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Event Risk
Event Risk In rare moments markets face major event risk, in even rarer moments the event risk is well advertised in advance and the risk implies massive potential moves in either direction.Markets are faced with such a moment right now: The outcome of the China negotiations. Ever since Donald Trump tweeted out new tariff threats […]
The Fed Is the Bubble
The Fed Is the Bubble Occam’s Razor: The simplest explanation is often the best explanation. In this case: The Fed panicked in December and by caving to markets reignited the bubble in a major way and now they are losing control as they are trapped and twisted in their own narratives. No rate hikes until […]
Get Real
Get Real The final phase of a bull cycle is the most deceiving. It is the time when things are at their best, optimism runs wild, equities can do no wrong and any warning signs are dismissed as equity price action valiantly defies the reality that is to come. It is also a time when […]
Combustion
Combustion This is all going to end badly, even some ardent bulls will freely admit this, the question is the how, when and the where. Frankly it’s a tragedy that’s unfolding and discerning eyes can see it. Since the December lows markets have taken the scripted route higher salivating at the prospect of dovish central […]
The Reckoning
The Reckoning The big macro wheels are turning and everybody better pay very close attention. The Reckoning is coming. Best hope for a substantive China trade deal and a last minute save on Brexit to perhaps delay the inevitable: The Coming Recession. This week’s full frontal capitulation by the Fed has not only removed a key […]
The End of Trust
The End of Trust I worry about America. When I was young, despite all its problems, America was greater than life, always beaming with optimism with a vision of a better future always ahead. Now that I’m getting older I’m very much unsure. Maybe I now know so much more than when I was younger, […]
The CONfidence Game
The CONfidence Game The global economic landscape remains weak yet there appears to be no concern on the side of bulls and investors alike, so firm is the belief that the earnings recession that is unfolding is temporary, so firm is the belief that dovish central bankers can once again prevent any downside. I get […]
Highway to the Danger Zone
Highway to the Danger Zone On Thursday markets nearly broke their uptrend from the December lows, but once again a magic Friday overnight gap up driven by renewed hopes for an imminent China-US trade deal and supported by 9 Fed speakers trampling all over themselves to out dove each other alongside a flood of buyback […]
Rant Alert
Rant Alert Warning. Rant Alert: The global central bank easy money experiment has failed and it is past time that central bankers stopped bullshitting us and just admitted it. Europe is about to enter a recession and rates are still negative, the US Fed just tried to reduce its balance sheet with the greatest economic […]
An Obituary: Fred Credibility
An Obituary: Fred Credibility As with many terminal patients the initial hope is that aggressive treatment would work and cure the patient. But when the one time emergency round of drugs didn’t cure the patient additional drugs were needed and turned the patient into a hopeless junkie. After multiple injections a sense of dread was […]
Screwed
Screwed James Madison: “We are free today substantially but the day will come when our Republic will be an impossibility. It will be an impossibility because wealth will be concentrated in the hands of a few.” The tax cut has now been shown the very scam I outlined it to be in 2017. Debt is soaring and […]
The Hidden Revelation
The Hidden Revelation The current government shutdown (the longest in history) comes with a hidden revelation: Millions of Americans are financially unprepared for the next economic downturn. Worse, they are highly vulnerable with few protections. 10 years after the financial crisis the economic recovery has left millions behind with little to no savings and the […]
Power Trendlines
Power Trendlines Market action is heavily dominated by algorithmic trading and programs. Nothing new about that and it’s a reality of the market environment. In December algos were blamed for the steep sell-off, nobody is blaming them during the massive bounce off of the December lows. Funny that. Irony aside knowing where these algos live […]
The Ugly Truth
The Ugly Truth For years critics of central bank policy have been dismissed as negative nellies, but the ugly truth is staring us all in the face: Market advances remain a game of artificial liquidity and central bank jawboning and not organic growth and now the jig is up. As I’ve been saying for a […]
Mind Blowing
Mind Blowing We’re in one of the longest economic expansion cycles in history and nobody’s happy. It’s mind blowing. You’d think 2018 would have people dancing in the streets. 3.7% unemployment, record stock market prices. Well the ladder until recently that is. So let me rephrase: What happens if you have record buybacks, record dividends, […]
