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Riptide in the World Economy
Riptide in the World Economy COMMENT: Marty, I think the storms are creating dangerous rip currents that just suck swimmers out to sea here in Jersey. Never hear about that in Florida. I guess that and taxes are what made you leave. LOL DK REPLY: Actually, I was caught in one when I was a teenager. My uncle […]
Great Depression to our Depression: Debt Deflation Doom Loop Lessons
Great Depression to our Depression: Debt Deflation Doom Loop Lessons We are now in the crosshairs of a mega debt deflationary bankruptcy phase. Some of our sharpest forefathers left us illustrations to better understand how this cycle operates. It helps that many both actually lived through and studied the last one fresh off it happening. […]
MacroView: The Next “Minsky Moment” Is Inevitable
MacroView: The Next “Minsky Moment” Is Inevitable In 2007, I was at a conference where Paul McCulley, who was with PIMCO at the time, was discussing the idea of a “Minsky Moment.” At that time, this idea fell on “deaf ears” as the markets, and economy, were in full swing. However, it wasn’t too long before the 2008 “Financial Crisis” brought […]
Is A “Classic End-Of-Cycle Melt-Up” Imminent?
Is A “Classic End-Of-Cycle Melt-Up” Imminent? Potential for the data deterioration theme to pause in the next quarter Phase 1 US-China deal could pivot Manufacturers from inventory destocking to restocking Key manufacturers talking about this potential on earnings calls This underappreciated catalyst could cause a temp bounce in the economic data, lift stocks and curve […]
How the Fed Wrecks the Economy Over and Over Again
How the Fed Wrecks the Economy Over and Over Again When people talk about the economy, they generally focus on government policies such as taxation and regulation. For instance, Republicans credit President Trump’s tax cuts for the seemingly booming economy and surging stock markets. Meanwhile, Democrats blame “deregulation” for the 2008 financial crisis. While government […]
Imminent Recession Risk “Doubled” – 3 Signals Sounding the Alarm
Imminent Recession Risk “Doubled” – 3 Signals Sounding the Alarm It’s been more than 10 years since the last economic recession. Since the U.S. economy generally operates in cycles, it looks like the time is drawing near for another. In fact, late last year the Dow Jones took a dive, but that was likely just an appetizer […]
My Speech in the European Parliament on the Coming Economic Collapse
MY SPEECH IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ON THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE Zero percent interest rates have created the largest bubble in human history, when it bursts it will be worse than 1929.
Washington’s Latest Match Made In Hell
Washington’s Latest Match Made In Hell Almost Predictable One of the more enticing things about financial markets is not that they’re predictable. Or that they’re not predictable. It’s that they’re almost predictable… or at least they seem they should be. For a long time people believed – and from what we read and hear, many […]
Hedge Fund CIO: “Some See Parallels Between Today And The Late-1930s, Which Led To World War II”
Hedge Fund CIO: “Some See Parallels Between Today And The Late-1930s, Which Led To World War II” The future is unknowable. Yet never has capital been so concentrated in strategies that depend on the future closely resembling the past. The most dominant of these strategies requires bonds to rally when stocks fall. For decades, both […]
A Stock Market Crash Scenario
A Stock Market Crash Scenario The one thing we can know with certainty is it won’t be easy to profit from the crash. After 8+ years of phenomenal gains, it’s pretty obvious the global stock market rally is overdue for a credit-cycle downturn, and many research services of Wall Street heavyweights are sounding the alarm about […]
Armstrong On Why Cycles Exist
Armstrong On Why Cycles Exist QUESTION: I was listening to a podcast on Bloomberg interviewing Peter Borsch who I remember you know for the two of you were together on a cycle research board and he worked for Paul Tudor Jones who handed me a copy of the Greatest Bull Market you wrote back in […]
Prepare For “Manias, Panics And Crashes”: An Ominous Warning From Bank Of America
Prepare For “Manias, Panics And Crashes”: An Ominous Warning From Bank Of America Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett is back with another controversial note overnight, reminding readers that “it ain’t a normal cycle” for one overarching reason: central banks. As Hartnett explains, the catalyst for bull in equity and credit markets since 2009 was the […]
“A Total Illusion from QE and Financial Engineering”
“A Total Illusion from QE and Financial Engineering” The 10-Year Treasury Is Less Than You Think When the Fed was created in 1914, it was set to task of controlling short-term interest rates in an attempt to iron out financial cycles. It succeeded for many years. But by avoiding the natural rebalancing (and occasional pain) from […]
Are We Headed for Another Bust?
Are We Headed for Another Bust? On Wednesday December 16, 2015, Federal Reserve Bank policymakers raised the federal funds rate target by 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent for the first time since December 2008. There is the possibility that the target could be lifted gradually to 1.25 percent by December next year. Fed policymakers have […]
