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Culmination of Fed Interventions Inflates Historic “Everything Bubble”

We reported on last year’s partial deflation of the “everything bubble,” aided in part by the COVID-19 pandemic and erratic response to it.

But it could be a bit premature to consider that partial crash a singular event, followed by another period of economic recovery.

In fact things seem a lot worse economically, and this time in the worst way possible. At The Hill, Desmond Lachman describes how the U.S. may have reached the end of the economic road:

Herb Stein famously said that if something cannot go on forever it will stop. He might very well have been talking about today’s everything bubble in U.S. and world financial markets, which has largely been fueled by the Federal Reserve’s extraordinarily easy monetary policy.

The “everything bubble” Lachman refers to is easy to see in the current Shiller Price Earnings Ratio. It’s higher than the 1929 Depression, and on a trajectory towards “dot-com bust” levels from 2000. You can see for yourself on the latest Shiller PE chart below:

Everything Bubble: Shiller Price Earnings Ratio Chart

Schiller PE measures the price to average earnings from the past ten years. Today, on average, an investor pays $34.87 to secure $1 annual earnings.

Both of the past economic peaks, the Great Depression and the Dot-com crash, were “everything bubbles”. Today’s Shiller PE ratio has already surpassed Black Tuesday‘s…

You’ve seen charts before – why care about this one? A few reasons: its inventor, Robert J. Shiller, won the 2013 Nobel Prize for economics (and a bucket of other prizes). He’s been on the list of 100 most influential economists in the world since 2008. His book Irrational Exuberance came out in March 2000, warning that the stock market was in a bubble. (He was right.) Almost exactly one year before Lehman Brothers collapsed, Shiller authored a prescient warning – here’s the summary:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Federal Reserve & Fake Conspiracies

QUESTION: I found your history of the Federal Reserve very insightful which nobody else has put together. Can you explain your comment that the ECB could go bankrupt but not the Fed?

Thank you very much.

HB

ANSWER: Here is a full set of $1 bills with each issued by its respective branch. I would like to t5han Kohn C for having this framed and sent to me as a gift. The Federal Reserve is independent whereas it has its own authority to increase or decrease its power to create elastic money. I understand that many see this as evil, but it was absolutely essential. During an economic crash, people hoard their cash and do not spend it. Consequently, banks start to fail because they lent money out long-term as in mortgages but the demands by depositors are immediate. That is why a bank would fail in the midst of a run. Its assets are tied up in loans which they then recall and cannot sell the real estate to get liquid.

Right now we have had that problem where the velocity of money has been declining from 2007 until Trump was elected, but then it took a nose-dive in a waterfall event thanks to COVID lockdowns and rising unemployment. The Fed’s “elastic” money means they can create money in electronic form purchasing in debt which in theory injects cash into the system. However, because Congress has been so corrupt, the requirement to buy government debt has not directly helped the economy as it was originally intended to do in 1913 when it would only by corporate debt. That prevented companies from going bust and laying off people because they did not have the immediate cash.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

martin armstrong, armstrong economics, fed, us federal reserve, money printing, money, fiat currency, conspiracies

A World that Operates by Financial Cheating and Unsound Money Is Doomed

It’s all phony money but there’s no revolt yet.
Value for ValueMy friend Hugo Salinas Price wrote a short post that I agree with.

Please consider A World that Operates by Cheating Is Doomed

In ages past, gold and silver provided humanity with a system of economic co-operation among productive humans, which was fair to all participants.

With gold and silver, humans were trading value-for-value: what changed hands were amounts of physical gold or silver, or at least, Bills which were unquestioned claims upon gold or silver.

When the exchange had taken place, everyone was happy! The seller because he had gold or silver, in exchange for the goods or services he offered; and the buyer was pleased because he had the goods or services he wanted, and he got them by tendering gold or silver in exchange.

So, everyone was pleased: the buyer because he got the goods or services he wanted, in exchange for his gold or silver; and the seller was pleased because he traded the goods or services he had to offer, tor gold or silver.

Under the present monetary system, there can be no justice or “fair trading”, because all the World’s MONEY IS FAKE MONEY. No money in today’s world is gold or silver, nor does it represent an unquestioned claim upon a stated amount of gold or silver.

And a gigantic shooting war will mark the end of our times, as a result of the cheating involved – all because fake money was forced upon humanity.

No Consequences, Yet

Except in isolated hyperinflation cases, governments have learned there are no consequences to the ruling class (at least yet) for unsound money.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Crazy days for money

Crazy days for money

This article anticipates the end of the fiat currency regime and argues why its replacement can only be gold and silver, most likely in the form of fiat money turned into gold substitutes.

It explains why the current fashion for cryptocurrencies, led by bitcoin, are unsuited as future mediums of exchange, and why unsuppressed bitcoin has responded more immediately to the current situation than gold. Furthermore, the US authorities are likely to suppress the bitcoin movement because it is a threat to the dollar and monetary policy.

This article explains why growth in GDP represents growth in the quantity of money and is not representative of activity in the underlying economy. The authorities’ monetary response to the current economic situation is ill-informed, based on a misunderstanding of what GDP represents.

The common belief in the fund management community that rising interest rates are bad for gold exposes a lack of understanding about the consequences of monetary inflation on relative time preferences. Rising interest rates will be with us shortly, and they will burst the bond bubble with negative consequences for all financial assets and the currencies that have inflated them.

In short, we are sitting on a monetary powder-keg, the danger of which is barely understood by policy makers and which could explode at any time.

Introduction

We have entered a period the likes of which we have never seen before. The collapse of the dollar and dollar assets is growing increasingly certain by the day. The money-printing of the dollar designed to inflate assets will end up destroying the dollar. We know this thanks to the John Law precedent three hundred years ago. I last wrote about this two weeks ago, here. In 1720, it was just France and Law’s livre…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Historical lessons in prosperity vs. poverty

Historical lessons in prosperity vs. poverty

As the grandson of Genghis Khan, Kublai Khan had a lot to prove.

So he set his eyes on the biggest prize in the known world at the time: southern China.

Kublai Khan completed his conquest of China in 1279, forging a new empire and creating the Yuan dynasty.

The Mongols were known for their expensive habits— they liked war and women especially. So when the money started to run out, administrators in the Yuan dynasty started printing paper money.

Yuan officials weren’t the first to come up with this idea; the government from the prior Song dynasty had also printed paper money. But there was a huge difference—

Paper currency from the Song dynasty, known as guanzi, was backed by copper, silver, and gold coins.

The Yuan currency, however, was backed by nothing. So whenever the government started to run out of money, they simply printed more.

By 1350, Kublai Khan had been dead for decades. But the Yuan dynasty’s economic overseers were still printing paper money like crazy. And it was causing severe hyperinflation across China.

People’s lives were turned upside down by the government’s fiscal irresponsibility, and rebellions broke out across the country.

By 1368, the Yuan dynasty had completely collapsed, and a destitute peasant farmer-turned-monk named Zhu Yuanzhang rose up to become Emperor and found the new Ming Dynasty.

To stimulate the economy ravaged by inflation, the Ming dynasty created an unprecedented level of economic freedom.

Markets and industries were deregulated; the government abandoned its monopoly on salt production, for example, and merchants were encouraged to allow market competition to set prices.

In time, the government stabilized the currency and reintroduced metallic coins. And by the 1500s Ming officials even allowed foreign currencies like the Spanish Silver Dollar to circulate in China.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The U.S. Dollar Could Be Nearing Its “End Game”

From foreign countries trying to dethrone the dollar’s hegemony as global reserve currency, all the way to rising inflation weakening it… the U.S. dollar is in trouble.

Pundits like Jim Rickards said (back in 2016): “The dollar won’t lose its reserve currency status overnight” — and he was right. But a new and disturbing signal could finally be revealing the end game.

You can see the dollar’s loss of about 10% value against other currencies and its persistent downward trend since March 2020 reflected in the dollar index chart below:

dollar index chart from March 2020-February 2021

To get an even better idea of that persistent downward trend, we need to look all the way back to 2002, when the dollar index (DXY) peaked around 117. Not only is today’s dollar worth 10% less than last year’s – it’s 25% weaker than in 2002.

In fact, one forecast reported on Bloomberg in June 2020 called for a 35% decline in value by the end of 2021, which would leave the dollar index at 65. If that plays out, the index would be reporting its lowest value in at least 35 years.

In addition, a new Bloomberg report gave three reasons why the “dollar is now trading at the lowest level against its peers since 2018”:

1) Sharp widening in the U.S. current-account [trade] deficit.
2) Rise of the euro.
3) A Federal Reserve that would do little in response to any weakness in the greenback.

There is no doubt the trade deficit is a problem. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the gap between imports and exports is at its widest since 2006. That won’t help the dollar recover.

The Fed’s inflation policy isn’t likely to help the dollar much because it “printed” itself into a corner with its loose monetary policy. The same Bloomberg piece further clarifies the Fed’s inflation strategy:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Canada & The Canceling of its Currency

QUESTION #1: If Canada is not a dictatorship, how can Trudeau cancel the dollar? How can he do so in secret?

RW

QUESTION #2: Why can’t Biden follow Trudeau and cancel the dollar?

EH

ANSWER: The answer lies in the difference in history.  Because the paper currency called bills-of-credit back then became worthless, the Framers of the Constitution expressly took into account currency. I have written before that when I was a market-maker in gold and one of the three largest in the country, the IRS walked in and declared me to be a bank and then I was supposed to report everyone who bought or sold gold in $10,000 amounts or more. They cited the Constitution saying that gold and silver were money thereby making me a bank because Nixon only closed the gold window, he never DEMONITIZED gold. So I was suddenly a bank in no need of such a license for the purposes of the IRS. Hence, I retired.

This raises an interesting question. Can Congress create a digital dollar constitutionally? The question of money was thus settled directly in the Constitution because each state had previously issued its own coinage and paper bills-of-credit (paper money).

Article 1 – The Legislative Branch
Section 10 – Powers Prohibited of States
<<Back | Table of Contents | Next>>

No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Markets in Light of the Chaos

When we look around the world the final say in every election is always the vote of capital – which is international rather than confined to local politics. Biden has already shut down the pipeline from Alberta which will only be symbolic for whatever substitute will mere be brought in by ship and pumped into another pipeline. But politics is never about reality – it is only concerned about appearance.

When we look around the world, we must do so through the eyes of the FX markets for only then will we begin to see the real trends. The German DAX has made a new high in euros, but not in the main global currencies. In both dollars and Japanese yen, the DAX has not yet come close to making new highs.

 

Then we have the confusing trend in gold. So many have been asking for a Gold Report ASAP because nothing has made sense after all of these years touting gold is a hedge against inflation and the dollar will collapse. There is even the most bizarre analysis claiming that just a few months before Covid appeared, the Fed was busy pouring boat-loads of dollars into the US banks into the inter-lending market known as REPO to prevent bank-runs which were starting to develop. They claimed these were the same “tectonic fissures that developed prior to the 2008 crisis” when banks became so distrustful of each other’s solvency. They concluded: “If unsuppressed the lending rates would continue to rise, laying a path to bank failures and a contagion which would eventually derail the economy and undermine the dollar itself.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Plus ça change: A French Lesson in Monetary Debauchery

Plus ça change: A French Lesson in Monetary Debauchery

Fiscal policy shifted into turbo-charged, warp speed, overdrive early into the COVID related recession. To facilitate the borrowing binge, the Federal Reserve took unprecedented monetary actions. In 2020, the fiscal deficit (November 2019- October 2020) rose $3.1 trillion and was matched one for one with a $3.2 trillion increase in the Fed’s balance sheet.

The Fed is indirectly funding the government, but are they printing money? Technically they are not. However, they are inching closer through various funding programs in coordination with the Treasury Department.

Will the Fed ever print money? In our opinion, it is becoming increasingly likely as the requirements to service the interest and principal on existing debt, plus new debt, far exceeds what the economy is producing.

Given the increasingly dire mismatch between debt and economic activity, we think it is helpful to retell a tale we wrote about in 2015.  This article is more than a history lesson. It effectively illustrates the road on which the U.S. and many other nations currently travel.

This story is not a forecast but a simple reminder of what has repeatedly happened in the past.  

As you read, notice the lines French politicians use to persuade the opposition to justify money printing.  Note the similarities to the rationales used by central bankers, MMT’ers, and neo-Keynesian economists today. Then, as now, monetary policy is promoted as a cure for economic ills. As we are now constantly reminded, massive monetary actions have manageable consequences, and failure is blamed on not acting boldly enough.

Our gratitude to the late Andrew D. White, on whose work we relied heavily. The exquisite account of France circa the 1780-the 1790s was well documented in his paper entitled “Fiat Money Inflation in France” published in-1896. Any unattributed quotes were taken from his paper.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The global reset scam

The global reset scam

This article takes a tilt at increasing speculation about statist global resets, and why plans such as those promoted by the World Economic Forum will fail. Central bank digital currencies will simply run out of time.

Instead, the collapse of unbacked fiat currencies will end all supra-national government solutions to their policy failures. Already, there is mounting evidence of money beginning to flee bank accounts into stocks, commodities and even bitcoin. This is an early warning of a rapidly developing monetary collapse.

Moreover, nothing can now stop the collapse of fiat currencies, and with it schemes to control humanity for the convenience and ambitions of government planners. There can only be one statist solution and that is to mobilise gold reserves to back and save their currencies, which in order to succeed will have to be fully convertible into circulating gold coinage. It will also require the role of governments to be reset into a non-welfare, non-interventionist minimalist role, which can only be achieved after a complete collapse of the current fiat-financed system.

Anything less will fail.

The Deep State and The Blob fuel conspiracy theories

Increasingly, people are beginning to realise that their world is undergoing a period of rapid change, with the future of fiat money now uncertain. For most, it is too difficult to even contemplate. But growing uncertainties are driving wild speculation about what those in authority now have in store for the human race in the form of a global reset. It is a time for conspiracy theorists, aided and abetted by our politicians and central bankers who are being increasingly evasive, because events are spiralling out of their control.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The monetary logic for gold and silver

The monetary logic for gold and silver

A considered reflection of current events leads to only one conclusion, and that is accelerating inflation of the dollar’s money supply is firmly on the path to destroying the dollar’s purchasing power — completely.

This article looks at the theoretical and empirical evidence from previous fiat money collapses in order to impart the knowledge necessary for individuals to seek early protection from an annihilation of fiat currencies. It assesses the likely speed of the collapse of fiat money and debates the future of money in a post-fiat world, in which the likely successors are metallic money — gold and silver— and some would say cryptocurrencies.

Early action to lessen the impact of a failure of the fiat regime requires an understanding of the role of money in order to decide what will be the future money when fiat dies. Will we be pricing goods and services in gold or a cryptocurrency? Will gold be priced in bitcoin or bitcoin priced in gold? And if bitcoin is priced in gold, will its function of a store of value still exist?

Introduction

This week saw the news that a vaccine had been found to combat the coronavirus. At least it offers the prospect of humanity ridding itself of the virus in due course, but it will not be enough to rescue the global economy from its deeper problems. Monetary inflation is therefore far from running its course.

The reaction in financial markets to the vaccine news was contradictory: equity markets rallied strongly ignoring rapidly deteriorating fundamentals, and gold slumped on a minor recovery in the dollar’s trade weighted index. Rather than blindly accepting the reasons for outcomes put forward by the financial press we must accept that during these inflationary times that markets are not functioning efficiently.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Bogus Case Against Gold

The Bogus Case Against Gold

Gold is in the early stages of its third great bull run that will take it to record heights.

The first two great bull markets were 1971-1980 (gold up 2,200%) and 1999-2011 (gold up 760%). After peaking in 2011, gold fell sharply from that peak to below $1,100 per ounce by 2015.

Now the third great bull market is underway. It began on December 16, 2015, when gold bottomed at $1,050 per ounce at the end of the 2011-2015 bear market. Since then, gold is up significantly, but it’s small change compared to 2,200% and 760% gains in the last two bull markets.

Still, most mainstream economists dismiss gold. They call it a barbarous relic and say it has no place in today’s monetary system.

But today, I want to remind you of the three main arguments mainstream economists make against gold and why they’re dead wrong.

There’s Just Not Enough Gold to Support the Money Supply!

The first one you may have heard many times. “Experts” say there’s not enough gold to support a global financial system. Gold can’t support all the world’s paper money, its assets and liabilities, its expanded balance sheets of all the banks and the financial institutions in the world. They say there’s not enough gold to support that money supply.

That argument is complete nonsense. It’s true that there’s a limited quantity of gold. But more importantly, there’s always enough gold to support the financial system. The key is to set its price correctly.

It is true that at today’s price of about $1,875 an ounce, pegging it to the existing money supply would be highly deflationary.

But to avoid that, all we have to do is increase the gold price. In other words, take the amount of existing gold, place it at, say, $14,000 an ounce, and there’s plenty of gold to support the money supply.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Our Bizarre Economy 2.0 Is A Spending Based Illusion

Our Bizarre Economy 2.0 Is A Spending Based Illusion

To say the economy we are seeing during 2020 is a bit bizarre is an understatement. Nobody predicted anything like we are seeing today. As money continues to be created out of thin air we are witnessing bailouts and crony capitalism on full display. Another factor playing into this circus is both Presidential candidates are engaged in a full-court press to buy the votes of Americans. This has resulted in a stock market rally based on the idea that more stimulus is just around the corner. Those interested in getting a handle on what is really happening should keep front and center a few facts that might help them better understand just how whacked out and bizarre things have become.Every trillion dollars the Federal Reserve and American Government injects into the economy adds a massive $3,333 per man woman and child in America. Recently aid packages from Washington alone have put about three times that into the mix. The whopping ten thousand dollar bang dished out for each of us was bound to move the economic needle. Adding to this distortion is how it has enabled countries throughout the world to enact similar stimulus packages without lowering the value of their currencies in relation to the dollar.

The true state of the economy has been papered over by the injection of trillions of dollars of freshly created money being injected into the mix. This has resulted in a liquidity bubble that masks reality and perpetuated several myths that are destined to come back and bite us. The assumption that unlimited monetization is sustainable and cost-free has never been proven to be the case. Today those promoting it as a solution to our problems claim are assuming that soaring public debt is no problem so long as interest rates are ultra-low and have been assured by central banks across the world this will be the case going forward.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold and Crypto: Is This How Charts Look Before A Monetary Collapse?

Gold and Crypto: Is This How Charts Look Before A Monetary Collapse?

It is the the massive debt. It cannot be serviced. It will collapse the whole system.

The gold, silver and cryptocurrencies charts are showing signs of going parabolic. The US dollar is close to confirming a massive breakdown.

Gold, silver and cryptocurrencies all provide “crisis value” by simply being an acceptable debt-based fiat alternative. It is only later in this crisis that we will see a divergence between cryptocurrency and precious metals.

For now, they are likely to move higher together.

Gold has recently made new all-time highs, and seems ready to go higher after a decent consolidation. The importance of the 2011 all-time high can be seen on these charts:

I have marked two fractals (ABC). Both fractals start from the Dow/Gold ratio peaks (1966 and 1999). For these to continue the similarity, the level ($1920) at A and C needs to be surpassed on the current fractal.

We’ve already seen the breakout, now price has just been consolidating around that level. It is very close to blasting higher.

From a cycle analysis point of view, we are right at a point where a sustained multi-year gold rally is possible:

The top chart is gold from about 1997 to 2020 (current fractal), and the bottom chart is gold from about 1965 to 1980 (70s fractals). If the current fractal continues to follow the 70s fractal, then we could see gold continue to multiples of its current all-time high.

Currently, we are just after, or close to, a major Dow peak in the economic cycle. Again, you can see that the 2011 peak is an important indicator to confirm these fractals as relevant. It could also be considered a marker after which the chart is likely to go parabolic.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hyperinflation is here

Hyperinflation is here

Definition: Hyperinflation is the condition whereby monetary authorities accelerate the expansion of the quantity of money to the point where it proves impossible for them to regain control.

It ends when the state’s fiat currency is finally worthless. It is an evolving crisis, not just a climactic event.

Summary

This article defines hyperinflation in simple terms, making it clear that most, if not all governments have already committed their unbacked currencies to destruction by hyperinflation. The evidence is now becoming plain to see.

The phenomenon is driven by the excess of government spending over tax receipts, which has already spiralled out of control in the US and elsewhere. The first round of the coronavirus has only served to make the problem more obvious to those who had already understood that the expansionary phase of the bank credit cycle was coming to an end, and by combining with the economic consequences of the trade tariff war between China and America we are condemned to a repeat of the conditions that led to the Wall Street crash of 1929—32.

For economic historians these should be statements of the obvious. The fact is that the tax base, which is quantified by GDP, when measured by the true rate of the dollar’s loss of purchasing power and confirmed by the accelerated rate of increase in broad money over the last ten years has been declining sharply in real terms while government spending commitments continue to rise.

In this article it is documented for the dollar,but the same hyperinflationary dynamics affect nearly all other fiat currencies.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
In progress...

Olduvai II: Exodus
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