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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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EU Polices on Farming will Create a Famine


The EU is indeed playing into our model which has been projecting this would be a commodity wave built on food shortages. They will indeed contribute to worldwide famine and they have been supported by Bill Gates which seems to actually play into his desire to reduce world population. Food prices will rise and the poor will be left starving. This will contribute to the rising civil unrest much as the food shortages led to the French Revolution.

Food Shortages Hitting China

I have explained many times that while we see this 8.6-wave of the Economic Confidence Model as inflationary, this is strikingly different insofar as it will be on the back of food shortages.  I have warned that Socrates was projecting food shortages because of the weather. However, now we have these global elitists manipulating the world economy through most likely bribing politicians to further their Great Reset, the likes of Bill Gates has strategic investments in every area including meat substitutes which advocating lockdowns that have reduced the food supply as well.

Now we see food shortages impacting even China. Gates may get his wish of reducing the world population by the age-old method of starvation. The most interesting aspect of this is that historically first you have food shortages which result in a reduction of population, but they also lower the health of the population which then makes them susceptible to disease. This so far is on target. We should see the rise in food prices continue and peak in 2024.

So once again, stockpile some canned food while you still can.

Inflation into 2021

Inflation into 2021

QUESTION: Hi, Martin
You have referenced the three different types of inflation in previous posts. Please speak to what we can expect to see manifest from this record money printing/stimulus from the Fed.

ANSWER: This cycle will be on the back of shortages in commodities. This is what the computer has been forecasting all along. We have been witnessing shortages in food. But this coronavirus has also disrupted the supply chain in many areas. Then we have the Monetary Crisis Cycle coming for 2021 into 2022. With Europe planning to cancel its paper currency to try to force everyone into banks, you have the punters looking at this as bullish short-term for a trade.

The European and Japanese governments will have little choice moving forward, for they have destroyed their bond markets and are UNABLE to issue bonds that institutions will buy at these crazy rates. It is more than a simplistic printing of money. We are looking at the bond market is collapsing. This is the DESTRUCTION of Capital Formation so in the end, capital must flee anything connected with governments and seek shelter in primarily the stock markets.

So far, we are into a 3-month reactionary bounce with the NASDAQ taking the lead and the Dow lagging. This is very disquieting for it warns we are going to see much higher volatility into the next two years, perhaps more so than anyone has ever witnessed in their life or for the past 300 years.

Australia Lowers Rate to Historic Low of 1%

Australia Lowers Rate to Historic Low of 1% 

The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut the official cash rate for the second month in a row to 1%. As we head into the turning point of the Economic Confidence Model come January 2020, the unemployment rate increased to 5.2% in April. GDP growth remains very low at 0.4%, wage growth is sluggish, inflation is well below target, and retail sales are struggling. None of this will change until after the ECM turns as people begin to see that central banks are incapable of managing the economy.

The Perfect Financial Storm

The Perfect Financial Storm 

COMMENT: Martin,

Have read the two blogs on the Emerging Markets. Hit like a cold bucket of ice water. Knew something was coming from all your writings and the EMC, but Wow. Right in front of us.

Here is an observation, a thought:
Emerging Markets could turn out to be the Sub-Prime of this new era.
On the periphery. A Liquidity crises. Unplanned for, because Unexpected.


REPLY: This is going to be an extremely interesting WEC. Whatever could go wrong is going wrong in the world. It is becoming the perfect financial storm as we head into the bottom of the Economic Confidence Model. We have politicians only looking at saving their own power who are blind to the implications of their actions on a global scale. There are even rumors now that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will claim some manipulation of the election by another country in a vast conspiracy. If he loses, he will likely refuse to leave office.

The Business Cycle & Why They Pretend it Cannot be Forecast

The Business Cycle & Why They Pretend it Cannot be Forecast 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have studied you Economic Confidence Model and found it to be extremely accurate in forecasting the business cycle. When I showed it to my professor here at ——— he responded that itis impossible to forecast the business cycle. He would not even engage in a conversation about it. Why are they so intimidated by your work?

Thank you

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ANSWER: What you have to understand is that IF it is possible to forecast the business cycle, then that means politics have to change. The entire system is based upon the proposition of vote for me and I will reduce unemployment and bring world peace unless I do not like the people. If you listen to Larry Summers, he states that if you could forecast the business cycle, that would be bad because it would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. He also states that the economy is far too complex, like weather, with way too many moving components that make it impossible to forecast. That means the door is open to manipulate the economy, as he suggested with negative interest rates. When that failed, he then discovered there was the zero interest boundary where people would withdraw their cash from banks and defeat his negative interest tool. He has thus advocated eliminating physical paper money to allow his negative interest rate idea to then work — so he maintains. He ignores, of course, the entire pension fund system.

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There Are Two Types of Pole Shifts & We Seem to be on Course for an event Faster than Most Ever Believed

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I agree that something seems to be changing faster than perhaps we might have expected. Is there anything that points to how fast a pole change might actually take place? How long do such events last? Is that a permanent change?

Thank you for a most thought-provoking blog


ANSWER: First of all, there are two types of pole shifts. There are the major polarity shifts which seem to be 720,000 years. Then there are what are known as excursions. The last “excursion” took place around 41,000 years ago and it was also associated with an Ice Age. This excursion was, in fact, a Global Event from all the data and these tend to be just short-term flips that are not permanent. Factoring in that data with the broader more permanent reversals warns that we are potentially in line for such an event and it may, in fact, line up with the Economic Confidence Model come 2032.

The central question that dominates virtually every field of science has been to identify HOW something moves? Do things move in a nice progressive linear fashion, or are they a burst of chaotic energy from the unknown abyss? This debate between a sudden catastrophic event that appears almost out of nowhere without warning and the slow gradual progression portraying the linear world of uniformity, has been raging since the mid to late 1700s when they began to discover frozen mammoths in Russia. This debate becomes critical today if we expect to ascertain what the future might bring. For at its very core lies the way we not merely should expect things to happen, but how we can then deal with them from a social-economic management perspective.

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Greece & the Debt Crisis

The entire EU Crisis began precisely on schedule on the Political Pi Turning point from the major high in 2007. Precisely on the day of the ECM turning point, April 16, 2010 (2010.29) Greece notified the IMF it was on the verge of bankruptcy. By April 22nd, the Euro fell to near year-low levels amid concerns about Greece’s debt crisis. The IMF activated the loan facility and Greece received its first €45 billion on April 23rd, 2010. Then on May 9th, the IMF approved a bailout package for Greece with the largest loan and exceptional, fast-track access. Of course, that turning point of April 16th, 2010 was also the first time the SEC charged Goldman Sachs with outright FRAUD is selling its Mortgage Backed Securities.

Mother-MerkelIn dealing with Greece, the German head of state Chancellor Angela Merkel, had promised the German taxpayers that any loan to Greece they will be held to the fire and forced to repay. The polls were turning hard against Merkel as she was being bashed in the world press for Greece had forgiven Germany’s debt after World War II, but Merkel refused to provide any relief for Greece because of her campaign promise. The divert the press from here hardline policy on Greece, Merkel then summarily announced that she would take the refugees from Syria with open arms. That then began the European Refugee Crisis and Merkel then force the rest of Europe to share the burden she created unilaterally. The entire European Refugee Crisis was created by Merkel, and this has been at the center of the crisis which is tearing Europe apart at the seams. That came as the next ECM wave turned from its peak 2015.75.

Now as we approach the next political Pi Turning Point due on November 21st, 2018, which will be 8.6 years from when the Greek debt crisis began, the EU Commission has demanded from the Eurozone states that debt relief should be provided to Greece. 

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Sovereign Debt Crisis – Cycle Due 2017


QUESTION: Hi Martin It’s been 30 years since I first saw you speak and this year I’m taking my son to Orlando to see you for the first time. How time flies. That said why have you not talked about the 86 year Sovereign Debt cycle that is forecasting a Great Depression for 2017. Have the monetary powers delayed this?

Thanks for all you do.

See you in November.


ANSWER: No. 2017 is the start of this whole mess. We have bank runs in Greece because the prevailing view is that Merkel will not relent and Greece cannot pay. This is why we are holding two conferences this year because it is very important and it is why I highlighted Greece in the report we issued for 2017.

BTW, thank you for this old hand drawn chart I did so long ago. I didn’t have a copy of it. People do not realize that these forecasts were made decades ago.

DJ20-40-M in BP

We also marked that 2009 would be the turning point 30 years ago. This was equivalent to the 1923 turning point in a basket of currencies back then. So the 2009 target was correct and this implies that the 2017 target should also be correct. This year 2017 will be just the beginning.

Collapse of the EU – Is it Inevitable?


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; The World Economic Conference was outstanding. Your theme that Europe was the focal point for the coming chaos has been proven valid with each passing day. You have mentioned this is the time that will begin the collapse in public confidence within the EU even surviving. I must ask. Do you believe if they call you in and followed everything you have said, is it just too late to save Europe?

Thank you so much


ANSWER: Unfortunately, I know how to restructure Europe so it would function, but I do not believe that would even be sufficient at this stage in the game. We have probably reached the point of no return. All that is now left is the crash and burn. Only then will society reform. I simply believe we crossed that line last year. We began a new declining cycle in 2008 and that was the peak in the euro as well. The start of the real decline in the euro where mainstream capital begins to question when negative rates can really reverse or stimulate the economy unfolds after 2016.202. This comes into play March 13/14, 2016. This is not my personal opinion. This is just the modeling.

This seems to be so important that we will try to put together a video on this matter.

Is The Pending Euro Collapse on Target From Our 2011 Forecast of 2016.202?

Draghai Euro Crisis

The euro crisis appears to be unfolding right on target rather amazingly. Our target was published in “The Rise and Fall of the Euro” back in 2011. The target for the collapse in confidence was 2016.202. This comes into play March 13/14, 2016. It is rather amazing that we can target a specific event within time, years in advance, and watch these things unfold. This illustrates that TIME remains everything and humanity repeats a process that results in the same response over and over again throughout history. This also demonstrates that our forecasting is not based upon OPINION. With the euro unable to reach 116 of a rebound, this does not look very good in the next few weeks.

Here is what we published in that report:



From a timing perspective, the Bretton Woods System actually began with the operational start of the IMF on March 1, 1947 (1947.164). The euro began officially on January 1, 1999 (1999.002). The birth of the euro essentially completed the 51.6-year cycle between 1947 and 1999. The collapse of the euro appears to be due no later than 17.2 years from its birth, making the ideal target 2016.202, just 23.5 weeks ideally AFTER the peak on this current Economic Confidence Model wave 2015.75.

*COMPLETE* The Coming European Revolution

*COMPLETE* The Coming European Revolution


I have warned that 2017 will be the political year from hell. What I am illustrating here is the link between a sovereign debt crisis and the Revolutionary Cycle. In 1933, Roosevelt came to power in the USA and turned the country toward socialism. That same year, 1933, brought Hitler and Mao to power. So 1934 was the revolutionary year. Such revolutions do not always bring blood in the streets. The next one is due in 2020 and we should see the system we currently live under go completely upside-down.

The revolutions of 1848 were essentially a democratic movement and an uprising against the political elite. In 1848, Karl Marx published “The Communist Manifesto” with Friedrich Engels, and was exiled to London as a result. In London, where he lived the remainder of his life, he wrote the first volume of Das Kapital”. This undoubtedly influenced the revolutions that opened the door to communism/socialism. This also inspired the collapse of the old feudal structures and created independent national states. The revolutionary wave began in France in February 1848 when the French monarchy was overthrown. Communism actually began in France as a “commune” where people lived in one shared community with no individual property rights. It was the French who convinced Marx that communism would work better than just socialism, which he had advocated initially.

This 1848 revolution spread as a contagion, similar to what the American Revolution had done during the previous century. The contagion of 1848 spread to most of Europe and parts of Latin America. In total, it impacted over 50 countries. This was by no means a coordination or cooperation between various revolutionary trends around Europe.


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Market Manipulation Confusion

Market Manipulation Confusion

QUESTION: You say that long-term manipulations are impossible while short-term manipulations have been the focus of the bankers. Do you mean to say that not even governments can manipulate the economy perpetually? Are central banks buying US equities to manipulate the US stock market higher? It would seem that the Fed would then be accused of creating a bubble. What is going on?

Thank you.


ANSWER: Ever since Marx, the Age of “New Economics” as Volcker put it came to an end with the collapse of Bretton Woods and the Crash of 1974. Of course governments have tried to manipulate society and the economy. All governments operate out of their self-interest and they impose punishment as their weapon. They have falsified the statistics, revised them routinely especially CPI because they learned that everything was indexed to CPI so if you reduce the CPI you cut benefits without having to confront the people. After 1980, they removed real estate and replace it with rents using the argument that the former was investment not cost of living.


The entire game of manipulating society is to maintain their power. They historically will do whatever they need to do to achieve that goal. They routinely manipulate the truth using the press. Nobody will report that the Clintons not merely removed ALL restraints against the banks from Intrastate Banking to Glass-Steagall, but they also make student loans non-dischargable in bankruptcy at the bankers’ request so they could securitize them. Nobody will bring that up about Hillary because she is the favorite of the press. They attack Ben Carson and Trump all the time.

There is a HUGE difference from claiming these private people or governments CANmanipulate everything indefinitely and realizing that no matter who they are they CANNOT perpetually manipulate society or the economy. If the former is true, then there would be no crash and burn; just a flat-line. Sorry, people may not like that statement, but there is no proof that ANYTHING has been perpetually suppressed indefinitely.


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The ECM Turning Point — Sept. 30/Oct. 1 — Guns & War?

The ECM Turning Point — Sept. 30/Oct. 1 — Guns & War?

The unleashing of Russian firepower in Syria in support of the Syrian government came precisely on the day of the Economic Confidence Model. I have come to learn from observing this model that major world events, whatever the major focus may be, appear to line up with the ECM.


This target has been huge for us given that we have TWO WAR CYCLE MODELS: (1) civil unrest that leads to revolution, and (2) international war. It is sort of like the Blood Moon stuff insofar as it does not line up so easily. The main convergence of the War Cycle between both models began to turn in 2014. The economic war against Russia imposing sanctions began on March 6, 2014 (2014.178) when Obama signed Executive Order 13660 that authorizes sanctions on individuals and entities responsible for violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. The next day, this order was followed by Executive Order 13661, which claimed that Russia had undermined the democratic processes. On March 20, 2014, Obama issued a new Executive Order: “Blocking Property of Additional Persons Contributing to the Situation in Ukraine”. This order expanded the scope of the two previous orders to the Government of the Russian Federation; it included its annexation of Crimea and its use of force in Ukraine, which the U.S. claimed was a threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States. Then on April 28, Obama imposed more sanctions on Russia.

The third round of U.S. sanctions on Russia began from October into December 2014 over the turning point. On October 3, 2014, Joe Biden said, “It was America’s leadership and the president of the United States insisting, oft times almost having to embarrass Europe to stand up and take economic hits to impose costs.” The EU imposed sanctions on December 18, 2014, which banned some investments in Crimea and halted support for the Russian Federation Black Sea exploration of oil and gas.

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The ECM Turning Point 2015.75 – The Start of a Trend is Now

The ECM Turning Point 2015.75 – The Start of a Trend is Now

I was in Barcelona and was asked by many did I think the pro-independence parties in Spain’s Catalonia region would actually win. I told them it was inevitable for this is the global trend in motion. The vote for Catalonia is in – the separatists have won an absolute majority in regional elections. It looks as though the separatist alliance and a smaller party won 72 seats in the 135-seat regional parliament. They have declared that this will now allow them to declare independence from Spain unilaterally within 18 months.

The Spanish central government in Madrid has pledged to block any unilateral independence moves in court. Why? Politicians are no different than kings, dictators, or emperors. This is not about what the people want, it is all about maintaining power.

This vote is just the BEGINNING of the separatist movement around the world. Centralized government is dying. Society has always swung back and forth between centralized government and regional government. Once a centralized government grabs power, it will always expand until it consumes all power.

This is why I say that TAXES ARE NO LONGER NECESSARY. Money is no longer a commodity and the value of any currency depends entirely upon faith. Even gold has no value unless you believe someone else will accept it from you at some mutual agreed value. This is also why money cannot be a store of value for it requires ending the business cycle and life itself.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
In progress...

Olduvai II: Exodus
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