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While the Catalan people prepare to decide whether to break with Spain, the bond market appears to have already made its mind up as Catalonia bonds decouple from Spanish sovereign yields.

Catalonia Bonds expiring next year have seen yields spike over 2% – the highest in over a year – and more than 230bps higher than the equivalent Spanish sovereign bond yields…

As The FT reports, in a special report released earlier this week, Rabobank’s Maartje Wijffelaars warned that “the relationship between Madrid and Barcelona has exponentially worsened in the past months, and it’s unclear how to put the genie back in the bottle”.

And judging by the Catalan police concerns, this will get a lot worse before it gets any better…

As France24 reports, Catalan police warned Wednesday that public disorder may erupt as Spain orders the authorities to seal polling stations and stop the region holding a referendum on independence.

Late on Tuesday, Catalonia’s chief prosecutor ordered the force to seal off buildings that will house polling stations before Sunday’s referendum which Madrid has declared illegal.

But such a step “could lead to undesirable consequences,” the Mossos d’Esquadra warned in a posting on Twitter on Wednesday.

“These consequences refer to public security and to the more than foreseeable risk of a disruption of public order that this may generate.”

The prosecutor also ordered police to deploy officers on the day of the ballot to prevent people from voting.

The order puts intense pressure on the regional police who are caught between their loyalty to local Catalan leaders who are pushing ahead with the referendum and their pledge to uphold the law.

Ignacio Gonzalez, a spokesman for Judges for Democracy, said it was “feasible” for police to seal polling stations.

“The problem is the unrest that this could cause,” he told AFP.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Kurds in Iraq and Syria: a new chaos is redefining the Middle East’s borders

September 26, 2017

Kurds in Iraq and Syria: a new chaos is redefining the Middle East’s borders

There is no doubt that most Iraqi Kurds will say “yes” to the referendum and start materialising the dream of the 30 million Kurds inhabiting Iraq, Turkey, Syria and Armenia, a dream of establishing an independent state in Kurdistan-Iraq to start with. Despite the announcement of the Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani that the referendum is only the beginning of a negotiation with the central government in Baghdad (and not a “divorce” from the state of Iraq) he hopes (and most probably knows) that the independence will be recognised as a fact by the international community sooner or later. For certain, this referendum – if its result is implemented – will lead to a redefinition of the map of the Middle East, and the countries of Iraq and Syria to start with where Kurds in both countries control enough energy resources to sustain their “state”. Leaders around the world said – during the war in Syria – that the Middle East would never return to the way it was before 2011, probably referring to the “Islamic State” (ISIS) occupation of large part of Syria and Iraq. But today, their prediction may come true through the Kurds – even though the “Islamic State” (ISIS) “project” failed to reach its objective, that of dividing both Syria and Iraq.

Thus, the Kurdish will to establish an independent state is giving greater power to Turkey, holding the key of the Kurdish future state, and to the partition of the Middle East. In fact, in Iraq, Ankara will play a crucial role in the coming months and years in reshaping Mesopotamia and the Levant. Kurdistan exports its main oil revenue through Turkey, putting Erbil at Ankara’s mercy. Therefore, if Turkey considers the independence a threat to its national security, it will not hesitate to send troops into Kurdistan, triggering probably little effective action or reaction from Baghdad.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Forget Germany, Spain Is The Real Problem”

September 25, 2017

“Forget Germany, Spain Is The Real Problem”

Following yesterday’s German election, which despite Merkel’s 4th victory was a rout for the establishment “grand coalition” parties of CDU/CSU and SPD which saw its worst election performance since the 1940s offset by a surge in the ascendant right-wing AfD, there have been numerous analyst reactions to the “sudden reemergence” of populism in Europe, but one we find perhaps the most insightful and useful, comes from Bloomberg macro commentator Mark Cudmore, who writes this morning that for all the concerns, it’s not so much Germany as what is about to happen in European peer Spain, where Catalonia is set to hold an independence referendum on October 1, that should be on traders’ radars.

Below is his latest Macro View explaining why…

Euro Crisis Trading May Be Due for an Encore

The euro is once again set to suffer from an outsized political premium. Spain, rather than Germany, is the real problem.

The AfD’s strong performance in the German election and the lack of a clear coalition are both concerns at the margin, but they wouldn’t provide a sustainable headwind for the euro in isolation.

Much more worrying is Catalonia’s planned independence referendum on Oct. 1. Investors have been ignoring this story, but this week will see it take center stage.

The heavy-handed response by the central government in Spain has significantly elevated the probability of civil unrest as well as potentially increasing support for independence for the region.

People opposed to breaking away probably won’t vote, so any poll that proceeds will return an unrepresentative and overwhelming result for independence. If Mariano Rajoy is able to snuff out the illegal referendum, it’ll only intensify the demands for another, more official independence vote. Failing to stop it means there’ll be a symbolic declaration of independence.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Patriotism, Flags and Referendums

September 25, 2017

Patriotism, Flags and Referendums

Robert Frank London 1952-53‘Tis the jolly time of elections, referendums, flags and other democracy-related issues. They are all linked in some way or another, even if that’s not always obvious. Elections, in New Zealand and Germany this weekend, referendums in Catalonia and Kurdistan the coming week, a looming Party Congress in China, quarrels about a flag in the US and then there’s always Brexit.

About China: the Congress is only in October, Xi Jinping looks sure to broaden his powers even more, and it ain’t all that democratic, but we should still follow it, if only because party officials will be either demoted or promoted, and some of them govern more people than most kings, queens, presidents and prime ministers. They say everything’s bigger in Texas, but in China everything really is. Including debt.

New Zealand: the election very early this morning didn’t bring a much hoped for win for Labour, or any clear winner at all, so don’t expect any grand changes in policy. New Zealand won’t wake up till its economy dives and the housing bubble pops.

Germany: Angela Merkel has set up today’s election so that she has no competition. Though she will see the ultra-right AfD enter parliament. Still, her main ‘rival’, alleged left wing Martin Schulz, is a carbon copy of Merkel when it comes to the main issues, i.e. immigration and the EU. An election that is as dull as Angela herself, even though she’ll lose 10% or so. The next one won’t be, guaranteed.

As for the US, no elections there, but another round of big words about nationalism, patriotism and the flag. Donald Trump is well aware that 75% or so of Americans say the flag must be respected, so criticizing people for kneeling instead of standing when the anthem gets played is an easy win for him. No amount of famous athletes is going to change that.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Defiant Catalans Block Spain’s Military Boats From Landing; Spain Seizes “.CAT” Domain

September 23, 2017

Defiant Catalans Block Spain’s Military Boats From Landing; Spain Seizes “.CAT” Domain

Spain’s plan to send boatloads of military police to Catalonia to prevent its independence referendum have backfired with dockers in two ports staging a boycott and a third refusing access.

The Express writes Police boats Blocked by Catalan ports as unrest threatens to Rip Spain Apart.

More than 4,000 members of Spain’s Guardia Civil are being dispatched to the troubled region amid concerns over divided loyalties in the autonomous community’s own police force, the Mossos d’ Esquadra.

Spanish authorities wanted to house the Guardia Civil officers on four cruise ships – two in Barcelona, one in Tarragona and another in Palamos.

But as thousands took to the streets to protest against the detention of Catalan officials, local dock workers joined the backlash.

The Assembly of Stevedores of the Port of Barcelona announced that workers would not provide any services to boats carrying security forces, a decision it said was taken “in defence of civil rights”.

Colleagues in Tarragona quickly followed suit and the Catalan government then denied permission to dock in Palamos – which, unlike Barcelona and Tarragona, falls under regional rather than national control.

More than 40,000 people have gathered in Barcelona to protest over the arrests and the intervention of the Spanish government in the Catalan independence vote.

Many of the angry protesters have been waving Catalonia’s red and yellow flag while chanting “We will vote” and “Hello Democracy!”

In a television address, Catalan’s President Carles Puigdemont said: “The Spanish state has by all rights intervened in Catalonia’s government and has established emergency rule.

“We condemn and reject the anti-democratic and totalitarian actions of the Spanish state.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It Gets Ugly in Catalonia

September 22, 2017

It Gets Ugly in Catalonia

Spain’s “ships of repression” are coming to help out.

Madrid’s crackdown on Catalonia is already having one major consequence, presumably unintended: many Catalans who were until recently staunchly opposed to the idea of national independence are now reconsidering their options.

A case in point: At last night’s demonstration, spread across multiple locations in Barcelona, were two friends of mine, one who is fanatically apolitical and the other who is a strong Catalan nationalist but who believes that independence would be a political and financial disaster for the region. It was their first ever political demonstration. If there is a vote on Oct-1, they will probably vote to secede.

The middle ground they and hundreds of thousands of others once occupied was obliterated yesterday when a judge in Barcelona ordered Spain’s militarized police force, the Civil Guard, to round up over a dozen Catalan officials in dawn raids. Many of them now face crushing daily fines of up to €12,000.

The Civil Guard also staged raids on key administrative buildings in Barcelona. The sight of balaclava-clad officers of the Civil Guard, one of the most potent symbols of the not-yet forgotten Franco dictatorship, crossing the threshold of the seats of Catalonia’s (very limited) power and arresting local officials, was too much for the local population to bear.

Within minutes almost all of the buildings were surrounded by crowds of flag-draped pro-independence protesters. The focal point of the day’s demonstrations was the Economic Council of Catalonia, whose second-in-command and technical coordinator of the referendum, Josep Maria Jové,was among those detained. He has now been charged with sedition and could face between 10-15 years in prison. Before that, he faces fines of €12,000 a day.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Unintended Consequences & Ugly Repercussions: It’s Getting Worse In Catalonia

September 22, 2017

Unintended Consequences & Ugly Repercussions: It’s Getting Worse In Catalonia

As NakedCapitalism’s Jerri-Lynn writes, the Catalonia crisis is accelerating, with Madrid’s crackdown increasing support for independence even among those previously not so disposed. This does not look like it will end well.

Spain will deploy police reinforcements to the northeastern region of Catalonia to maintain order and take action if a referendum on independence pledged by the Catalan government but deemed illegal by Spain should take place, officials said Friday.

AP reports that an Interior Ministry statement said the extra agents would provide backing for the Catalan regional police who are also under orders to prevent the staging of the referendum.

But protests continue to grow and Rajoy’s actions only seem to solidify opposition…

“I feel the way people used to feel during Franco regime. Nothing less. Because Francoism is still alive,” said protester Josep Selva, referring to Gen. Francisco Franco’s military regime that ruled Spain between 1939 and 1978, three years after his death.

“The political reform of 1978 only legalized Francoism and disguised it as democracy,” he said.

But, as WolfStreet.com’s Don Quijones points out Madrid’s crackdown on Catalonia is already having one major consequence, presumably unintended: many Catalans who were until recently staunchly opposed to the idea of national independence are now reconsidering their options.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“We Are In A State Of Siege”: Spanish Police Arrest Top Catalan Officials In Referendum Raids

September 20, 2017

“We Are In A State Of Siege”: Spanish Police Arrest Top Catalan Officials In Referendum Raids

Spanish police arrested top-ranking Catalan officials including the region’s junior economy minister Josep Maria Jove, as Madrid launched a crackdown on Catalonia over the upcoming Independence referendum Reuters reported. Jove, who is a senior member of the Republican Left of Catalonia political party, was detained following a Wednesday morning raid carried out by Spain’s Civil Guard, which has the authority of both the Interior and the Defence ministries.

At least a dozen high-ranking local officials were arrested, La Vanguardia newspaper said. Among those detained are Josue Sallent Rivas from the Centre of Telecommunications and Information Technology, Xavier Puig Farré from the Office of Social Affairs and Josep Maria Salvat Tenesa from the Ministry of Economics and Finance.

Police, acting under court orders, have stepped up raids on printers, newspaper offices and private delivery companies in recent days in a search for campaign literature, instruction manuals for manning voting stations and ballot boxes.

On Tuesday, Spain’s Civil Guard, a national police force, seized more than 45,000 envelopes packed in cardboard boxes that the Catalan government was ready to send to notify people around the region about the referendum.

“Catalonia is now in a state of siege ”, Catalonia’s Minister of Labor, Social Affairs and Family Dolors Bassa said on Twitter, confirming that the Civil Guard has also entered her department.

Dolors Bassa @dolorsbassac

I ara,a nostre departament també , acaba d’entrar la Guardia Civil.Estem en un estat de setge ! Vergonyós !@govern .Votarem #1dO

2:27 AM – Sep 20, 2017

Meanwhile, the fiercely pro-independence leader of the regional government, Carles Puigdemont, has called an emergency meeting of his cabinet for 10:30 CET (8:30 GMT), the sources said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Thoughts on the Media and the EU Referendum 190

July 3, 2016

Thoughts on the Media and the EU Referendum 190

Al Jazeera’s Listening Post programme on the EU referendum media coverage was just broadcast. They only used about 5% of what they recorded of me, split into four soundbites to fit their format.

I think the much more interesting points I made were not used at all. So just for the record, I also made these points:

a) I did not accept the argument that the BBC was biased in the referendum campaign towards Brexit. Indeed especially in the last few days, I thought it was biased towards Remain.
b) However the BBC had been guilty of helping promote Brexit by giving Farage massive and disproportionate publicity for many years, from when UKIP was a negligible electoral force. They were always willing to give right wings views publicity but not left wing views.
c) The right wing print media were indeed a major problem distorting democracy. However the solution to this should be to break up media ownership, not impose government control of content.
d) Project Fear had not succeeded in the Scottish referendum. It had seen a 35 point unionist lead cut to a 10 point lead, making it one of the most disastrous campaigns in history. The question of why Project Fear “succeeded” in Scotland but not the EU referendum was therefore a false one.
e) Media coverage focused on the despised political class rather than the facts.

I do not blame Al Jazeera at all or accuse them of doing anything unethical – they were looking for soundbites for their broadcast. But I do think the above points which they did not broadcast, were a great deal more interesting than their programme!

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Not So Fast: Scotland And Northern Ireland May Have Brexit Veto Rights

June 25, 2016

Not So Fast: Scotland And Northern Ireland May Have Brexit Veto Rights

Two days after the shocking Brexit result, the nightmares for the Remain camp – which refuses to accept a democratic reality – will not go away. As a result, it has gotten to the farcical point where disgruntled Remain voters have launched a petition demanding a second EU referendum, having clearly forgotten that it was the dramatically low turnout among their ranks that allowed the Leave vote to have such a knockout victory. To be sure this is a well-known technocrat approach: keep voting and revoting until the desired outcome is finally achieved.

We doubt this particular approach has any hope of success. We also doubt that a call by Labor MP David Lammy, urging for a vote in Parliament to “stop this madness”, the madness in question being the will of the majority, which clearly is not appreciated by a member of a “democratically” elected institution. One can spend all day analyzing the amusing ironies in that statement.

View image on Twitter

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David Lammy ✔@DavidLammy

Wake up. We do not have to do this. We can stop this madness through a vote in Parliament. My statement below

11:36 AM – 25 Jun 2016

However, while these are merely desperation antics by a group who will do almost anything to hang on to the benefits presented to them by the status quo, regardless of the will of the majority, a curious observation has emerged courtesy of Jim Fitzpatrick, who points out that according to the 28-page government Command Paper laying out “The Process of withdrawing from the European Union“, which goes through the infamous Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), the first time in history when Article 50 will be invoked, there may actually be a hurdle to the actual Brexit process, in the form of a Scottish and Northern Irish veto to Britain’s separation from the EU. To wit:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

British Exit From EU Not Inevitable, Despite Referendum

June 25, 2016

British Exit From EU Not Inevitable, Despite Referendum

IN THE FIRST HOURS after the British public voted to exit the European Union, amid all sorts of triumphal statements and recriminations, one declaration was notably absent: the formal notification to the EU that the United Kingdom intends to leave the organization, which is required to start the clock on negotiations for a departure.

Prime Minister David Cameron, who led the failed campaign to convince voters to stay in the EU, told the public that an exit would not happen soon, as he intended to resign in three months and leave it to his successor to decide “when to trigger Article 50″ of the union’s basic agreement, the Lisbon Treaty, which says that a member state has two years after declaring its desire to leave to negotiate the terms of its exit.

David Allen Green @DavidAllenGreen

Has Article 50 been invoked yet?http://hasarticle50beeninvoked.uk/

1:53 PM – 24 Jun 2016

Speaking to the press a short time later, the man considered most likely to be prime minister in October, Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, also seemed in no hurry to get the process started.

“In voting to leave the EU, it is vital to stress that there is no need for haste,” Johnson said, “and indeed, as the prime minister has just said, nothing will change over the short term, except that work will have to begin on how to give effect to the will of the people and to extricate this country from the supranational system.”

Given that the popular mandate his side had just won was summed up in a single word on the backdrop behind him, “Leave,” it seemed odd that Johnson made no mention of the fastest way to get that process started, by pressing for an immediate Article 50 declaration.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Despite the Vote, the Odds Are Against Britain Leaving the EU

June 25, 2016

Despite the Vote, the Odds Are Against Britain Leaving the EU

The Brexit vote shows that a majority of the British voters understand that the UK government represents interests other than the interests of the British people. As difficult as the British know it is to hold their own government to account, they understand they have no prospect whatsoever of holding the EU government to account. During their time under the EU, the British have been reminded of historical times when law was the word of the sovereign.

The propagandists who comprise the Western political and media establishments succeeded in keeping the real issues out of public discussion and presenting the leave vote as racism. However, enough of the British people resisted the brainwashing and controlled debate to grasp the real issues: sovereignty, accountable government, financial independence, freedom from involvement in Washington’s wars and conflict with Russia.

The British people should not be so naive as to think that their vote settles the matter. The fight has only begun. Expect:

— The British government to come back to the people and say, look, the EU has given us a better deal. We can now afford to stay in.

— The Fed, ECB, BOJ, and NY hedge funds to pound the pound and to short British stocks in order to convince the British voters that their vote is sinking the economy.

— More emphasis on the vote’s weakening of Europe, leaving all to the mercy of “Russian aggression.”

— Hard to resist bribes (and threats) to prominent members of the leave majority and pressure on such leave leaders as Boris Johnson to be reasonable, concillatory and to maintain good relations with Washington and Europe, and to reach a compromise on remaining in the EU.

— Expect the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) to attribute the loss of British jobs and investment opportunities to the leave vote.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Switzerland’s Referendum on Fractional Reserve Banking

January 13, 2016

Switzerland’s Referendum on Fractional Reserve Banking

A Warmed-Up “Chicago Plan”

Many of our readers may be aware by now that a Swiss initiative against fractional reserve banking has gathered the required 100,000 signatures to force a referendum on the matter. Is is called the “Vollgeld Initiative”, whereby “Vollgeld” could be loosely translated as “fully covered money”.

logo_vollgeld-initiative_mit_Titel_hoch_2014_05 Swiss initiative against fractional reserve banking

Austrian School proponents will at first glance probably think that it sounds like a good idea: After all, it is the creation of uncovered money substitutes ex nihilo that leads to the suppression of market interest rates below the natural rate and consequently to a distortion of relative prices, the falsification of economic calculation and the boom-bust cycle.

However, a second glance reveals that the initiative has a substantial flaw. One may for instance wonder why the Swiss National Bank hasn’t yet let loose with a propaganda blitz against it, as it has done on occasion of the gold referendum. The answer is simple: the “Vollgeld” plan only wants to prohibit the creation of fiduciary media by commercial banks.

The power to create additional money from thin air is to be reserved solely to the central bank, which would vastly increase its power and leave credit and money creation in the hands of a few unelected central planning bureaucrats. In other words, it is a warmed-up version of the “Chicago Plan” of the 1930’s, which Chicago economists led by Irving Fisher and Frank H. Knight presented in the wake of the Great Depression (the debate over the plan led to the establishment of the FDIC and the Glass-Steagall Act, but its central demand obviously remained unfulfilled).

Irving and Knight Irving Fisher and Frank H. Knight, the lead authors of the original Chicago plan

As Hans Hermann Hoppe has pointed out, the Chicago School (F. H. Knight is today regarded as one of its most important founders), was seen as “left fringe” in the 1940s.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Can the UK Survive Brexit?

January 5, 2016

Can the UK Survive Brexit?

LONDON – The upcoming referendum on the United Kingdom’s continued membership in the European Union, almost certain to be held this year, could turn out to be yet another major catastrophe to hit Europe. If, as seems increasingly plausible, British voters chose to leave, the result would be a profoundly destabilized EU – and a shattered UK.

The problem is that, with the EU seemingly mired in perpetual crisis, the case for “Brexit” carries significant intellectual and emotional allure. Even before the eurozone’s debt problems emerged in 2009-2010, it seemed clear to many British that, in order to be resilient to shocks, a currency union requires greater integration, in particular, some form of fiscal union. In other words, Europe would need to act more like a nation-state. And that is one arrangement that the UK has never been willing to abide.

And, on an emotional level, fear of large-scale immigration, from both within and outside the EU, has fueled a populist backlash, which the recent refugee crisis has intensified. The populist response relies on the bizarre but evidently resonant argument that Europe – or, more specifically, Germany – is encouraging the refugee inflows.

Meanwhile, the defenders of Britain’s continued EU membership have made one mistake after another. Many have apparently pinned their hopes on the unrealistic expectation that they could renegotiate the EU treaties. In particular, they tried to present a case for weakening crucial elements of the European integration process, especially with regard to labor mobility.

Furthermore, the pro-EU camp has sounded the alarms over the economic shock that Brexit would cause. This may have seemed like a reasonable strategy, but fear is not rational; it may well drive voters toward the apparent certainties offered by the nation-state.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Switzerland To Vote On Ending Fractional Reserve Banking

December 24, 2015

Switzerland To Vote On Ending Fractional Reserve Banking

One year ago (and just two months before the shocking announcement the Swiss Franc’s peg to the Euro would end, dramatically revaluing the currency, and leading to massive FX losses around the globe and for the Swiss National Bank) the Swiss held a referendum whether to demand that their central bank should convert 20% of its reserves into gold, up from 7% currently. After the early polls showed the Yes vote taking a surprising lead, the Diebold machines kicked in and the result was a sweeping victory for the No vote, without a single canton voting for sound money.

Ironically, this unexpected nonchallance about the Swiss central bank’s balance sheet by one of Europe’s more responsible nations took place just before the same bank announced CHF30 billions in losses on its long EUR positions following the revaluation of the CHF. It also took place when not just Germany, but the Netherlands and Austria announced they would repatriate a major portion of their gold in a move which, all spin aside, signals rising concerns about the existing monetary system.

We wonder if the Swiss have changed their mind about just how prudent it is to have their central bank operate as one of the world’s largest – and worst – after its CHF 30 billion loss in Q1 FX traders, and hedge funds with $94 billion in stock holdings, since then.

We may soon have the answer, because in what is shaping up to be another historic referendum on the treatment of money, earlier today the Swiss Federal Government confirmed that it had received enough signatures and would hold a referendum as part of the so-called “Vollgeld”, or Full Money Initiative, also known as the Campaign for Monetary Reform, which seeks to ban commercial banks from creating money, and which calls for the central bank to be given sole power to create the money in the financial system.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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