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Week 9 of the Collapse of the U.S. Labor Market: Still Getting Worse at a Gut-Wrenching Pace
Week 9 of the Collapse of the U.S. Labor Market: Still Getting Worse at a Gut-Wrenching Pace
Federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) for gig workers doubles initial claims under state programs. Here are the “Insured Unemployment Rates” for each of the 50 states & DC.
The moment the unemployment crisis stops getting worse and bottoms out would signal the beginning of a recovery of the job market. But instead, it’s still getting worse at a gut-wrenching pace.
In the week ended May 16, state unemployment offices processed 2.438 million “initial claims” for unemployment insurance under state programs, bringing the total number of initial claims over the past nine reporting weeks since mid-March to a mind-bending 38.6 million (seasonally adjusted). The claims reported by the US Department of Labor this morning were over three times the magnitude of the prior weekly records during the unemployment crises in 1982 and 2009.
But it’s even worse: 4.4 million initial claims with PUA.
These “initial claims” exclude the gig workers, self-employed, and contract workers who are now eligible to receive unemployment insurance under the special and temporary federal program in the stimulus package, called Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA).
In the week ended May 16, an additional 2.23 million people (not seasonally adjusted) filed initial claims under the PUA program, up from the 850,000 that had filed the week ended May 9, and the 1 million that had filed in the week ended May 2. So in total, when regular initial claims (not seasonally adjusted) and PUA initial claims are combined for the week ended May 16, the total of initial claims (not seasonally adjusted) more than doubles to 4.4 million.
The number of “Insured Unemployed” spikes after last week’s calm.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
COVID Crisis Could Unify World’s Largest Oil Companies
COVID Crisis Could Unify World’s Largest Oil Companies
Sir Winston Churchill once admonished leaders to never let a good crisis go to waste. Wall Street banks and other large banks have been paying attention: They were shrewd enough to seize the opportunity presented by the last financial crisis to get hard-nosed government agencies to approve giant M&A deals they would otherwise have frowned upon.
The oil sector should take its cue from the banking sector and try out a little Churchillian wisdom.
Rob Cox, global correspondent for Reuters Breakingviews, seems to feel that is inevitable. He has told Reuters that the Covid-19 crisis could lead to merger mania in sectors like telecoms, auto, consumer goods, and energy.
But unlike the mid-cap energy mergers that had begun to break out before the crisis struck, Rob says tie-ups between giant producers like ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and BP(NYSE:BP) among others is now within the realm of possibility.
Cutting Costs
Pre-crisis notions about competition and antitrust concerns, Cox argues for Reuters, might take a backseat as economies emerge from lockdowns with governments changing tack and beginning to prioritize building industries with better operational efficiencies, lower costs, and healthier balance sheets.
Giant energy companies could use the cost-cutting gambit to justify mammoth deals that would otherwise fail to pass muster.
Under this backdrop, Exxon and Chevron might bandy together, and even throw in BP for good measure, to form the acronymous “ExChevBrit” whose combined market cap of $425 billion and reserve pool of ~70 billion barrels of oil equivalent would still pale in comparison to Saudi Aramco’s $1.6 trillion value and 270 billion Boe.
The financial crisis of 2008 that crippled the global banking sector, Cox notes, opened the way for mega-mergers such as Bank of America paying $50 billion for Merrill Lynch; Wells Fargo ponying up $15.1B to snag West Coast rival Wachovia and high-street lender Lloyds TBS coughing up £12bn for HBOS.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Collapse Will Be Visible: “For Lease” And “Space Available” Signs Are Starting To Go Up All Over America
The Collapse Will Be Visible: “For Lease” And “Space Available” Signs Are Starting To Go Up All Over America
Initially, we were told that the coronavirus lockdowns would just “temporarily” disrupt the U.S. economy, but now it is becoming clear that a lot of the damage will be permanent. We are starting to see businesses go belly up all over the country, and this includes some of the most iconic names in the retail world. When J.C. Penney announced that it would be declaring bankruptcy and closing hundreds of stores, I warned that would just be the tip of the iceberg, and that has definitely turned out to be the case. In fact, on Wednesday many analysts were absolutely shocked when news broke that Victoria’s Secret has decided to shut down about 250 stores…
Victoria’s Secret plans to permanently close approximately 250 stores in the U.S. and Canada in 2020, its parent company L Brands announced Wednesday.
L Brands also plans to permanently close 50 Bath & Body Works stores in the U.S. and one in Canada, according to information the company posted online as part of its quarterly earnings.
If this pandemic had passed quickly, perhaps those stores wouldn’t have needed to be shut down. But at this point it has become obvious that this virus is going to be with us for a long time to come. In fact, the WHO just announced that on a global basis we just witnessed the largest number of newly confirmed cases on a single day so far.
Another major retailer that is closing down stores is Pier 1 Imports. In fact, it is being reported that not a single one of their locations will survive…
Pier 1 Imports, which previously said it would close half of its fleet of stores, now plans to close all of its locations.
The retailer, based in Fort Worth, Texas, announced in a news release Tuesday that it was seeking bankruptcy court approval to begin an “orderly wind-down” when stores are able to reopen “following the government-mandated closures during the COVID-19 pandemic.”
I was never a huge fan of Pier 1 Imports, but my wife liked to visit and see what they had, but now we will never be able to do that again.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
What is Really the Game with the Bailouts?
What is Really the Game with the Bailouts?
There is a major crisis economically unfolding and the markets are not yet taking into account the seriousness of the economic damage. I have explained that this is a Coronavirus Bankruptcy Pandemic which has put about 30% of the retail service industry in the crosshairs of insolvency. But there are smaller municipal governments that are also bankrupt as we see with some of the first filings starting to unfold here in May.
With nearly 80% of the civil workforce employed in the service sector, these schemes of keeping the economy locked down are profoundly dangerous. They fail to realize that this is undermining society in a major way that it is not going to return to normal even with Bill Gates’ certificates to prove you have been vaccinated by him personally.
The Democratic states are refusing to open up when there is no real justification to keep their economies closed. What is really going on behind the curtain is a clever trick. The $1 trillion that Pelosi was stuffing in the Democratic Bill is money to bail out state and municipal governments which have been going broke because of their unfunded pensions.
The scheme is to crash their economies and then blame everything on the virus and then blame Trump for not bailing them out for the 2020 election. This is a very clever scheme being relayed in whispers from behind the curtain. They are using this virus as cover to bail out 70 years of fiscal mismanagement.
Our Fate Is Sealed, Vaccines Won’t Matter: Four Long Cycles Align
Our Fate Is Sealed, Vaccines Won’t Matter: Four Long Cycles Align
A Covid-19 vaccine, or lack thereof, will have zero effect in terms of reversing these cycles. Call it Fate, call it karma, call it what you will, but the cycles have aligned and nothing can stop the unraveling of all that was foolishly presumed to be permanent.
We like to think we’re in charge and that technology conquers all, but history moves in cycles that are larger than any person, corporation, elite or (gasp) technology. My first version of the chart below was drawn in 2008, when the Global Financial Meltdown revealed the cracks in the happy-story facade of permanent wonderfulness based on the amazing magic of borrowing / printing ever greater sums of currency, a.k.a. “money.”
Longtime correspondent Cheryl A. suggested I revisit the alignment of long-wave cycles, and so let’s start by what the study of cycles is not: it is predictive in terms of trends and turning points, not precise time or amplitude targets. In effect, the study of cycles is the study of human nature as it plays out in long-term social, political and economic dynamics.
Sir John Glubb’s succinct and deeply informed 1978 essay The Fate of Empires lists these stages of social development and decay that manifest as the rise and decline of empires:
The Age of Pioneers (outburst or Boost Phase)
The Age of Conquests
The Age of Commerce
The Age of Affluence
The Age of Intellect
The Age of Decadence
The slippery slope to collapse–decadence–is characterized by greed, corruption, irreconcilable internal political rifts, moral decay, frivolity, materialism–hmm, sound familiar?
The global status quo sped through The Age of Intellect (postmodernism) with little to show for the vast expenditure of resources, and is now firmly in the final terminal stage of decadence and collapse.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Why Cleantech Investment Should be a High Priority Now and after COVID-19
Why Cleantech Investment Should be a High Priority Now and after COVID-19
Prior to the COVID crisis, progression to Net Zero carbon neutral emissions was rising to the top of the policy agenda in many countries. Understandably, the global health and economic crisis has thrown a spanner into the works. It is crucial though, Robyn Owen and Theresia Harrer write, that in our attempts to recover, we tie in the fundamental need for a better funded systematic government-led Green Deal approach to early stage Cleantech funding.
The COVID-19 crisis threatens all of our lives. Understandably, it is currently the central focus of government policy globally. Yet history tells us that post-crisis economic reconstruction is most successful where investment is greatest in new emerging sectors. It is crucial, therefore, that investment in the UK is directed towards globally leading innovations for environmentally sustainable development, rather than simply to become more efficient at producing and selling more of the same.
Prior to the COVID crisis, progression to Net Zero carbon neutral emissions was rising to the top of the policy agenda in many countries. There was a widespread declaration of the climate crisis and climate war and a proliferation of Green New Deals—overarching policies for integrated government-led approaches to delivering reduction in carbon use and emissions.
We have argued that an essential element of climate change policies is a recognition that investing in early stage SME Cleantech innovators is crucial. These are companies developing technologies that lower carbon use and which are key to reaching the ambitious goals of an at least 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions set by the UNFCCC Paris Agreement of 2015. However, the costs and risks of investments in the cleantech sectors such as renewable energy, transport, building and communications infrastructure are high.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Big Tech Is Turning Hospitals Into Real-Time Surveillance Centers
Big Tech Is Turning Hospitals Into Real-Time Surveillance Centers
Recent events have come to light about hospital surveillance that should concern everyone.
Big Tech is using the pandemic as an excuse to turn hospitals into mirror images of law enforcement’s real-time crime centers.
When Google announced that they were donating 10,000 Nest cameras to hospitals, my jaw dropped.
“With these Nest Cams, nurses and doctors will be able to check in on patients, supplementing in-person checks. This means there will be a reduction of physical contact, and therefore less of a need for personal protection equipment (PPE), which has fast become a scare resource.”
What makes Google’s donation so jaw dropping is how Big Tech companies are using the pandemic to make them appear magnanimous.
“With both contact tracing and the Nest Cam solution, however, Google needs to rebuild a reputation as a privacy concerned company due to the sensitive nature of both projects. It’s not going to be an easy task, but one that should remain at the forefront of all such efforts.”
Because nothing says reputation builder, like putting real-time surveillance cameras in patients rooms. Not only will hospitals record patients but they will record, nurses, doctors, hospital staff and anyone else who enters a patients’ room. That also includes minors, so no one will be safe from Big Brother’s prying eyes.
As The Guardian discovered, it also sends that information to Google servers.
“However, Nest admits that when connected to Google’s “Works with Nest integration” system, which allows other devices such as ceiling fans, washing machines and car sensors to integrate with Nest’s products, it does share personal information with Google.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Food for Thought – US Population, Employment, Debt, NIRP, Monetization
Food for Thought – US Population, Employment, Debt, NIRP, Monetization
In 2019, US population growth fell to +1.55m or +0.5%…this was due to a trifecta of declining births, lower immigration, and higher deaths than anticipated. However, as with everything “2020”, all three trends are only intensifying to blow away 2019. Births are falling faster and further, deaths moving higher with Corona-virus and drug related overdoses, and immigration nearly non-existent. Thus, US population growth will likely dip below 1 million or +0.3% this year. And while I anticipate (or think it feasible) that immigration could return to 2019 levels eventually, births will almost surely continue falling and deaths rising more than anticipated. The simple outcome of this is an ongoing collapse in US population growth which is far larger in scope than the current Corona-virus pandemic.Census Population Estimates…Wildly Overstating GrowthThe chart below shows the 2008, 2014, and 2017 Census US total population projections through 2050. Some quick math shows that in 9 years time from ’08 to ’17, the Census downgraded US population growth through 2050 by 50 million persons. But due to the factors mentioned above, the 2020 Census projection through 2050 will need another massive downgrade…I’d suggest something on the order of another 29 million person downgrade.
The most significant contributor to decelerating population growth is declining births. This is true among the native population and true among immigrants. On average, they are all having significantly fewer children than anticipated. As the Census estimates from ’00, ’08, ’12, ’14, and ’17 show…the Census models just can’t fathom the fast declining births taking place in the US. But each Census estimate is still far too high, and perhaps in ’20 the Census will “fix” their models and portray reality (ok, not likely)…but I offer a more realistic picture below.
However, the downgrades in population are specifically among the younger populations. Obviously, declining births and immigration means declining young. The about face from ’08 to ’20 is stunning in the suggestion that the US truly is far more Japanese than immune to depopulation.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Huge Protests in Germany Against Government’s Lockdowns
Huge Protests in Germany Against Government’s Lockdowns
The German Press is starting to wake up at last after a period of just saying Yes mam! They have run the story that if we acted rationally, we could quickly overcome the consequences of the corona crisis. But politics is deliberately spreading panic among the population and stirring up fear – and in this way causes a severe economic crisis.
For today, the initiative “lateral thinking 711” announced a rally with 500,000 participants in Stuttgart have registered. But there are protests rising in Munich and Berlin. The number of people may reach 1 million.
The government is trying with the aid of most press to label these people as right-wing racists because they cannot address their actions on false forecasts. Meanwhile, unknown persons have set up a replica tombstone in front of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s (CDU) constituency office in Stralsund symbolizing her reign some call of Terror between the refugees and now the virus over-reaction has destroy their lib=vlihoods and their future.
On top of that, the rising resentment against the Eurozone control from Brussels has many wanting to kill the Euro and return to national currencies. I have warned that the cultural divides are far too great and this virus is being used for a total environmental reconstruction of the economy by sheer force. The lack of a transition or any planning whatsoever has cast the livelihoods and future of the world population is tremendous jeopardy and has drastically increased the outcome of our forecasts for not just the collapse of the Euro, but the rise in civil unrest and international war.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Perpetual Crisis: Now The WHO Is Telling Us That COVID-19 “May Never Go Away”
The Perpetual Crisis: Now The WHO Is Telling Us That COVID-19 “May Never Go Away”
Are you ready for “the new normal” to become permanent? Originally, most of us assumed that “shelter-in-place orders” and “social distancing restrictions” would just be temporary, but now top health officials are warning us that some of these temporary measures may have to remain in place for the foreseeable future. That means that our lives could be severely disrupted for a long time to come. In fact, Dr. Anthony Fauci just told a Senate Committee that it may not be safe for schools all over America to reopen when the next school year begins in the fall. Apparently Fauci and other medical “experts” believe that it will not be possible for us to fully go back to our normal lives as long as this virus keeps spreading.
But how long are we really supposed to wait?
The truth is that this pandemic could still potentially be in the early chapters. The Spanish Flu pandemic lasted for three full years, and we could possibly be facing a similar scenario.
And this week WHO official Mike Ryan warned that this virus could even become “endemic”, and if that happens it “may never go away”…
“It is important to put this on the table: this virus may become just another endemic virus in our communities, and this virus may never go away,” WHO emergencies expert Mike Ryan told an online briefing.
“I think it is important we are realistic and I don’t think anyone can predict when this disease will disappear,” he added. “I think there are no promises in this and there are no dates. This disease may settle into a long problem, or it may not be.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Industrial Production Declines Most in 101 Years
Industrial Production Declines Most in 101 Years
On the heels of miserable retail sales numbers comes the worst ever industrial production numbers.
The Fed’s Industrial Production report provides another grim look at the Covid-19 wrecked economy.
Total industrial production fell 11.2 percent in April for its largest monthly drop in the 101-year history of the index, as the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic led many factories to slow or suspend operations throughout the month.
Manufacturing output dropped 13.7 percent, its largest decline on record, as all major industries posted decreases. The output of motor vehicles and parts fell more than 70 percent; production elsewhere in manufacturing dropped 10.3 percent.
The indexes for utilities and mining decreased 0.9 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively. At 92.6 percent of its 2012 average, the level of total industrial production was 15.0 percent lower in April than it was a year earlier.
Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 8.3 percentage points to 64.9 percent in April, a rate that is 14.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average and 1.8 percentage points below its all-time (since 1967) low set in 2009.
No V-Shaped Recovery
As noted earlier today Retail Sales Plunge Way More Than Expected
Despite talk from hopers, even the fed understands there will not be a V-Shaped recovery.
Instead they are promoting a helicopter drop of money. For details, please see Panic Sets In: Fed Promotes More Free Money
Contact Tracing, Immunity Cards and Mass Testing: Are We on The Fast Track to a National ID?
Contact Tracing, Immunity Cards and Mass Testing: Are We on The Fast Track to a National ID?
If you can’t read the writing on the wall, you need to pay better attention.
CHARLOTTESVILLE (Rutherford) –– No one is safe. No one is immune. No one gets spared the anguish, fear and heartache of living under the shadow of an authoritarian police state.
That’s the message being broadcast 24/7 with every new piece of government propaganda, every new law that criminalizes otherwise lawful activity, every new policeman on the beat, every new surveillance camera casting a watchful eye, every sensationalist news story that titillates and distracts, every new prison or detention center built to house troublemakers and other undesirables, every new court ruling that gives government agents a green light to strip and steal and rape and ravage the citizenry, every school that opts to indoctrinate rather than educate, and every new justification for why Americans should comply with the government’s attempts to trample the Constitution underfoot.
Yes, COVID-19 has taken a significant toll on the nation emotionally, physically, and economically, but there are still greater dangers on the horizon.
As long as “we the people” continue to allow the government to trample our rights in the so-called name of national security, things will get worse, not better.
It’s already worse.
Now there’s talk of mass testing for COVID-19 antibodies, screening checkpoints, contact tracing, immunity passports to allow those who have recovered from the virus to move around more freely, and snitch tip lines for reporting “rule breakers” to the authorities.
If you can’t read the writing on the wall, you need to pay better attention.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
It’s Time to Investigate the Players to Prove the Public Has Been Manipulated for Personal Gain
It’s Time to Investigate the Players to Prove the Public Has Been Manipulated for Personal Gain
COMMENT: Marty; it seems you write and other do listen. I remember when you posted that China should stop buying bond from the bankers at inform the Treasury they will only buy directly. The US never did that. They did in about one week. Well your posts on Bar and the chart you posted you know will be evidence in a court that they would need a trader to figure out. They just raided Barr’s house. Hopefully, this will lead to the investigation you keenly are recommending to restore public confidence.
Good on ya!
EK
REPLY: For a warrant to be served on a sitting US senator, this requires approval from the very highest ranks of the Justice Department. This signals that they are stepping up this investigation.
Diane Feinstein has confirmed that she and her husband turned over documents regarding their stock trades ahead of the COVID-19 announcements. No word yet from Pelosi. Pelosi was notorious for such dealings and had refused to answer questions back in 2012.
As I have said, I know PERSONALLY that phone calls were made and elites sold out ahead of the news of a coming “virus” that they did stage a plan of attack just a few months before. Look at Event 201 pandemic tabletop exercise hosted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation back on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY.
Bill Gates already has India’s Serum Institute preparing a Gates vaccine for the coronavirus with 60 million doses before it has been approved. Who is paying for that? Probably Gates. Will he make a profit? That is not philanthropy when you get a return — it’s called investment.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Collapse of Main Street and Local Tax Revenues Cannot Be Reversed
The Collapse of Main Street and Local Tax Revenues Cannot Be Reversed
The core problem is the U.S. economy has been fully financialized, and so costs are unaffordable.
To understand the long-term consequences of the pandemic on Main Street and local tax revenues, we need to consider first and second order effects. The immediate consequences of lockdowns and changes in consumer behavior are first-order effects: closures of Main Street, job losses, massive Federal Reserve bailouts of the top 0.1%, loan programs for small businesses, stimulus checks to households that earned less than $200,000 last year, and so on.
The second-order effects cannot be bailed out or controlled by central authorities. Second-order effects are the result of consequences have their own consequences.
Gordon Long and I look at two highly correlated second-order effects: the collapse of Main Street and local tax revenues.
The first-order effects of the pandemic on Main Street are painfully obvious: small businesses that have barely kept their heads above water as costs have soared have laid off employees as they’ve closed their doors.
The second-order effects are still spooling out: how many businesses will close for good because the owners don’t want to risk losing everything by chancing re-opening? How many will give it the old college try and close a few weeks later as they conclude they can’t survive on 60% of their previous revenues? How many enjoy a brief spurt of business as everyone rushes back, but then reality kicks in and business starts sliding after the initial burst wears off?
How many will be unable to hire back everyone who was laid off?
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
What does COVID-19 mean for sustainable consumption?
What does COVID-19 mean for sustainable consumption?
Our priorities shift when the wolf is at the door, Iona Murphy writes about the impact of the current crisis. It’s quite understandable that people may not have the headspace for sustainability right now. Nonetheless, we’re currently on a hiatus from consumerism—will it last?
Back in the beginning of March, which feels like a lifetime ago, there were signs that the British public might be living more sustainably. 1 in 5 people who fly abroad, commute by car or eat meat were planning to cut back, and expected reductions for clothing and plastic packaging were even higher.
To state the obvious, a lot has changed since then—many of us won’t be driving to work anytime soon, and holidays abroad are off the cards. Our priorities shift when the wolf is at the door, and it is quite understandable that people may not have the headspace for sustainability right now. Even the zero-waste influencers buy plastic in a pandemic.
But there’s reason to think we might act differently when once the dust has settled. We are most likely to change our behaviours during a major life event, like moving house or having a child; COVID-19 imposes such an event on everyone. Change is not always unwelcome; polling for the UK Food, Farming and Countryside Commission found that 6 in 10 adults want to make changes in their life once this is over, whereas only 33% want their life to go back to how it was before. That means almost twice as many adults want change, than don’t.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
