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A Global Liquidity Crisis Is Underway

August 17, 2021

I’ve been analyzing currency wars for years. In fact, I’ve written a book called Currency Wars, so I have some expertise in the subject.

A new front in the currency wars is emerging, but it has not yet erupted into blatant currency manipulation. That will probably come in early 2022.

First, we’ll likely pass through a major market disruption that will force the dollar significantly higher against other major currencies. When that disruption becomes acute and the strong dollar becomes painful for U.S. exports and export-related jobs, the U.S. Treasury will take steps to weaken the dollar.

Let’s unpack that forecast a bit.

The world has been in a currency war since 2010. That’s when then-President Obama set out to weaken the dollar in order to provide stimulus to the U.S. economy in the aftermath of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis.

The White House and the Treasury knew a weaker dollar would hurt growth in Europe and Japan, but it didn’t matter. The U.S. is the largest economy in the world. If the U.S. goes into recession, it takes the rest of the world with it.

The mission of weakening the dollar was critical to avoid another U.S. recession so soon after the 2007 – 2009 recession. Europe would have to suffer so that the U.S. and the world did not suffer more.

Truce in the Currency Wars

The policy worked. The U.S. dollar hit an all-time low on the Fed’s broad trade-weighted index in August 2011. Not surprisingly, this coincided with gold hitting a then all-time high. The euro surged, and the U.S. economy got the boost it needed.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Mauldin: We Are On The Brink Of The Second “Great Depression.”

November 29, 2019

Mauldin: We Are On The Brink Of The Second “Great Depression.”

You really need to watch this video of a recent conversation between Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones. Their part is about the first 40 minutes.

In this video, Ray highlights some problematic similarities between our times and the 1930s. Both feature:

a large wealth gap
the absence of effective monetary policy
a change in the world order, in this case the rise of China and the potential for trade wars/technology wars/capital wars.

He threw in a few quick comments as their time was running out, alluding to the potential for the end of the world reserve system and the collapse of fiat monetary regimes.

Maybe it was in his rush to finish as their time is drawing to a close, but it certainly sounded a more challenging tone than I have seen in his writings.

Currency Wars

It brought to mind an essay I read last week from my favorite central banker, former BIS Chief Economist William White.

He was warning about potential currency wars, aiming particularly at the US Treasury’s seeming desire for a weaker dollar. Ditto for other governments around the world. He believes this is a prescription for disaster.

One possibility is that it might lead to a disorderly end to the current dollar based regime, which is already under strain for a variety of both economic and geopolitical reasons. To destroy an old, admittedly suboptimal, regime without having prepared a replacement could prove very costly to trade and economic growth.

Perhaps even worse, conducting a currency war implies directing monetary policy to something other than domestic price stability. There ceases to be a domestic anchor to constrain the expansion of central bank balance sheets.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Punishing Consequences of Global Currency Wars, Visualized

October 7, 2019

The Punishing Consequences of Global Currency Wars, Visualized

As I’ve traveled throughout Asia over the past decade, I’ve noticed that the punishing consequences of global currency wars, in which Central Bankers have greatly devalued the purchasing power of all currencies around the world, can be observed not just when spending money to purchase goods and services, but also in the visual form of these currencies as well. For example, Hong Kong used to have a ten dollar note, but when I visited Hong Kong within the past decade, I noted that the ten dollar note had gone extinct, replaced by Central Bankers with a ten dollar coin. The first time I visited Malaysia, their half dollar coin, called a 50 sen coin, was a large silvery coin (though it contained zero real silver), and the last time I visited, I noticed that the large half dollar silver colored coin had been reduced to a small half dollar gold colored coin (though obviously, it contained zero real gold).

hong kong dollar devaluation — Hong Kong dollar devaluation

malysian ringgit devaluation — visual evidence of shrinking Malaysian ringgit purchasing power

There are a number of reasons for Central Bankers’ decisions to radically alter currency appearance during periods of massive purchasing power devaluation that are the consequences of global currency wars. One is merely for psychological reasons. Obviously, one expects greater purchasing power from a plastic/fabric cash note then from a coin, so by converting a cash note into a coin, bankers automatically decrease the people’s expectations of what that denomination should be able to buy. As far as magically shrinking a large coin into a small coin, the same psychology is at play here. Since larger coins have greater purchasing power than smaller coins as a near universal trait among all currencies in every nation, when bankers shrink a coin, they again decrease the people’s expectations of its purchasing power. A third trick used by Central Bankers is simply to keep printing cash notes of larger denominations.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Currency Wars Have Entered the Next Phase, Gold and Silver Will Move Higher

August 11, 2019

Currency Wars Have Entered the Next Phase, Gold and Silver Will Move Higher

Gold is trading solidly above the $1500 mark at the time of writing, and I believe we are only just getting started. The currency wars are back in full swing, and they will be more intense than ever.

The United States government, ironically, labeled China a currency manipulator for the first time since 1994, marking a severe uptick in their rhetoric against the Chinese government, as the trade wars continue to spiral out of control with seemingly no end in sight.

Many simply waved this move off as nothing more than what it initially appeared to be: jawboning with no true ramifications behind it. However, others see it as a blatant threat by the U.S. administration against China, as the last time this language was used twenty-five years ago was when China was placed on a currency blacklist.

Some were surprised by this move, as they see it as an overreaction, fearing that we have now moved into another phase of the ongoing currency wars that have bubbled behind the scenes for years—currency wars that are now in plain sight for all to see.

Unfortunately, this should come as no surprise to anyone, as President Trump stated back in 2016 that he fully intended to label China a “currency manipulator”, a statement that was laughed off until now.

This move comes on the heels of a Fed interest rate cut in which the Fed Chief, Jerome Powell, lowered rates by 0.25%, citing fears of a weakening global economy and ongoing trade wars.

Of course, China is far from the only currency manipulator in the world, as countries are constantly “racing to the bottom” in an attempt to lower the value of their currencies. This increases their competitiveness on the international markets by artificially making the prices of their goods lower.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Sales of Physical Gold Explode as the Currency Wars Continue to Unfold

August 4, 2018

Sales of Physical Gold Explode as the Currency Wars Continue to Unfold

Trade wars are erupting, scandals are unfolding and now the United States is entering into the much prophesied currency wars that many experts have predicted was coming for years.

The United States and China, who continue to hold out against American tariffs, are entering into a quickly accelerating downward spiral.

Already the US government has ordered a massive $34 Billion worth of tariffs on Chinese goods entering into the United States, while at the same time, China has fired back shots of their own, issuing tariffs of their own kind.

As predicted, this would be far from the last that we would see, as now, we are learning today that President Trump plans on increasing tariffs by an additional 25% , up from the previous 10%.

This equates to a stunning $200 Billion worth of tariffs on Chinese goods, attempting to enter the United States marketplace.

This drastic increase in tariffs comes on the heels of a significant decrease in the value of the Yuan, which essentially has circumvented the previous tariffs placed by President Trumps administration .

These actions, and China’s willingness to devalue their currency proves just how serious they are about winning this currency war, while at the same time, so too does Trump’s acceleration in additional tariffs.

Just how low China is willing to take the Yuan is yet to be seen, as are the unintended consequences of taking such a drastic action.

Already, markets, especially those in China, are experiencing significant turbulence, as they corrected sharply lower.

Meanwhile, markets in the West were more optimistic in their ability to see this trade war through, as Apple surged higher, pulling the broader markets up, along with it.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold Leaving US Vaults: Signs of Upcoming Currency War and Armed Conflict

April 26, 2018

Gold Leaving US Vaults: Signs of Upcoming Currency War and Armed Conflict

The Turkish government has made the decision to repatriate all of its gold reserves that are currently housed in the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). Overall Turkey was storing 220 tonnes, valued at $25.3 billion, in the US, which it repossessed on April 19, 2018.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has toughened his stance against the US dollar (USD), declaring that international loans should be made in gold instead of the American currency. Ankara is seeking to reduce dependence on the US financial system. The gold’s homecoming was partly prompted by the US threats to impose sanctions if Turkey goes through with the signed deal to purchase Russian S-400 missile defense systems.

This is a dramatic move reflecting an international trend. Venezuela repatriated its gold from the US in 2012. In 2014, the Netherlands also retrieved its 122.5 tonnes of gold that were stored in US vaults. Germany brought home 300 metric tonnes of gold stashed in the United States in 2017. It took Berlin four years to complete the transfers. Austria and Belgium have reviewed the possibility of taking similar measures.

Few people believe the US Treasury’s assurances that the 261 million ounces (roughly 8,100 tonnes) in official gold reserves that are stored in Fort Knox and other places are fully audited and accounted for. The Federal Reserve has never been fully and independently audited. The pressure for a full, independent audit of all US gold reserves has always been resisted by the government and in Congress. Nobody knows if the gold is really there. What if the vaults turn out to be empty? It’s wiser to bring your gold home while you can, rather than to just keep on wondering.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Currency Wars Erupt, We Have Reached the Point of No Return

April 7, 2018

Currency Wars Erupt, We Have Reached the Point of No Return

It is happening, and it cannot be stopped.

The Currency Wars that have been discussed at length by many precious metals experts for years are here, and there is now no turning back.

As I have previously discussed, these wars have been ongoing for much of the last decade, if not longer. However, it has remained largely a “gentleman’s” war, with neither side wishing to expose their hand too much.

Now, with the increased rhetoric coming from the Trump administration, things have turned red hot. Shots are being fired back and forth on an almost daily basis.

President Trump has imposed numerous tariffs on Chinese goods entering the United States. The first was $50 billion worth of tariffs, to which China swiftly responded in kind, imposing $50 billion worth of their own tariffs on American imports such as soybeans and small aircrafts.

As expected, President Trump would not let this stand, and he is now discussing an additional $100 billion worth of tariffs on Chinese goods. This action would, of course, be answered with a likewise response from China.

As we can already see, these actions will have a ripple effect through not only the Chinese and US economies, but the entirety of the West, as these countries are two of the largest importers / exporters in the world.

These increased hostilities show no sign of abating and are likely to increase from this point out. Neither side is willing to back down and show weakness. As a result, stock markets have corrected sharply, proving that they too prescribe to my assumption.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hidden No More, The Currency Wars Take Center Stage

March 24, 2018

Hidden No More, The Currency Wars Take Center Stage

The market stands on a sinkhole, waiting for the next feather to drop. A feather that will bring down the system and send us into another economic crisis that will make the 2008 crash look like an opening act.

For years, I and many others within the precious metals space have written about a hidden war unfolding behind the scenes. To those with wide open eyes, you can see it, you can feel it. I am speaking of the currency and trade wars that Jim Rickards has written extensively about in many of his books—and now, things have ratcheted up to a whole new level.

Over the course of the past week, the jawboning from the US government has turned into action, and they have placed a number of trade tariffs on China . This is part of a campaign promise that President Trump made, and it appears he intends to keep it, no matter how much it might “rock the boat.”

These steps caught many investors off guard, including seasoned market veterans, as they have been so used to the government making bold statements but never following through with any real action.

Not this time. And the stock market is reflecting this new reality.

Chinese markets were sent for a roller coaster of a ride yesterday, dropping by 3-5% throughout the day, with key stocks dropping over 10% alone. A sea of red could be seen across the charts as the once-cold trade war turned hot.

Today, it is the US markets’ turn, as China fired back overnight, sending Western markets plummeting.

These actions sent the plunge protection team into full swing, resulting in this morning’s pre-open bounce . Unfortunately, I don’t see them being able to hold back the floodgates for too long, as this trade war will only accelerate from this point on. Neither side looks willing to back down.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

ECB minutes reveal fears over Trump currency wars

February 23, 2018

Euro zone concerns over the weakness of the dollar were laid bare in a set of European Central Bank minutes that highlighted fears the Trump administration was deliberately trying to engage in currency wars.

The account of the ECB’s January monetary policy meeting also reveals that its hawkish members pushed for a change in the bank’s communications, arguing economic conditions were now strong enough to drop a commitment to boost the quantitative easing programme in the event of a slowdown.

Mario Draghi, ECB president, last month hit out at US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin’s claim that a weak dollar was good for the American economy. Mr Draghi said Washington needed to uphold the rules of the international monetary system, which forbid nations from deliberately devaluing their currencies.

Mr Mnuchin’s remarks were seen as a signal that the US could ditch its strong dollar policy – which could lower euro zone exports and make it harder for the ECB to hit its inflation target.

Mr Mnuchin later said his comments were “completely consistent with what I’ve said before” and that he had merely made a “factual statement” that a weaker dollar would help the US on trade in the short term. President Donald Trump has also since reaffirmed the strong dollar policy.

The accounts of the ECB meeting on January 24th -25th, published on Thursday, show Mr Draghi’s fears were widely shared among the bank’s decision makers. “Concerns were…expressed about recent statements in the international arena about exchange rate developments and, more broadly, the overall state of international relations,” the account said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

ECB Minutes Reveal Fears About Currency Wars, Euro Slides

February 22, 2018

ECB Minutes Reveal Fears About Currency Wars, Euro Slides

There were two distinct reactions in the Euro to today’s ECB Minutes, released this morning.

At first, the EUR jumped following initial headlines that the ECB acknowledged that revisiting the guidance would be “part of a the regular reassessment” going forward, but noting that any changes are premature at this stage.

In this context, it was remarked that communication on monetary policy would continue to develop according to the evolving state of the economy in line with the ECB’s forward guidance, with a view to avoiding abrupt or disorderly adjustments at a later stage. However, changes in communication were generally seen to be premature at this juncture, as inflation developments remained subdued despite the robust pace of economic expansion.

* * *

The language pertaining to the monetary policy stance could be revisited early this year as part of the regular reassessment at the forthcoming monetary policy meetings. In this context, some members expressed a preference for dropping the easing bias regarding the APP from the Governing Council’s communication as a tangible reflection of reinforced confidence in a sustained adjustment of the path of inflation. However, it was concluded that such an adjustment was premature and not yet justified by the stronger confidence.

Predictably, this hawkish take prompted a kneejerk move higher in the EUR as algos bought the EUR.

However, what traders focused on next was a rather explicit ECB concern over the weakness of the dollar, as the statement once again highlighted fears that the US administration was deliberately trying to engage in currency wars, something which Mario Draghi famously remarked on during the Q&A in the last ECB press conference, when asked for his response to Mnuchin’s statement.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

If Currency Wars Have Indeed Started, This Is What Comes Next

January 26, 2018

If Currency Wars Have Indeed Started, This Is What Comes Next

Even as overall volatility remains tame, things are rapidly changing in the world of currency trading where FX vol has spiked to the highest level since early October after this week’s dramatic FX rollercoaster which saw the US Treasury Secretary get this close to launching currency war, and required the verbal intervention of both (a rather angry) Mario Draghi and Donald Trump himself to normalize things, if only for the time being.

While some were quick to point out that what Mnuchin did with his “weak dollar” commentary was a dramatic reversal of decades of US “strong dollar” policy (which is nothing more than lip service as Hank Paulson showed so very well when he launched QE1 in 2008), others such as FX strategist Alan Ruskin saw a more innocuous explanation: as we noted earlier, he suggested that what you have here “is two officials who like a weak(er) USD in the short-term that will help the US trade accounts and support growth, albeit to the point where strong growth will eventually support a strong USD longer-term.”

In Alan’s view this is a way of saying that in the short-term a weak USD is good for US trade, and in the long-term a strong USD is good because it is indicative of strong growth a healthy economy. Still, Ruskin concedes that that this is clearly a very confusing message to convey and it’s unlikely to either be reported or understood correctly, which doesn’t really help the message.

And then there is the less subtle explanation: that trade wars have indeed broken out. That’s the assumption used by DB’s Masao Muraki, who today writes that it his view that the Trump Administration, having completed the tax reforms, will shift focus to trade policy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Back From Never Gone: CURRENCY WARS

February 26, 2017

Back From Never Gone: CURRENCY WARS

In the previous episode of the currency wars, a few years ago, the Euro-Dollar exchange rate was in the spotlight. This has now completely disappeared to the background and whilst the countries of the Eurozone must be pretty happy with the weak currency (which boosts the export and increases the demand for domestically produced goods), the United States are less than happy as it weakens the position of the country on the export market.

Source: Tradingeconomics

You might have missed it when the mass media were falling over themselves to crucify president Trump, but we had the impression currency wars, and protecting the position of the United States on the world market were pretty high on his ‘to do list’ after decades of huge trade deficits. As you can see on the next image, there clearly is a huge discrepancy in the trade numbers between China and the United States. A substantial trade deficit, which has been nipped in the bud by China using their hard dollars to purchase US Treasuries.

Source: Danske Bank

Whereas the president was definitely pointing fingers at China during his election campaign, he seems to have been softer after a recent call with the Chinese president.

Does this mean the USA and China are now best buddies again? Probably not. It’s far more likely the president has realized he won’t be able to get much done when he gets in a direct confrontation with China. His staff has now launched a ‘test balloon’ and widened the scope of the currency manipulation investigation. Instead of singling out China, the White House will now be using a more general approach, and has even singled out Germany.

Source: Danske Bank

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Precious Metals Conspiracy

April 11, 2016

The Precious Metals Conspiracy

Tricky and Dangerous Assumptions

For at least a few weeks now, we have noticed a growing drumbeat from a growing corps of analysts. Gold is going to thousands of dollars. And silver is going to outperform. Reasons given are myriad. Goldman Sachs apparently said to short gold, so if one assumes that the bank always advises clients to take the other side of its trades — a tricky and dangerous assumption at best — then one should buy gold.

Goild conspiracy A metallic conspirator and his flying factotum… Image via sceptic.com

Then there’s the change in ETFs, for example the Sprott Physical Silver Fund has had inflows and Sprott bought more silver. And there’s currency wars, money printing, negative interest rates, etc. Most of these stories are based in fact (well except the belief that Goldman’s research is always wrong).

However, they have little to do with the price of gold. The money supply has grown steadily since 2011 while the prices of gold and silver have not. Hell, the money supply has been growing since forever. And the price of gold has gone up as well as down.

Something tells us that this effort to draw in buyers is concerted. Certainly there has been an 8.4% increase in silver held in trust for SLV. This is the result of relentless buying of SLV shares. When buyers push up the price of SLV relative to the price of silver, that creates an arbitrage opportunity for Authorized Participants.

They buy silver metal, create SLV shares, and sell the newly issued shares. They can do that as much as they want while there’s a profit to do so. But of course this pushes down the price of SLV until it is very close to the price of silver. SLV is somewhere between metal and futures. It can be a speculative play on price, but it’s bought with less leverage and it can also be a long-term holding for many people.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What Keeps Neil Howe Up At Night: An Interview With The Author Of “The Fourth Turning”

October 14, 2015

What Keeps Neil Howe Up At Night: An Interview With The Author Of “The Fourth Turning”

“Underproduction, undercapacity, deflation, currency wars, demographics, falling birth rates” – those are the biggest fears which Fourth Turning author, and head of Saeculum Research Neil Howe, lays out in this interview excerpt courtesy of RealVision TV.

While Howe goes on an interesting tangent on the one topic that will surely be absent from all presidential debates, namely the fact that migration into the US is “actually in huge decline“, and that the largest immigrant group into the US is Asian (after all someone has to buy those luxury NYC condos), what is more interesting are Howe’s parallels of the current economic situation to the Great Depression: “whole areas of the world no longer having a global superpower, no longer having global institutions that enforce orders so you have these huge areas of failed states and power vacuums and regional authoritarian governments – that’s exactly what people saw in the 1930s and we’re seeing it now in Russia, China, Iran doing whatever they want.”

He continues:

“Another interesting economic parallel is the crisis of overvaluation: in the 1930s it was the gold standard, for southern Europe it’s the Euro, and for China they have a fixed rate regime that they’re attending to too little too late. It’s the nature of an authoritarian regime to always to do too little and too late. Everyone is too timid to tell the person in power “this is what you need to do.” I think China faces an absolute choice between a huge devaluation to restimulate its economy, because becoming competitive I think the carry trade is going to go and I think even domestic savings are going to flee. If they don’t do that they have very few options left at this point. They have $3.5 trillion of reserves – you’ll be amazed how quickly that goes. So that’s another parallel.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China and the dollar

October 11, 2015

China and the dollar

With the benefit of hindsight, the two-day devaluation of the yuan in mid-August might have been a masterstroke of strategy.

China executed a financial move that appeared to undermine its own position but instead created trouble for the US; how much is still to be played out. So was the devaluation a well-executed move against the dollar, or are the Chinese authorities as clueless as any other government?

For a clue about how the Chinese might approach these matters, I am indebted to Simon Hunt of Simon Hunt Strategic Services for drawing my attention to a speech by General Qiao Liang, the Peoples Liberation Army’s military strategist, delivered about six months ago. The General makes it clear that China’s external relationships are pursued through financial, not military means. China pits subtle tai chi against America’s brash pugilism. It is therefore quite possible that China’s August devaluation was planned and timed to undermine America’s financial position.

This possibility is disregarded by nearly all financial commentators, who have been fixated on the bursting of China’s credit bubble. This would be a major crisis for a western economy, but it allows China to reallocate economic resources from legacy industries towards the monumental task of developing Asia’s infrastructure with the promise of its future markets.

Regarding the August devaluation as designed to enhance the competitiveness of the Chinese currency is too simplistic. The way to look at it is China actually triggered a wide-spread revaluation of the dollar. By undermining US export markets, China has effectively taken control of America’s interest rate policy from the Fed. She has shown that China, not America, now sets the pace in the global economy. General Qiao made an interesting point in his speech: China’s Alipay alone settled more purchases by value in just one day over China’s “Valentine” holiday last November, than all US online and retail outlets over the three-day Thanksgiving holiday.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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