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Is GDP Over?
Is GDP Over? Economists from rich countries increasingly agree: Sustainable development and reducing inequality matter more than economic growth. (Photo: World Bank Photo Collection / Flickr) Organizers of October’s fifth OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge, and Policy could barely contain their sense of satisfaction when the three-day event opened in Guadalajara, Mexico. Why all […]
Lost in Extrapolation
Lost in Extrapolation Phillips Curve Fail In the late 1970s the impossible happened. Inflation and unemployment simultaneously went vertical. The leading economists of the day were flummoxed. Larry Summers favors us with his “eternal stagnation” shrug. The man is a sheer inexhaustible fount of truly atrocious ideas. As we have previously pointed out, when he’s […]
The Shocking Reality: This Chart Shows Just How Bad Unemployment Is Today Compared to The Great Depression
The Shocking Reality: This Chart Shows Just How Bad Unemployment Is Today Compared to The Great Depression (Desperate Americans stand in soup kitchen lines and look for work. Circa 1929) While the Obama administration and their mainstream surrogates maintain that the economy is growing at a booming pace, the reality of the situation is starkly different. […]
The Dangerous Illusion That Risk Can Be Offloaded Onto Others
The Dangerous Illusion That Risk Can Be Offloaded Onto Others This confidence in central banks raises a pernicious systemic risk. Do you drive carelessly because your auto is equipped with airbags? Perhaps not. But would you drive more cautiously if you were perched on the front bumper? If even the slightest collision would crush the driver’s […]
Friday job numbers may tell tales GDP missed: Don Pittis
Friday job numbers may tell tales GDP missed: Don Pittis Stats could show if slump is over and whether there is a rebound outside the oil industry Opponents in the battle over whether the Canadian economy is collapsing or clawing its way back to recovery will get more ammunition on Friday. That’s when we learn the latest figures on job […]
Is China’s “Black Box” Economy About to Come Apart?
Is China’s “Black Box” Economy About to Come Apart? A China crisis will de-stabilize the world After 30 years of torrid expansion, perhaps the single most consequential factor in China’s economy is how much of it is a “black box”: a system with visible inputs and outputs whose internal workings are opaque. There are number […]
Bad Debt Soars 35% In China As Government Set To Fabricate Dismal Loan Data
Bad Debt Soars 35% In China As Government Set To Fabricate Dismal Loan Data Back in March, we noted that decelerating economic growth and bad debt are taking a toll on profitability at China’s largest banks, leading them to slash payouts to shareholders. “Particularly hard hit is ABC, which saw its non-performing loans jump 25bps Q/Q,” we […]
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics The government released their monthly CPI report this week. Even though it came in at an annualized rate of 3.6%, they and their mouthpieces in the corporate mainstream media dutifully downplayed the uptrend. They can’t let the plebs know the truth. That might upend their economic recovery storyline and put […]
Lab rats and the corruption of how we count
Lab rats and the corruption of how we count There’s an old joke about lab rats in which the teller says he or she secretly suspects that all lab rats are prone to cancer and so all research about the risk of cancer in humans based on tests in rats is likely useless. The Committee for […]
U.S. Oil Glut An EIA Invention?
U.S. Oil Glut An EIA Invention? In the latest weekly production data from the EIA, on the back of recent March revisions, the U.S. managed to post a 76,000 barrel per day increase in the lower 48. Production from Alaska fell by 61,000 barrels per day, putting overall U.S. output 15,000 barrels per day higher for the […]
If Your BS Detector Isn’t Shrieking, It’s Broken
If Your BS Detector Isn’t Shrieking, It’s Broken Wishing it was true doesn’t make it true–it makes you a chump who fell for the con. Once upon a time in America, no adult could survive without possessing a finely tuned BS detector. Herman Melville masterfully captured America’s fascination with cons and con artists in his 1857 […]
2 Things That Are Happening Right Now That Have Never Happened Outside Of A Recession
2 Things That Are Happening Right Now That Have Never Happened Outside Of A Recession If we are not heading into a recession, why does our economy continue to act as if that is precisely what is happening? As you will see below, we learned this week that factory orders have declined year over year for […]
A Recession Within A Recession
A Recession Within A Recession On Friday, the federal government announced that the U.S. economy contracted at a 0.7 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2015. This unexpected shrinking of the economy is being primarily blamed on “harsh” weather during the first three months of this year and on the strengthening of the […]
Inaccurate statistics and the threat to bonds
Inaccurate statistics and the threat to bonds Statistics have become very misleading: in particular we are being badly misled into believing that the US is teetering on the edge of price deflation, because the US official rate of inflation is barely positive, a level that US bonds and therefore all other financial markets have priced […]
