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NOAA Warns US Megadrought Will Persist; May Impact Food Supply Chains
NOAA Warns US Megadrought Will Persist; May Impact Food Supply Chains
Abnormally dry to exceptional drought conditions are expected to persist across 60% of the continental U.S. as spring in the Northern Hemisphere begins. Forecasters expect little to no rain for certain parts of the western U.S. through June.
From April to June, above-average temperatures are expected from Southwest to the East Coast and north through the Midwest, according to a new outlook published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
NOAA’s map shows a greater than 50% chance of drought persistence for nearly 60% of the continental U.S.
“Severe to exceptional drought has persisted in some areas of the West since the summer of 2020, and drought has expanded to the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief, Operational Prediction Branch, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
“With nearly 60% of the continental U.S. experiencing minor to exceptional drought conditions, this is the largest drought coverage we’ve seen in the U.S. since 2013,” Gottschalck said.
The outlook also noted more than 50% of the U.S. will experience above-average temperatures this spring, with the greatest chances in the Southern Rockies and Southern Plains.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, at least 90% of nine western states are plagued with dry conditions, including all of California, Nevada, and Utah, and 99% of New Mexico.
NOAA’s latest forecast doesn’t bode well for the western U.S. farm industry as it could very well suggest the multiyear mega-drought (one of the worst in 1,200 years) could begin to impact the U.S. food supply and comes at a very inopportune time as the Russian invasion of Ukraine has choked the world of natural resources.
The U.S. and world are careening towards a food crisis. Perhaps it’s time to plant a garden and become independent as national and global food supply chains may begin to breakdown.
Food Supply Chains “Falling Apart” In Ukraine As “Imminent Famine” Risks Plague The World
Food Supply Chains “Falling Apart” In Ukraine As “Imminent Famine” Risks Plague The World
On Friday, Jakob Kern, an emergency coordinator at the United Nations (UN) World Food Programme (WFP), warned Ukraine’s food supply chains were collapsing as Russia bombed key infrastructures such as roads, bridges, and trains.
“The country’s food supply chain is falling apart. Movements of goods have slowed down due to insecurity and the reluctance of drivers,” Kern told a Geneva during a video conference from Krakow, Poland.
“Inside Ukraine our job is in effect, to replace the broken commercial food supply chains,” he added, describing the rebuilding task as a “mammoth” one.
Ukraine’s top agricultural export products are corn and wheat. Before the invasion, Ukraine was the second-largest supplier of grains for the European Union and one of the largest suppliers for emerging markets in Asia and Africa. Breaking down the numbers, Ukraine produced 49.6% of global sunflower oil, 10% of global wheat, 12.6% of global barley, and 15.3% of global maize.
Estimates via Black Sea research firm SovEcon show Ukraine’s 2022 corn harvest could plunge as much as 35% from 41.9 million tons last year to 27.7 million tons this year because of all the disruptions. Farmers are already reporting diesel and fertilizer shortages. Wheat harvests are also expected to decline. Some have even pointed total crop output in the country could be halved.
“With global food prices at an all-time high, WFP is also concerned about the impact of the Ukraine crisis on food security globally, especially hunger hot spots,” he said, warning of “collateral hunger” in other places like Egypt, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Turkey that rely heavily on Ukraine imports.
All of this has fueled the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization to warn global food prices could rise another 8-20% from current levels due to the deteriorating situation in Ukraine.
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Argentina Halts Soy Exports As Food Protectionism Soars
Argentina Halts Soy Exports As Food Protectionism Soars
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted the global food supply chain as the prospect for dwindling stockpiles catapulted food prices to record highs. Governments worldwide are beginning to enforce protectionist measures to safeguard domestic food supplies.
According to a memo signed by Javier Preciado Patino, the secretary for agriculture markets, Argentina made moves this weekend to increase control over local farm goods by suspending soybean meal and oil for export.
The temporary halt by the world’s top exporter of processed soy products comes after Russia invaded Ukraine that disrupted global food markets. Following the news from Argentina, soy meal futures prices jumped more than 2.2%.
Since late February, Argentina has intervened in food markets with a subsidy for the domestic wheat industry similar to earlier policies for vegetable oils to mitigate soaring costs for consumers. UN expects global food prices could increase another 8%-20% from here.
“The government typically puts a block on the export register, known as DJVE, before increasing taxes on shipments in order to stop farmers from preempting the hike with a flood of selling,” Bloomberg said, adding there’s speculation on commodity desks that Argentina will increase taxes on soy meal and oil to 33% from 31%.
Soy traders tell Reuters, “the sudden halt in Argentine supplies will steer importers toward the United States and Brazil for replacement supplies.”
“Buyers have no choice but to reduce consumption or go to alternative sources for supplies.
“We expect higher demand for U.S. meal. In Southeast Asia, buyers such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand were heavily reliant on the Argentine meal,” said one Singapore-based trader.
This all comes down to that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked protectionist measures not just by Argentina but also in other countries who are nervous about local supplies and soaring prices.
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Food Shortages Hit China: There Is “not…enough fresh food to go around”
Food Shortages Hit China: There Is “not…enough fresh food to go around”
Over the past few weeks, I have been writing articles regarding a coming food shortage. I’ve been pointing out that the food shortage is going to hit the United States hard but that it is also going to hit the rest of the world.
A worldwide fit of hysteria over COVID, resulting in the shutdown of the world’s economy, interruption of the supply chain, and the destruction of food products, as well as international trade wars and natural disasters, are going to collide with one another and make this winter one of the toughest on record.
China is publicly acknowledging a coming food shortage.
But while many have dismissed my claims, I’d like to draw your attention to the fact that China is now publicly acknowledging a coming food shortage. (And as noted in this article, when they admit there’s a problem, it’s a BIG problem. ) In fact, China even has an anti-food-wasting campaign going on across the country right this minute encouraging people to eat half portions or at least make sure to finish their plates.
In an October 5, article for the New York Times entitled “China’s mealtime appeal amid food supply worries: Don’t take more than you can eat,” Eva Dou writes,
On the surface, China’s campaign to encourage mealtime thrift has been a cheerful affair, with soldiers, factory workers and schoolchildren shown polishing their plates clean of food.
But behind the drive is a harsh reality. China does not have enough fresh food to go around — and neither does much of the world.
The pandemic and extreme weather have disrupted agricultural supply chains, leaving food prices sharply higher in countries as diverse as Yemen, Sudan, Mexico and South Korea. The United Nations warned in June that the world is on the brink of its worst food crisis in 50 years.
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The Supply Chain Is Broken and Food Shortages Are HERE
The Supply Chain Is Broken and Food Shortages Are HERE
If you are a reader of this site, you might be more interested in the food supply chain than most, at least when things are good. So, if you have been paying attention recently, you might find that there have been some severe disturbances in that supply chain.
Several months ago, the immediate disruptions began at the beginning of the COVID-19 hysteria, when factories, distribution centers, and even farms shut down under the pretext of “flattening the curve.”
As a result, Americans found necessities were missing on the shelves for the first time in years. Items like hand sanitizer and Clorox wipes were, of course, out of stock.
Soon other items became noticeably missing as well.
People began to notice meat, and even canned vegetables and rice were soon missing from the shelves. Most of this was simply the result of mass panic buying, although “preppers” were blamed for “hoarding.” Therefore, people who had not been prepping all along and were suddenly caught with their pants down.
Manufacturing and packaging facilities and slaughterhouses shut down due to intrusive totalitarian government reactions to an alleged pandemic. Combined with panic buying, those facilities’ ability to replace what was bought up was drastically reduced. As a result, consumers were forced to wait weeks before buying what they needed (or wanted) again. Even then, they had to show up in the morning.
We are still experiencing those shortages, though better hidden. As anyone who shops regularly can tell you, you can find what you need, but you may have to go to three stores to get it, where one would have done in the past. In this article, you’ll find some advice about dealing with the limited varieties of inventory that people are currently noticing at stores.
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Alberta’s Meat Plant Workers Share Their Fears and Anger
Alberta’s Meat Plant Workers Share Their Fears and Anger
As Cargill prepares to reopen, voices from the frontlines of Canada’s largest COVID-19 outbreak.
They fear the virus. They are concerned about the futures. They worry for their communities.
And they say neither the government nor two foreign-owned companies, which account for 70 per cent of the nation’s beef slaughtering capacity, are doing enough to ensure their safety.
They say the companies didn’t provide adequate protective gear for the people who butcher Canada’s beef until it was too late.
The Tyee interviewed five Alberta employees of two meat plants, parts of different international conglomerates. The people interviewed are members of a largely immigrant work force that speaks dozens of languages and now finds itself at the centre of the largest COVID-19 outbreak in Canada.
Those who work at the JBS meat-processing plant in Brooks wondered why it has never shut down in order to do a thorough disinfection and increase its safety measures.
Those who work at the Cargill meat-packing plant in High River said the company has lied about the protections provided, as well as compensation paid.
As one shared, “Why did this virus spread? It came from the fabrication floor where there is no airflow, and we are working elbow to elbow and there is no distancing. Where are the safety precautions? They said they did the safety precautions. No they didn’t.”
Now that worker and others fear returning to work when the Cargill plant reopens Monday. Among that plant’s employees, 921 out of 2,000 are now infected. At least seven workers are in hospital and five are in intensive care. One Cargill worker and a close contact have died.
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“Crisis In Processing” – Pandemic Exposes Fragility Of Food Supply Chain
“Crisis In Processing” – Pandemic Exposes Fragility Of Food Supply Chain
Today’s food supply chain crisis began in the meat industry has been developing for decades, and Tyson Foods has helped to create the disaster that is currently unfolding.
The problem is consolidation, and with Tyson, JBS SA and Cargill Inc, three mega-corporations that control 66% of America’s beef, as much of it is processed in just a few dozen meatpacking facilities across the US. Only a few companies also dominate pork and Chicken.
There have been at least 12 closures of meatpacking plants in April because of virus-related issues among employees. This has resulted in at least 25% of pork and 10% of beef processing capacity coming offline in the last several weeks, reported Bloomberg.
“This is 100% a symptom of consolidation,” said Christopher Leonard, author of “The Meat Racket,” which examines the protein industry. “We don’t have a crisis of supply right now. We have a crisis in processing. And the virus is exposing the profound fragility that comes with this kind of consolidation.”
On Sunday, Tyson Foods warned in a full-page ad in the New York Times that the “food supply chain is breaking.”
“As pork, beef and chicken plants are being forced to close, even for short periods of time, millions of pounds of meat will disappear from the supply chain,” wrote Tyson Chairman John Tyson, patriarch of the company’s founding family, in a Tyson Foods website post that also ran as a full-page ad in several newspapers. “The food supply chain is breaking.”
Then on Tuesday, President Trump signed an order for meatpacking facilities to remain open during the pandemic. With plants being forced to stay open as the fast-spreading virus infects workers, that doesn’t necessarily mean workers will show up to work. We discussed that over the weekend in a piece titled “American Farms Cull Millions Of Chickens Amid Virus-Related Staff Shortages At Processing Plants.”
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Fraying Food System May Be Our Next Crisis
Fraying Food System May Be Our Next Crisis
If you’re already overwhelmed with news of the pandemic and are coping with depression, read no further. However, if you’re a crisis responder by inclination or profession, you might start thinking food.
Experts who study what makes societies sustainable (or unsustainable) have been warning for decades that our modern food system is packed with ticking bombs. The ways we grow, process, package, and distribute food depend overwhelmingly on finite, depleting, and polluting fossil fuels. Industrial agriculture contributes to climate change, and results in soil erosion and salinization. Ammonia-based fertilizers create “dead zones” near river deltas while petrochemical pesticides and herbicides pollute air and water. Modern agriculture also contributes to deforestation and biodiversity loss. Monocrops—huge fields of genetically uniform corn and soybeans—are especially vulnerable to pests and diseases. Long supply chains make localities increasingly dependent on distant suppliers. The system tends to exploit low-wage workers. And food is often unequally distributed and even unhealthful, contributing to poor nutrition as well as diabetes and other diseases.
Whatever is unsustainable must, by definition, end at some point, and critics of our present food system say that a crisis is increasingly likely (just as public health professionals had long warned of the growing likelihood of a global pandemic).
And yet, year after year, decade after decade, crop yields have increased. The famine that ecologist Paul Ehrlich cautioned about in his 1968 book The Population Bomb never materialized. Indeed, our ability to feed an exponentially growing human population is frequently touted as a primary benefit of modern industrial agriculture and globalization.
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Global Food Supply Chains Beginning to Erode, Crisis Looms?
Global Food Supply Chains Beginning to Erode, Crisis Looms?
As the coronavirus continues to infect more and more people, food supply chains have started to become more strained in recent days. It was announced yesterday; the world’s biggest pork producer is closing a primary U.S plant indefinitely after a coronavirus outbreak amongst employees.
Smithfield Foods Inc. will halt its pork-processing facility in South Dakota, which accounts for 4% to 5% of U.S pork production. The company also warned that closures across the country are taking American meat supplies “perilously close to the edge” of shortfalls. This is just one of the latest examples of the coronavirus beginning to disrupt food chains at a more significant scale rapidly.
We anticipated this, as we reported on April 1 that food supply chains were in the early stages of being strained. Many countries were preparing many weeks ago by cutting back on exports to begin stockpiling. Surprisingly, dairy farmers in the United States are starting to dump milk because there was no place for them to go as the marketplace for dairy products has been affected by the closures of restaurants, schools, hotels, and food service businesses.
One would begin to believe history might not be repeating itself, but it is undoubtedly starting to rhyme. During the great depression of the 1930s, the hardest-hit industry was farming. Farm incomes dropped by nearly two-thirds at the beginning of the 1930s. Dairy farmers dumped countless gallons of milk into the street instead of accepting a penny a quart.
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