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The Consequences of Budget Deficits For International Trade
THE CONSEQUENCES OF BUDGET DEFICITS FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE In all the economic mayhem ahead, no one is yet thinking of the consequences for trade imbalances. The twin deficit hypothesis informs us that skyrocketing US budget deficits will lead to increasing trade deficits, a situation with serious political consequences. Furthermore, with foreign interests already saturated with […]
Hyperinflation is here
Hyperinflation is here Definition: Hyperinflation is the condition whereby monetary authorities accelerate the expansion of the quantity of money to the point where it proves impossible for them to regain control. It ends when the state’s fiat currency is finally worthless. It is an evolving crisis, not just a climactic event. Summary This article defines […]
The emerging evidence of hyperinflation
The emerging evidence of hyperinflation Note: all references to inflation are of the quantity of money and not to the effect on prices unless otherwise indicated. In last week’s article I showed why empirical evidence of fiat money collapses are relevant to monetary conditions today. In this article I explain why the purchasing power of […]
China is killing the dollar
China is killing the dollar In the wake of the Fed’s promise of 23 March to print money without limit in order to rescue the covid-stricken US economy, China changed its policy of importing industrial materials to a more aggressive stance. In examining the rationale behind this move, this article concludes that while there are […]
Inflation, deflation and other fallacies
Inflation, deflation and other fallacies There can be little doubt that macroeconomic policies are failing around the world. The fallacies being exposed are so entrenched that there are bound to be twists and turns yet to come. This article explains the fallacies behind inflation, deflation, economic performance and interest rates. They arise from the modern […]
An unexpected systemic crisis is for sure
An unexpected systemic crisis is for sure Downturns in bank credit expansion always lead to systemic problems. We are on the edge of such a downturn, which thanks to everyone’s focus on the coronavirus, is unexpected. We can now identify 23 March as the date when markets stopped worrying about deflation and realised that monetary […]
The Eurozone’s financial disintegration
The Eurozone’s financial disintegration Introduction The Euro Crisis Monitor (above) shows the increasing imbalances in the TARGET2 settlement system between all its members: the ECB (itself with a €145bn deficit) and the national central banks in the Eurozone. Other than minor differences reflecting net cross-border trade not matched by investment flows going the other way, […]
Explaining the Credit Cycle
EXPLAINING THE CREDIT CYCLE This article summarises why the credit cycle leads to alternate booms and slumps. It is only with this in mind that they can be properly understood as current economic conditions evolve. The reader is taken through three monetary models: a fixed money economy, one governed by changes in bank credit, and […]
Explaining the credit cycle
Explaining the credit cycle This article summarises why the credit cycle leads to alternate booms and slumps. It is only with this in mind that they can be properly understood as current economic conditions evolve. The reader is taken through three monetary models: a fixed money economy, one governed by changes in bank credit, and […]
The new deal is a bad old deal
The new deal is a bad old deal So far, the current economic situation, together with the response by major governments, compares with the run-in to the depression of the 1930s. Yet to come in the repetitious credit cycle is the collapse in financial asset values and a banking crisis. When the scale of the […]
The path to monetary collapse
The path to monetary collapse Few mainstream commentators understand the seriousness of the economic and monetary situation. from a V-shaped rapid return to normality towards a more prolonged recovery phase. The fact that a liquidity crisis developed in US money markets five months before the virus hit America has been forgotten. Only a rising gold […]
Time to learn about money
Time to learn about money An unexpected destruction of fiat currency has been advanced by the monetary and fiscal response to the coronavirus. Financial markets have yet to discount the possibility of such an outcome, but in the coming months they are likely to awaken to this danger. The question arises as to what will […]
Anatomy of a fiat currency collapse
Anatomy of a fiat currency collapse This article asserts that infinite money-printing is set to destroy fiat currencies far quicker than might be generally thought. This final act of monetary destruction follows a 98% loss of purchasing power for dollars since the London gold pool failed. And now the Fed and other major central banks […]
The destructive force of bank credit
The destructive force of bank credit Commentators routinely confuse the deflationary effects of a contraction of bank credit with the inflationary effects of central bank policies designed to offset it. Central banks always ensure their stimulus is greater, so inflation, not deflation, is always the outcome. In order to understand bank credit, we must enter […]
The looming derivative crisis
The looming derivative crisis The powerful forces of bank credit contraction are at the heart of a rapidly evolving financial crisis in global derivatives, whose gross value is over $600 trillion; an unimaginable sum. Central banks are on course to destroy their currencies through unlimited monetary expansion, lethal for bullion banks with fractionally reserved unallocated […]
