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QUESTION #1: If Canada is not a dictatorship, how can Trudeau cancel the dollar? How can he do so in secret?

QUESTION #2: Why can’t Biden follow Trudeau and cancel the dollar?

ANSWER: The answer lies in the difference in history. Because the paper currency called bills-of-credit back then became worthless, the Framers of the Constitution expressly took into account currency. I have written before that when I was a market-maker in gold and one of the three largest in the country, the IRS walked in and declared me to be a bank and then I was supposed to report everyone who bought or sold gold in $10,000 amounts or more. They cited the Constitution saying that gold and silver were money thereby making me a bank because Nixon only closed the gold window, he never DEMONITIZED gold. So I was suddenly a bank in no need of such a license for the purposes of the IRS. Hence, I retired.

This raises an interesting question. Can Congress create a digital dollar constitutionally? The question of money was thus settled directly in the Constitution because each state had previously issued its own coinage and paper bills-of-credit (paper money).

Article 1 – The Legislative Branch
Section 10 – Powers Prohibited of States
<<Back | Table of Contents | Next>>

No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Loonie Tumbles As Bank Of Canada Capitulates

April 24, 2019

Loonie Tumbles As Bank Of Canada Capitulates

Add The Bank of Canada to the list of flip-flopping central banks as it has now fully abandoned its bias toward raising interest rates as the economy grapples with a slowdown, bringing its policy into line with the Fed.

“Governing Council judges that an accommodative policy interest rate continues to be warranted,” officials led by Governor Stephen Poloz said in the statement.
“We will continue to evaluate the appropriate degree of monetary policy accommodation as new data arrive.”

The Bank of Canada is keeping its key interest rate unchanged as it releases a downgraded 2019 growth forecast that includes a prediction the economy nearly came to a halt at the start of the year.

The Bank of Canada slashed its GDP growth forecast to 1.2% y/y in 2019, from 1.7% previous, and projecting growth of just 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2019.

The decision leaves the trend-setting rate at 1.75 per cent for a fourth-straight announcement – a pause that followed governor Stephen Poloz’s stretch of five hikes between mid-2017 and last fall.

The reaction makes sense – a sudden weakening in the Loonie…

And Canadian bond yields are tumbling…

Loonie Tumbles After Canadian Retail Sales Crumble

January 23, 2019

Loonie Tumbles After Canadian Retail Sales Crumble

Amid the absence of US macro data due to the shutdown, it seems Canada (and China) are making up for it – by crushing the goldilocks dream.

Canada retail sales fell 0.9% to C$50.4B in November, according to Statistics Canada (which did not need to ask the US for the data this time). This was well below the expected decline of 0.6% and Retail sales from August to October were all revised downwards.

Sales fell in 6 of 11 subsectors, representing 75% of total retail trade

Largest upside contributor on month was the general merchandise category, 0.20 percentage points
Largest downside contributor on month was the gasoline stations category, -0.53 percentage points

And the reaction was immediate weakness in the Loonie…

On the bright side, Cannabis sales total C$54 million in November.

Loonie Slumps As Bank Of Canada Folds On Economic Enthusiasm

December 5, 2018

Loonie Slumps As Bank Of Canada Folds On Economic Enthusiasm

Amid near-record-low Canadian crude prices and a housing crisis, The Bank of Canada appears to have finally given up its narrative that ‘everything is awesome’.

The BoC walked back much of its enthusiasm about the nation’s outlook in a decision that kept interest rates unchanged, spinning bad news as good by saying that the economy may have “additional room for non-inflationary growth.” Of course, if the economy was growing faster, the BOC would simply say that the economy is growing… well, faster or “near potential.”

Instead, holding rates unchanged at 1.75%, the BOC cited almost everything that has gone wrong:

moderating global growth,
a “materially weaker” outlook for the oil sector,
a faster-than-expected deceleration of inflation,
a drop in business investment and downward historical revisions to output

Following the latest central bank dovish relent, the USDCAD jumped 0.8% to ~1.3374 after touching highest (i.e. the CAD dropping the most) in more than five months on the cautious language, a dovish outlook that could change expectations for 2019 BOC rate hikes.

Even with the dovish undertones, the statement reiterated that rates will need to rise to “neutral range” – which like the Fed it has no idea what it is – within its discussion of recent downside risks, to wit:

“Governing Council continues to judge that the policy interest rate will need to rise into a neutral range to achieve the inflation target.”

Still, the generally less-confident tone is an acknowledgement of developments over the past few weeks that have cast doubt on the strength of the nation’s expansion and prompted investors to scale back the expected pace of future rate increases.

The final nail in the hawkish case coffin was the key shift in tone (red rectangle below) which notes that while the Canadian economy growing in line with expectations, “data suggest less momentum going into the fourth quarter.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Loonie Slides As Canadian Officials Reportedly Doubt NAFTA Deal Will Get Done

August 31, 2018

Loonie Slides As Canadian Officials Reportedly Doubt NAFTA Deal Will Get Done

Despite outwardly optimistic appearances from Canada’s Freeland, talks between Canadian and U.S. trade negotiators reportedly turned sour last night and Trudeau government officials are now expressing concern that a final NAFTA deal will not be concluded on Friday.

“That was a long, intensive conversation with Ambassador Lighthizer and his team. The atmosphere remains constructive. …We are making progress,” Ms. Freeland said after a session that ended at 8:30 p.m.

She returned at 10:15 p.m. for another meeting that lasted just five minutes. Ms. Freeland told reporters that she had “a couple things to say” to Mr. Lighthizer and she would meet him again Friday.

According to The Globe reports, USTR Lighthizer has refused to budge on eliminating Chapter 19 – which allows Ottawa to challenge punitive American tariffs on imports before binational panels – and refusing to keep current cultural protection provisions in a redrafted North America free-trade agreement.

Ms. Freeland, who said on Thursday a deal is possible, had offered the Americans concessions on increased U.S. dairy exports to Canada U.S. and on intellectual property, but Mr. Lighthizer was unwilling to offer any concessions of his own on the two key Canadian demands.

As The Globe reports so ominously:

There is now deep concern within the Canadian negotiating team that the talks which continue this morning will end in failure.

However, on the back of The Globe’s ‘sources’, the loonie is slipping lower – erasing all the early week hope-filled gains…

1.3050 seems like a line in the sand for the Loonie for now, any further negative headlines and a break of that level will push the canadian dollar notably lower.

Finally, we note that Citi points out that sources have been saying all sorts of things, with some suggesting there’s been enough progress.

Bank of Canada Hikes Rates By 25bps, Loonie Rises On Hawkish Take

July 11, 2018

Bank of Canada Hikes Rates By 25bps, Loonie Rises On Hawkish Take

The Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate by 25bps to 1.5%, in line with consensus estimates.

In justifying the move, the Bank said it expects the global economy to grow by about 3.75% in 2018 and 3.5% in 2019, adding that the US economy is proving stronger than expected, reinforcing market expectations of higher policy rates and pushing up the US dollar. It warned that this is “contributing to financial stresses in some emerging market economies” suggesting that Canada was dragged into the rate hikes rather than welcoming it.

In other words, the BOC hopes that demand from the U.S. will trump the drag on trade from tariffs the two neighbors, as well as the uncertainty over the future of Nafta.

It also noted that while oil prices have risen, the Canadian dollar is lower, reflecting broad-based US dollar strength and concerns about trade actions, noting that “the possibility of more trade protectionism is the most important threat to global prospects.”

Perversely, even as the BOC hiked rates, it warned that household spending is “dampened by higher interest rates and tighter mortgage lending guidelines.”

Curiously, despite market concerns, the BOC raised its Q2 GDP forecast to 2.8% from 2.5% previously, with Q3 seen at 1.5%; The bank also raised the potential output growth to 1.8% in 2018, and 1.9% in 2019 and 2020.

Commenting on the ongoing trade war with the US, the BOC estimates US tariffs on steel and aluminium will reduce level of real Canadian exports by 0.6%, with the impact expected to be felt in H2 2018. Meanwhile, Canadian counter measures estimated to reduce real imports by 0.6% starting Q3, while tariffs will temporarily boost inflation in Q3 2019.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Loonie Tumbles As Canadian Retail Sales Crashed In December

February 22, 2018

Loonie Tumbles As Canadian Retail Sales Crashed In December

But, but, but… it was Christmas!!

Canadian retail sales have come out and they are shockingly low – even after bad weather and higher rates on big ticket items had kept surveys particularly low for December.

The headline print was -0.8% MoM (expectations were for no change)

Worse still, sales ex autos plunged 1.8% MoM (against expectations of a 0.3% gain) – the biggest drop since Jan 2015…

As Citi notes, these numbers, while often volatile, were not expected to be a big mover, but the extent of the miss has triggered some activity in USDCAD, which has jumped up to 1.2736 already and may have more to run.

Loonie is at its weakest vs the dollar since 12/21…

Loonie Tumbles After Dovish Bank of Canada Hikes By 25bps, Warns Of NAFTA Uncertainty

January 17, 2018

Loonie Tumbles After Dovish Bank of Canada Hikes By 25bps, Warns Of NAFTA Uncertainty

As expected by a broad majority of economists, the Bank of Canada just hiked its overnight rate by 25bps to 1.25%, the first hike by a G-7 central bank in 2018.

In raising the rate, the BoC said that “recent data have been strong, inflation is close to target, and the economy is operating roughly at capacity” however in a dovish twist the BOC added that “as uncertainty about the future of NAFTA is weighing increasingly on the outlook, the Bank has incorporated into its projection additional negative judgement on business investment and trade.

From the bank’s forecasts:

In Canada, real GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 1.6 per cent in 2019, following an estimated 3.0 per cent in 2017. Growth is expected to remain above potential through the first quarter of 2018 and then slow to a rate close to potential for the rest of the projection horizon.

The central bank also sees the following key indicators:

CPI Inflation Y/Y:

2017 Q2:1.3%, last 1.3%
2017 Q3:1.4%, last 1.4%
2017 Q4:1.8%, last 1.4%
2018 Q1:1.7%

Real GDP Y/Y:

2017 Q2:3.6%, last 3.7%
2017 Q3:3.0%, last 3.1%
2017 Q4:3.0%, last 3.1%
2018 Q1:2.7%

However, what appears to have spooked traders is the general dovish context of the statement:

Looking forward, consumption and residential investment are expected to contribute less to growth, given higher interest rates and new mortgage guidelines, while business investment and exports are expected to contribute more. The Bank’s outlook takes into account a small benefit to Canada’s economy from stronger US demand arising from recent tax changes. However, as uncertainty about the future of NAFTA is weighing increasingly on the outlook, the Bank has incorporated into its projection additional negative judgement on business investment and trade.

As a result of the unexpected dovish addition, while the loonie initially kneejerked higher, it has since given up all gains and is now near the lows of the day.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Loonie Longs Are Set For A Painful Dose Of Reality”: Trader

December 14, 2017

“Loonie Longs Are Set For A Painful Dose Of Reality”: Trader

Is all hell about to breaks loose for Loonie longs?

Yesterday, Bank of America released a note titled simply enough “CAD longs at risk”, in which it said that “according to our liquid cross border flow (LCBF) data, hedge funds and real money now appear to be in the process of selling out of extended CAD longs after having been consistent buyers since the summer.” The Bank said that this represents an important directional shift and explained as follows:

As argued last month, risks remain sharply skewed to the upside in USDCAD over the next few months based largely on supportive US vs. Canada fundamentals and CAD position liquidation potential. Based on confirming trends in the LCBF data, we are more comfortable with our position liquidation thesis and continue to expect a retest of 1.33. Hedge funds began buying CAD after BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins delivered an upbeat assessment of Canada’s economic economy on June 12, marking the beginning of a pivotal shift in the BoC’s policy stance that ultimately saw the two emergency rate cuts of 2015 reversed in the July and September meetings. Hedge funds were net buyers of CAD in 13 of the 15 weeks following that speech, amassing a large cumulative position that peaked the week of November 17. In the three weeks since, roughly 40% of hedge fund longs in CAD have been liquidated.

As a result, BofA thinks that the risk is that real money follows the hedge fund lead and initiates the position squaring process, and added that “after unprofitably fading the Wilkins speech in the back half of June, real money began aggressively building long CAD positions from July through September, a period over which 80% of its peak cumulative long CAD position recorded on November 24 was put on.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Are Petrocurrencies Heading For Extinction?

October 25, 2017

Are Petrocurrencies Heading For Extinction?

Petrocurrencies are breaking away from their traditional tight link to oil prices, but all it would take for this link to return is for prices to fall bellow their current range. This seems to be the general consensus among bankers interviewed by Bloomberg’s Natasha Doff and Anna Andrianova.

The change is especially obvious with the Russian ruble, the Norwegian crown, and the Canadian dollar. The ruble’s response to the recent string of gains in oil prices was muted; the Norwegian crown barely batted an eyelash at latest price changes; and the Canadian dollar has weakened despite the oil price movements.

It seems there are two factors determining this break between the most-traded commodity in the world and its largest producers: one, interest rates; and two, the price range of oil. Russia, for example, offers high real yields for investors, which has made the ruble more attractive despite weaker oil prices over the last two years. Even a recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points to 8.25 percent didn’t discourage forex traders from buying the Russian currency, Doff and Andrianova note.

The situation isn’t much different in Canada: Ever since June, when the central bank raised interest rates for the first time in seven years, the correlation between the Canadian dollar and crude oil has weakened. This, analysts note, highlights the growing importance of central bank policy compared with the significance of the oil industry for the state budget in each of these countries.

Norway is awaiting an interest rate increase, but it has booked stronger-than-expected economic growth, which has helped weaken the link between the crown and oil. Still, like the ruble and the Canadian dollar, the crown is likely to suffer if a sharp drop occurs in oil prices, as all commodity-related currencies are more sensitive to downward movements in the commodity’s price than to price increases.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Loonie Tumbles After Canadian Inflation, Retail Sales Plunge

September 23, 2016

Loonie Tumbles After Canadian Inflation, Retail Sales Plunge

A slew of disappointing data out of Canada has sent the Loonie tumbling this morning (despite higher oil prices).

Canadian Retail Sales and Inflation data missed across the board…

Multi-year lows in CPI, Core CPI, and Retail Sales…

And the result is a tumbling Loonie as expectations of further rate cuts loom…

Charts: Bloomberg

Bank of Canada keeps benchmark interest rate at 0.5%

April 13, 2016

Bank of Canada keeps benchmark interest rate at 0.5%

Central bank’s rate has impact on rates offered by commercial banks for loans and savings accounts

The Bank of Canada, lead by governor Stephen Poloz, kept its benchmark lending rate at 0.5 per cent on Wednesday.

The Bank of Canada, lead by governor Stephen Poloz, kept its benchmark lending rate at 0.5 per cent on Wednesday. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

The Bank of Canada’s rate, known as its target for the overnight rate, affects what Canadian borrowers and savers are offered from commercial banks on their loans and investments.

BANK OF CANADA KEY OVERNIGHT RATE Broadly speaking, the bank cuts rates when it wants to stimulate the economy, and hikes rates when it wants to pump the brakes on inflation.

After standing on the sidelines for years, the bank unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate twice last year in an attempt to stimulate a Canadian economy waylaid by low oil prices.

Since then, the economy has showed signed of improvement, however, as the cheap loonie has helped manufacturers and exporters, and oil prices have stabilized around the $40 level in recent months.

In January, Canada’s gross domestic product grew by its biggest amount in more than two years, official data showed last month. That helps explain the new cautiously optimistic outlook from the central bank’s decision-makers.

BANK OF CANADA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK “It does appear that the positive forces at work in the economy are starting to outweigh those that are negative,” the bank said in its statement Wednesday. “First-quarter GDP growth appears to have been unexpectedly strong.”

The Canadian dollar reacted positively to the news, erasing earlier losses of about a third of a cent to trade hands virtually unchanged on the day, at 78.35 cents US.

While keeping rates steady for now, the bank hiked its forecast of how it expects the economy to perform this year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It was not a Merry Christmas for Canadian retailers

February 22, 2016

It was not a Merry Christmas for Canadian retailers

December’s retail sales slump was the worst in seven years, however, the weak demand from consumers didn’t stop retailers from raising prices again (up +2% the past year). I think retailers are adjusting prices to reflect higher import costs, courtesy of a much depreciated Canadian dollar. Based on the hotter than expected core CPI (inflation) for January, it seems that adjustment didn’t end in 2015. If these pressures don’t ease, Canada’s next move may be to hike rates, not cut! Stay tuned.

Fruit and vegetable prices hike overall food costs

February 21, 2016

Fruit and vegetable prices hike overall food costs

Food prices increased by four per cent over the year, largely because of the low loonie

According to the Consumer Price Index, food prices increased by four per cent from Jan. 2015 to Jan. 2016. But fresh vegetables alone were up 18 per cent. For example, just in December, the price of tomatoes shot up by 30 per cent.

“Well, obviously the weak loonie has had an impact on produce and fruit prices,” said Sylvain Charlebois, professor of marketing and consumer studies at the University of Guelph Food Institute. “They’ve gone up significanty.”

According to the Consumer Price Index, released by Statistics Canada on Friday, food prices increased by four per cent in January 2016, compared to the same month a year earlier. But fresh vegetables were up 18 per cent over that period, while the price of tomatoes alone shot up 30 per cent from the previous month.

Lettuce was up nearly 18 per cent in January, compared to a year earlier, while other fresh vegetables, including broccoli, cauliflower, celery and peppers, registered their largest year-over-year increase since April 2009, rising 23 per cent over the previous year.

Fresh fruit was up nearly 13 per cent for the year, with apples rising 16.6 per cent and oranges 11.

‘Driven by the weakened currency’

“Clearly many importers had to procure some produce outside of North America and that really increases transportation costs,” Charlebois said. “Peppers — we’ve had to go to Europe to get some of those products — so that’s why some products have increased by more than 30 per cent in a month.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold price over $1,200 has bullion buyers sure rally will continue

February 19, 2016

Gold price over $1,200 has bullion buyers sure rally will continue

Price of bullion is rising fast, especially when converted into Canadian currency

Gold has outperformed almost every single other asset class as an investment this year. Many backers of the precious metal say the rally is just getting started.

Gold has outperformed almost every single other asset class as an investment this year. Many backers of the precious metal say the rally is just getting started. (Frantzesco Kangaris/Bloomberg)

The price of an ounce of gold bullion has risen from a little over $1,000 US an ounce in late December to above $1,200 US Thursday, through a period when every single major stock index has fallen.

That’s part of a widespread flight to safety that has seen investors dump anything perceived as risky — stocks, oil and currencies like the Canadian dollar — and put their money into investments that are perceived to be safer.

That’s leading them right to gold, which is gaining ground after a multi-year slide.

“Investors are suddenly waking up to the risks in the market, pretty much like what happened in 2008,” said Robert Cohen, a portfolio manager at Scotiabank’s Dynamic Funds.

Mini-rally underway

“This time it’s more of a slower motion train wreck out there, so people are slowly digesting that information and systematically moving to safe havens like gold.”

Part of gold`s rally is due to a relative dearth of better options. That’s because central banks have cut interest rates so low that non-risky assets now can`t outperform inflation.

Bloomberg recently reported that almost a third of all the sovereign debt held by developed economies is negative yielding. That`s more than $7 trillion worth of assets guaranteed to lose money if held to maturity. Against a backdrop like that, it’s not hard to see gold’s appeal.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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