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Will We See A New Covid-19 Spike Soon?
Will We See A New Covid-19 Spike Soon?
Chris estimates we’ll know within the next 3-5 weeks
State lockdowns lifting across the US. businesses and public spaces opening back up. Mass protests bringing thousands together in close quarters.
Will we see a resurgence in covid-19 infections as a result? Unknown at this moment, but we shouldn’t have long to wait. Chris predicts we’ll know one way or the other within the next 3 to 5 weeks.
As the nation waits, we’ll undoubtedly see more symptoms of the social rifts that the pandemic has exacerbated. Trust in authority has been badly shaken: from the response from the Administration/CDC/WHO, to the “garbage science” tilting the scales towards Big Pharma’s interests, to the current protests against the police, to the deeply unfair repercussions of the Federal Reserve’s rescue of the rich — the populace is waking up to the fact that our “leaders’” actions are out of integrity with the public welfare.
Where will this growing unrest take us? Unknown at this point, but similar to covid-19, we may not have long to wait to find out.
Texas Reports Record Jump In COVID-19 Infections As US Total Tops 2 Million: Live Updates
Texas Reports Record Jump In COVID-19 Infections As US Total Tops 2 Million: Live Updates
Summary:
- NYT says US COVID cases top 2 million
- Texas reports another record jump in new cases
- Arkansas to enter phase 2 next week
- Rhode Island Gov says students will return to schools on Aug. 31
- BBG warns 4 states show signs of second wave
- Mumbai surpasses case total from Wuhan as Indian outbreak worsens
- Bangladesh, Jakarta reports record jump in new cases
- Germany expands warning on international travel to non-European countries
- 9 states see COVID hospitalizations hit record highs
- National guardsmen deployed in Washington DC test positive
- AP weighs in on WHO’s latest flip-flop
- Gottlieb warns Texas on the brink of losing control of the outbreak
- Greater New York area continues to bend the curve
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Update (1830ET): The NYT just reported that the number of coronavirus cases in the US has exceeded 2 million…Gabe Fleisher✔@WakeUp2Politics
News: The United States has exceeded 2 million confirmed coronavirus infections, according to the New York Times count.
Cases are rising in 21 states. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=storylines_menu …
333Twitter Ads info and privacy334 people are talking about this
…while the 7-day average number of new infections confirmed is rising in 21 states.
It’s another grim milestone for the US, which has far and away the largest number of confirmed infections; Brazil, with nearly 800k, is No. 2.
* * *
Update (1825ET): Barely an hour after President Trump announced plans to hold campaign rallies in four states, beginning with one in Oklahoma on Friday, as well as a rally being planned in Arizona, the state where the virus appears to be spreading at an alarming rate. And after reporting a spike in hospitalizations yesterday, Texas reported ~2,500 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, its biggest one-day jump since the outbreak began.
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Governments Have Crippled the World’s Economies. Revolution May Soon Follow.
GOVERNMENTS HAVE CRIPPLED THE WORLD’S ECONOMIES. REVOLUTION MAY SOON FOLLOW.
The world seems to be on fire. A couple of months ago, the economic upswing was still firmly established, production expanded, and unemployment was declining. It all changed with the advent of the coronavirus or, to be precise: things turned really sour with the politically dictated lockdowns. As a reaction to the spread of the virus, governments in many countries ordered shops and firms to shut down and people to stay home. The inevitable result was a close to complete breakdown of the economic system. Hundreds of millions of people were thrown into outright despair; in India alone 120 million workers lost their jobs in April 2020.
The economic collapse sent the unbacked paper money system into a tailspin. Borrowers were unable to service their debt, and banks unwilling to roll over maturing loans, let alone extend new funds to struggling debtors. The entire credit pyramid was about to come crashing down. To prevent this from happening, governments and their central banks went “all in,” providing huge amounts of money to pay for people’s lost incomes and firms’ evaporating profits. Of course, governments do not have the money that they have promised to spend.
Central banks have started running the electronic printing presses, issuing great amounts of newly created money into the banking and financial sector and also injecting new balances into people’s accounts held with banks. In other words: as production contracts heavily, the quantity of money is rising strongly. This is, no doubt, an inflationary policy, for, if anything, inflation must be understood as an increase in the quantity of money. One possible outcome of a policy of increasing the quantity of money is price inflation: the increase in the money prices of goods and services.
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The “Great Unlock” Does Not Change the Case for Gold
The “Great Unlock” Does Not Change the Case for Gold
This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Why a quick economic recovery might not be around the corner, gold investors could be facing a buying opportunity, and auction of first U.S. gold coin could see a $15 million bid.
The return to normal might seem rapid, but the economic rebound could be anything but
Given the sheer amount of damage that the pandemic caused to the U.S. economy, many are hoping that the recovery will be as quick as the reopening of stores and businesses – especially given the stimulus that has been issued. Yet, as FXEmpire’s Arkadiusz Sieron points out, the lockdown wasn’t a wholly governmental measure from start to finish, and the opening could very much reflect that.
Instead, many shutdowns occurred on an individual level, with citizens and business owners testing out the waters. The reopening is likely to happen in similar fashion, leaving consumers with a need to re-acclimatize to their pre-lockdown routine and certain businesses to act in accord.
The notion of a V-shaped recovery has caused some tumult in the gold market and stirred up optimism for the first time in a while. Yet any doubters are forgetting that the metal was doing just as well prior to the pandemic, riding on a six-year high driven primarily by low or negative interest rates.
The domestic economy that everyone is eager to return to was sending off red flags and recessionary signals for a while, whereas the global economy had likewise been contracting. The sheer necessity to keep interest rates low or negative for the foreseeable future is essentially a guarantee of the same environment that has been supportive of gold, and persistent issues like sovereign debt, fiscal deficits and general uncertainty are more than likely to keep it there.
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Three crises, one solution
Three crises, one solution
The paroxysm of anger that has erupted across the US in the wake of the murder of George Floyd has been called by some observers “a tipping point”. A multicultural younger generation is showing that it is genuinely concerned about social injustice, racial inequality, and the climate crisis.
The astonishing scenes on the streets of America have echoed around the world including in the UK, Canada, and Australia. But is it a tipping point? We have been through this before, at least since the violent riots that wracked Los Angeles almost 30 years ago in the aftermath of the Rodney King beating—captured on video. If there’s a single technology that has to some degree protected the Black community in America and Canada against racial injustice at the hands of the police, one could argue it’s the video camera and the smart phone. A picture may be worth a thousand words, but a video is worth a million.
The pandemic
The widespread protests against police violence have almost overshadowed the sombre news about the Covid-19 pandemic. Around the world, over 400,000 people have died—more than a quarter of them in the US. The death toll in America is certain to rise—ironically because the protest marches bring thousands of people into close proximity at a time when the contagion in the US has barely abated.
But behind the nightly news programmes showing protesters on the streets in cities around the world, and warnings from public health professionals about the continuing pandemic, there is another simmering crisis. This one is slow-burning, but much more dangerous.
The climate
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EU Economy Traveling Along Same Worn Dead-end Road
EU Economy Traveling Along Same Worn Dead-end Road
With so many countries across the world facing difficulties, many people have yet to notice the Euro-Zone has become a place where hope goes to die. The last round of elections in the Euro-Zone should bring little comfort to those supporting a stronger Europe. Huge gains were made by forces seeking more power for the populist agenda. In short, it is a boost for the rights of individual nations to have more say in how they are governed. Two of the most pressing issues are that insolvent Italy struggles with a stagnate economy and Spain is coming apart politically with Catalan separatists defying Spain’s Prime Minister.
To avoid the union coming apart at the seams and a miserable future, the European Commission recently unveiled an unprecedented €750BN CoVid-19 recovery plan. It consists of €500 billion in grants to member states, and €250 billion would be available in loans. This means they are asking for the power to borrow. This is geared to tackle the worst recession in European history and shore up Italy. It would mean transforming the EU’s central finances to allow for it to raise unprecedented sums on the capital markets and hand out the bulk of the proceeds as grants to hard-pressed member states.
The Euro-Zone was already in deep trouble before CoVid-19 hit, the weakness that started in 2017 never ended. In the fourth quarter even Germany narrowly escaped recession. This could be blamed on the Brexit or Trade War but it goes beyond that, they abandoned all structural reforms in 2014 when the ECB started its quantitative easing program (QE) and expanded the balance sheet to record-levels. In 2019, almost 22% of the Euro Zone GDP gross added value came from Travel & Leisure, a sector that will unlikely come back anytime soon. Add this to weak exports and a banking sector that is totally decimated and everything points downward.
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Weekly Commentary: Bubble Meets Pandemic Consequences
Weekly Commentary: Bubble Meets Pandemic Consequences
For posterity, some numbers: Over the past three weeks (14 sessions), the S&P500 gained 11.5%. The KBW Bank Index surged 36.1%, with the NYSE Financials up 23.9%. The Dow Transports rose 27.2% in 14 sessions, with the Bloomberg Americas Airlines Index up 75.8%.
Over this period, the broader market significantly outperformed the S&P500. The small cap Russell 2000 jumped 19.9% and the S&P400 Midcaps 21.1%. The Philadelphia Oil Services Index surged 50.0%. The Homebuilders (XHB) jumped 26.2% and the Bloomberg REIT index rose 22.5%. The average stock (Value Line Arithmetic Index) surged 25.3% in three weeks.
Over three weeks, United Airlines rose 113%, American Airlines 106%, Norwegian Cruise Line 105%, Royal Caribbean Cruises 85%, CIT Group 86%, Delta Air Lines 78%, Simon Property Group 73%, L Brands 72%, Boeing 71%, Carnival Corp 68%, Macy’s 68%, Alaska Air Group 67%, Kimco Realty 66%, Gap 62%, and Southwest Airlines 60%.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 8.9% over the past three weeks to close this week at all-time highs. The Semiconductors jumped 17.8% to end Friday at record highs. The Nasdaq100 (NDX) gained 7.3% in three weeks to new highs.
June 5 – Bloomberg (Sarah Ponczek): “The latest U.S. jobs report will go down in history as the data that shocked economists. And the market. Forecasts for a drop of 7.5 million in payrolls were met with the reality of a 2.5 million increase in May, supporting the view that the world’s largest economy may be more resilient than previously thought. A stock market already up 40% in a record period of time rallied further, with particular pockets going haywire. From a blowup in the momentum factor trade to a surge in small-cap shares, here’s a sample of what was happening under the equity market’s surface Friday. The momentum factor, which in essence bets that the recent winners will keep on winning, got pummeled Friday. At its lows, a Dow Jones market neutral momentum portfolio that goes long the highest momentum stocks and shorts those with the least momentum dropped 9% — the worst day since at least 2002.”
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Food and Agroecology: Coping with Future Shocks
Food and Agroecology: Coping with Future Shocks
The food crisis that could follow in the wake of the various lockdowns that were implemented on the back of the coronavirus may have long-lasting consequences. We are already seeing food shortages in the making. In India, for instance, supply chains have been disrupted, farm input systems for the supply of seeds and fertilisers have almost collapsed in some places and crops are not being harvested. Moreover, cultivation has been adversely affected prior to the monsoon and farm incomes are drying up. Farmers closer to major urban centres are faring a bit better due to shorter supply chains.
Veteran rural reporter P Sainath has urged India’s farmers to move away from planting cash crops and to start cultivating food crops, saying that you cannot eat cotton. It’s a good point. For instance, according to a report that appeared on the ruralindiaonline website, in a region of southern Odisha, farmers have been pushed towards a reliance on (illegal) expensive genetically modified herbicide tolerant cotton seeds and have replaced their traditional food crops. Farmers used to sow mixed plots of heirloom seeds, which had been saved from family harvests the previous year and would yield a basket of food crops. They are now dependent on seed vendors, chemical inputs and a volatile international market to make a living and are no longer food secure.
But what is happening in India is a microcosm of global trends. Reliance on commodity monocropping for international markets, long global supply chains and dependency on external inputs for cultivation make the food system vulnerable to shocks, whether resulting from public health scares, oil price spikes (the industrial global food system is heavily fossil-fuel dependent) or conflict. An increasing number of countries are recognising the need to respond by becoming more food self-sufficient, preferably by securing control over their own food and reducing supply chains.
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Former MI6 Boss Says COVID-19 Manmade, Escaped From Chinese Lab
Former MI6 Boss Says COVID-19 Manmade, Escaped From Chinese Lab
The former head of Britain’s MI6 spy agency believes COVID-19 is a manmade virus that accidentally escaped from a Chinese laboratory, based on forthcoming research, according to The Telegraph.
Entitled “A Reconstructed Historical Aetiology of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike”, the new study, seen by The Telegraph, suggests the virus is “remarkably well-adapted virus for human co-existence” and is likely to be the result of a Wuhan lab experiment to produce “chimeric viruses of high potency”.
The paper concludes: “Henceforth, those who would maintain that the Covid-19 pandemic arose from zoonotic transfer need to explain precisely why this more parsimonious account is wrong before asserting that their evidence is persuasive, most especially when, as we also show, there are puzzling errors in their use of evidence.” –The Telegraph
Perhaps most notable is that the former MI6 boss in question is Sir Richard Dearlove – who helped Obamagate operative Stefan Halper set up a smear campaign against Michael Flynn, and who made a name for himself nearly two decades ago peddling a bogus report that Saddam Hussein had WMDs – which Tony Blair used to justify the UK’s involvement the Iraq war. Clearly Dearlove is trying to ruin our street cred.
Indeed, while it was inevitable that the Western establishment would eventually gravitate towards the Wuhan lab theory Zero Hedge presented in late January, Dearlove’s endorsement couldn’t come from a more suspicious operative.
So, as the establishment continues to adopt the very obvious conclusion supported by a mountain of evidence that the bat-like coronavirus probably escaped from a Chinese laboratory known for modifying bat coronaviruses to infect humans, we suspect Dearlove and the ‘perpetual war’ crowd are most interested in using the accusation as a political cudgel to wield against China.
Here’s the narrative
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Retail Store Closures Have Huge Impact On Communities
Retail Store Closures Have Huge Impact On Communities
Across America many buildings stand empty or under-leased. They once housed thriving businesses that provided Americans with good-paying jobs.Over the last several years retailers have been closing stores and as the carnage rapidly accelerates this will be back in the news bigger than ever. The impact of these store closings all across America will be huge and take a huge toll on communities with a great number of jobs being lost forever.Much of this is linked to small businesses having its clock cleaned when forced to shutdown because of Covid-19, however, a lot is related to paying higher wages, compiling with new government regulations, and being forced to compete with big businesses backed by Wall Street money.
Retail closures come with a hidden cost to society that the average person fails to internalize. Retail closings will result in lots of other small businesses closing their doors. Not only will the retail employees lose their jobs but these stores support many local businesses.People often forget that the brick and mortar stores suffer several expenses not fostered upon online companies. All these constitute a sort of tax on these stores which benefits the community in which they are located.
These costs rapidly add up and include such things as maintaining landscaping, ensuring safe ingress and egress, or providing a parking lot for customers. Staffing for longer hours, for the convenience of customers, often results in being open when foot traffic would indicate a store should be closed. Dealing with security and shoplifters is another expensive burden. Over the last few years, stores such as Target and Macy’s have even had to face a slew of dishonest shoppers trying to sneak defectives products purchased online back as exchanges and trading them for a fresh unbroken product. I have seen this costly abuse recommended by several online shoppers that see this as an “easy fix” on how to handle defective merchandise.
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Coronavirus Bankruptcy Pandemic Continues
Coronavirus Bankruptcy Pandemic Continues
Hertz has now joined the ranks of filing for bankruptcy as this lockdown has caused car rentals to crash to virtually zero. Of course, Climate Change activists led by Bill Gates are celebrating. They cheer every bankruptcy they have managed to create with the absurd lockdowns were the first time in history you quarantine the entire population rather than just those who are sick.
The total economic destruction we have said is about $30 trillion in businesses. If we add real estate which cannot be sold, that is most likely $35-$45 trillion. Then add on top of that the coming wave of sovereign bond defaults which will include emerging markets that have witnessed their exports collapse. Global GDP is about $90 trillion. The global bond market is about $100 trillion.
Commercial Real Estate is worth about $32 trillion and Agricultural Real Estate about $27 trillion. Total residential Real Estate is about $170 trillion at the end of 2019. If we have to put a number of that we reach about $230 trillion.
The total world equity market at the end of 2019 was nearly $90 trillion.
Therefore, if we add up what I call Capital Formation, this is the combination of real estate, equities, and bonds. This number works out to be about $420 trillion.
Consequently, the economic contraction in just the current GDP of $90 trillion is about $30 trillion, and Capital Formation is probably about $120 trillion illiquid out of $420 trillion if they even tried to sell. Anyone who thinks that governments can possibly stimulate their way out of this or create hyperinflation by spending even $10 trillion are not taking into consideration the full scope of this economic collapse.
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The Economic “Reopening” Is A Fake Out
The Economic “Reopening” Is A Fake Out
How does one define an economic “reopening”? I think most people would say that a reopening means that everything goes back to the way it was before the crisis; or at least as close as possible. Most people would also say that a reopening is something that will last. Simply declaring “America has reopened” while keeping many restrictions in place in certain parts of the country is a bit of a farce. And, reopening with the intention of implementing lockdowns again in a matter of weeks without explaining the situation to the public is a scam of the highest order.
For example, states like New York, California, Illinois and New Jersey have extended their lockdowns; with LA’s extension remaining ambiguous after they initially declared restrictions for another 3 months. New York’s lockdown is extended to the end of May (so far). This is the case in many US states and cities, while rural areas are mostly open. This is being called a “partial reopening”, but is there a purpose behind the uneven approach?
As I predicted in my article ‘Pandemic And Economic Collapse: The Next 60 Days’, the restrictions will continue in major US population centers while rural areas have mostly opened with much fanfare. The end result of this will be a flood of city dwellers into rural towns looking for relief from more strict lockdown conditions. In about a month, we should expect new viral clusters in places where there was limited transmission. I suggest that before the 4th of July holiday, state governments and the Federal government will be talking about new lockdowns, using the predictable infection spike as an excuse.
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It Doesn’t Matter What You Think, Reality Is What It Is
It Doesn’t Matter What You Think, Reality Is What It Is
It doesn’t matter what you think, the reality we face is what we are seeing here on the ground. Reality is what it is and our government will as usual muddle through with poorly thought out politically correct solutions geared to kick the can down the road. This brings me little delight. I have gone a bit quiet lately because of how events are slowly unfolding, the keyword, in this case, is slowly. Rather than a wave washing over us we are experiencing a troubling drip after drip of bad news which a majority of the population has now come to accept as normal. You can put lipstick on a pig but no matter what you tell yourself, it is still a pig.
In some ways what is happening to people across the world could be compared to what occurred when the white-man came to America. The Indians slowly traded their freedom for baubles and what they did not trade away was slowly taken by force. In this analogy, technology is the shiny promise unto which we sadly surrender our future. Beware, those that claim the promise technology is the key to a better future are not quick to share its rewards.They prefer to turn us into mindless slaves and government is a tool they employ in their efforts.
Exploding debt and a slow recovery following the 2008 financial crisis. Many of us claimed it really was not a true recovery but rather a debt-fueled false economy. All this continued with the aid of a few major distractions which took our eyes off the ball. Then the corona-virus hit. Looking back, the first diversion was the emergence of ISIS and the wave of refugees that destabilized Europe and the second was the trade war with China.
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COVID-19 Has Replaced Osama bin Laden as the Fall Guy for Lost Liberties
COVID-19 Has Replaced Osama bin Laden as the Fall Guy for Lost Liberties
The government and media have dumped at the doorstep of the coronavirus many of the political, economic and social afflictions that are now ravaging much of the global population. In reality, they need to point the finger at themselves.
As the mainstream media saturates the airwaves with a daily overdose of coronavirus fear porn, the majority of journalists have given their governments a free pass to enact any draconian measure they see fit. From the closure of public beaches to forbidding power boats on waterways, the insanity seems to have no limits or logic. And as the media would have us believe, it was the coronavirus that enacted these measures, as opposed to living, breathing, unthinking humans.
Anti lockdown Protest went well. #Antilockdown #COVID19
What dirty deeds does the new and improved villain of our times stand accused of? First and foremost, the coronavirus singlehandedly destroyed the global economy as only ‘essential’ businesses may continue to operate. Thus, thousands of small businesses have been ordered shuttered, de facto destroyed, while countless numbers of people around the world have been ordered to ‘shelter-in-place’ with dwindling financial reserves.
Again, this wanton destruction of a large swath of the economy is not due to bad government decision-making, at least according to the media, but Covid-19.
‘Jobless claims jump another 4.4 million — 26 million Americans have lost their jobs to the coronavirus,’ reported MarketWatch. ‘It could take two years for the economy to recover from the coronavirus pandemic,’ screamed another headline.
Perhaps it was also the coronavirus that decided that it would make perfect sense to keep abortion clinics and state-owned liquor stores open during the pandemic, while shutting down houses of worship and gun shops. Clearly, the coronavirus is an equitable and non-partisan distributor of pain and suffering!
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The path to monetary collapse
The path to monetary collapse
Few mainstream commentators understand the seriousness of the economic and monetary situation. from a V-shaped rapid return to normality towards a more prolonged recovery phase.
The fact that a liquidity crisis developed in US money markets five months before the virus hit America has been forgotten. Only a rising gold price stands testament to a deeper crisis, comprised of contracting bank credit while central banks are trying to rescue the economy, fund government deficits and keep the market bubble inflated.
The next problem is a crisis in the banks, wholly unexpected by investors and depositors. At a time when lending risk is soaring off the charts, their financial condition is more fragile than before the Lehman crisis. Failures in European G-SIBs in the next month or two are almost impossible to avoid, leading to a full-blown monetary and credit crisis which promises to undermine asset values, government financing and fiat currencies themselves.
We can now discern the path leading to the destruction of fiat currencies and take reasonably guesses as to timing.
How central banks view the current situation.
The financial world is bemused: what is it to make of the economic effects of the coronavirus? The official answer, it seems, is on the lines of don’t panic. The earliest fears of millions of deaths have subsided and in the light of experience, a more rational approach of easing lockdown rules is now being implemented in a number of badly hit jurisdictions. Whether this evolving policy is right will be proved in due course. But the motivation is moving from saving lives to restricting the economic damage.
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