Not Just The Franc Showing Euro Concerns | Alhambra Investment Partners – We Are Different..
With Europe reporting GDP, reactions have been somewhat varied. In some places, it was taken as not as bad as feared, while others were downright cheered by a lack of total collapse, as if that is now the standard for economic progress. Since GDP tends to be noisy in the short run, the major components, the economic base, continues to show anything but more of the same. There was nothing, to my mind, in the GDP report that indicated an inflection away from stagnation or slight decline. That is perfectly in-line with the trend that has unfortunately developed since midyear, pushing the ECB toward outward desperation.
The most striking aspect of the European economy post-2007 has been lower cycle peaks at every juncture. In industrial production and trade, the “recovery” after the initial blast of the Great Recession never came close to matching pre-crisis levels. Now after another “cycle”, the peak is yet again below this time even 2011. What we see, then, is no recovery at all but rather an ebb and flow in an otherwise downward direction toward full-scale depression.
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