Home » Posts tagged 'currency reserves'

Tag Archives: currency reserves

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Catacylsm
Click on image to purchase

Post categories

Post Archives by Category

On The Edge Of Collapse: Turkish Lira Plummets As Central Bank Burns Through A Third Of Reserves

March 28, 2019

On The Edge Of Collapse: Turkish Lira Plummets As Central Bank Burns Through A Third Of Reserves

The Turkish lira resumed its plunge on Thursday following a sharp rebound on Tuesday when Turkish authorities unleashed an unprecedented assault on lira shorts, helping push the TRY briefly higher ahead of regional elections, after a disappointing reading on the central bank’s net FX reserves stoked fears that the country was even closer to a full-blown currency crisis than investors had feared, while local accounts continued to accumulate foreign currency after overnight swaps on the Turkish Lira collapsed to just 40% from a historic high around 1,338% on Tuesday.

After nearly a week of chaos that one trader described as unprecedented in his two decades in the market (“I’ve never seen a move like this in the 21 years I’ve been watching the market“), it appears President Erdogan has relented, and following a vocal outcry from the international community which was effectively trapped in lira positions, both long and short, after overnight swaps hit rates well above 1,000%, on Tuesday the swap plunged as low as 18.5%, in line with recent historical prints, and an indication that after doing everything in its power to squeeze shorts (and longs) the central bank appears to have capitulated.

As we reported previously, bankers and analysts at large international banks reported that Turkish lenders appeared unable or unwilling to provide lira in exchange for currency this week, in an attempt to prevent short selling. While Turkey’s banking association (TBB) on Wednesday night denied claims that the country’s lenders had been limiting or halting sales of lira to foreign banks, one London-based analyst told the FT on Tuesday that Turkish banks told him they had been ordered “not to lend even a single lira to foreign counterparties” That squeeze sent the cost of borrowing lira soaring for foreign banks and hedge funds, although as shown above, it has since tumbled.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China Accelerates Renewed Gold-Buying Spree “To Diversify Its Reserves”

February 12, 2019

China Accelerates Renewed Gold-Buying Spree “To Diversify Its Reserves”

After China’s official gold reserves rose for the first time in around two years (since Oct 2016) in December, Beijing appears to have joined the global gold rush, increasing its gold reserves for the second month in a row in January to 59.94 million ounces.

As we previously noted, China has long been silent on its holdings of gold as many countries are turning away from the greenback.

The value the country’s holdings of the precious metal reached US$79.319 billion, increasing by more than $3 billion compared to the end of last year. 

China is also trying “to diversify its reserves” away from the greenback, according to Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at currency broker OANDA. The analyst told the South China Morning Post that the state of affairs in global politics, including a trade war with the US, are driving China’s interest to buy gold as a “safe haven hedge.” 

In January, China dropped to sixth place among the world’s largest holders of the yellow metal behind Russia. With its 67.6 million ounces of gold, Russia now stands in fifth place behind the US, Germany, France, and Italy.

Crucially, the size of the gold addition are far less important than the signaling effect – why did China decide now was the right time to publicly admit its gold reserves are rising?

After months of seeming stability in the yuan relative to gold, Q4 2018/Q1 2019 saw China seemingly allow gold to appreciate relative to the yuan

One wonders if Alasdair Macleod is on to something when he notes that if the yuan is to replace the dollar for China’s trade, officials will have to back it with gold…

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Which Emerging Markets Will Run Out Of Money First: Here Is The Answer

August 31, 2018

Which Emerging Markets Will Run Out Of Money First: Here Is The Answer

For years, in fact for the duration of the US dollar’s use as a global carry currency, Emerging Markets – especially those with a currency peg – were a welcome destination for yield starved US investors who found an easy source of yield differential pick up. All that came to a crashing halt first after the Chinese devaluation in 2015 which sent the dollar surging and slammed the EM sector, and then again in recent months when renewed strong dollar-inspired turmoil gripped the emerging markets, first due to idiosyncratic factors – such as those in Turkey and Argentina…

… and gradually across the entire world, as contagion spread.

And while many pundits have stated that there is no reason to be concerned, and that the EM spillover will not reach developed markets, Morgan Stanley points out that the real pain may lie ahead.

As the following chart from the bank’s global head of EM Fixed Income strategy, James Lord, shows, whereas returns have slumped across EM rates, outflows from the EM space have a ways to go before they catch down to the disappointing recent returns.

One can make two observations here: the first is that despite the equity rout, EM stocks (as captured by the EEM ETF) have a long way to go to catch down to EM bonds as shown by the Templeton EM Bond Fund (TEMEMFI on BBG).

The second, more salient point is that a key reason for the solid growth across emerging markets in recent years, has been the constant inflow of foreign capital, resulting in a significant external funding requirement for continued growth, especially for Turkey as discussed previously.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

As Petro-Yuan Looms, Bundesbank Adds Renminbi To Currency Reserves

January 15, 2018

As Petro-Yuan Looms, Bundesbank Adds Renminbi To Currency Reserves

Just days after China’s (denied) threat to slow/stop buying US Treasuries, and just days before the launch of China’s petro-yuan futures contract, Germany’s central bank confirmed it would include China’s Renminbi in its reserves.

The FT reports that Andreas Dombret, a member of Deutsche Bundesbank’s executive board, said at the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong on Monday that the central bank had “decided to include the RMB in our currency reserves”.

He said: “The RMB is used increasingly as part of central banks’ foreign exchange reserves; for example, the European Central Bank included the RMB [as a reserve currency].”

The Bundesbank’s six-member board took the decision to invest in renminbi assets in mid-2017, but it was not publicly announced at the time. No investments have been made yet; preparations for purchases are still ongoing.

The inclusion in the German central bank’s reserves basket underscored China’s increasing prominence in the global financial landscape, and reflected policies aimed at making the currency more freely tradable internationally.

Mr Dombret said:

“The notable development from the European point of view over the past few years has been the growing international role of the RMB in global financial markets.”

The offshore Yuan strengthened on the news overnight – pushing to its strongest in over 2 years…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180115_dollar1_0.png

And as Les Echoes reports, while the Bundesbank wants to integrate the yuan into its foreign exchange reserves, the Banque de France is already using it as a currency of diversification.

The Banque de France has raised a corner of the veil on its strategy of managing foreign exchange reserves.

“The foreign currency holdings remain overwhelmingly invested in US dollars, with diversification to a limited number of international currencies such as the Chinese renminbi.“

Which currency would you rather hold as a stable reserve?

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180115_dollar.png

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia Warns Washington: Confiscating Gold Reserves Would Be “Declaration Of Financial War”

November 29, 2017

Russia Warns Washington: Confiscating Gold Reserves Would Be “Declaration Of Financial War”

In a surprising, and unexpected warning – which seemingly came out of nowhere – Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov cautioned Washington yesterday that “If our gold and currency reserves can be arrested, even if such a thought exists, it would be financial terrorism.”

The comment appears to have been prompted by consideration of escalating US/EU sanctions which could ultimately impact Russia’s offshore held gold and reserves. If sanctions include the freezing of foreign accounts of the central bank, it would be equal to declaring financial war on Russia, Siluanov said, although he added that he considers such a scenario unlikely (for now).

After making the point that Russia’s budget is prepared for the possibility of tougher US/EU sanctions, RT reports that Siluanov warned if the west include the seizure of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves, it would be regarded as a “declaration of a financial war.”

According to Siluanov, the budget takes into account the risk of income shortfalls. The budget is based on oil prices at $40 per barrel, which is almost a third lower than the current price.

The budget “has a margin of safety in case of restrictions and sanctions.” It also includes losses incurred by a probable ban on investment in Russian government bonds for foreign funds. The US Treasury is currently considering such penalties.

“If we did not have a margin of safety, then it would be easy to weaken us. And then, our so-called friends would say – if you want to get help from the International Monetary Fund, you must do this and that,” said Siluanov.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Dying Petrodollar Ripples Through Markets As Asset Managers Bemoan Loss Of Saudi Bid

September 28, 2015

Dying Petrodollar Ripples Through Markets As Asset Managers Bemoan Loss Of Saudi Bid

One of the key things to understand about China’s liquidation of hundreds of billions in US paper is that far from being a country-specific phenomenon, it actually marks the continuation of something that’s been taking place in other emerging markets for some time.

As we outlined in “Why It Really All Comes Down To The Death Of The Petrodollar,” the forced sale of Beijing’s UST reserves is simply the most dramatic example of what Deutsche Bank has called “quantitative tightening.” For years, reserve managers in the world’s emerging economies worked to accumulate war chests of USD-denominated paper in an effort to ensure that in a crisis, they would have sufficient firepower to guard against speculative attacks on their currencies and/or accelerating capital outflows. Slumping commodity prices and the threat of a supposedly imminent Fed hike have conspired to put pressure on these reserves and outside of China, nowhere is this dynamic more apparent than in Saudi Arabia. Indeed it was the Saudis who dealt the deathblow to the great EM reserve accumulation.

By intentionally killing the petrodollar, Riyadh effectively ensured that the pressure on commodity currencies would continue unabated, but as we’ve documented exhaustively, that was and still is considered an acceptable outcome if it means bankrupting the US shale complex and securing market share. But for Saudi Arabia, this is all complicated by three things: 1) the necessity of preserving the lifestyle of everyday citizens, 2) spending associated with the proxy war in Yemen, and 3) defense of the riyal’s dollar peg. All of those factors have served to weigh heavily on the county’s already depleted petrodollar reserves, and if the “lower for longer” crude thesis plays out, Riyadh may see further pressure on its current and fiscal accounts which are now both squarely in the red.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Meet the bureaucrat who had the courage to tell the truth (and probably won’t have a job tomorrow)

February 20, 2015

Meet the bureaucrat who had the courage to tell the truth (and probably won’t have a job tomorrow)

It’s not very often that you hear a senior government official refer to their economic situation using the word ‘crisis’.

Yet with uncharacteristic bluntness of any government official anywhere, at least one senior Chinese government official is sounding the alarm bells.

And he would know.

Guan Tao oversees the foreign exchange of China’s $4 trillion stockpile of reserves, so he has an incredibly unique view of capital flows and currency movements in and out of the country.

Currency movements and capital flows are extremely interesting indicators.

They don’t necessarily tell you that there’s a problem. They tell you that people have figured out there’s a problem.

Look at Greece, for example.

The government is bankrupt, another default is looming, and the country is literally about to run out of money. It’s pretty obvious that there’s been a problem for a very long time.

But the central bank data in Greece now shows that roughly 8% of all customer deposits have vanished from the Greek banking system so far this year.

That’s an astonishing figure.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Turkey’s Central Bank Raises Ratio for FX Reserve Requirements – Bloomberg

January 4, 2015

Turkey’s Central Bank Raises Ratio for FX Reserve Requirements – Bloomberg.

Turkey’s central bank increased the foreign-currency reserve ratios required of banks and financing companies, after a month in which the lira was among the world’s worst-performing emerging-markets currencies.

The revision announced today is intended to make sure institutions can meet foreign-exchange liabilities. It would add approximately $3.2 billion to the central bank’s foreign currency reserves, the bank said in a statement on its website. The average reserve requirement ratio for foreign currency, now 11.7 percent, will rise to 12.8 percent, it said.

Turkish central bank Governor Erdem Basci warned Dec. 10 in Ankara that the bank would take measures against excessive short-term foreign currency borrowing by Turkish banks. The International Monetary Fund had urged Turkey to raise reserve requirements for foreign-currency liabilities in a report on Dec. 5, saying that reducing bank incentives to fund themselves in foreign currency would limit the risk of a balance-of-payments crisis.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
Click on image to read excerpts

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Click on image to purchase @ FriesenPress