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U.S. Shale Braces For Brutal Earnings Season

October 30, 2019

U.S. Shale Braces For Brutal Earnings Season A lot of big names will report third quarter earnings this week, and the results are expected to be worse than the same period in 2018. The timing comes as the shale sector is facing somewhat of a reckoning. After years of price volatility – with more downs […]

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FedEx Is Talking As If A Global Recession Has Already Begun – And The Numbers Back That Up

March 20, 2019

FedEx Is Talking As If A Global Recession Has Already Begun – And The Numbers Back That Up “Slowing international macroeconomic conditions” is just a fancy way to say that the global economy is in big trouble.  For months, I have been warning that economic conditions are deteriorating, and we just keep getting more confirmation that […]

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This Is What A Pre-Crash Market Looks Like

November 13, 2017

This Is What A Pre-Crash Market Looks Like The only other times in our history when stock prices have been this high relative to earnings, a horrifying stock market crash has always followed.  Will things be different for us this time?  We shall see, but without a doubt this is what a pre-crash market looks […]

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The Curious Case of Missing the Market Boom

October 13, 2017

The Curious Case of Missing the Market Boom  Rembrandt Old man with a beard 1630“The Cost of Missing the Market Boom is Skyrocketing”, says a Bloomberg headline today. That must be the scariest headline I’ve seen in quite a while. For starters, it’s misleading, because people who ‘missed’ the boom haven’t lost anything other than […]

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A Murderous Complacency

February 4, 2017

A Murderous Complacency Dark omens are circling everywhere in today’s markets murder: a flock of crows ~ Miriam-Webster dictionary Many view the appearance of crows as an omen of death because ravens and crows are scavengers and are generally associated with dead bodies, battlefields, and cemeteries, and they’re thought to circle in large numbers above sites where […]

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Time to Get Real: Part I

September 10, 2016

Time to Get Real: Part I In a world where fair value is a central bank veiled enigma it’s frankly a challenge to keep things real, but I’ll have a go at it in what will be a 3 part series covering central banks, the underlying fundamental picture, and a technical assessment of charts. In this part I’ll be covering […]

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Are We Entering an Earnings/Sales Recession?

January 12, 2016

Are We Entering an Earnings/Sales Recession? Are corporate profits due for a retest of the lower channel line? If so, what happens to equity valuations when corporate profits plummet? Is the U.S. economy in recession? Is it heading for recession? These questions can only be answered in hindsight, but it’s worth looking for clues to what […]

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“Risky Business”: Companies Are Now Funding Share Buybacks By Selling Bonds To Other Companies

September 26, 2015

“Risky Business”: Companies Are Now Funding Share Buybacks By Selling Bonds To Other Companies One of this year’s key narratives has been the degree to which US stocks have benefited from a perpetual, price insensitive bid. By that we of course mean corporate buybacks, which one might fairly characterize as having replaced the monthly flow […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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