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Total G-3 Central Bank Control – Craig Hemke

Total G-3 Central Bank Control – Craig Hemke   There’s a lot of amazement and wonder at how the “stock market” can be up today with the devastating news out of Texas and the latest North Korean missile launch. Longtime readers of TFMR know exactly how this market levitation is accomplished so this post is […]

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A Mystery Investor Has Made A 262 Million Dollar Bet That The Stock Market Will Crash By October

A Mystery Investor Has Made A 262 Million Dollar Bet That The Stock Market Will Crash By October  One mystery trader has made an extremely large bet that the stock market is going to crash by October, and if he is right he could potentially make up to 262 million dollars on the deal.  Fortunes […]

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Deutsche Bank: The Market’s Current “Metastability” Will Lead To “Cataclysmic Events”

Deutsche Bank: The Market’s Current “Metastability” Will Lead To “Cataclysmic Events” With the VIX slammed at the close of trading on “quad-witch” Friday, sending it just shy of single-digits once again and pushing stocks back in the green in the last seconds of trading, the much discussed topic of (near) record low volatility simply refuses […]

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A Murderous Complacency

A Murderous Complacency Dark omens are circling everywhere in today’s markets murder: a flock of crows ~ Miriam-Webster dictionary Many view the appearance of crows as an omen of death because ravens and crows are scavengers and are generally associated with dead bodies, battlefields, and cemeteries, and they’re thought to circle in large numbers above sites where […]

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Weekly Commentary: Draghi Ready to Fight

Weekly Commentary: Draghi Ready to Fight A few Friday Bloomberg headlines: “Asian Stocks Jump by Most in Four Months on Stimulus Speculation;” “Japanese Stocks Surge by Most in Four Months as Bears Retreat;” “Hong Kong Dollar Jumps Most in 12 Years as Global Stocks Rally.” It was quite a week. Back in early December I […]

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Conspiracy “Fact” – VIX Manipulation Runs The Entire Market

Conspiracy “Fact” – VIX Manipulation Runs The Entire Market Ever since Simon Potter’s 2012 arrival as head of The NYFed’s trading desk, the manipulation of VIX (and thus its reflexive levered tail wagging the algo-driven dog of the indices) has been front-and-center day-after-day in the so-called US equity ‘market’. Since the introduction of VIX ETFs there has […]

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The Market’s “Other” Panic Indicator Just Went Off The Charts

The Market’s “Other” Panic Indicator Just Went Off The Charts With indicators from macro-fundamentals (e.g. retail sales, core capex, inventory-to-sales) to market-oriented measures (VIX levels and backwardation, HY credit spreads, commodity prices) all flashing various colors of dead canary in the coal-mine red, we thought today’s colossal spike in the Arms (TRIN) Index was a notable addition. An Arms Index […]

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What If The “Crash” Is as Rigged as Everything Else?

What If The “Crash” Is as Rigged as Everything Else? Take your pick–here’s three good reasons to engineer a “crash” that benefits the few at the expense of the many. There is an almost touching faith that markets are rigged when they loft higher, but unrigged when they crash. Who’s to say this crash isn’t […]

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The Stock Market’s Panic Potential

The Stock Market’s Panic Potential The Odds Favor a “Warning Shot” Scenario – but there is a “But” As regular readers have probably noticed, we have upped the frequency of our “caution is advised” posts on the stock market in recent weeks in light of the market’s increasingly deteriorating internals. Although one never knows when […]

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Wedges and Triangles: Big Move Ahead?

Wedges and Triangles: Big Move Ahead?  The central bank high is euphoric, the crash and burn equally epic. Just out of curiosity, I called up a few charts of key markets: stocks (the S&P 500), volatility (VIX), gold and the U.S. dollar (UUP, an exchange-traded fund for the dollar). Interestingly, all of these charts displayed some […]

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charles hugh smith-The Rubber Band Is Stretched–Will It Break?

charles hugh smith-The Rubber Band Is Stretched–Will It Break?. A rubber band can remain stretched for some time, but it takes some force to keep it stretched. The consensus is anticipating a smooth sleigh ride for Santa’s traditional stock market rally from November to year-end. But the rubber band of the current rally is looking quite […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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