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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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The West Must Never Again Go Totalitarian

The West Must Never Again Go Totalitarian The West can never again go totalitarian. We saw it happen generations ago. We fought two of humanity’s most destructive wars and faced the horror of industrial-scale extermination. Never again, said the world’s peoples in the late 1940s, and they began the difficult task of uncovering all that had […]

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Dissenters, Unite!

Dissenters, Unite! Being contrarian is hard work. You need to withstand ridicule, the loss of friends, employment, and acquaintances, face the imminent possibility that most of the time you’ll be wrong, and abandon the warm fuzzy feeling of having your otherwise friendly peers confirming your bias. Yet, authentic critics are crucially important, even if (and when) they are […]

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The Myth of Imminent Collapse

The Myth of Imminent Collapse The ills that have haunted our species since time immemorial — starvation, illness, protection from the elements — are less prevalent than ever before. At the same time we’ve probably never been as disillusioned about the fruits of progress.  Panicking about an imminent apocalyptic disaster, people march on the streets of the most prosperous cities in all […]

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What Does It Mean to Have Predicted an Economic Event?

What Does It Mean to Have Predicted an Economic Event? Consider the never-ending argument about whether certain economists did or did not predict the financial crisis in 2007-8. It raises all kinds of methodological questions in economics reaching back much further than Milton Friedman’s famous 1966 paper conceiving of economics as a predictive science.   Here’s the fundamental conundrum: […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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