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Tag Archives: economic cycles
Can We Afford the Future?
Can We Afford the Future? Broken road image via shutterstock. Reproduced at Resilience.org with permission. As a child of the 1950s I grew up immersed in a near-universal expectation of progress. Everybody expected a shiny new future; the only thing that might have prevented us from having it was nuclear war, and thankfully that hasn’t happened […]
The Commodity Roller Coaster
The Commodity Roller Coaster CAMBRIDGE – The global commodity super-cycle is hardly a new phenomenon. Though the details vary, primary commodity exporters tend to act out the same story, and economic outcomes tend to follow recognizable patterns. But the element of predictability in the path of the commodity-price cycle, like that in the course of […]
The Krugman Con
The Krugman Con Gold’s biggest enemy is a brilliant Nobel Prize winning economist, university professor and columnist for the New York Times. Sadly, he is also a con man. Last week Paul Krugman wrote a column for the New York Times in which he called Republican Paul Ryan, a “con man.” The Republican chairman of […]
Yes, a new crisis is coming – and here’s why
Yes, a new crisis is coming – and here’s why Shortening economic cycle means more frequent crises ‘Great Divergence’ model saw China assuming the US’ leadership role We have likely reached the limits of adjusting monetary policy States have compromised a return to growth due to debt Occupy Wall Street may been been a popular […]
The Peak in Government? A Low in Interest Rates?
The Peak in Government? A Low in Interest Rates? We have warned that capital is in a flight to quality, therefore creating the bubble in government paper. We also warned that the bond market on the long-term peaked in April/May and that we should expect a further rally in the short-end. This significant move has unfolded right […]
Bubble Bubble Where is the Bubble
Bubble Bubble Where is the Bubble It is fascinating that when I warn of anything using the word “CRASH” newspapers immediate report it as I am forecasting a crash in the stock market. This demonstrates that there is no consideration that government can also crash and burn – the perfect example of 100% confidence. Yes, if […]
How Could the Fed Protect Us from Economic Waves?
How Could the Fed Protect Us from Economic Waves? Making Waves Mainstream economists tell us that the Federal Reserve protects us from economic waves, indeed from the business cycle itself. In their view, people naturally tend to go overboard and cause wild swings in both directions. Thus, we need an economic central planner to alternatively stimulate us […]
For Heaven’s Sake: Hedge!
For Heaven’s Sake: Hedge! If you’re not positioned defensively by now, you’re nuts Q: How do you make a small fortune on Wall Street? A: Start with a large fortune. ~ old investing adage Last fall, I wrote an article titled Defying Gravity that warned of the absurd price levels that stocks and bonds had risen to. […]
Three Reasons Why US Shale Isn’t Going Anywhere
Three Reasons Why US Shale Isn’t Going Anywhere Have you ever noticed that during extreme economic cycles, when trends are roaring on the upside, or conversely crashing back down to earth, there often appears an air of extremism in news headlines? Take America’s most recent shale oil boom, and bust, for example. On the way […]
Exter’s Pyramid “In Play” (And Is Martin Armstrong Right?)
Exter’s Pyramid “in play” (and is Martin Armstrong right?) In a global debt bubble, it concerns us when the benchmark debt security still looks good value, albeit on a relative basis. In spite of this, the consensus is (once again) calling for higher US yields and FOMC “lift off.” The two-year Treasury yield has […]
Deflation v Inflation – Comprehending What Will Come | Armstrong Economics
Deflation v Inflation – Comprehending What Will Come | Armstrong Economics. QUESTION: Martin, While I clearly understand your reasoning for deflation in the US allied to a very strong dollar; does the opposite apply to those countries, like the UK and European economies where their currencies are likely going into freefall? Keep up the brilliant […]
