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Time to Get Real: Part I

September 10, 2016

Time to Get Real: Part I In a world where fair value is a central bank veiled enigma it’s frankly a challenge to keep things real, but I’ll have a go at it in what will be a 3 part series covering central banks, the underlying fundamental picture, and a technical assessment of charts. In this part I’ll be covering […]

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A Wall Street Witches Brew——Hockey Sticks And Financial Engineering Games

April 19, 2016

A Wall Street Witches Brew——Hockey Sticks And Financial Engineering Games In a nearby post Jeff Snider makes a clean kill of the sell side hockey stick. Just 22 months ago (June 2014), Wall Street projected GAAP earnings of $144.60 per share for the S&P 500 in 2015. Needless to say, that was off by a country mile. In fact, […]

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For Canada’s Banks This Is “The Next Shoe To Drop”, And Why It Will Drop This Spring

March 31, 2016

For Canada’s Banks This Is “The Next Shoe To Drop”, And Why It Will Drop This Spring Roughly around the time the market troughed in early February, we asked “After The European Bank Bloodbath, Is Canada Next?” The reason for this question was simple: we said that “when compared to US banks’ (artificially low) reserves […]

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After Crashing, Deutsche Bank Is Forced To Issue Statement Defending Its Liquidity

February 8, 2016

After Crashing, Deutsche Bank Is Forced To Issue Statement Defending Its Liquidity The echoes of both Bear and Lehman are growing louder with every passing day. Just hours after Deutsche Bank stock crashed by 10% to levels not seen since the financial crisis, the German behemoth with over $50 trillion in gross notional derivative found […]

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Will Greek “Hope” Offset “Limit Down” Contagion From The “Frozen” China Crash

July 8, 2015

Will Greek “Hope” Offset “Limit Down” Contagion From The “Frozen” China Crash Today’s market battle will be between those (central banks) “hoping” that a Greek deal over the weekend is finallyimminent (which on one hand looks possible after a major backpeddling by Tsipras – who may never have wanted to win the Greferendum in the first place – […]

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Record Financial Engineering Will Goose Stocks: Goldman

April 29, 2015

Record Financial Engineering Will Goose Stocks: Goldman GE, in order to paper over a net loss of $13.6 billion and declining revenues in the first quarter, said on April 10 that it would buy back $50 billion of its own shares. That’s on top of the $10.8 billion in actual buybacks last year. The announcement was […]

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Some Folks At The Fed Are Lost——No Juice To The Macros, Part 1

March 25, 2015

Some Folks At The Fed Are Lost——No Juice To The Macros, Part 1 Yesterday we demonstrated that stock market valuations are not merely “on the high side” as Janet Yellen averred last week. Instead, they are positively in the nose-bleed section of history. You don’t get the Russell 2000 trading at 90X honest-to-goodness GAAP earnings […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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