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Why the New EIA Forecast Is Unrealistic
Why the New EIA Forecast Is Unrealistic The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy has just released its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2018, with forecasts for American oil, gas and other forms of energy production through mid-century. As usual, energy journalists and policy makers will probably take the document as gospel. […]
What’s The Limit For Permian Oil Production?
What’s The Limit For Permian Oil Production? The ‘hottest shale play’ has been the media’s favorite cliché for the Permian Basin over the past year. And while cliché, the basin straddling West Texas and New Mexico has lived up to this description—its oil production, unlike that in other basins, did not fall off a cliff […]
New NASA Study Solves Climate Mystery, Confirms Methane Spike Tied to Oil and Gas
New NASA Study Solves Climate Mystery, Confirms Methane Spike Tied to Oil and Gas Over the past few years, natural gas has become the primary fuel that America uses to generate electricity, displacing the long-time king of fossil fuels, coal. In 2019, more than a third of America’s electrical supply will come from natural gas, […]
Is The EIA Overestimating The U.S. Shale Boom?
Is The EIA Overestimating The U.S. Shale Boom? The American shale boom may be overstated by the U.S. Energy Department, according to a new MIT study that suggests the agency may be over-attributing a rise in shale drilling to technological advances. “The EIA is assuming that productivity of individual wells will continue to rise as […]
World’s No.1 Oil Trader: U.S. To See Final Oil Output Spike In 2018
World’s No.1 Oil Trader: U.S. To See Final Oil Output Spike In 2018 The best is yet to come for US oil production—but it will be a short-lived hurrah, according to Ian Taylor, head of oil trading giant Vitol. US oil production has steadily increased throughout 2017 as US drillers regained their footing after the […]
Energy and Authoritarianism
Energy and Authoritarianism Could declining world energy result in a turn toward authoritarianism by governments around the world? As we will see, there is no simple answer that applies to all countries. However, pursuing the question leads us on an illuminating journey through the labyrinth of relations between energy, economics, and politics. The International Energy […]
U.S. Shale’s Most Productive Play May Peak By 2021
U.S. Shale’s Most Productive Play May Peak By 2021 The world’s top shale play, the Permian, has shown remarkable resilience amid the lower-for-longer oil prices. Permian production has grown and should continue its rise into the foreseeable future. Technological advances spurred the rapid rise of the Permian, but as drillers are set to continuously develop […]
Risk, double-edged swords and imagining the worst
Risk, double-edged swords and imagining the worst A friend of mine recently said that intellectual honesty often requires imagining the worst. Of course, in the study of climate change and natural resources one needs only to read the analyses of scientists to imagine the worst. Imagining the worst in not necessarily the same as believing the […]
Energy Wars of Attrition: The Irony of Oil Abundance
Energy Wars of Attrition: The Irony of Oil Abundance Three and a half years ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) triggered headlines around the world by predicting that the United States would overtake Saudi Arabia to become the world’s leading oil producer by 2020 and, together with Canada, would become a net exporter of oil around 2030. Overnight, […]
IA’s Dire Oil Forecast: $34 Crude Due To Far More Resilient Production, Oversupply And Lower Demand
IA’s Dire Oil Forecast: $34 Crude Due To Far More Resilient Production, Oversupply And Lower Demand Now that the massive USO-driven squeeze appears to be over (congratulations to whoever managed to sell equity and their secured lenders) the bad news can return. First, it was Goldman slamming the “unsustainable rally, and then just a few hours […]
U.S. Has Too Much Oil. So Why Are Imports Rising?
U.S. Has Too Much Oil. So Why Are Imports Rising? Despite domestic production declining and demand surging, the EIA reported oil inventories surge by more than 10 million barrels, or more than three times what was expected. The 10.4 million barrel increase was mostly due to a near record increase in imports of 490,000 b/d […]
World outside US and Canada doesn’t produce more crude oil than in 2005
World outside US and Canada doesn’t produce more crude oil than in 2005 After a delay of several months the US Energy Information Administration has published the latest international energy statistics for October 2015 This is an opportunity to update crude oil graphs http://crudeoilpeak.info/latest-graphs Fig 1: World’s incremental crude oil production How Fig 1 is created: for […]
OPEC Will Not Blink First
OPEC Will Not Blink First An OPEC production cut is unlikely until U.S. production declines by about another million barrels per day (mmbpd). OPEC won’t cut because it would accomplish nothing beyond a short-term increase in price. Carefully placed comments by OPEC and Russian oil ministers about the possibility of production cuts achieve almost the […]
