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It’s time to move on to pastures new from my Saying NO… book, as I mentioned in my last post. Seems like an opportune moment to try an ‘open comment’ post to signal the change of direction, an idea I trailed at the start of the year.

What I think emerged from that discussion was for me to suggest a broad topic and perhaps a few talking points from it and then to see where things went in the discussion. Kind of like a normal post! Back then, Ruben wrote “ I would love to hear your thoughts on AMOC shutdown, drought, more frequent extreme weather, and other growing challenges for agriculture. That might be a good topic for an open post.” Indeed I believe it would be, so let’s go with that.

In case this is unfamiliar, the ‘AMOC’ is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the major current system in the Atlantic Ocean, involving the northward flow of warm water and the southward flow of colder water which helps moderate the climate of both colder high-latitude countries and warmer low-latitude ones. Studies have suggested that present human-caused climate change could result in the shutdown of the AMOC, the consequences for both colder and warmer countries within this Atlantic system being, not to overstate the case … very bad.

A recent study that models AMOC shutdown has put the heebie-jeebies up a lot of people, including me – see Prof Stefan Rahmstorf’s summary here. Seems like we could be on course for an AMOC shutdown tipping point within the next seventy years with 95 percent confidence…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Geoengineering Is a Weapon of Mass Destruction. Solving the ‘Climate Crisis’ Is Bad for Business and Worse for Politics

March 28, 2024

Geoengineering Is a Weapon of Mass Destruction. Solving the ‘Climate Crisis’ Is Bad for Business and Worse for Politics

The article “Harvard Shuts Geoengineering Project” by Cauf Skiviers, explains Bill Gates, funder of the project, stopping Harvard from carrying out the study to preserve the climate narrative, see this.

How is this relevant?

That Bill Gates calls the shots on what should and should not go forward is nothing new. Surprising is that he was willing to finance such a study in the first place. Why?

The honest results of the research would have shown the outright “climate change” fraud humanity has been exposed to for more than three decades.

The study’s outcome would have gone in the complete opposite direction of the current western globalist plan, the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Great Reset and the UN Agenda 2030, One World Order, One World Government. Their success being largely based on the ”climate” lie.

Geoengineering serves two purposes, falsely demonstrating the Green Agenda’s fake CO2 emissions-based climate change, and – of equal importance – making weather and climate to Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD).

The outcome of the study would have been against those who want to destroy the world’s economy and social structure as we know it, to rebuild it afresh, according to the elites’ desire. See Club of Rome’s “First Global Revolution” (1991); and this.

The revelation of the now canceled Harvard research would have allowed just about anyone marginally aware of what is happening to Mother Earth’s climate, to see through the scam. It would have been difficult to avoid leaking the study’s outcome of such a hyped-up topic, like “climate change”, to the public.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The World F-‘d Around, Now It’s Finding Out

March 24, 2024

THE WORLD F-’D AROUND, NOW IT’S FINDING OUT

Well, everyone wanted to do what they wanted to do instead of what they needed to do, and this is the end result. It was inevitable. Neglecting our responsibilities on this earth only had one outcome, and it’s a living nightmare. I think it’s time we talked about the time we all F-’d around, and ended up in Find Out-ville.

MOTHER NATURE IS PISSED

Look, we are definitely not on a winning streak right now. Mother Nature is pissed off, the weather and climate is all over the place, our food supplies are being disrupted in every way imaginable, and natural disasters are occurring left and right with no end in sight. And to top it off, people are struggling economically, emotionally, and psychologically. Don’t get me started on politicians, business leaders, and the 1%. Oh did I mention that everyone I know is in debt? But the reality is, I think we only have one to blame for our situation, ourselves. After all, we allowed it to happen, stood by and watched and went right along with it.

WE WERE WRONG

Personally, I think it all started with money and the inevitable greed that it brings to literally every society that has ever used it, but that’s another story. If you’re in the Daniel Quinn camp, it all started with the agricultural revolution 10,000 years ago when we transitioned from nomadic to sedentary and started taking more than we need (Ishmael had some good points on this). What ever the start, we are most definitely racing towards the finish like a fireball on cocaine. How the hell did we end up here? Well that is simple.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Will AMOC Kill Us All?

March 18, 2024

Will AMOC Kill Us All?

Draft script:

You’ve probably heard a lot about the AMOC, which is short for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current. Based on my awkward pronunciation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current, you can understand why I prefer the acronym, AMOC. With this video, I will provide an overview of the AMOC, including how it threatens to rapidly cool a significant portion of Earth. I will then explain why I’m skeptical of this outcome.

CNN published an article on 26 July 2023 titled A crucial system of ocean currents is heading for a collapse that ‘would affect every person on the planet.’ The first two paragraphs follow:

“A vital system of ocean currents could collapse within a few decades if the world continues to pump out planet-heating pollution, scientists are warning – an event that would be catastrophic for global weather and ‘affect every person on the planet.’”

“A new study published Tuesday in the journal Nature found that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current – of which the Gulf Stream in a part – could collapse around the middle of the century, or even as early as 2025.”

The paper was published in Nature Communications, not Nature. But I digress.

It is no exaggeration to claim that the AMOC is critical to the continued retention of habitat for life on Earth. It is a complex tangle of currents that, among other things, works like a giant conveyor belt that transports warm water from the tropics toward the North Atlantic. At this point, the water cools and becomes saltier. It therefore sinks deep into the ocean before spreading south. Importantly, the AMOC contributes to the regulation of global weather patterns. Its collapse would trigger extreme winters and rising sea levels in western Europe and the northeastern United States. Further from home, a collapsed AMOC would shift the timing and magnitude of the tropical monsoon.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Advances and challenges in understanding compound weather and climate extremes

March 16, 2024

Advances and challenges in understanding compound weather and climate extremes

storm — Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

In the context of global warming, many extremes, such as heat waves, heavy precipitation, and droughts, have become increasingly frequent and intense, as expected theoretically. Somewhat unexpectedly, these extremes have also exhibited tightened linkage in both time and space, constituting compound weather and climate extremes with larger impacts.

During the past decade, compound events received considerable attention, with much progress in event typology, impacts, changes and risks already made.

A study led by Prof. Zengchao Hao (College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University) and Prof. Yang Chen (State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences) explores more than a dozen recent compound events. The paper is published in the journal Science China Earth Sciences.

By synthesizing nearly 350 peer-reviewed papers, the authors thoroughly documented definitions and impacts, physical mechanisms, and historical/future changes as well as attribution evidence with respect to 13 reported and relatively well-studied compound events. Some of these events are specific to East Asian monsoonal regions.

They also pointed out deficiencies and gaps in existing studies on each of these events. At the end of the review, they attempted to identify data and methodological challenges common to the field and came up with outlooks on the future directions of the emerging topic.

More specifically, they laid out their review by order of definition, mechanisms, changes, and attribution. For each of the reviewed events, the authors adopted an impact-centric approach to introduce the definition by illustrating how the fashion of compounding aggregated and amplified impacts. Distinct from previous reviews on some types of compound events focusing largely on long-term changes, the new review assigned a large volume of space to the underlying physical processes, especially from the dynamic (including monsoon dynamics) and multi-sphere interactive perspectives.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Climate Disaster Is Here—and the State Will Never Save Us

November 16, 2023

Climate Disaster Is Here—and the State Will Never Save Us

“States demonstrate, again and again, that not only do they not protect the Earth, they facilitate its destruction.” Dean Spade on the promise of speculative fiction and a review of The Ministry for the Future and The Deluge.

The Isle de Jean Charles in Louisiana was once 22,000 acres of bayous. Now, less than 2% of it is still above water. In 2016, residents left because of the effects of climate change in what was labeled the “first federally recognized climate-displaced population” in the United States.PHOTO BY CÉCILE CLOCHERET / AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

Global temperatures have reached new record highs, flooding and wildfires reaped widespread destruction this summer, and rainwater was declared, for the first time, unfit for human consumption around the globe. Amid these crises, I delved into two novels portraying our current and developing ecological and societal crises: The Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson and The Deluge by Stephen Markley.

Reading fiction about ecological crisis and societal collapse — including heavily researched books like Deluge (Simon & Schuster, 2023) and Ministry (Hachette, 2020) that aim to realistically paint future scenarios, as well as young adult stories (often with elements of magic or science fiction) — can be useful for combating the persistent culture of denial of current conditions. Seeing how an author imagines emerging conditions also helps me grapple with and digest the difficult-to-comprehend onslaught of daily news.

Even those of us who know that climate change is already killing and displacing tens of millions of people (let alone other species) annually are mostly missing the scale of the impending global collapse.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

On Being Reasonable

October 4, 2023

On Being Reasonable

Scientists have been in the news of late fretting that their projections about the onset of disasters caused by a warming climate may have been off the mark. It appears that Mother Nature has pushed the “fast forward” button and we are all paddling, choking, and sizzling much sooner than sober science had led us to expect. We will be hard-pressed to devise a plan of action commensurate with the trouble we are in if we come at that task wielding flawed assumptions.

Events cannot speak of their own accord but if they could recent ones would surely be telling us that any forecasts based on conditions prevailing even until yesterday are not worth much. We have entered a new phase in the life of our planet and, by all appearances, do not have a clue about what that circumstance demands of us as inhabitants.

I am not a scientist, but I did recently encounter a related case of cluelessness that I thought I might try to diagnose. Writing in The New Yorker (07/24/2023), Louis Menand pauses at the end of an essay on the rise and fall of neoliberalism to take stock of its achievements and failings. On the positive side, he claims that globalization has lifted a billion people out of poverty, lowered the cost of many household items, turned formerly marginal nations into “economic players,” and broken the monopoly held by First World powers on modern technology. On the debit side, he notes a deepening “trend towards monopoly” in every major industry and a disturbing increase in inequality. This latter, he believes, fouls the workings of democracy and thus poses a threat to civic order.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Climate change is redrawing the disaster map

August 31, 2023

Climate change is redrawing the disaster map

From tropical storms to wildfires, climate disasters aren’t confined to the places we’re used to seeing them.

cars and makeshift housing structures poke out of a big pool of water in the desert — *Vehicles and housing structures are partially submerged after Tropical Storm Hilary flooded a community of unhoused people on August 21st, 2023, in Cathedral City, California.*

Disasters have no borders, and a summer of unexpected catastrophe across the US shows it. California is notorious for drought and fire, not tropical storms like Hilary that barreled over Los Angeles this week. The East Coast expects hurricanes, not the pollution nightmare triggered by smoke that drifted in from blazes hundreds of miles away. Hawaii’s native greenery isn’t supposed to burn, and yet fires engulfed Maui.

Climate change is sending new calamities to new places — a phenomenon that can be observed not just in the US but all over the world. It’s piling disaster upon disaster on communities figuring out how to adapt to these new realities. Often, they’re faced with some new crisis while still recovering from a previous one.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

‘We are damned fools’: scientist who sounded climate alarm in 80s warns of worse to come

August 31, 2023

‘We are damned fools’: scientist who sounded climate alarm in 80s warns of worse to come

James Hansen, who testified to Congress on global heating in 1988, says world is approaching a ‘new climate frontier’

The world is shifting towards a superheated climate not seen in the past 1m years, prior to human existence, because “we are damned fools” for not acting upon warnings over the climate crisis, according to James Hansen, the US scientist who alerted the world to the greenhouse effect in the 1980s.

Hansen, whose testimony to the US Senate in 1988 is cited as the first high-profile revelation of global heating, warned in a statement with two other scientists that the world was moving towards a “new climate frontier” with temperatures higher than at any point over the past million years, bringing impacts such as stronger storms, heatwaves and droughts.

The world has already warmed by about 1.2C since mass industrialization, causing a 20% chance of having the sort of extreme summer temperatures currently seen in many parts of the northern hemisphere, up from a 1% chance 50 years ago, Hansen said.

“There’s a lot more in the pipeline, unless we reduce the greenhouse gas amounts,” Hansen, who is 82, told the Guardian. “These superstorms are a taste of the storms of my grandchildren. We are headed wittingly into the new reality – we knew it was coming.”

Hansen was a Nasa climate scientist when he warned lawmakers of growing global heating and has since taken part in protests alongside activists to decry the lack of action to reduce planet-heating emissions in the decades since.

He said the record heatwaves that have roiled the US, Europe, China and elsewhere in recent weeks have heightened “a sense of disappointment that we scientists did not communicate more clearly and that we did not elect leaders capable of a more intelligent response”.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

With 1.5°C Goal ‘Currently Not Plausible,’ Study Calls for Focus on Deep Social Change

February 9, 2023

Scientists at the University of Hamburg in Germany argued Wednesday that meeting the 2015 Paris climate agreement’s goal of limiting planetary heating to 1.5°C is “currently not plausible”—but warned that despairing over climate “tipping points” risks taking attention away from “the best hope for shaping a positive climate future… the ability of society to make fundamental changes.”

The Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook assessed the planetary impacts of several “physical processes that are frequently discussed as tipping points.” These include the melting of sea ice in the Arctic and glaciers at the North and South Poles; the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the system of ocean currents that carries warm water upward into the North Atlantic; and “dieback” in the Amazon rainforest, in which rising temperatures would dry out trees and eventually change the forest landscape into a savanna, releasing billions of tons of stored carbon.

Those scenarios “are serious developments,” said researchers at the university, but the melting of ice “will have very little influence on the global temperature until 2050.” The weakening of AMOC and Amazon dieback will have a “moderately” greater influence on global temperatures.

“Human agency has a large potential to shape the way climate futures will evolve.”

“By extrapolating current trends,” reads the study, “permafrost thaw and Amazon Forest dieback are expected to release somewhat more than one year’s worth of today’s anthropogenic CO2 emissions between now and 2050. Thus, the contributions of these two processes to the remaining carbon budget are small…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

“Distasteful Masterclass In Hypocrisy”: Elites Swarm Davos In Private Jets To Discuss Climate Crisis

January 16, 2023

“Distasteful Masterclass In Hypocrisy”: Elites Swarm Davos In Private Jets To Discuss Climate Crisis

The annual conference of the World Economic Forum begins today in Davos, Switzerland. Global elites landed in luxurious private jets over the last few days in airports around Davos to discuss important global challenges, such as climate change, behind closed doors.

“The rich and powerful are swarming to Davos to discuss climate and inequality behind closed doors using the most unequal and polluting form of transport: private jets,” Klara Maria Schenk, transport campaigner for Greenpeace’s European mobility campaign, told news website Politics.co.uk.

Greenpeace International published a new report that showed 1,040 private jets flew in and out of airports around Davos for last year’s meeting, causing CO2 emissions from private jets to increase four times more versus a weekly average.

“Given that 80% of the world’s population has never even flown, but suffers from the consequences of climate-damaging aviation emissions, and that the WEF claims to be committed to the 1.5°C Paris Climate Target, this annual private jet bonanza is a distasteful masterclass in hypocrisy. Private jets must be consigned to history if we are to have a green, just and safe future for all. So-called world leaders must lead by example and ban private jets and useless short-haul flights,” added Schenk.

WEF hopes to tackle what they believe is a climate crisis plaguing the world despite most attendees arriving by private jets, which are the most polluting mode of transport per passenger

And motorcades of WEF attendees were spotted in gas-guzzling SUVs and high-end sedans.

Meanwhile, climate protesters spent Monday morning blocking at least one airport used by the super-rich.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Wrong Again: 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions

December 31, 2022

Wrong Again: 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions

Photo Credit: Getty

Thanks go to Tony Heller, who first collected many of these news clips and posted them on RealClimateScience.

SUMMARY

Modern doomsayers have been predicting climate and environmental disaster since the 1960s. They continue to do so today.

None of the apocalyptic predictions with due dates as of today have come true.

What follows is a collection of notably wild predictions from notable people in government and science.

More than merely spotlighting the failed predictions, this collection shows that the makers of failed apocalyptic predictions often are individuals holding respected positions in government and science.

While such predictions have been and continue to be enthusiastically reported by a media eager for sensational headlines, the failures are typically not revisited.

1967: ‘Dire famine by 1975.’

Source: Salt Lake Tribune, November 17, 1967

1969: ‘Everyone will disappear in a cloud of blue steam by 1989.’

Source: New York Times, August 10 1969

1970: Ice age by 2000

Source: Boston Globe, April 16, 1970

1970: ‘America subject to water rationing by 1974 and food rationing by 1980.’

Source: Redlands Daily Facts, October 6, 1970

1971: ‘New Ice Age Coming’

Source: Washington Post, July 9, 1971

1972: New ice age by 2070

Source: NOAA, October 2015

1974: ‘New Ice Age Coming Fast’

Source: The Guardian, January 29, 1974

1974: ‘Another Ice Age?’

Source: TIME, June 24, 1974

1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life’

But no such ‘great peril to life’ has been observed as the so-called ‘ozone hole’ remains:

Sources: Headline

NASA Data | Graph

1976: ‘The Cooling’

Source: New York Times Book Review, July 18, 1976

1980: ‘Acid Rain Kills Life in Lakes’

Noblesville Ledger (Noblesville, IN) April 9, 1980

But 10 years later, the US government program formed to study acid rain concluded:

Associated Press, September 6, 1990

1978: ‘No End in Sight’ to 30-Year Cooling Trend

Source: New York Times, January 5, 1978

But according to NASA satellite data there is a slight warming trend since 1979.

Source: DrRoySpencer.com

1988: James Hansen forecasts increase regional drought in 1990s

Politics, climate conspire as Tigris and Euphrates dwindle

November 21, 2022

A fisherman walks across a dry patch of land in the marshes of southern Iraq which has suffered dire consequences from back to back drought and rising salinity levels, in Dhi Qar province, Iraq, Friday Sept. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Anmar Khalil)

Politics, climate conspire as Tigris and Euphrates dwindle

DAWWAYAH, Iraq and ILISU DAM, Turkey (AP) — Next year, the water will come. The pipes have been laid to Ata Yigit’s sprawling farm in Turkey’s southeast connecting it to a dam on the Euphrates River. A dream, soon to become a reality, he says.

He’s already grown a small corn patch on some of the water. The golden stalks are tall and abundant. “The kernels are big,” he says, proudly. Soon he’ll be able to water all his fields.

Over 1,000 kilometers (625 miles) downstream in southern Iraq, nothing grows anymore in Obeid Hafez’s wheat farm. The water stopped coming a year ago, the 95-year-old said, straining to speak.

“The last time we planted the seed, it went green, then suddenly it died,” he said.

Water levels in the Chibayish marshes of southern Iraq are declining and fishermen say certain water-ways are no longer accessible by boat, in Dhi Qar province, Iraq, Sept. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Anmal Khalil)

The starkly different realities are playing out along the length of the Tigris-Euphrates river basin, one of the world’s most vulnerable watersheds. River flows have fallen by 40% in the past four decades as the states along its length — Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq — pursue rapid, unilateral development of the waters’ use.

The drop is projected to worsen as temperatures rise from climate change. Both Turkey and Iraq, the two biggest consumers, acknowledge they must cooperate to preserve the river system that some 60 million people rely on to sustain their lives.

But political failures and intransigence conspire to prevent a deal sharing the rivers.

The Associated Press conducted more than a dozen interviews in both countries, from top water envoys and senior officials to local farmers, and gained exclusive visits to controversial dam projects…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Growing concern over unseasonal warm spell in Europe

November 1, 2022

Growing concern over unseasonal warm spell in Europe

Warm October weather has seen many flock to the beach -- such as here at Hossegor, southwestern France -- but environmentalists see more evidence of climate change — Warm October weather has seen many flock to the beach — such as here at Hossegor, southwestern France — but environmentalists see more evidence of climate change GAIZKA IROZ AFP

Madrid (AFP) – October morning temperatures topping 30 Celsius (86 Fahrenheit) in Spain may have brought cheer to the tourists, but they are provoking concern among environmentalists.

The mercury has been rising well above the norm across vast swathes of Europe, from Spain to as far north as Sweden.

After a summer marked by repeated heatwaves across much of the continent, Europe is experiencing exceptional temperatures even as it heads into the start of autumn — a sign of accelerating climate change.

“The month has not yet ended but we can already say practically without fear of contradiction that it will be the hottest (in Spain) since 1961,” when records began to be collated, said Ruben del Campo of Spain’s meteorological service Aemet.

If extrapolated data from historical reconstructions is taken into account, he added, this past month will have been Spain’s warmest October for fully a century.

“One, two days above 30 degrees is normal” for Spain, said del Campo. “But so many days, no. These are summer temperatures, whereas we are already heading into autumn.”

On Friday morning, the northern resort of San Sebastian saw the temperature hit 30.3 Celsius at 8:30 am (0630 GMT) — well above the seasonal average.

With forest fires declared in recent days in the Basque region, of which San Sebastian is a part, authorities have banned barbecues and fireworks to keep risks to a minimum.

The unseasonal warm spell has brought a new word into the Spanish lexicon — “verono” — an amalgam of verano (summer) and otono (autumn).

And it has left del Campo highlighting a “notable acceleration” in climate change over the past decade, exposing Spain to increasing creeping desertification.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

UCSB Scientists See the End of ‘Normal’ Climate

October 3, 2022

UCSB Scientists See the End of ‘Normal’ Climate

Researcher Asks: ‘What Happens If You Know the Drought Is Never Going to End?’

Credit: Courtesy

In August, Governor Gavin Newsom and officials from the Department of Water Resources released a new Water Supply Strategy, saying that because of California’s “hotter, drier climate,” the state needed to find at least 10 percent more water to supply its farms, cities, and industry by 2040.

“We are experiencing extreme, sustained drought conditions in California and across the American West caused by hotter, drier weather,” states the plan. “Our warming climate means that a greater share of the rain and snowfall we receive will be absorbed by dry soils, consumed by thirsty plants, and evaporated into the air.”

The plan says that steadily rising temperatures will overcome even a year or two of better-than-average or average rainfall in Southern California — as in 2018 and 2019 — and will not close what state officials call an “evaporative gap” that threatens California’s water supply.

This new state plan follows the climate science on “aridification.” That’s the scientific term for the “drying trend” that young climate scientist Samantha Stevenson of UCSB’s Bren School of Environmental Science and Engineering identified this year in an extensive global study of the 21st-century hydroclimate.

Stevenson said that she wanted to provoke new thinking about what we call drought.

“Drought is already normal in much of the western United States and other parts of the world, such as western Europe,” Stevenson said. “Part of the reason I wrote the paper was to try to say that we need to think about what we mean when we say ‘drought,’ because we’ve been using these definitions based on expectations from 40 years ago. What happens if you know the drought is never going to end?”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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