Canada Housing, Office Market Mauled by Oil, Layoffs – but Vancouver Bubble Still Soars
Back in December, the Bank of Canada said home prices were overvalued by as much as 30% and posed an “elevated” risk to the Canadian financial system. In January, Deutsche Bank found that Canada’s housing market was, more realistically, 63% overvalued.
In greater Vancouver, the “benchmark” price of all types of homes (detached, townhouse, and apartment) in March rose 7.2% from a year ago to C$660,700, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. Detached homes jumped 11.2% to C$1.05 million; and in Vancouver West, 12.3% to a breathtaking C$2.4 million.
Those are the Board’s “benchmark” prices. The average price for detached homes in Vancouver soared 16% from a year ago, surpassing $1.4 million for the first time. Transactions skyrocketed 54%; supply plunged 15%. Prices were doped by low interest rates, limited supply, and foreign investors. This market is hot.
But the oil patch of Canada is skidding into serious trouble.
“The recent international price war over oil has demonstrated the risks and dangers of relying on energy revenue to fund public services,” Alberta’s government explained on Thursday, as it presented a C$43.4 billion budget for fiscal 2015/2016. It projects arevenue decline of C$5.6 billion!
It’s “simply irresponsible” to rely on unstable oil revenues “to fund health, education, and other vital public services that Albertans depend upon,” the government said.
And things would change. Energy revenue would from now on – if they ever return to prior levels – be treated as “windfall” that would at least in part go into savings. And there would be a slew of new taxes and fees, such as a bump in gasoline taxes, steeper income taxes for high-income earners, and a new health-care levy. With these measures, the government hopes to balance the budget three years from now.
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