable to the fantastical, and the cheap to the unaffordable.

Today, we stare upon the greatest national and global debt bubble in history.

And the cost of that debt is getting higher, not lower.

This should be the key theme of every conversation, but instead, our citizens are arguing over gender neutral bathrooms and exciting politicos (opportunists) scurrying for power like donkeys fighting for hay.

Far better, in my opinion, if the people understood boring things like sovereign bonds

In particular, they just need to consider and understand yields on Uncle Sam’s IOU (with particular emphasis on his 10-Year UST), which tells us the market’s measurement of the cost of debt.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Modern Currency Policy: Nations Compete, Citizens Suffer

Modern Currency Policy: Nations Compete, Citizens Suffer

Below we consider how modern currency policy may not be so good for, well, the people…

This is why gold inevitably enters the conversation, for unlike policy makers, this old pet rock garners more trust.

Gold, of course, loves chaos, tanking currencies and cornered, debt-soaked nations, the numbers of which rise with each passing day.

We see currency debasement as mathematically and historically inevitable, though we have no clue (no one really does) as to the precise date, trigger or time the already teetering fiat money systems fall over the global debt cliff.

We only know that the $300+T cliff is here, and that nations are racing toward it at historical speed, with equally historical consequences.

Physical gold holders, however, enjoy a certain and calm advantage: They don’t need to be precise timers; simply patient owners.

As for more signs of the move toward weakening currencies in general, and a weakening USD in particular, let’s look at some more history and current facts.

Hot vs. Financial Wars: Today’s Evidence, Tomorrow’s Polices

As headlines change with daily Western biases regarding the military war in Ukraine, America’s financial war with the East (i.e., China) will continue into the next generation.

It’s no secret to me, or many others, moreover, that the war in the Ukraine is a US proxy war against Russia, in which Ukraine (and its citizens) are merely a convenient battering ram against Putin.

That’s just my opinion, but we’ve seen this “freedom” movie before. Many times, and in many countries, none of which ended with much “freedom” …

But as to financial wars, they too are just an extension of politics by another means, and with the growing waves of de-dollarization rising in speed and height following the predictable ripple of effects of the 2022 sanctions against Russia…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

“No Way Out” for Global Markets Trapped in a Doom Loop of Debt

“No Way Out” for Global Markets Trapped in a Doom Loop of Debt

In this compelling conversation with Wealthion founder, Adam Taggart, Matterhorn Asset Management principal, Matthew Piepenburg, addresses the current and vast range of headline market topics, signals and risks. Inflation, deflation, risk assets, bond stress, cryptos, war, bank failures, CBDC’s rise, trapped policy makers and, of course, the topic of precious metals are all carefully and plainly discussed.

Piepenburg’s broader views on current and future financial conditions are bluntly yet realistically presented as a “no way out” scenario for global economies distorted by cornered central bankers. The bottom line is as simple as it is incontrovertible: The global economy is stuck in a doom loop of debt.

Either central banks raise rates to allegedly “kill inflation” by killing the economy and markets, or they resort to more mouse-click money and kill the currency in your wallet.

Historically, all debt-cornered nations spur collapsing markets followed by collapsing currencies and inflation-driven social unrest. Leaders of all eras and stripes (left or right) then address this unrest with tighter, more centralized controls over our economies and lives. CBDC is a classic and modern symptom of this timeless pattern.  So is war. The current era will be no exception, as history (from ancient Rome to Chairman Mao, or Napoleon to the rise of fascist leaders of the 1930’s) offers no exception.

Piepenburg tracks the current evolution of this trend in a Federal Reserve that has tightened too fast and too high, breaking everything in its path in one dis-inflationary debt or banking crisis after the next, which are inevitably “solved” via more inflationary and mouse-clicked dollars. End result? Currency debasement, for which gold is one obvious and historical solution rather than “gold bug” apology.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Gold’s Climb Amidst Wisdom’s Decline

Gold’s Climb Amidst Wisdom’s Decline

As the latest headlines from the FTX implosion remind us yet again of a politicized and rigged market riddled with deception, gold’s climb becomes easier to foresee.

But first, a little philosophical musing…

Modern Policy: High Office, Low Wisdom

I have often referred to La Rochefoucauld’s maxim asserting the highest offices are rarely, if ever, held by the highest minds.

Nowhere has this been more apparent than among the halls of the physically impressive yet intellectually vacant Eccles Building on Constitution Ave in Washington DC, where a long string of Fed Chairs have been un-constitutionally distorting free market price discovery for over a century.

The media-ignored levels of open fraud and inflationary currency debasement which passes daily for monetary policy (namely monetizing trillions of sovereign debt with trillions of mouse-clicked Dollars) within the FOMC would be comical if not otherwise so tragic in its crippling ripple effect to the Main Street citizen.

From Greenspan to Powell, we have witnessed example after example of error after error and gaffe after gaffeon everything from mis-defining inflation narratives as “transitory” to re-defining a “recession as non-recessionary.

And all this while the Fed (and its creative writing team at the BLS) simultaneously and deliberately fudges the math on everything from misreported CPI data to artificial U6 employment statistics.

Pondering the Philosophically Nobel Amidst the Administratively Dishonest

To any who have pondered the philosophical pathways (as well as elusive definition) of wisdom (from the ancient Greeks to the pre- and post-modern Europeans, romantic Emersonians, tortured Russians or enlightened Confucians), one common trait of wisdom through time, culture and language is the ability to admit, and then learn from, error–as any man’s journey is one riddled with countless opportunities for teachable error.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Powell: A Breathing Weapon of Mass Destruction

Powell: A Breathing Weapon of Mass Destruction

Below we track how the Powell Fed serves as a contemporary weapon of mass destruction.

Powell’s so-called “war against inflation” will fail, but not before crushing everything from risk asset, precious metal and currency pricing to the USD. As importantly, Powell is accelerating global market shifts while sending a death knell to the ignored middle class.

Let’s dig in.

The Fed: Creators of Their Own Rock & Hard Place

In countless interviews and articles, we have openly declared that after years of drunken monetary driving, the Fed has no good options left and is literally caught between an inflationary rock and a depressionary hard-place.

That is, hawkishly tightening the Fed’s monthly balance sheet (starting in September at $95B) while raising the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) into a recession was, is and will continue to be an open head-shot to the markets and the economy; yet dovishly mouse-clicking more money (i.e., QE) would be fatally inflationary.

Again, rock and a hard place.

What’s remarkable and unknown to most, however, is that the Chicago Fed recently released a white paper during the Jackson Hole meeting which says the very same thing we’ve been warning: Namely, that Powell’s WMD “Volcker 2.0” stance (arrogance/delusion) is only going to make inflation (and stagflation) worse, not better.

To quote the Chicago Fed:

In this pathological situation, monetary tightening would actually spur higher inflation and would spark a pernicious fiscal stagflation, with the inflation rate drifting away from the monetary authority’s target and with GDP growth slowing down considerably. While in the short run, monetary tightening might succeed in partially reducing the business cycle component of inflation, the trend component of inflation would move in the opposite direction as a result of the higher fiscal burden.”

In short, Powell can’t be Volcker.

Why?

Simple.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Handbook for Debt-Soaked Nations: Lie, Print, Inflate & Finger-Point

The Handbook for Debt-Soaked Nations: Lie, Print, Inflate & Finger-Point

Below we consider the classic (and oh-so predictable) tactics of debt-soaked nations facing a showdown (corner) between tanking markets and ripping inflation.

Ultimately, I see a stagflationary end-game in which both occur, but for the near-term, prepare for more inflation, as it’s the option all debt-soaked sovereigns are eternally forced to take.

The Cruelest Month

T.S. Elliot famously described April as the cruelest month, but the recent (and ever-unfolding) events of May seem far crueler.

As we have warned from the very onset of this otherwise avoidable war in Ukraine, the backfiring of Western sanctions against Putin (de-dollarization, inflationary tailwinds and increasingly discredited central banks) were not only plain to foresee, but placed the West in an almost comical (yet tragic) scenario in which nations like Germany find themselves sending weapons to the Ukraine while simultaneously sending Rubles to Putin.

How did the world become so hypocritical, dishonest, cornered and silly?

(Cold) Economic Realism vs. (Empty) Moral Posturing

As George Washington observed in a 1770’s moment of Realpolitik candor: “Nations have no permanent friends nor permanent enemies, just permanent interests.”

Turning to 2022, the self-interested reality of Western reliance on Russian energy has made their front-page virtue signaling a bit less virtuous…

Such cold realism explains why Italian Prime Minster Draghi realistically confessed as early as May 11 that EU companies could pay for Russian gas in Rubles in the very same week German Chancellor Olaf Scholz realistically opposed any immediate halting of oil imports from Russia.

Meanwhile, by May 12, the headlines revealed that Russian oil revenues had increased YoY by 50% despite the Western “boycott.”

An equally realistic Japan, like Germany, will take its time to phase-out its dependence on Russian energy, as it, like Germany, recognizes that an immediate G-7 boycott of Russian oil and gas amounts to little more than an energy suicide pact.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Fear and Inflation — The Timeless Policy Tools of Discredited Systems

Fear and Inflation — The Timeless Policy Tools of Discredited Systems

If you’re wondering why the media, markets and mandates are making less sense despite a constant flow of hard facts contradicting their message, it’s critical to watch what is done rather than said by the policy makers behind the fear and inflation “new normal.”

The Latest Fed-Speak Translation: From “Transitory” to “Persistent” Inflation

To the extent there’s anything exciting about a cornered Jerome Powell, he was at least able to drop some bombshells at his November 30th meeting before Congress, including a truly cutting-edge observation and fear that inflation forces are “more persistent” and that it’s now time to retire the word “transitory” regarding the same.

Well, Jerome, we could have told you that long, long ago, but this, of course, is no shocker…

More Taper-Talk (Distraction)

Perhaps more “exciting” was his not-so-subtle announcement that the Fed plans to begin a discussion at its next meeting to accelerate the Fed taper by a few months.

Hmmm…

Despite the fact that any Fed Taper will in substance be a “non-taper” given backdoor liquidity tricks from the Standing Rep Facility and FIMA swap lines, the optics of such continued taper-talk will be negative for almost all assets save for the USD, the VIX trade, so-called “safe-haven” Treasuries and possibly gold.

Bitcoin’s Troubles

Needless to say, BTC didn’t respond too well, dropping by 20% in the wake of Powell’s double-speak; as of this writing, it rose by 9% in less than 24 hours.

Such dramatic price swings, in our opinion, confirm that cryptos (despite “consolidation” and “adoption” pains) will never be stores of value but rather volatile (and yes, exciting) speculation assets—though we know the crypto circles (who will likely also ignore recent warnings [raised by Jintao Ding] of quantum hacker risks) will strongly disagree.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How Long Can Lies & Control Supplant Reality & Free Markets?

How Long Can Lies & Control Supplant Reality & Free Markets?

The facts of surreal yet broken (and hence increasingly controlled and desperate) financial markets are becoming harder to deny and ignore. Below, we look at the blunt evidence of control rather than the fork-tongued words of policy makers and ask a simple question: How long can lies & control supplant reality?

The Great Disconnect: Tanking Growth vs. Supported Markets

It’s becoming harder to keep up with the increasingly downgraded GDP growth estimations from the Atlanta Fed.

As recently as August, its GDPNow 3q21 estimates for the quarterly percentage change was as high as 6%.

But within a matter of weeks, this otherwise optimistic figure was cut embarrassingly in half.

Last month their GDP forecast sank much further to 0.5%, and as of this writing, it has been downgraded yet again to 0.2%.

GDPNow Real GDP estimates

Needless to say, 6% estimated growth falling to effectively 0% growth is hardly a bullish indicator for the kind of strengthening economic conditions which one might otherwise associate with risk asset prices reaching all-time highs for the same period.

The current ratio of corporate equities to GDP in the U.S. (>200%) is the highest in history.

Markets are at an all-time high according to the buffett indicator

This growing yet shameful disconnect between market highs and economic lows is getting harder to explain, ignore or deny by the architects of the most artificial, rigged and dishonest market cycle in modern history.

In short, it is no longer even worth pretending that stock markets are correlated to such natural measurements as natural supply & demand or a nation’s economic productivity.

After all, who needs GDP in the New Abnormal?

By now, even Fed doublespeak can’t hide the fact that the only market force which the post-08 markets require is an accommodative central bank—i.e., a firehose of multi-trillion liquidity on demand.

The S&P 500 rises with central bank assets.

But as for this most recent GDP downgrade, it is being blamed on tanking US export data.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

COVID Bailouts Have Nothing to Do With COVID

COVID Bailouts Have Nothing to Do With COVID

Below, we ask a simple question: Is the war on COVID the needed pretext for even more centralized market “performance?”

After all, who needs free markets when central bank liquidity determines price forces via endless COVID bailouts?

The trend toward centralized controls and centralized markets was in play long before COVID, but has the pandemic given the powers-that-be even more power?

As we discuss below, COVID may just be the final nail in the coffin of free market capitalism.

In this murky light, do traditional market indicators and forces even matter anymore?

Consumer Sentiment: Who Cares?

As stocks reached all-time highs in U.S. markets, consumer confidence recently saw its 7th greatest collapse in history.

Stock market prior to COVID bailouts

Needless to say, cadres of Wall Street spin-sellers (propaganda specialists?) are already hard at work explaining why such a disconnect between sentiment and equity valuations (i.e., price bubbles) doesn’t matter.

After all, when buckets of QE liquidity pour daily into the financial system in a COVID-induced era of unlimited-QE, today’s central-bank driven markets don’t need consumer confidence or even healthy balance sheets (from free-cash-flows to profits & earnings) to make their zombie-like climb toward 34.6 PE levels on the S&P.

In short, who needs consumer confidence (or even consumers at all), when a central bank airbag sits permanently beneath the S&P, NASDAQ and DOW?

Words Replacing Math & Facts

Over a decade ago, when the first controversial bucket of QE1 began, Bernanke promised it would be a “temporary” measure.

But bear or bull, we are fairly clear by now that words like “temporary” and “transitory” coming out of D.C. are as empty as Nixon’s promise in 1971 that decoupling from the gold standard would be equally short-lived:

Nixon suspending the gold standard

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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Olduvai II: Exodus
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