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Europe’s Energy Crisis May Not End Until 2024

Europe’s Energy Crisis May Not End Until 2024

  • The EU gas storage units are nearly full giving some relief to fears of shortages
  • Challenges remain for the continent’s energy security as winter arrives
  • The challenges will persist into the winter of 2023-24.

The worst energy security fears of spring and summer as regards the coming winter in the European Union-EU, have been somewhat allayed. Earlier this year when war broke out in Ukraine and it became clear that the conflict would drag on for months, if not years, the EU appeared perilously in danger of a winter “Polar-Geddon,” as cold air gripped the continent. Largely forgotten and retired gas storage caverns, that hadn’t been filled in the expectation of a steady supply from Russia via the Nordstream I and II pipelines, suddenly were thrust front and center into the public eye.  Troubles often come in twos. The next shoe to drop was the deflation of expectations of much of the EU electric grid base load being met by wind and solar farms, when the elements refused to cooperate. Beginning in the middle of last year, it was noted that the wind wasn’t blowing and the output of solar farms was less than predicted. These two events appeared ready to converge upon the EU and presenting it with a stark, and chilly future for the winter of 2022-23.

As is often the case, the fullness of time alleviated the worst fears as energy leaders in the countries that make up the EU, sprang into action. They turned to Norway for an additional 90 bn cubic meters of gas to begin filling the storage caverns. The infrastructure was in place, it was just a matter of price…

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Why U.S. Shale Won’t Go To War With OPEC+

Why U.S. Shale Won’t Go To War With OPEC+

  • OPEC+ will be very happy with where oil prices currently are and is unlikely to change its course anytime soon
  • The U.S. does have the ability to increase production, but U.S. shale does not have support from either the government or shareholders to boost production significantly
  • The two bearish variables that could drag prices down in the near term are a strong dollar and the continuation of inventory builds

For years, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s economy has suffered from low oil prices. Since 2014 when it increased supplies to try and break American shale producers, Saudi Arabia has had to struggle with a flooded market. Its cash reserves have been drawn down by hundreds of billions and it had to sell a small percentage of its prize asset, Saudi Aramco. At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plan fell behind in its lofty goals of diversifying its economy. I discussed this at some length in a prior Oilprice article. Now with the price of Brent – the benchmark against which Saudi Arabia prices its production – finally back above the $80 mark, the Kingdom is beginning to refill its coffers. So it was no great surprise when the Saudis and the Russians, the two principal members of the OPEC+ cartel, roundly rejected a demand from President Biden to increase production to ease the world’s energy crisis.

Up to this point, there had been some lingering concern on the part of OPEC+ that too high a price would reinvigorate the shale industry that had finally come to heel in early 2020. Restraint on the part of shale drillers since then has encouraged them that a new “war” for market share won’t be the result…

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It’s Too Late To Avoid A Major Oil Supply Crisis

It’s Too Late To Avoid A Major Oil Supply Crisis

There are a number of observable trends in oil supplies and by extension prices, presently. I am going to discuss one of them in this article. A lack of capital investment in finding new supplies of oil and gas. A favorite analogy of mine comes to mind, the ship is nearing the dock. In nautical parlance that means the time for course corrections is at an end. So we shall see if that is the case for oil. The massive “ship” that is world oil demand is on an unalterable collision with supplies that will have profound implications for consumers. This key metric reveals what the future is likely to hold for our energy security as the world continues to recover from the virus to those who will listen. The level of drilling and by extension capital investment is insufficient and has been for a number of years to sustain oil production at current levels. It’s no secret that even with the lower break-even costs for new projects thanks to cost-cutting by the industry the last few years, oil extraction is a capital-intensive business. The chart below from WoodMac, an energy consultancy, shows just how severe the decline in capex has been.

WSJ

The message to oil and gas companies has been pretty clear from the market, investment funds like Blackrock seeking green “purity” in the allocation of financing of new energy sources, and government edicts mandating carbon intensity reduction across the entire swath of society, and a transformation to renewable energy, that new supplies of oil and gas are not wanted.

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The Iran-China Axis Is A Fast Growing Force In Oil Markets

The Iran-China Axis Is A Fast Growing Force In Oil Markets

One of the things that doesn’t get a lot of discussion in the press is the under-the-table relationship Iran and China have had when it comes to oil. At first glance, they wouldn’t seem to have a lot in common. One is a theocracy with a radical view of non-believers and the other is probably the only example of a successful communist dictatorship since this form of government was created. But, if you look a little deeper they have a couple of things that align their mutual interests strongly. The first is they are both absolute dictatorships, meaning the institutions of government and national policies can be changed at the whim of those at the top. The second thing they have in common, and this is the main takeaway, both countries have serious geopolitical issues with the United States.

Iran suffers from years of sanctions imposed primarily by the U.S. to compel them to comply with U.N. resolutions regarding their atomic program. China views this century as the one in which they displace America as the world’s dominant Super Power. The place where these two authoritarian government’s worldviews align is in their opposition to the U.S.

It’s worth noting China’s apparent success has been funded by western economies over the last 75-years, thanks to our desire to buy everything as cheaply as possible. In that time, China has become the manufacturing center for the world and amassed immense wealth in doing so. The pandemic has caused a rethinking of the wisdom of outsourcing strategic commodities to despotic regimes, but for now, if you buy something other than food odds are it was made in China.

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Why Fracking Activity Hasn’t Increased As Oil Prices Recovered

Why Fracking Activity Hasn’t Increased As Oil Prices Recovered

It’s been a long dry spell in the Permian. Shale drilling and completions activity has collapsed to levels not seen since before 2000 (as far back as records are kept). That was the year shale activity first began to pick up from essentially nil and hit all-time peaks in 2008. With occasional ebbs and flows, it had gradually drifted down to the start of the current calamity, where active rigs stood at a somewhat healthy 805 rigs turning to the right. 

Fracking has also taken a commensurate dive over the last eight months, defying the conventional wisdom that as prices began to improve, activity would increase. It hasn’t happened in either case. Why?

Driven by low prices not seen much in modern history, formerly high-flying shale drillers like Chesapeake Energy have gone bankrupt. The service providers who do the actual work like Halliburton, (NYSE:HAL), Schlumberger, (NYSE:SLB) have written off tens of billions worth of fracking-related equipment, closed facilities and laid off thousands of workers.

Much of the expansion from 2016 onward was fueled by growth at any cost mindset in the drillers, and aided by bankers willing to accept ever-increasing estimates for the value of reserves. In 2018 much of that laissez-faire mentality in the boardrooms of the drillers and in the vaults of the bankers came to an abrupt halt as profits and cash flow were demanded. That was the moment shale activity began to falter numerically, while at the same time, a miracle was taking place. Production grew from advances in technology and a deeper understanding of key reservoirs to record levels.

EIA-STEO

Peaking at nearly 13 mm BOE in March of this year, a failure of OPEC+ nations to agree on production cuts that same month, led oil to begin a precipitous decline in price.

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The Oil Wells That Will Never Recover

The Oil Wells That Will Never Recover

It is very common today to read about shutting-in of producing oil and gas wells to reflect the reality there are fewer and fewer places to store oil right now. An old oilfield maxim-the cheapest storage is in the ground. It wasn’t coined to meet the criteria that are extant today as regards surface storage limitations, but rather to reflect costs of production versus sales prices. As we are all learning though, these two scenarios are very much related.

I get a lot of questions from readers of my articles, and students in my Reservoir Drill-In Fluids design classes about what happens with oil and gas wells that are shut-in. As discussed, there is a lot of this going on right now due to the oil glut we are experiencing. That answer is generally, that there are definite problems associated with doing this, but it’s not guaranteed they will occur in every instance. Sometimes you just get lucky. More often than not though, the sub-surface gremlins that reside in oil and gas reservoirs are going to get you. There is a reason that service companies earn billions of dollars annually pumping stuff down wells to fix perceived problems with production. So the question before us now is what are some of the mechanisms that cause problems restoring production to oil and gas wells after they have been shut-in?

One thing that can happen to oil and gas wells when they are shut in after being on production is a change in wettability.  We will discuss ‘wettability’ in some detail in this article, but essentially amount to the surface wetting condition of the discrete particles of sand and other constituents that comprise the rock in oil and gas reservoirs. Water coning is one frequent contributor to this problem.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Marcellus Shale

Marcellus Shale

Marcellus

There have been some signs the shale boom that re-energized America’s domestic energy industry a few years back, might be entering a maturing phase of its development. A phase where weaker players would hit a debt wall or be bought out at discounted value. A phase where, companies with cash who might have felt shale plays were too frothy at present levels, and had stayed on the sidelines waiting for the “froth” to dissipate. Biding their time. Now you can now almost hear the knives on the whetstone.

Beginning in 2019 these signs began to take shape in the massive retrenchment of the service industry that powered shale growth. Companies like Halliburton, (HAL) and Schlumberger, (SLB) threw in the towel and began to take charges against earnings, and layoff hundreds of staff.

This trend took on a real and tangible face when in a recent filing Chevron (CVX) said it would write down and put on the auction block its Marcellus shale assets. Assets it acquired from Atlas Energy in 2011 for $3.2 bn.

In the third quarter, 2019 conference call where this news was released to analysts, Michael Wirth, Chairman and CEO of Chevron commented-

“Mr. Wirth said Chevron must be selective about its investments moving forward, focusing on oil-rich regions like the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico.” – WSJ

According to CVX, not all shale is created equal. Let’s make a note of that! My job as an oil industry expert is to dig a little deeper and see if we can determine just what drove this decision.

The Marcellus vs. The Permian

Why is Chevron abandoning the Marcellus for the Permian? Let’s take a look at the isopach maps for both. In the graphic for the Marcellus, noted as Figure 2, you can see it is a relatively thin structure over most of its extent. And thins progressively the farther west it goes. The EIA comments thusly about production in the Marcellus:

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The Real Reason Behind The Next Oil Squeeze

The Real Reason Behind The Next Oil Squeeze

Rig

The last quarter has seen increased volatility in oil prices, an increase that I attribute to the growing tensions in international markets as fears of a global trade war intensify. The headlines seem to get starker by the day, and markets loathe this type of uncertainty.

(Click to enlarge)

Source

The intent of this article is to provide some guidance as to where oil prices may be headed in the near term. I think there are some key drivers at play here and will discuss them in some detail in the rest of this article.

Supply and Demand

One of the reasons for the big energy depression that hit in mid-2014 was an oversupply caused by Saudi Arabia ramping up production to drive prices down. They had several goals in doing this as has been discussed in countless articles, but chief among them was the desire to take high cost barrels off the market. Their primary targets were the American frac machine in North America, and deepwater production that was grabbing an increasing share of big IOC dollars.

This worked fairly well over the short run, as energy producers outside Saudi were unprepared. For most of 2016, the frackers in America retooled their portfolios and improved practices, cutting average well costs down to where they were economic with $40-50-dollar oil. U.S. shale was back in business.

The deepwater business is still struggling to regain its momentum.

(Click to enlarge)

Figure-1

Demand is likely to increase for the foreseeable future though, with an average annual increase of about 1.6mm BOPD for the years covered in the Global Supply and Demand Chart above (2013-2018). The upward slope continues through 2019 at about the same rate of increase.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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