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Yellen Tells Congress Negative Interest Rates Are Possible

Yellen Tells Congress Negative Interest Rates Are Possible

yellen-Janet

Reuters has reported that Yellen told a House of Representatives committee when testifying before Congress: “Potentially anything – including negative interest rates – would be on the table. But we would have to study carefully how they would work here in the U.S. context.”

Yellen may have been placating Congress for negative rates would wipe out the elderly entirely. They have failed to work in Europe in the slightest.

Swiss 1000-CHF

Negative interest rates are not working in Europe. Even in Switzerland, hoarding of cashis becoming a national pass-time. This entire idea demonstrates that those who would be king, do not understand even how the economy functions.

Paine-Common Sense

We are back to Thomas Paine’s Common Sense that inspired the American Revolution. He explained that government was evil because it operates from a NEGATIVE perspective to always PUNISH the people. This is the only way those in government ever perceive their power – it is always to demand and punish, never to work with society to comprehend what the problem might be.

Budget Crisis 2917

Taxes are too high and the standard of living has declined. Those in power will ONLY raise taxes because they are incapable of reform. The year 2017 will cross the Rubicon. The inflation they are desperately trying to create will arrive, but not in the form they desire.

This Time Is The Same——And Worse!

This Time Is The Same——And Worse!

The current stock market melt-up hardly qualifies as limp. Even the robo-machines and hyper-ventilating day traders apparently recognize that their job is to tag the May 2015 highs and then get out of the way.

So when and as they complete their pointless mission, the question recurs as to why the posse of fools in the Eccles Building can’t see that they are inflating one hellacious financial bubble; and that when it blows it will deconstruct their entire 7-year project of make-pretend recovery.

In fact, if it weren’t for the monumental pain and suffering the next bubble collapse will bring to main street, you might even be tempted to urge them on toward the Wile E. Coyote moment just ahead. After all, if 84 straight months of ZIRP and $3.5 trillion of fraudulent debt monetization (QE) brings nothing more than another thundering financial collapse, it will be curtains time at the Fed.

And here’s why they can’t duck the blame this time with tall tales about a global “savings glut” causing lax underwriting in the mortgage market, or the lack of transparency on Wall Street balance sheets.

The fact is, stock prices are just plain nuts and the evidence is all there in plain sight. And so are the intense and manifold economic headwinds arising from all around the planet—–to say nothing of the advanced age of the US business cycle.

At this point, 75% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 results, and earnings are coming in at $93.80 per share on an LTM basis. That happens to be 7.4% below the peak $106 per share reported last September, and means that the market today is valuing these shrinking profits at a spritely 22.49X PE ratio.

And, yes, there is a reason for two-digit precision. It seems that in the 4th quarter of 2007 LTM earnings came in at 22.19X the S&P 500 index price. We know what happened next!

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Fed Can’t Raise Rates, But Must Pretend It Will

The Fed Can’t Raise Rates, But Must Pretend It Will

Waiting for Godot is a play written by the Irish novelist Samuel B. Beckett in the late 1940s in which two characters, Vladimir and Estragon, keep waiting endlessly and in vain for the coming of someone named Godot. The storyline bears some resemblance to the Federal Reserve’s talk about raising interest rates.

Since spring 2013, the Fed has been playing with the idea of raising rates, which it had suppressed to basically zero percent in December 2008. So far, however, it has not taken any action. Upon closer inspection, the reason is obvious. With its policy of extremely low interest rates, the Fed is fueling an artificial economic expansion and inflating asset prices.

Selected US Interest Rates in Percent

Selected US Interest Rates in Percent
Source: Thomson Financial

Raising short-term rates would be like taking away the punch bowl just as the party gets going. As rates rise, the economy’s production and employment structure couldn’t be upheld. Neither could inflated bond, equity, and housing prices. If the economy slows down, let alone falls back into recession, the Fed’s fiat money pipe dream would run into serious trouble.

This is the reason why the Fed would like to keep rates at the current suppressed levels. A delicate obstacle to such a policy remains, though: If savers and investors expect that interest rates will remain at rock bottom forever, they would presumably turn their backs on the credit market. The ensuing decline in the supply of credit would spell trouble for the fiat money system.

To prevent this from happening, the Fed must achieve two things. First, it needs to uphold the expectation in financial markets that current low interest rates will be increased again at some point in the future. If savers and investors buy this story, they will hold onto their bank deposits, money market funds, bonds, and other fixed income products despite minuscule yields.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Blatant Gold/Silver Manipulation Reflects The Complete Corruption Of The U.S. System

Blatant Gold/Silver Manipulation Reflects The Complete Corruption Of The U.S. System

I friend called me that morning and I told him to not get excited because when the FOMC policy decision hits the tape, they will annihilate gold and push the S&P 500 up toward 2100.   I was only 10 pts off on the S&P call, as the S&P 500 closed at 2090, up an absurd 24 points.  Gold was taken to the cleaners:

ComexGold

SPX

What’s incredible is not one mainstream media analyst or reporter questions this market action. If the premise behind the gold sell-off was a “hawkish” FOMC statement and the threat of a rate hike in December (yawn), then the exact same premise should have cause a big sell-off in stocks. Since when does the threat of tighter monetary policy not hit the stock market?

Just to recount the play-by-play in gold, the moment the FOMC announcement hit the tape, the Comex computer system was bombarded with sell orders. At this point in the trading day, the ONLY gold/silver market open is the Comex computer Globex system. In the first 30 minutes 29.6k contracts were unloaded – 2.6 million paper ounces. In the entire hour after the announcement 50.5k contracts were unloaded – 5.1 million ounces. Note that the Comex is showing around 200k ounces to be available for delivery.

The blatant, unfettered manipulation and intervention in the gold and silver market is sponsored by the Fed and the U.S. Treasury, executed by the big bullion banks and fully endorsed by the CFTC.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Time to Keep Your Cash in the Microwave?

Time to Keep Your Cash in the Microwave?

The Fed’s Big Pivot

NORMANDY, France – “Now, I think I’ve seen everything” is an expression that – like “this is the end of history” and “I’ll never leave you” – usually turns out to be premature. But it is what we found ourselves saying yesterday. Not out loud. We just moved our lips in mute amazement.

micxrowaveModern cash storage method pioneered by desperate Swedes
Photo credit: SWNS.com

On Tuesday, the Italian government sold a 2-year note yielding MINUS 0.023%. We don’t know what is more preposterous: that the Italians were able to borrow money at a negative nominal interest rate or that the press reported this transaction with a straight face.

Italy, 2 year yieldEverything is awesome: an essentially bankrupt government sells two year notes at a negative yield! Today’s make-believe world created by central bankers and regulators is probably the biggest economic powder keg yet – click to enlarge.

It should have provoked howls of laughter, withering scorn, and unvarnished derision. But here at the Diary, we will not point the finger and chuckle. We will not invoke our usual tone of sarcasm. We will not damn the whole thing to Hell with loud and blustery cussing.

Instead, we’ll take the high road; we just want to know what it means. But before we get to that, let us pick up the news. Here’s the latest, from Bloomberg:

“Federal Reserve officials pivoted toward a December interest-rate increase, betting that further job gains will lead to higher inflation over time and allow them to close an unprecedented era of near-zero borrowing costs. The Federal Open Market Committee dropped a reference to global risks and referred to its “next meeting” on Dec. 15-16 as it discussed liftoff timing in a statement released Wednesday in Washington, preparing investors for the first rate rise since 2006.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Dear Janet, Seriously!!

Dear Janet, Seriously!!

The Fed’s confidence trick this week was, once again, the Keyser Soze gambit (via Beaudelaire)-  “convincing the world of Yellen’s hawkishness, when no such character trait exists.” However, unlike the movies, stocks and FX markets have already seen through the con, leaving Fed Funds futures alone to believe the hype. As we noted previously, “The Fed Can’t Raise Rates, But Must Pretend It Will,” repeating its pre-meeting hawkishness to dovishness swing time and again in a “Groundhog Day” meets “Waiting For Godot”-like manner. Time is running out Janet, tick tock…

This is what we are to believe a “data-dependent” Federal Reserve is thinking…

Source: @Not_Jim_Cramer

And for now, Fed Funds Futures are falling for it…

 

But the broad equity markets aren’t…

Nor are Financials…

And nor is The Dollar…

Because, as we noted previously, the market (and The Fed) know perfectly well that raising short-term rates would be like taking away the punch bowl just as the party gets going. As rates rise, the economy’s production and employment structure couldn’t be upheld. Neither could inflated bond, equity, and housing prices. If the economy slows down, let alone falls back into recession, the Fed’s fiat money pipe dream would run into serious trouble.

This is the reason why the Fed would like to keep rates at the current suppressed levels. A delicate obstacle to such a policy remains, though: If savers and investors expect that interest rates will remain at rock bottom forever, they would presumably turn their backs on the credit market. The ensuing decline in the supply of credit would spell trouble for the fiat money system.

To prevent this from happening, the Fed must achieve two things.

First, it needs to uphold the expectation in financial markets that current low interest rates will be increased again at some point in the future. If savers and investors buy this story, they will hold onto their bank deposits, money market funds, bonds, and other fixed income products despite minuscule yields.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Breaking: China Cuts Interest Rate By 25 bps, Cuts RRR by 50 bps; Futures Soar; Fed December Rate Hike Back In Play

Breaking: China Cuts Interest Rate By 25 bps, Cuts RRR by 50 bps; Futures Soar; Fed December Rate Hike Back In Play

Just two days ago, we noted that according to Citi’s Willem Buiter, there would be “Imminent Easing From Central Banks Of China, Australia, Japan And Europe.” Fast forward 48 hours when he is already half right – not only did Europe confirm it is about to cut, but moments ago none other than China joined the global easing orgy when in a completely unexpected development as it happened on a Friday (we are scouring  various databases to find the last time, if ever this happened) China announced it has cut not only its 1 year lending rate and 1 year deposit rate by 25 bps, but also its reserve requirement ratio by 50 bps.

  • CHINA CUTS BANKS’ RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO
  • CHINA CUTS INTEREST RATES
  • CHINA CUTS 1-YEAR LENDING RATE BY 0.25 PPT
  • CHINA CUTS 1-YEAR DEPOSIT RATE BY 0.25 PPT
  • CHINA REMOVES DEPOSIT RATE CEILING FOR BANKS
  • CHINA CUTS RESERVE RATIO BY 0.5 PPT
  • CHINA INTEREST RATE CUT EFFECTIVE FROM OCT. 24

The PBOC’s statement in its google-translated entirety:

People’s Bank of China, from October 24, 2015, down financial institutions RMB benchmark lending and deposit interest rates, in order to further reduce the social cost of financing. Among them, one-year benchmark lending rate by 0.25 percentage point to 4.35%; year benchmark deposit rate by 0.25 percentage point to 1.5%; adjusted for each other grade benchmark interest rate loans and deposits, the People’s Bank lending rates of financial institutions ; personal housing accumulation fund loan interest rates remain unchanged. Meanwhile, commercial banks and rural cooperative financial institutions are no longer set the upper limit of the floating interest rates on deposits, and pay close attention to improve the market-oriented interest rate formation and regulation mechanism, strengthen the central bank interest rate system of regulation and supervision, improve the efficiency of monetary policy transmission.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Neither Bull nor Bear

Neither Bull nor Bear

“Good Economic Management” vs. Larceny

“Will you shut up?!”

That is what we wanted to say this morning, here in Zurich, Switzerland. At the table next to us, a hedge fund promoter is working hard…

“The value proposition… outside of the box… we’re only talking two points… we can dialogue about it… Goldman… our business model… prioritize our priorities… get the balance right…”

 

hi-trudeau-04924780-8colNew Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau – who actually has more than just one bad idea.
Photo credit: Andrew Vaughan / Canadian Press

Meanwhile, on the front page of the Financial Times is a good-looking guy with a bad idea. Pierre Trudeau’s son, Justin, is Canada’s new prime minister. (Another political dynasty!) He will “take advantage of low interest rates” to embark on a C$60 billion infrastructure program.

Just for the record, the Canuck feds are not taking advantage of low interest rates. They’re cheating savers… retirees… and responsible citizens whose expenses are lower than their incomes.

In much of the developed world, central banks have pushed interest rates to their lowest level in 5,000 years. This is not “good economic management.” It’s larceny. They’re taking money from savers and giving it to borrowers – especially in the financial sector and in government. But on to other things….

Canada, M1This is not just larceny, it is insanity (not unique to Canada to be sure, as it has gone global) – click to enlarge.

12% a Year in Stocks

“We don’t pay any attention to the stock market. We buy good companies at good prices,” an old friend explained about how his private fund operates. (In the interest of full disclosure, we are one of his investors.)

“We aim for 12% a year,” he continued. “And that’s what we get, more or less.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Moneyweek: Hands Off Our Cash Petition

Moneyweek: Hands Off Our Cash Petition

Andy Haldane recently floated the idea of abolishing cash so that radical monetary policy like negative interest rates can be implemented.

You can sign the Moneyweek petition against this here:

http://moneyweek.com/wp/hands-off-our-cash-petition

Whereas the Bank of England’s Chief Economist Andrew Haldane announced on 18th September 2015 his intention to abolish use of cash in Britain in order to allow the bank to impose negative interest rates on savers;

Whereas this would allow banks to charge you to keep your money on deposit and make it impossible to remove your money as cash in response;

Whereas Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland have already imposed negative interest rates;

Therefore, we the undersigned, as concerned savers and investors of Great Britain, do call on Her Majesty’s British Government to:

Guarantee that cash will not be abolished from use in the UK
Guarantee that negative interest rates will not be imposed undemocratically on British savers
Establish a form of public consultation on the specific mandate and monetary policy limitations of the Bank of England

Peak Debt, Peak Doubt, & Peak Double-Down

Peak Debt, Peak Doubt, & Peak Double-Down

Time to Hike Rates
It makes little sense to me why the market is only pricing a 6% probability of a rate hike at the October meeting, 30% for December, and only a near 50/50 probability all the way out to March 2016.  The statutory mandates of the Fed as stated in the Federal Reserve Act are “maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates”.  All three have been fully realized.

The unemployment rate is 5.1% (full-employment).  Core CPI has been stable for years and printed 1.9% yesterday; remarkably close to the Fed’s self-imposed target of 2%.  For a few years, Treasury rates have been stable at near-historical low levels. In addition, the 4-week moving average of Unemployment Claims fell to its lowest level since 1973.  The most recent employment report was a bit weaker than expected, but it fell within a standard margin of error.  Yet, the Fed continues to remain at the emergency rate of 0.0%.

At the September meeting, the FOMC talked up the economy, but refrained again from hiking rates, citing “international developments”. By making this decision, the Fed has to be careful it does not also provide an ‘emerging markets put’.

As the October meeting approaches, international developments have settled down.  Emerging market stocks indexes and currencies have bounced since the September FOMC meeting. Chinese markets in particular have calmed down and have traded higher. The US stock market is higher. The trade-weighted dollar is lower. Credit spreads are tighter. The arguments for a hike at the October or December meeting should have increased not decreased.

The recalibration in rate hike probabilities could be the result of the “data dependent” language which has never been adequately defined.  It is suspect to believe that monetary policy for an $18 trillion complex global economy is being determined by a backward looking piece of monthly economic data.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Latest Evidence That Global Trade Has Collapsed: India’s Exports/Imports Plunge By 25%

The Latest Evidence That Global Trade Has Collapsed: India’s Exports/Imports Plunge By 25%

Late last month, India surprised 51 out of 52 economists when the RBI cut rates by 50bps.

Although economists have a reputation for being terrible when it comes to making predictions (getting it wrong perpetually is almost a job requirement), it’s difficult to understand how 51 of them failed to see a cut of that magnitude in the cards.

After all, it was just a little over a month earlier when the Indian government’s chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian told ET Now television that India may need to “respond” to China’s monetary policy stance. He also hinted at further export weakness to come.

Here’s what the REER picture and the export picture looked like going into the RBI meeting:

And here’s what Deutsche Bank had to say in August:

Currency competitiveness is an important factor in influencing exports performance, but global demand is even more important, in our view, to support exports momentum. Global demand remains soft at this stage which continues to be a key hurdle for exports momentum to gain traction.

Hence the outsized rate cut.

So that’s what the picture looked like going into Thursday’s export data and unsurprisingly, the numbers definitively show that global trade is in freefall. Here’s Reuters:

India’s exports of goods shrank by nearly a quarter in September from a year ago, falling for a 10th straight month and threatening Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s goal of boosting economic growth through manufacturing.

India’s economy, Asia’s third largest, is mostly driven by domestic demand, but the country has still felt the effects of China’s slowdown. Exports have dropped and consumer and industrial demand for imports has weakened.

Imports fell 25.42 percent in September from a year earlier to $32.32 billion.Exports stood at $21.84 billion, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on Thursday.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Wal-Mart’s Worst Stock Crash In 27 Years Is Another Sign That The Economy Is Rapidly Falling Apart

Wal-Mart’s Worst Stock Crash In 27 Years Is Another Sign That The Economy Is Rapidly Falling Apart

Wal-Mart - Photo by MikeMozartJeepersMediaNow that a major global recession has begun, you would expect major retailers like Wal-Mart to run into trouble as consumer spending dries up, and that is precisely what is happening.  On Wednesday, shares of Wal-Mart experienced their largest single day decline in 27 years after an extremely disappointing earnings projection was released.  The stock was down about 10 percent, which represented the biggest plunge since January 1988.  Over 21 billion dollars in shareholder wealth was wiped out on Wednesday, and this was just the continuation of a very bad year for Wal-Mart stockholders.  Overall, shares had already declined by 22 percent so far in 2015 before we even got to Wednesday.  Here is more on this stunning turn of events from Bloomberg

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. suffered its worst stock decline in more than 27 years after predicting a drop in annual profit, underscoring the giant retailer’s struggles to reignite growth.

Earnings will decrease 6 percent to 12 percent in fiscal 2017, which ends in January of that year, the Bentonville, Arkansas-based company said at its investor day on Wednesday. Analysts had estimated a gain of 4 percent on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

If it was just Wal-Mart that was having trouble, that would be bad enough.  But the truth is that signs that the U.S. economy has entered another major downturn are popping up all around us.  Just consider the following list of economic indicators that Graham Summers recently put out

The Fed has now kept interest rates at zero for 81 months.

This is the longest period in the history of the Fed’s existence, lasting longer than even the 1938-1942 period of ZIRP.

And the US economy is moving back into recession. Consider that…

1)   Industrial production fell five months straight in the first half of 2015. This has never happened outside of a recession.

2)   Merchant Wholesalers’ Sales are in recession territory.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Central bankers must have the courage to act before a crisis: Don Pittis

Central bankers must have the courage to act before a crisis: Don Pittis

Are our bankers-in-chief always condemned to crisis management?

Are central bankers always destined to be too late?

This weekend, two of that august fraternity were strutting their stuff. Former U.S. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke was busy promoting his new book called The Courage to Act. Meanwhile, Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz was giving speeches titled Integrating Financial Stability into Monetary Policy.

And in different ways, the two tread the same ground: how difficult it is to rein in a housing boom before it turns into a crisis.

The title of Bernanke’s book has already been pilloried for its hubris.

Voices had been raised for years that U.S. interest rates were too low and that it was driving house prices too high, distorting the economy. But as Bernanke admitted in an interview that played Tuesday on CBC Radio’s The Current, he didn’t act until it was far too late.

Greater than housing

“It wasn’t until August of 2007 that we began to appreciate that the ramifications of the losses on sub-prime mortgages were going to be much greater than just the housing market,” Bernanke told The Current host Anna Maria Tremonti.

Of course by that time, there was really little the U.S. central bank could do to prevent the bubble from popping, setting off a global financial meltdown and necessitating a multibillion-dollar bailout of the banks that had contributed to the crisis.

Years of low interest rates had allowed consumers to borrow recklessly. After they had access to that money, they used it to overinflate the entire economy, buying consumer goodies and bidding up the price of real estate.

By then, it was too late to raise interest rates. It could have been done several years previously, slowing the boom before it became dangerous. So why didn’t Bernanke, or his predecessor Alan Greenspan, act then?

There may be clues from listening to our own central banker’s speech this week.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Mindless Stupidity of Negative Interest Rates

The Mindless Stupidity of Negative Interest Rates

Here we are in the midst of The Great Stagnation Middle Class Elimination and some central bankers and mainstream economists are promoting negative interest rates. One economist was quoted in a Marketwatch piece by Greg Robb as saying,

“…pushing rates into negative territory works in many ways just like a regular decline in interest rates that we’re all used to.”

OK. That’s false. We know exactly what negative interest rates do since Europe has made a fine case study of it. They don’t work just like a “regular decline in interest rates.” I mean not that a “regular decline in interest rates,” does what economists think it does, but that’s another story. The issue here is how negative interest rates work.

Negative interest rate proponents ignore the basic tenets of double entry accounting.

Because there are two sides to a bank balance sheet, negative interest rates are the mirror image of positive rates. The move to negative rates imposes new costs on the banks, unlike low positive rates or ZIRP which reduce bank costs.

The greater the negative interest rate, the higher the cost imposed, which is the same as a central bank raising interest rates when they are positive. When the Fed lowers a positive interest rate, it lowers the bank’s cost. But when there are trillions in excess reserves held by the banks as deposits at the Fed and the Fed lowers the interest rate to below zero, that becomes a cost to the banking system which it cannot avoid, except by using those cash assets to pay down debt.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

The Hidden Debt Burden of Emerging Markets

The Hidden Debt Burden of Emerging Markets

As central bankers and finance ministers from around the globe gather for the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings here in Peru, the emerging world is rife with symptoms of increasing economic vulnerability. Gone are the days when IMF meetings were monopolized by the problems of the advanced economies struggling to recover from the 2008 financial crisis. Now, the discussion has shifted back toward emerging economies, which face the risk of financial crises of their own.

While no two financial crises are identical, all tend to share some telltale symptoms: a significant slowdown in economic growth and exports, the unwinding of asset-price booms, growing current-account and fiscal deficits, rising leverage, and a reduction or outright reversal in capital inflows. To varying degrees, emerging economies are now exhibiting all of them.

The turning point came in 2013, when the expectation of rising interest rates in the United States and falling global commodity prices brought an end to a multi-year capital-inflow bonanza that had been supporting emerging economies’ growth. China’s recent slowdown, by fueling turbulence in global capital markets and weakening commodity prices further, has exacerbated the downturn throughout the emerging world.

These challenges, while difficult to address, are at least discernible. But emerging economies may also be experiencing another common symptom of an impending crisis, one that is much tougher to detect and measure: hidden debts.

Sometimes connected with graft, hidden debts do not usually appear on balance sheets or in standard databases. Their features morph from one crisis to the next, as do the players involved in their creation. As a result, they often go undetected, until it is too late.

Indeed, it was not until after the eruption of the 1994-1995 peso crisis that the world learned that Mexico’s private banks had taken on a significant amount of currency risk through off-balance-sheet borrowing (derivatives).
Read more at https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/hidden-debt-burden-emerging-markets-by-carmen-reinhart-2015-10#EU5Q4DVCDEzO1msE.99

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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