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“The Big Short’s” Steve Eisman Is Shorting UK Banks, Expecting A Hard Brexit

Amid fresh reports that Theresa May may have a “secret” Brexit deal up her sleeve, one that would finally allow her to secure a deal that could win parliamentary approval thanks to a major concession from the European Union, one famous trader isn’t buying it.

Speaking at a conference in Dubai on Sunday, “The Big Short’s” Steve Eisman said that he is shorting two U.K. banks on expectations of a hard Brexit. Eisman said that the U.K. is one of the biggest risks Eisman is watching, and while he declined to name the two banks he is shorting, he said that he expects the U.K. government to agree its exit from the bloc, but that Parliament is likely to reject the deal after that, Bloomberg reported.

“I’m shorting two stocks in the U.K., but I’ve got a screen of about 50, and I might short all 50 if I think Jeremy Corbyn is going to be prime minister,” Eisman said. “Corbyn’s a Trotskyite. Now I know my Trotskyites well and I know you don’t want to be invested in the U.K. if a Trotskyite is prime minister.”

While Eisman didn’t hint which banks he’s targeting, Bloomberg notes citing Markit data that Metro Bank and CYBG are the most shorted financials in the FTSE 350 Index. Metro has 7.9% of its outstanding shares shorted, double the ratio at CYBG. Eisman also said that he’s still shorting Tesla, despite the carmaker’s impressive surge since reporting strong results.

British and European negotiators remain locked in talks to break the deadlock over how the UK will exit the EU with just five months left before the deadline. The uncertainty prompted more than 70 business leaders, from lastminute.com founder Martha Lane Fox and former J. Sainsbury Plc chief Justin King, to sign a letter arguing that both the government’s current plans, and a no-deal Brexit, would be bad for companies and jobs.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Consequences of System Failure

The Consequences of System Failure

In short, every major political institution has been increasingly discredited as Brazil has spiraled deeper and deeper into a dark void. And from the abyss emerged a former army captain and six-term congressman from Rio de Janeiro, Jair Bolsonaro, with the slogan “Brazil above everything, God above everyone,” and promises to fix everything with hardline tactics.

– From today’s Intercept article: Jair Bolsonaro Is Elected President of Brazil. Read His Extremist, Far-Right Positions in His Own Words.

It’s been only a little over two years since the people of Great Britain surprised the world by voting to leave the European Union. Just a few months later, this nascent trend of political shock continued with the election of Donald Trump.

This tectonic shift toward political upheaval has continued to spread throughout much of the world, with Italy and Brazil being two more recent examples. That something very major and very global is happening is undeniable at this point, yet everyone seems to have their own pet reasons for why it’s occurring. I continue to stick to the same thesis I’ve had for nearly a decade, which is that the dominant global economic/financial paradigm led and managed by the U.S. has failed and is experiencing a slow, painful and dangerous death.

This reality was temporarily papered over by the shady and extremely corrupt financial bailouts of a decade ago. An event that focused all government resources on rescuing the already rich and powerful, while keeping bank executives out of prison.


They claim they “prevented another Great Depression.”
In reality, they just bailed themselves out and created the wild political environment we have today.


Ten years ago, all of America’s resources were irresponsibly and aggressively marshaled toward the sole purpose of resuscitating a dead system and keeping it on life support.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Blain: “Liquidity Will Be The Murder Weapon”

“Slain, after all man’s devices had failed, by the humblest things that God, in his wisdom, has put upon this earth””

After last week’s stock market ructions, my market spidey senses are tingling… https://morningporridge.com/stuff-im-watching

In the headlights this morning:

  • Saudi Arabia: forget the IPO and worry about MbS threating an oil war if the West doesn’t let him murder whomever he doesn’t like. $100 by year end?
  • Brexit: The next millennium bug? Very good interview on Andrew Marr show with head of Next outlined a no-deal will be less than optimal, but it won’t be a disaster. Lets get on with it.
  • Germany: Merkel’s affiliate party takes a pasting in Bavaria. Who is out a job first? Merkel or May?
  • Trumpland: It’s the Fed’s fault. “I know more about markets than anyone else..” Blahbity blah blah blah.. That man never ceases to amuse us.

Thought for the day: “It’s always about politics..”

Market Psychology

I’ve never met a stupid chief investment officer*, but market moves never cease to bemuse me. Market perceptions seldom reflect economic reality. The “group-think” that is the market’s collective mind doesn’t have the time to ponder the deeper implications of news and events – it spontaneously reacts to headlines. The group psychology of markets swings from profoundly fearful to over-exuberant in a heartbeat.

At the moment the mood remains profoundly negative – reflecting very scared traders. The stock market’s crash, the news flow, the IMF and others predicting a slowing global economy, Italy vs Brussels, Brexit – and its doom’n’gloom all round. A few bright spots of news, like Brazil, aren’t improving sentiment. The market believed we were doomed on Thursday and saved by Friday. This morning the coin flip says: “we’re all dead by Wednesday.” Risk-off then?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Maybe a rethink from Brussels?

The entire fabric of the European Union is under threat while the hierarchy in Brussels sleepwalks into yet another crisis.

The UK is highly likely to walk away from further Brexit negotiations, Italy which once survived on a diet of high interest rates and high inflation is threatening to blow the whole fiscal responsibility demanded by the ECB apart and the rise in nationalism and demands for a curb on immigration, which was until recently actively encouraged by Germany, continues to be “kicked into the long grass”.

It may just be time for Messrs Juncker and Tusk to re-examine their roles in these crises and to consider the intransigence that has been born from trying to run on so many fronts before it can walk.

Ten years ago, I gave a radio interview in Dubai about my feelings for the longevity of the euro. I made a comment that lived with me for many years, saying that “I would live longer than the euro”. Those words dogged me for quite a while but now I firmly believe again that the state of my health far outweighs that of the common currency despite the Italian Prime Minister calling it “unrenounceable”.

The issues will continue to pile up since trying to govern 28 states (after Brexit) using treaties that become out of date in a modern world almost before the ink is dry and having 28 different points of view on every subject is unworkable.

Furthermore, the absolute basis of the EU, the four freedoms, have become a millstone around the neck of anyone trying to negotiate. If there was no freedom of movement, for example, it is almost certain there would be no Brexit. Even if the UK had still voted for Brexit how much easier would negotiations have been without the Irish border issue?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gross Incompetence

Jean-Léon Gérôme Truth Coming Out of Her Well to Shame Mankind 1896

Here’s the lowdown: the EU’s single market mechanism dictates freedom of movement for labor, capital, services and goods. These are not divisible; you cannot have one without the other. Still, that’s precisely what Theresa May, again, is proposing. She basically wants to keep the UK in the single market for goods, and make other arrangements for the rest. The EU will not accept that because it could have 27 other countries coming with their own versions of single market à la carte.

So why does she come with version 826 of what she already knows will not be accepted? And why did her cabinet comply? There are a few possibilities. Perhaps May has finally understood that there is no manner of leaving the EU left to her that will not lead to utter disaster. Maybe she just wants the whole thing to stop. Or maybe Boris Johnson et al, sensing failure for May, see a chance to dethrone her and take over power. Then again, maybe they all look for a way to blame the EU for their own failures.

It’s hard to say, really. What’s obvious, through the comments of industries like Airbus and Jaguar Land Rover, is that 100,000s of jobs are at stake, along with 100s of billions of investments in Britain. Large enterprises are often branched out all through the EU, and they need to comply with EU rules; separate rules for their business with the UK would be a nightmare.

And even smaller companies, to varying degrees, face those same problems. For all you may think of the EU, it has arranged the single market strictly and successfully. There are enormous advantages for companies in that. Take those away and they will look at relocating towards the continent, where they would regain those advantages.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

What The “Doomsday Brexit Plan” Document Says Should Frighten Us All

This is the first paragraph of The Times article (paywall) regarding Britain’s now famous Doomsday Brexit plan.

Britain would be hit with shortages of medicine, fuel and food within a fortnight if the UK tries to leave the European Union without a deal, according to a Doomsday Brexit scenario drawn up by senior civil servants for David Davis.

The Times confirms that the port of Dover will collapse “on day one” if Britain crashes out of the EU, leading to critical shortages of supplies. This was the middle of three scenarios put forward by senior advisors. A type of best guestimate if you like. You simply do not want to know the outcome of the worst of those three scenarios. Indeed, we have been spared from such details.

The article states that the RAF would have to be deployed to ferry supplies around Britain. And yes, we’re still on the middle scenario here. You would have to medevac medicine into Britain, and at the end of week two we would be running out of petrol as well,” a contributing source said.

The report continues to describe matters such as cross-channel disruption for heavy goods vehicles, which would also be catastrophic.Massive carparks will be required.

A senior official said in the ‘Doomsday’ Brexit plan:

We are entirely dependent on Europe reciprocating our posture that we will do nothing to impede the flow of goods into the UK. If for whatever reason, Europe decides to slow that supply down, then we’re screwed.

Let’s not worry about the fact that French borders are often left in chaos due to the all too familiar strikes that appear almost monthly during holiday season for one reason or another.

Home secretary Sajid Javid makes an unconvincing comment stating he’s ‘confident’ a deal will be done. That’s hardly the type of assurance we need is it?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is Britain sleepwalking into a food crisis?

Image: Andrew Stawarz, CC BY-ND 2.0

On May 8th the government will end its consultation period on a new agricultural policy for England. Revealingly, its policy document – called ‘Health and Harmony: The future for food, farming and the environment in a Green Brexit’– has more to say about the environment than either food or farming. The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) wishes to end the direct subsidies that farmers have received under European Union policies, and environmental schemes are at the heart of its proposals.  The policy seems likely to go through, with firm support from environmental groups.

But this is curious in two ways. Policy for the environmental consequences of agriculture is very important.  As we read this week, “In the past 50 years in Britain, through the intensification of agriculture, we have destroyed well over half of our biodiversity, and the populations of birds, butterflies and wild flowers that once gave the landscape such animation and thrilling life have been utterly devastated”.

The measures will be beneficial and they flow on from those of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), 87 per cent of which in England now goes to agri-environment schemes. However, they mainly concern indirect effects of agriculture. DEFRA has little to say about its immediate impacts on the soil itself and through emissions of methane and other greenhouse gases. The report’s 64 pages make no mention of the damage done to soils by modern industrial agriculture as such.

Soil scientists now understand the varied roles that soil microbes play in these areas and more: nutrient cycling; carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus utilisation; carbon sequestration; methane mitigation; soil fertility; and plant nutrient density. Carbon sequestration means a healthy soil will counter climate change since it absorbs carbon dioxide. This has stimulated a farming method called regenerative agriculture, which rebuilds organic matter and restores biodiversity in the soil, ‘resulting in both carbon drawdown and improving the water cycle.’ But DEFRA says nothing about that.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

1984 Is Not The Future


Jacobello Alberegno The Beast of the Apocalypse 1360-90
 

The Guardian ran an article yesterday by one of its editors, David Shariatmadari, that both proves and disproves its own theme at the same time: “An Information Apocalypse Is Coming”. Now, I don’t fancy the term apocalypse in a setting like this, it feels too much like going for a cheap thrill, but since he used it, why not.

My first reaction to the headline, and the article, is: what do you mean it’s ‘coming’? Don’t you think we have such an apocalypse already, that we’re living it, we’re smack in the middle of such a thing? If you don’t think so, would that have anything to do with you working at a major newspaper? Or with your views of the world, political and other, that shape how you experience ‘information’?

Shariatmadari starts out convincingly and honestly enough with a description of a speech that JFK was supposed to give in Dallas right after he was murdered, a speech that has been ‘resurrected’ using technology that enables one to make it seem like he did deliver it.

An Information Apocalypse Is Coming. How Can We Protect Ourselves?

“In a world of complex and continuing problems, in a world full of frustrations and irritations, America’s leadership must be guided by the lights of learning and reason, or else those who confuse rhetoric with reality, and the plausible with the possible will gain the popular ascendancy with their seemingly swift and simple solutions to every world problem.”

John F Kennedy’s last speech reads like a warning from history, as relevant today as it was when it was delivered in 1963 at the Dallas Trade Mart. His rich, Boston Brahmin accent reassures us even as he delivers the uncomfortable message. The contrast between his eloquence and the swagger of Donald Trump is almost painful to hear.

Yes, Kennedy’s words are lofty ones, and they do possess at least some predictive qualities. But history does play a part too. Would we have read the same in them that we do now, had Kennedy not been shot right before he could deliver them? Hard to tell.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Was Russian Spy Poisoned To Avert Brexit?

In July 2003, Dr. David Kelly, a British weapons inspector who disclosed to the media that Tony Blair’s government’s dossier on Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction was “sexed up,” was found dead in a public park a mile away from his home.

The inquiry into his death concluded Kelly had committed suicide by slitting his left wrist but the mystery surrounding his death has remained unresolved to date, though the obvious beneficiary of his propitious “suicide” was the British intelligence itself.

More recently, Sergei Skripal, a Russian double agent working for the British foreign intelligence service, and his daughter Yulia were found unconscious on a public bench outside a shopping center in Salisbury on March 4.

Eight days later, another Russian exile Nikolai Glushkov was found dead in his London home and the cause of his death has not been ascertained yet.

In the case of Skripal, Theresa May promptly accused Kremlin of attempted assassination.

There are a couple of caveats, however.

Firstly, though Skripal was a double agent working for MI6, he was released in a spy swap deal in 2010. Had he been a person of importance, Kremlin would not have released him and let him settle in the UK in the first place.

Secondly, British government has concluded that Skripal and his daughter were poisoned with a Moscow-made, military-grade nerve agent, novichok.

A question naturally arises – why would Kremlin leave a smoking gun evidence behind that would lead prosecutors straight to Moscow when their assassins could have used a gun or a knife to accomplish the task?

Leaving mainstream media’s conspiracy theories aside, these assassination attempts should be viewed in the wider backdrop of the Brexit debate.

Both NATO and European Union were conceived during the Cold War to offset the influence of former Soviet Union in Europe. It is not a coincidence that the Soviet Union was dissolved in December 1991 and the Maastricht Treaty that consolidated the European Community and laid the foundations of the European Union was signed in February 1992.

The basic purpose of the EU has been nothing more than to lure the formerly communist states of the Eastern and Central Europe into the folds of the Western capitalist bloc by offering incentives and inducements, particularly in the form of agreements to abolish internal border checks between the EU member states, thus allowing the free movement of labor from the impoverished Eastern Europe to the prosperous countries of the Western Europe.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Forget About Catalonia And Brexit, The Next European Black Swan Could Be Transylvania

Over the past 100 years, the borders in Central and Eastern Europe have been redrawn time and time again, often leaving groups of people separated from their home country by new borders. Although land often changed hands relatively peacefully, suddenly finding one-selves as an ethnic minority in a new country was bound to lead to tension and resentment.

Transylvania
Walle1886 / Pixabay

While these resentments may reveal real disenfranchisement of ethnic minorities in Central Europe, politicians, especially populist figures, have seized on the outsider narratives inherent in the diaspora experience.

As the April 2018 election approaches in Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been reaching out to the Hungarian minority in Romania, drawing criticism from Romanian leaders, while his supporters insist he is trying to lend his support Hungarians everywhere.

Rooted in History

Tensions between Romania and Hungary can be traced back to World War I and the Treaty of Trianon.

Although the Treaty of Trianon ended hostilities between the Allied Powers and the Kingdom of Hungary, the peace came at a great price to the Austro-Hungarian successor state. Hungary lost 2/3rd of its population and territory, leaving the former imperial hub landlocked in the heart of Central Europe. Most of its territory was ceded to Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, and Romania, as well as Austria, Italy, and Poland. Romania was granted the entire region of Transylvania, where an estimated 1.3 million ethnic Hungarians reside, making Hungarians Romania’s largest minority.

The loss of such a large chunk of territory and population would certainly leave its mark on national memory. Recently in Hungary, politicians have been revitalizing this narrative.

Magyarorszag 1920.png
By derivative work: CoolKoon (talk)
Hungary1910-1920.png: The original uploader was Fz22 at English Wikipedia
(Original text: fz22 (talk)) – Hungary1910-1920.png, CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Grexit

GREXIT

QUESTION: I just read an article about Grexit and the MoU that expires in the summer of 2018. Let’s assume Greece exits EU and the Euro, what would happen to Greece and it’s people? What hardships would Grexit bring to the Greek people and what could individual Greeks do to prepare themselves for these hardships?

Thanks for your blog.
Greetings from Greece!
Cheers,

J

ANSWER: Things will be much brighter once Greece gets out of the Euro. Brussels is desperately trying to keep Greece in the Eurozone for their survival, not what is best for Greece. The major data is published by various agencies that are directly or dependent upon government and they will always champion staying in the Eurozone. If you look beyond those headlines, you see a different picture. Most of our clients in Britain who were against BREXIT, now report that things are much better. Themanufacturing industry experienced a job boom in the last quarter. Compared Q3 2016, the job market data with that for 2017 showed that the manufacturing sector witnessed a 24% increase in advertised vacancies over the past 12 months. Jobs have been created in Britain at a faster pace since the BREXIT vote, despite the headlines of the fake news.

I have explained before that when Britain abandoned the gold standard in 1931, they instantly recovered from the Great Depression. This was the case study that George Warren used to demonstrate to Roosevelt that the dollar had to be devalued to reverse the economic decline. Maintaining the gold standard back then was the equivalent of “austerity” imposed upon Europe by Germany. Everyone just gets this whole issue of currency and the Quantity of Money dead wrong. The Austrian School of economics predates the massive government debt era. Today, the government is the biggest borrower within society and they compete against the private sector reducing economic growth.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ray Dalio’s Shorting The Entire EU


Salvator Rosa Heroic battle 1652
A point BOE Governor Mark Carney made recently may be the biggest cog in the European Union’s wheel (or is it second biggest? Read on). That is, derivatives clearing. It’s one of the few areas where Brussels stands to lose much more than London, but it’s a big one. And Carney puts a giant question mark behind the EU’s preparedness.

Carney Reveals Europe’s Potential Achilles Heel in Brexit Talks

Carney explained why Europe’s financial sector is more at risk than the UK from a “hard” or “no-deal” Brexit. [..] When asked does the European Council “get it” in terms of potential shocks to financial stability, Carney diplomatically commented that “a learning process is underway.” Having sounded alarm bells about clearing in his last Mansion House speech, he noted “These costs of fragmenting clearing, particularly clearing of interest rate swaps, would be born principally by the European real economy and they are considerable.”

Calling into question the continuity of tens of thousands of derivative contracts , he stated that it was “pretty clear they will no longer be valid”, that this “could only be solved by both sides” and has been “underappreciated” by Europe . Carney had a snipe at Europe for its lack of preparation “We are prepared as we should be for the possibility of a hard exit without any transition…there has been much less of that done in the European Union.”

In Carneys view “It’s in the interest of the EU 27 to have a transition agreement. Also, in my judgement given the scale of the issues as they affect the EU 27, that there will ultimately be a transition agreement. There is a very limited amount of time between now and the end of March 2019 to transition large, complex institutions and activities…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The European Union Is Doomed to Fail

The European Union Is Doomed to Fail

How on earth can the European Union unite that which history forced asunder?

Have you ever heard of Deutsch Jahrndorf? No? I don’t blame you. The tiny Austrian village, which is situated four miles from the Danube, is utterly unremarkable, except for the fact that it sits on the border of three countries. To the east is Slovakia. To the south lies Hungary. As such, within shouting distance of one another, live three peoples speaking completely unintelligible languages. Austria belongs to the West Germanic language group, Hungary to Finno-Ugric and Slovakia to West Slavic.

I thought about the exquisitely rich tapestry of European languages, cultures, customs, and nationalities as I watched the sad spectacle of Spanish riot police and Catalan separatists confronting one another on the streets of Barcelona. How on earth can the European Union unite that which history forced asunder?

The Folly of the EU

The European Union, French President Emmanuel Macron has recently declared to almost universal acclaim, needs more unity, including the creation of “a eurozone budget managed by a eurozone parliament and a eurozone finance minister”.

Therein lies the conundrum of European unification.

The need for the centralization of power in Brussels is, apparently, the lesson that the EU establishment has learned from the outcome of the British referendum on EU membership. Meanwhile, in Catalonia, millions of people have set their sights on independence from Spain. Foremost among their complaints is that the Catalan budget is influenced by Madrid.

Independence, the Catalans feel, will rectify a grave injustice occasioned by the French capture of Barcelona in 1714. The conqueror, Duke of Anjou, became the first Bourbon king of Spain under the name of Philip V. His descendant, Philip VI, is on the throne today. In Europe, ancient lineages last as long as ancient resentments.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Trump, the CIA and the Yokeldom


Jackson Pollock The Deep 1943
 

 

The western world is mired in a mile-deep political crisis and nary a soul seems to notice, or rather: everyone just sees their own little preferred echochamber tidbits of it. Which is not a good thing, because that crisis is bound to trigger other bigger crises that are much more damaging. And I’m sorry to say it, but Donald Trump is not your main problem. Not even close.

The main problem is the collapse of western political systems. While that is what brought Trump to power in the first place, he didn’t cause the collapse. The collapse is also what ‘gave you’ Brexit, and Trump didn’t cause that either. Moreover, in the next step, on the far end of all this, Trump may well be the only thing standing between you and CIA warfare. I know, who wants to hear that, right?! Who’s ready for that next step?

But it’s not that crazy. Trump was the one who stopped the CIA from arming Syrian ‘rebels’, which are just a bunch of extremists gathered by that same CIA in its attempts to unseat Assad, and who Trump saw laughingly beheading a child. And who was it that had previously, and enthusiastically, decided to support these crazies? The US Republican and Democratic parties, in unison, while Obama was president and Hillary slash Joe Biden was Secretary of State. Remember the Chelsea Manning footage of videogame-like drone killings? What did Obama do about that?

Still, that’s not where the core of the demise of our political systems lies. Though it does gave us a flavor of their priorities. The core can be found in economic issues. In both president Bush II and president Obama bailing out banks while letting people’s incomes and wealth tank, and not sueing any banker for anything at all. Obviously, the same scenario played out in Britain as well. And in many other nations.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Blowout Week 172

Blowout Week 172

In this week’s Blowout we return to Brexit and its  impacts. It is now reported that following Brexit the UK will “scale down its concern over climate change” and scrap the EU’s 15%-of-total-energy-from-renewables-by-2020 target. Can outright repeal of the 2008 Climate Change Act be far behind?

Telegraph: Britain preparing to scrap EU green energy targets after Brexit

The UK is currently committed to getting 15 per cent of all energy from renewable sources such as wind and solar by 2020. The UK is currently on course to miss the target and incur millions of pounds in fines from the European Union.

Government sources told The Daily Telegraph that the target, under the EU Renewable Energy Directive, is likely to be scrapped after Brexit. It comes after civil service documents, photographed on a train, revealed that Britain plans to scale down its concern over climate change after Brexit. Details of the policy change were contained in the papers of a senior civil servant at the Department for International Trade (DIT) photographed by a passenger earlier this month. The notes say: “Trade and growth are now priorities for all posts — you will all need to prioritise developing capability in this area. Some economic security-related work like climate change and illegal wildlife trade will be scaled down.” The target has led to billions of pounds Government subsidies for renewable power sources such as wind, solar and biomass power plants, which are ultimately paid for by customers through their energy bills. The National Audit Office estimated that green energy subsidies will cost every household £110 a year by 2020.

We follow up with the usual mix of energy and related stories from all over the world, including how OPEC cheated on production cuts, the North Sea revival, Japan makes natural gas from methane hydrates, the growth of nuclear subsidies in the US, more US underground nuclear waste storage planned,

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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