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“Potential For Extreme Havoc”: $50 Trillion Question Is What If Yields Spike Higher
“Potential For Extreme Havoc”: $50 Trillion Question Is What If Yields Spike Higher The size of the global government bond market surged by $10 trillion in the space of two years to reach about $50 trillion. Those outstanding borrowings are at least one gorilla in the room as investors gear up for a year in […]
Barron’s Nonsensical Idea: Cut Rates Like Mad to Avoid Recession
Barron’s Nonsensical Idea: Cut Rates Like Mad to Avoid Recession Barron’s writer Matthew Klein proposes to stop the recession by cutting interest rates like it’s 1995. Klein says How to Avoid a Recession? Cut Interest Rates Like It’s 1995. One of the most reliable harbingers of U.S. recession—short-term interest rates on U.S. Treasury debt higher than […]
3 Central Bank Shocks Unleash Overnight Yield Crash, With Yuan On Verge Of Collapse
3 Central Bank Shocks Unleash Overnight Yield Crash, With Yuan On Verge Of Collapse There is just one way to describe the plunge in bond yields overnight and the events behind it: the global race to the currency bottom is rapidly accelerating in its final lap with a global deflationary Ice Age (take a bow Albert Edwards) waiting […]
Weekly Commentary: Officially on “Periphery” Contagion Watch
Weekly Commentary: Officially on “Periphery” Contagion Watch This week saw all-time highs in the S&P500, the Nasdaq Composite, the Nasdaq100, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Microsoft’s market capitalization reached $1 TN for the first time. First quarter GDP was reported at a stronger-than-expected 3.2% pace. So why would the market this week increase the probability […]
Blain: When This Insane Monetary Experiment Ends You Will Have Zero Chance To Exit
Blain: When This Insane Monetary Experiment Ends You Will Have Zero Chance To Exit This is the day the UK isn’t exiting Europe. Surprised? Not really. Think I’ll try something different this morning – a review of the week touching on some of the key themes we should be thinking about. Let me know what […]
How Gibson’s paradox has been buried
How Gibson’s paradox has been buried Until the 1970s, all recorded history showed that bond yields were tied to the general price level, not the rate of price inflation as commonly believed. However, since then, the statistics say this is no longer the case, and bond yields are increasingly influenced by the rate of price […]
Spanish Yields Blow Out Amid Italy Contagion As Italian Banks Scramble For Dollar Funding
Spanish Yields Blow Out Amid Italy Contagion As Italian Banks Scramble For Dollar Funding Contagion from the recent surge in Italian yields has spread, and is hitting Spanish 10Y yields which over the past 3 days have blown out from 1.65% to as high as 1.82% this morning, before paring some of the move, printing […]
Market crash? Another red card for the economy
Market crash? Another red card for the economy A few months ago I wrote this article at the World Economic Forum called “A Yellow Card For The Global Economy“. It tried to serve as a warning on the rising imbalances of the emerging and leading economies. Unfortunately, since then, those imbalances have continued to rise […]
Louis Gave On Corporate Debt And The Next Liquidity Crisis
Louis Gave On Corporate Debt And The Next Liquidity Crisis This has been a good year for the stock market so far, at least in the U.S., yet many investors are wondering when the other shoe will drop. We spoke with Louis-Vincent Gave, founding partner and CEO at Gavekal Research, about the explosion in near […]
We Just Witnessed The Biggest U.S. Bond Crash In Nearly 2 Years – What Does This Mean For The Stock Market?
We Just Witnessed The Biggest U.S. Bond Crash In Nearly 2 Years – What Does This Mean For The Stock Market? U.S. bonds have not fallen like this since Donald Trump’s stunning election victory in November 2016. Could this be a sign that big trouble is on the horizon for the stock market? It seems […]
Italian Bonds Tumble, Triggering Goldman “Contagion” Level As Political Crisis Erupts In Spain
Italian Bonds Tumble, Triggering Goldman “Contagion” Level As Political Crisis Erupts In Spain When it comes to the latest rout in Italian bonds, which has continued this morning sending the 10Y BTP yield beyond 2.40%, a level above which Morgan Stanley had predicted fresh BTP selling would emerge as a break would leave many bondholders, […]
What to Expect From Central Bankers
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM CENTRAL BANKERS The Federal Reserve continues to tighten and other Central Banks will follow The BIS expects stocks to lose their lustre and bond yields to rise The normalisation process will be protracted, like the QE it replaces Macro prudential policy will have greater emphasis during the next boom As financial […]
The End of (Artificial) Stability
The End of (Artificial) Stability The central banks’/states’ power to maintain a permanent bull market in stocks and bonds is eroding. There is nothing natural about the stability of the past 9 years. The bullish trends in risk assets are artificial constructs of central bank/state policies. As these policies are reduced or lose their effectiveness, the […]
BIll Blain: “The Unintended Consequences Are Finally Coming Back To Bite Us”
BIll Blain: “The Unintended Consequences Are Finally Coming Back To Bite Us” Fundamentals ok, Technicals corrected, so why we should still be nervous on what comes next for markets… “If the apocalypse comes, tweet me..” That was an interesting week that was…. but what a hangover we face! What happened to the global bull stock […]
“This Is Probably Just The Beginning” – Chinese Banks Are In Big Trouble
“This Is Probably Just The Beginning” – Chinese Banks Are In Big Trouble That’s not supposed to happen… With the crackdown on financial system leverage underway, Chinese banks (and securities firms) are in big trouble. As we noted previously, China’s bond curve is inverted, yields are surging, and Chinese regulatory decisions shutting down various shadow-banking […]